Elements Mafia 74 - by skyironsword

[TheonlyrealBeef]

It's not about whether or not no lynch is a good idea. Did I say it was a bad idea? It's about the fact that you advocate no lynch this game with no leading wagons, when you previously stated no lynch was a bad idea, only agreeing in that specific scenario you pointed out where you were a leading wagon.

No lynch, are u kidding me? only good time to no lynch is when im one of the leading vote tallys.

So you're claiming this was totally not you? And that this totally does not imply you think no lynch is a terrible idea?

haha. that was me being sad that ill have to go more days without anyone in dead pad. Context is important and every game is different.

You're right. Every game is different, you never know when someone suddenly rolls mafia and changes opinion.

[shockcannon]

Looks like everyone is getting exposed now. Guess who's always been consistent though every game? When town has no information and has the ability to gain a lot more information the next night, no lynch increases the player count to increase the odds of getting that information you need. Just because lynch is town's greatest power for killing mafia, doesn't mean you always have to use it. If done wrong, it actually speeds up the game for mafia. The only time mafia doesn't want a lynch to happen is when one of their members is at risk of being voted up or if they know they control most of the important information roles.


Think about if you're mafia. Would you rather have a no lynch or have town kill off one of their own members on day 1 when having someone die day 1 says pretty much nothing about anyone else? Like imagine if Calindu or Masterwalks is town. Mafia is probably hoping that one of them gets offed today because it gives us basically 0 information about anyone else. That's a much preferred outcome for mafia than a no lynch, which keeps around those players who could gain real, helpful information on a following night, or who maybe have a killing role or something that could mess them up.

[moehrpi]

SOLVING THE GAME THROUGH LOGIC
- We waste all day talking about Rita, which is probably not helpful at all for town (unless you're willing to stop casting my opinions aside because of my character and realize that the things I'm writing in both these spoilers are actually quite insightful and go much deeper into the game than any of you are doing)

- Depending on which roles town got, could be very easy to confirm who the actual Rita is the next night, and if it's not shock or MW, then it might lead to an insta lynch of the real Rita (HOWEVER, if they have Cocolia, have certain info roles themselves, or can role block, then they might be willing to go forth with this planning anyways, knowing they can get away with it while reaping the upside mentioned above.)

Four posts and I am already tilted.

That mafia plan is way to intricate to commit that many resources into it.

FWIW, mafia would use Rita N1 to find cop. kae did not mention being blocked, too.

@andre

There are 3 mafia and disrupting any of them is always good. There are arguably 4 useful town info roles that Rita can negatively disrupt. So roughly 50/50 odds of doing good vs. doing bad. Another key point is that it's not a role block, but a redirect. Using Rita just the first night only, isn't that bad even if it hits a cop, because then the cop knows you're safe. Not as good as finding a mafia, but also not the same as straight up role blocking. Additionally, hitting core of death or core of void with Rita is pretty great return and potentially game winning. Sure, Rita can redirect a couple other arguably relevant roles, but most of those redirects will have 0 net change in outcome if Rita is just used N0.


And I'm talking about Rita being used N0, not every night. Rita should not be used every night unless there is a clear target, but I'm talking about the benefits or Rita using her ability N0. The main goal is to get confirmed as town. The fact that there is as much upside as downside to using the role N0 is what justifies it being used N0 to try to get a free confirm.

That's fucking terrible.

Another word for kae: I did absolutely say DC, Oa and I are mafia. But that's not something I, or anyone else, would say unironically. As mafia or town alike. Again, I said Oa is confirmed town and obviously every post I make I try to send out town vibes. That last sentence was just to acknowledge the irony that as scum I would also try hard to make my buddies look town which coincided with www3's roll.


I will be online for the next ~3 hours and maybe for EOD. Placing my not so confident vote now on MW. He has a low enough post count and little substance in his posts. Still a shot in the dark.


dawn to dusk (2) - rob77dp, killsdazombies
moehrpi (1) - kaempfer13
shockcannon (1) - Linkcat
DoubleCapitals (1) - worldwideweb3
kaempfer13 (1) - MasterWalks
No Lynch (1) - shockcannon
Calindu (1) - Submachine
MasterWalks (3) - PlayerOa, DoubleCapitals, moehrpi
worldwideweb3 (2) -  iancudorinmarian, TheonlyrealBeef

[DoubleCapitals]

This is the part where we wait for Cal and MW to show up and try to cover their asses. If you're 'those players who could gain real, helpful information' then you haven't done your job by getting voted up this early, whether by saying something dumb, being awol enough to be considered lhf, etc. I think someone already mirrored this sentiment, and I'll go dig this up.

Look at w3, taking shit from Oa, ian and Beef. Substantiated by a real risk of the lynch he has to speak up and defend himself, think that'll happen on NL?

[Linkcat]

Also, Linkcat can you include a gif/sass in every comment please. I would appreciate it. Thanks <3

[DoubleCapitals]

That mafia plan is way to intricate to commit that many resources into it.

FWIW, mafia would use Rita N1 to find cop. kae did not mention being blocked, too.

I'd totally 1 for 1 Durandal for a mafia member though, why would mafia want to make that trade?

[kaempfer13]

ok, that explains it

dawn to dusk (2) - rob77dp, killsdazombies
shockcannon (1) - Linkcat
DoubleCapitals (1) - worldwideweb3
kaempfer13 (1) - MasterWalks
No Lynch (1) - shockcannon
Calindu (1) - Submachine
MasterWalks (3) - PlayerOa, DoubleCapitals, moehrpi
worldwideweb3 (2) -  iancudorinmarian, TheonlyrealBeef

just unvoting for now

i think the only (weak) scumlead i have now is rob

will reread the thread and then make my decision

[DoubleCapitals]

moe DC OA are mafia according to my rolls. Infact, as you can see, DC and OA came in both of my rolls :angry:

23:37:03] ‹worldwideweb3› (3d18) 15 + 4 + 15 = 34 ...!!
[23:37:07] ‹worldwideweb3› ew
[23:37:10] ‹worldwideweb3› (3d18) 18 + 4 + 15 = 37 ...✗

MasterWalks (3) - PlayerOa, DoubleCapitals, moehrpi

Coincidence?

[worldwideweb3]

moe DC OA are mafia according to my rolls. Infact, as you can see, DC and OA came in both of my rolls :angry:

23:37:03] ‹worldwideweb3› (3d18) 15 + 4 + 15 = 34 ...!!
[23:37:07] ‹worldwideweb3› ew
[23:37:10] ‹worldwideweb3› (3d18) 18 + 4 + 15 = 37 ...✗

MasterWalks (3) - PlayerOa, DoubleCapitals, moehrpi

Coincidence?

S O L V E D G A M E

[Calindu]

MW and ian are on the upper limit of low posters, plus I believe they will only get more active as time progresses.
So I am currently deciding between Calindu and dawn. They both have only 2 posts with barely any content other than theorizing about Rita and stating neutral facts.

Haha, again deciding the lynch based on number of posts/activity level, maybe at some point it will be a lesson that this doesn't really work and you will stop doing this every single mafia.

I haven't really managed to form a scumread about anyone yet, though there are some people I slightly townread, mainly kae, TorB, Oa and shock.

kae - Seems to be making constant plans and tries to read players, I don't think he would accuse moe that hard if he were mafia
TorB - I haven't seen him play as mafia yet, but his play seems consistent to the previous mafias
Oa - This is mainly because of the Durandal check on him, though it might be completely wrong, really
shock - I disagree with the no lynch plan, since I still believe in a lynch D1, but he argues it well and plays as usual

This is the part where we wait for Cal and MW to show up and try to cover their asses. If you're 'those players who could gain real, helpful information' then you haven't done your job by getting voted up this early, whether by saying something dumb, being awol enough to be considered lhf, etc. I think someone already mirrored this sentiment, and I'll go dig this up.

Look at w3, taking shit from Oa, ian and Beef. Substantiated by a real risk of the lynch he has to speak up and defend himself, think that'll happen on NL?

Sorry I haven't done my job by being inactive N0 and half of D1, but I'll play like usual and won't put more time into it. Here's a vote on you for the time being.

dawn to dusk (2) - rob77dp, killsdazombies
shockcannon (1) - Linkcat
DoubleCapitals (2) - worldwideweb3, Calindu
kaempfer13 (1) - MasterWalks
No Lynch (1) - shockcannon
Calindu (1) - Submachine
MasterWalks (3) - PlayerOa, DoubleCapitals, moehrpi
worldwideweb3 (2) -  iancudorinmarian, TheonlyrealBeef

[kaempfer13]

Look at w3, taking shit from Oa, ian and Beef. Substantiated by a real risk of the lynch he has to speak up and defend himself, think that'll happen on NL?

I dont understand what conclusion you want us to derive from that.

[Submachine]

Look at w3, taking shit from Oa, ian and Beef. Substantiated by a real risk of the lynch he has to speak up and defend himself, think that'll happen on NL?

I dont understand what conclusion you want us to derive from that.

The morale I get from that sentence is that a No Lynch does not drive people to defend themselves. Is that not correct?

I haven't really managed to form a scumread about anyone yet, though there are some people I slightly townread, mainly kae, TorB, Oa and shock.

kae - Seems to be making constant plans and tries to read players, I don't think he would accuse moe that hard if he were mafia
TorB - I haven't seen him play as mafia yet, but his play seems consistent to the previous mafias
Oa - This is mainly because of the Durandal check on him, though it might be completely wrong, really
shock - I disagree with the no lynch plan, since I still believe in a lynch D1, but he argues it well and plays as usual

Fair post from Calindu. Sure, it doesn't give much, but I share his views on his four townreads, and putting out FOUR townreads is more solving than what the average player has done in this game.

Vote change coming soon.