Elements Mafia 74 - by skyironsword

[DoubleCapitals]

moe DC OA are mafia according to my rolls. Infact, as you can see, DC and OA came in both of my rolls :angry:

23:37:03] ‹worldwideweb3› (3d18) 15 + 4 + 15 = 34 ...!!
[23:37:07] ‹worldwideweb3› ew
[23:37:10] ‹worldwideweb3› (3d18) 18 + 4 + 15 = 37 ...✗

Oh, muh, gawd. You suck.

dawn to dusk (2) - TheonlyrealBeef, rob77dp
moehrpi (1) - kaempfer13
shockcannon (1) - Linkcat
Linkcat (1) - worldwideweb3
worldwideweb3 (1) - DoubleCapitals

[MasterWalks]

dawn to dusk (2) - TheonlyrealBeef, rob77dp
moehrpi (1) - kaempfer13
shockcannon (1) - Linkcat, MasterWalks
Linkcat (1) - worldwideweb3
worldwideweb3 (1) - DoubleCapitals


Voting shock since i have no scum reads and shock is always scum.

Y'all are hella mean btw

[Naii_the_Baf]

dawn to dusk (3) - TheonlyrealBeef, rob77dp, Naii_the_Baf
moehrpi (1) - kaempfer13
shockcannon (2) - Linkcat, MasterWalks
Linkcat (1) - worldwideweb3
worldwideweb3 (1) - DoubleCapitals



Speeeeak

[shockcannon]

I know you all disagree, but I'm going to keep saying this because maybe 5 games down the road someone will actually listen. No lynch is a viable strategy, and can at times be more winning than lynching based off principle. This is even more true this game, where we have more potential roles that can find mafia and we have roles that can stop the NK. We also, imo, have much more useful information roles that can work together. A random lynch day 1 is almost certainly going to kill a town, unless someone has information to share, or if a mafia slips up really, REALLY badly. I don't see either of those happening yet. Any who thinks you can get a read off of like 3 posts day 1 that aren't slip ups is just lying to themselves.

So unless someone has information to share, we gain a lot by skipping this lynch for the following reasons:

1.) random lynch day 1 is almost always killing a town
2.) random lynch could remove a very useful role that we need
3.) putting someone up for lynch could force a role claim. What if the cop is the one with the most votes towards the end of day and has to reveal now?
3.) keeping more targets alive gives more cover for the useful roles to get the information they need before dying
4.) we have more time to make informed decisions, especially regarding how to use roles since this version of mafia is quite drastically different than previous ones
5.) I personally think day 1 lynch vote patterns are almost always meaningless, unless we get really lucky and find a way to get significant votes on a mafia, forcing them to pull some maneuvers. The odds of this are below 50/50 though (don't BS me with "reads"), and most of the time all we end up with is a dead town, a lost role, and close to zero new info.

[rob77dp]

DC-

If you decide to get off your OMGUS vote then there are two competing wagons forming... Care for one of them?

shock-
Your advocacy for no vote deserves a rebuttal post that should be typed on a keyboard not a phone... Such rebuttal coming soon. Your started belief in no Lynch as a viable strategy (it isn't) would hold some (mL maybe) water if you followed your own advice and voted no lynch.

[Coffeeditto]

1.) random lynch day 1 is almost always killing a town
We have a 1/5 chance of hitting the mafia, and we can afford a mislynch here. If it's an important role, they can claim or otherwise defend themselves with information.
2.) random lynch could remove a very useful role that we need
See above.
3.) putting someone up for lynch could force a role claim. What if the cop is the one with the most votes towards the end of day and has to reveal now?
We switch off of them, get information, and have Hua or Raiden protect them that night.
3.) keeping more targets alive gives more cover for the useful roles to get the information they need before dying
Keeping more Herrscher roles alive gives more cover for the Herrscher to get the information and kills they need before dying.
4.) we have more time to make informed decisions, especially regarding how to use roles since this version of mafia is quite drastically different than previous ones
We can make more informed decisions based off of the information we get from the lynch today. Not lynching is a day wasted not gathering information.
5.) I personally think day 1 lynch vote patterns are almost always meaningless, unless we get really lucky and find a way to get significant votes on a mafia, forcing them to pull some maneuvers. The odds of this are below 50/50 though (don't BS me with "reads"), and most of the time all we end up with is a dead town, a lost role, and close to zero new info.
The odds are 1/5. Vote patterns are probably meaningless, that's true, but that's not a valid reason to not lynch today.

[DoubleCapitals]

DC-

If you decide to get off your OMGUS vote then there are two competing wagons forming... Care for one of them?

shock-
Your advocacy for no vote deserves a rebuttal post that should be typed on a keyboard not a phone... Such rebuttal coming soon. Your started belief in no Lynch as a viable strategy (it isn't) would hold some (mL maybe) water if you followed your own advice and voted no lynch.

2 wagons for policy lynches? Probably shock, not because he's shock but because I'll vote up whoever asks to NL always. Are you telling me to move my vote though?

[rob77dp]

I know you all disagree, but I'm going to keep saying this because maybe 5 games down the road someone will actually listen. No lynch is a viable strategy, and can at times be more winning than lynching based off principle. This is even more true this game, where we have more potential roles that can find mafia and we have roles that can stop the NK. We also, imo, have much more useful information roles that can work together. A random lynch day 1 is almost certainly going to kill a town, unless someone has information to share, or if a mafia slips up really, REALLY badly. I don't see either of those happening yet. Any who thinks you can get a read off of like 3 posts day 1 that aren't slip ups is just lying to themselves.

So unless someone has information to share, we gain a lot by skipping this lynch for the following reasons:

1.) random lynch day 1 is almost always killing a town This is not much different than most any other day - unless you think town has rolled most of the killing roles then the town killing power is really the lynch. Not using it is holstering a chance to kill the enemy.
2.) random lynch could remove a very useful role that we need It isn't random. Also, it could remove a very anti-town mafia role.
3.) putting someone up for lynch could force a role claim. What if the cop is the one with the most votes towards the end of day and has to reveal now? Then the cop should gett gud and do things that convince people not to vote them and to instead vote someone scummy. Also, you seem to be forgetting that the cop roles this setup could also be scum-sided or not present (obviously Durandal is present given the Oa announcement at start of Day).
3.) keeping more targets alive gives more cover for the useful roles to get the information they need before dying So you are suggesting to just sit pat and try to have nobody die while town uses roles to find all the scum and win 15-0? I just cannot agree that No Lynch is viable/right strategy here.
4.) we have more time to make informed decisions, especially regarding how to use roles since this version of mafia is quite drastically different than previous ones We are almost assured at least 5 day phases, probably 6 or 7, even without hitting many scum - how long do you think roles need? As much killing power as it looks like the game has... town kills by lynching (hint: scum kills by night).
5.) I personally think day 1 lynch vote patterns are almost always meaningless, unless we get really lucky and find a way to get significant votes on a mafia, forcing them to pull some maneuvers. The odds of this are below 50/50 though (don't BS me with "reads"), and most of the time all we end up with is a dead town, a lost role, and close to zero new info. Reading other players is really a thing. Now, I won't reach so far as to claim that I know everyone can do it -- there is a bit of touch and ability to pay attention to detail required that not all have. Also, heads up but the only time it can be 50/50 odds is at parity when town loses. A dead mafia is preferred of course but things are learned to varying degrees by ANY death while aiming to kill scum.

[andretimpa]

@shock
Taking last game for example, the NL in day 1 ended up causing a lot of unnecessary confusion, just because we couldn't get a clear read of what the votes meant.

People will try to analyse vote patterns regardless, so it's best to have a clearer idea of what those patterns mean (even if it's to decide there's nothing there).

[rob77dp]

DC-

If you decide to get off your OMGUS vote then there are two competing wagons forming... Care for one of them?

shock-
Your advocacy for no vote deserves a rebuttal post that should be typed on a keyboard not a phone... Such rebuttal coming soon. Your started belief in no Lynch as a viable strategy (it isn't) would hold some (mL maybe) water if you followed your own advice and voted no lynch.

2 wagons for policy lynches? Probably shock, not because he's shock but because I'll vote up whoever asks to NL always. Are you telling me to move my vote though?

Just prodding you, I suppose... but voting www right now seems a waste if you're not going to push him or sus him at all, right?

[Coffeeditto]

dumb idea I remembered from Town of Salem
Raiden can protect away cop-type roles from the nightkill if they are forced to claim

congrats ian, you're useful now

Spoiler for Raiden Mei(defensive):

Extremely powerful for scum, but situational for town. Can be used to protect power roles, alternate with medic for best effect.

Just saw this. Did you not read his guide?

[DoubleCapitals]

dumb idea I remembered from Town of Salem
Raiden can protect away cop-type roles from the nightkill if they are forced to claim

congrats ian, you're useful now

Spoiler for Raiden Mei(defensive):

Extremely powerful for scum, but situational for town. Can be used to protect power roles, alternate with medic for best effect.

Just saw this. Did you not read his guide?

somehow it slipped my mind, I stopped reading at 'extremely powerful for scum' and thought 'oh, we don't use this' at first. Fuck me LOL

DC-

If you decide to get off your OMGUS vote then there are two competing wagons forming... Care for one of them?

shock-
Your advocacy for no vote deserves a rebuttal post that should be typed on a keyboard not a phone... Such rebuttal coming soon. Your started belief in no Lynch as a viable strategy (it isn't) would hold some (mL maybe) water if you followed your own advice and voted no lynch.

2 wagons for policy lynches? Probably shock, not because he's shock but because I'll vote up whoever asks to NL always. Are you telling me to move my vote though?

Just prodding you, I suppose... but voting www right now seems a waste if you're not going to push him or sus him at all, right?

I thought we're are at the stage where we can still vote for shits and giggles...