Elements Mafia 74 - by skyironsword

[andretimpa]

I read the roles in a bit more detail. The thing that stood out the most (that I haven't seen discussed yet) is how much Emma deters scum from doing something that would lead to a role hunt (see me in the last game). Of course using it to role hunt would delay identifying Durandal and Fu Hua but it might still be worth it.

[Coffeeditto]

There's also some theorycrafting I've done: if Emma Planck finds someone's role, and Theresa determines that person's ability type and it doesn't match with what their role is, they're confirmed Herrscher. It can't confirm someone as town, but it can confirm if they have a Honkai core.

That's basically what I was saying on Theresa. You do not even need Emma Planck for this. As long as people are truthful about their role claims, anyone that has claimed will be a viable target. That's one of the reasons I'm being so insistent on truthful role claims.

We can’t rely on the honesty of others claiming their roles. Mafia have 5 roles to potentially hide in, and this method can confirm someone as mafia if their ability type differs from that of their role. There’s no reason not to utilize this second cop. Will respond to others and more points when i am not on mobile

[TheonlyrealBeef]

I read the roles in a bit more detail. The thing that stood out the most (that I haven't seen discussed yet) is how much Emma deters scum from doing something that would lead to a role hunt (see me in the last game). Of course using it to role hunt would delay identifying Durandal and Fu Hua but it might still be worth it.

There is no reason to hunt for a specific role yet N0, but it's a valid alternative suggestion for N2 if it comes down to it. Better than Fu Hua if it can determine scum. The best part is that the ability does not target players, meaning it cannot be blocked unless you specifically target Emma.

There's also some theorycrafting I've done: if Emma Planck finds someone's role, and Theresa determines that person's ability type and it doesn't match with what their role is, they're confirmed Herrscher. It can't confirm someone as town, but it can confirm if they have a Honkai core.

That's basically what I was saying on Theresa. You do not even need Emma Planck for this. As long as people are truthful about their role claims, anyone that has claimed will be a viable target. That's one of the reasons I'm being so insistent on truthful role claims.

We can’t rely on the honesty of others claiming their roles. Mafia have 5 roles to potentially hide in, and this method can confirm someone as mafia if their ability type differs from that of their role. There’s no reason not to utilize this second cop. Will respond to others and more points when i am not on mobile

That is what I want to establish the you lie you die part for. Mafia does not know all the roles other than their own they can pose as. I'm not saying you should not use it or trust role claims, I'm saying you should point out players whose type differs from their claim and lynch them. Either they lied about their role, or they are mafia.

[Submachine]

We can’t rely on the honesty of others claiming their roles. Mafia have 5 roles to potentially hide in, and this method can confirm someone as mafia if their ability type differs from that of their role. There’s no reason not to

On phone to say that I disagree. 18 players, 20 roles, and I was recently reminded that roles are not duplicated. Two roles are unused in the game, and unless mafia knows what those two roles are, they will high chance claim an already existing role. It leads to a 50-50 where one is mafia and the other is town. I like those odds.

[skyironsword]

A town Liliya could further solidify this strat assuming that the Raiden is still town sided, as the Raiden can drive the Flash Counter from Liliya onto another player. Will need confirmation from sky on that one.

For the purposes of this game, abilities do not target unless they specifically say that they do. As such, Flash Counter, Atomic Signature, and all passive abilities do not target.

The rulings section has been updated.

[PlayerOa]

We can’t rely on the honesty of others claiming their roles. Mafia have 5 roles to potentially hide in, and this method can confirm someone as mafia if their ability type differs from that of their role. There’s no reason not to

On phone to say that I disagree. 18 players, 20 roles, and I was recently reminded that roles are not duplicated. Two roles are unused in the game, and unless mafia knows what those two roles are, they will high chance claim an already existing role. It leads to a 50-50 where one is mafia and the other is town. I like those odds.

So much this. Roles not being duplicated is a gamechanger. I wouldn't advice to be throwing roleclaims around yet, but the principle of lynch all liars is more relevant this game than ever.

[skyironsword]

Some niche scenarios can occur due to duplication of roles by Seele Vollerei and Sin Mal. Interaction between two or more players with the same ability is listed below.

• Time Fracture: If they target each other, both will lose the ability to vote on the following day.
• Phantom Image: If both abilities target the exact same two players, they effectively cancel out and no swap will happen that night. If both abilities share one target, that player will be affected by any abilities targeting either of the other targets, as well as any abilities that would target them. (For example, if one Mei targets Players A and B, and another targets Players B and C, anything that targets one of those three players will target Player B instead.) This can result in an ability having fewer targets than before. (Continuing the previous example, if Kallen Kaslana targets both Players A and B with Red Thread of Fate, only Player B will be affected, which effectively does nothing.)
• Consecrate Ground: All targets of both abilities will be affected. No interference occurs.
• Red Thread of Fate: If they share targets, and one of the targets dies, all targets will die, as expected.
• Rose Petals: If they target the same player, nothing happens at all. Rose Petals only affects abilities with a lower priority, meaning it will not affect Rose Petals abilities of other players.
• Abyssal Flower: Tracked independently per player. See the Rulings section for more details.
• Theory of Relativity: Only excludes self from the results, not other uses of Theory of Relativity. In other words, if both players target the same player, they will learn that Theory of Relativity was used on their target.

All other abilities work as expected, and should not cause confusion.

The rulings section has been updated.

[moehrpi]

I agree that cop should call out scum. This gives us confirmed town, who are also likely high-profile players that can be protected, or a 1-for-1 trade* with scum with the potential to further mess with NK.

That is assuming cop is town which I don't think is guaranteed in this set-up. Nevertheless, we should absolutely protect cop should he get outed.

Spoiler for Bronya Zaychik(passive):

Useful for scum to tip the voting scales in their favor. People should lynch vote every day, even with this role.

Saving your vote should be fine if there is a long enough wagon at EOD.

Spoiler for Theresa Apocalypse(informative):

Allows you to verify if the player's role claim matches their ability type. If not, claim and lynch.

Again, I am in favour of policy lynching.

Spoiler for Kallen Kaslana(offensive):

Allows scum to take a town down with them, not sure what the most useful usage for town is. Best to just leave the ability be or try to drag down someone scummy with a likely NK target.

Taking someone with you is a good play more often than not. Can also be used to confirm town. I.e. you are able to target two other players.

Spoiler for Cecilia Shariac(offensive):

Feel free to target neutral/inactive players once each, since this does not kill them. Targeting mafia as town will make you a very likely NK target, however.

Is the sole purpose of this role to be able to confirm your role? At later stages you might get to snipe some players, though.

Spoiler for Shigure Kira(informative):

Can likely be used freely. Please do not target power roles to prevent outing them to mafia.

Are you talking about the possibility of scum Shigure? I lean towards using this role as much as possible and gather information / find people lying about their roles.

Spoiler for Frederica Tesla(informative):

Can be used freely. Most useful when used on individual players to spy them using 2 abilities during one night (=mafia).

Using this ability on more than one person at a time increases the speed at which you can parse through players. More than three drastically increases the chance of someone not using their ability or having a passive ability. Starting N1 this becomes unclear, though, since EoR messes with this. I guess going 3, then 2 the following nights is fine, unless you are suspicious of a specific person.

Spoiler for Emma Planck(informative):

Should be used whenever possible. Identify living power roles to help protect them. Durandal N0, Fu Hua N2.

By helping I suspect you mean protecting from lynching? Extremely powerful role, especially in the wrong hands.

Spoiler for Sin Mal(???):

If you can predict whom gets lynched this ability is extremely useful, but after obtaining new abilities soem informative roles may perceive you as scum. Avoid using two abilities in one night.

The latter part is void. But as TorB said later in this thread using it on ~inactive folks seems like the best use. I don't expect too much out of it anymore. Following through on a plan that's build on little information and is prone to being manipulated is tough. I won't further perpetuate my earlier idea.

All in all, I thought it would read more like a plan than an analysis. But it's solid groundwork.

Spoiler for Lilya Olenyeva(defensive):

If everyone suddenly wants you dead on a night, this will eliminate them all. Veruy useful if you will be the next nightkill target.

Will kill at most 1 scum really  but coulf kill a lot of town used at the wrong time.
Purely by numbers a losing gamble until later in the game. Good catch.

There's also some theorycrafting I've done: if Emma Planck finds someone's role, and Theresa determines that person's ability type and it doesn't match with what their role is, they're confirmed Herrscher. It can't confirm someone as town, but it can confirm if they have a Honkai core.

It can confirm Sin Mal but that should be it. Otherwise I like the theory-crafting in this post and the role analysis before that. It's just a bit too much for me at the moment to fully immerse myself.

I have a question to those who analyzed the roles more than I did. Is there any drawback of discussing Cop targets? Can mafia intercept it without giving away one of their roles?

Possibly giving away a role and finding out who cop is is totally worth it for mafia.

Also keep in mind that mafia may reduce the potential number of confirmed town asap by NK-ing those that have been targeted by Durandal but were not mafia, I think.

Fortunately, mafia does not have a guaranteed NK in this iteration. But confirmed town surely feels like Linkcat on a hot tin roof.

[TheonlyrealBeef]

Spoiler for Shigure Kira(informative):

Can likely be used freely. Please do not target power roles to prevent outing them to mafia.

Are you talking about the possibility of scum Shigure? I lean towards using this role as much as possible and gather information / find people lying about their roles.

This was based on my misunderstanding of the role, which I rectified after clarification. I had the idea that if at least one person would target Shigure Kira, everyone involved would know everyone's identity. Can be used freely since you will only learn the identity of the one targeting you and those targeting you will only know Shigure's identity.

[Coffeeditto]

We can’t rely on the honesty of others claiming their roles. Mafia have 5 roles to potentially hide in, and this method can confirm someone as mafia if their ability type differs from that of their role. There’s no reason not to

On phone to say that I disagree. 18 players, 20 roles, and I was recently reminded that roles are not duplicated. Two roles are unused in the game, and unless mafia knows what those two roles are, they will high chance claim an already existing role. It leads to a 50-50 where one is mafia and the other is town. I like those odds.

The mafia know 3 of their roles, and there’s a 2/17 chance that they claim a role not taken. It’s reasonably possible that they’ll claim a role already taken, but they could also roleswap in each other’s roles, and what if someone claims an important role like hua, durandal or emma? we lynch in ccs and possible mislynch a power role to the greater detriment of the town.

There's also some theorycrafting I've done: if Emma Planck finds someone's role, and Theresa determines that person's ability type and it doesn't match with what their role is, they're confirmed Herrscher. It can't confirm someone as town, but it can confirm if they have a Honkai core.

That's basically what I was saying on Theresa. You do not even need Emma Planck for this. As long as people are truthful about their role claims, anyone that has claimed will be a viable target. That's one of the reasons I'm being so insistent on truthful role claims.

We can’t rely on the honesty of others claiming their roles. Mafia have 5 roles to potentially hide in, and this method can confirm someone as mafia if their ability type differs from that of their role. There’s no reason not to utilize this second cop. Will respond to others and more points when i am not on mobile

That is what I want to establish the you lie you die part for. Mafia does not know all the roles other than their own they can pose as. I'm not saying you should not use it or trust role claims, I'm saying you should point out players whose type differs from their claim and lynch them. Either they lied about their role, or they are mafia.
[/quote]how could important power roles ever hide? if someone is forcing a player who rolled durandal to claim, how are we to hide them in other roles? also, am i understanding you correctly that you think we don’t need the emma confirmation? what happens in the event that theresa rolled maf and lies to get someone lynched? they could blame it on the person lying about their role.

[TheonlyrealBeef]

how could important power roles ever hide? if someone is forcing a player who rolled durandal to claim, how are we to hide them in other roles? also, am i understanding you correctly that you think we don’t need the emma confirmation? what happens in the event that theresa rolled maf and lies to get someone lynched? they could blame it on the person lying about their role.

It's not like everyone needs to claim. In fact, the reason people shouldn't claim too early is for this very purpose. You don't need to lie for this.

If someone gets lynched as the role they claimed (role is revealed on death), we have just outed a mafia Theresa, it's a major victory from my point of view.

[Coffeeditto]

how could important power roles ever hide? if someone is forcing a player who rolled durandal to claim, how are we to hide them in other roles? also, am i understanding you correctly that you think we don’t need the emma confirmation? what happens in the event that theresa rolled maf and lies to get someone lynched? they could blame it on the person lying about their role.

It's not like everyone needs to claim. In fact, the reason people shouldn't claim too early is for this very purpose. You don't need to lie for this.

If someone gets lynched as the role they claimed (role is revealed on death), we have just outed a mafia Theresa, it's a major victory from my point of view.

I just feel as if in order for someone to claim something and get lynched after, that would mean the town is forcing someone to claim, right? It’s as if you’re suggesting that at some point, the town will force someone to claim and for theresa to put their report on them, and then we either catch a scum which isn’t a bad thing or catch a lying scummy theresa. I think we’re just agreeing here, other than my distaste at forcing someone to claim.