Elements Mafia 74 - by skyironsword

[killsdazombies]

that’s one of our two mechanically mafia confirming roles gone. aaaaaaAAAAAA

i wonder if the shock lynch really was just policy

I mean, what is the alternative. Theres nothing that stops a mafia death from being revealed, and we already killed shock. I cant imagine the mafia would put a redirect onto shock, hell I was surprised shock didnt get Vig killed n0.

[Naii_the_Baf]

What was the point in killing dawn now? Shouldn't Cecilia have targeted someone else?

[MasterWalks]

Just back from camping and read up. Very confused about the nightkill, but i think it helps. Mafia killing Linkcat to me reads as mafia being largely inexperienced and worried about more experienced players. However, not only does it read like that to me but it also throws some sus onto Rob. I think a rob mafia would kill linkcat first just like a shock mafia would kill Kaempfer first. These are just theories and my initial thoughts.

I would also like to throw the idea out that whoever killed d2d might not actually be mafia. d2d would be a decent target for a trigger happy oty town due to inactivity and confidence when he was active. Still, if it was town that pulled the trigger on dawn, it was a very very wasteful role use and dont be surprised if your lynched right away if/when someone finds out who is the killer.

[dawn to dusk]

Well that's a shame, good luck town

[rob77dp]

Just back from camping and read up. Very confused about the nightkill, but i think it helps. Mafia killing Linkcat to me reads as mafia being largely inexperienced and worried about more experienced players. However, not only does it read like that to me but it also throws some sus onto Rob. I think a rob mafia would kill linkcat first just like a shock mafia would kill Kaempfer first. These are just theories and my initial thoughts.

I would also like to throw the idea out that whoever killed d2d might not actually be mafia. d2d would be a decent target for a trigger happy oty town due to inactivity and confidence when he was active. Still, if it was town that pulled the trigger on dawn, it was a very very wasteful role use and dont be surprised if your lynched right away if/when someone finds out who is the killer.

Alright, so then who might you posit as your team of 3 'largely inexperienced' players who plink Link on N1 because he is experienced? Oh wait, you then follow up that it actually has you sus on me. I suppose maybe you think I'm inexperienced but really I'm guessing it is just you putting hedging statements back-to-back there. I'd like to hear how your thought process develops further if you continue to weight the N1 NK, thanks.

A trigger happy town shooting dawn bang-bang N0+N1 to kill is more than just trigger happy. I float the idea out for at-large opinion/comment about asking Cecelia to come forward now if they are town to discuss they're double-tapping of now-flipped town!dawn. I know last game I had a kind of slightly similar N0 action nomming coffee - but in they are actually quite different and I find this dawn kill to be a bad move (cue the flack aimed at me about the previous game and my negativity toward this kill...).

Atleast Link remained U N L Y N C H A B L E this mafia, also guess the vig is maf too

If www3 flips mafia then Cecelia-vig is very likely town. However, this take on the dawn-Cecelia double-tap resonates with me whereas MW's above feels almost like forcing extra talk about it. Towny-bump for www3.

that’s one of our two mechanically mafia confirming roles gone. aaaaaaAAAAAA

i wonder if the shock lynch really was just policy

I mean, what is the alternative. Theres nothing that stops a mafia death from being revealed, and we already killed shock. I cant imagine the mafia would put a redirect onto shock, hell I was surprised shock didnt get Vig killed n0.

I've tried reading it a few times now and I can't fully figure what you're trying to say here kdz - can you clarify what you mean?

[killsdazombies]

Coffee said "I wonder if the shock lynch really was just policy" which I took to imply linkcat /thought/ they were lynching a mafia

which, if im not wrong, can only be done with a redirect. Meaning for linkcat to have gotten a mafia ping from their copbility, he would have had to target shock, and someone would have had to redirect from shock to a mafia member (and vice versa) which I found hard to believe.

So if it really wasn't a policy lynch, as coffee is stating, then someone had to have randomly directed from shock to someone else, and that 2nd person returned a mafia ping. I assume it would have to be a random person, because no mafia member would redirect with shock, since they were pretty likely to get Vig killed n0. That feels pretty tinfoil, which is all I was trying to state. I'm a tired boi, and I already make very little sense. Bad combo

[DoubleCapitals]

dawn to dusk fell into the abyss. He was Shigure Kira.

[DoubleCapitals]

If Cocolia exists, is not scum, and knows Cecilia, ...good time to out that now?

[rob77dp]

That being said, in looking at the Link NK... was it a power role suspicion (Link was a bit low-lying Day 1 for his usual punchy self, which he waved away as being due to essentially RL things) vs shot-in-the-dark (would probably be the case if scum wanted to avoid interring / blocking role actions) vs on-point dangerous reads (don't remember many reads from Link yet)?

Spoiler for Link's reads on point?:

Link's last posts were a final-seconds-of-N1 post shading DC and ian --- I don't think this post affected NK targeting at all being 4 seconds before deadline for actions? Also, there are others with harder scum-reads on DC and ian than that from Link.
Link also posted shading TorB and moe about an hour before end of N1 --- this could I guess have impacted a mafia NK decision but only if they were online/active in that last hour. One post on TorB and two on moe seems light compared to some stronger shade and pushing going on elsewhere.
Link posted near middle of Night 1 with suspicion of moe... with his post before this moe-shade being him lightly celebrating shock's lynch/mislynch and declaring himself to have no scumreads.
During Day 1, he posted about "would rather lynch MW" - which could loosely be seen as sort of a slight scum-lean on MW...

--> Other than shock (RIP), Link didn't really push many beyond the above most of which are soft-pushes anyway which feels awfully thin for it to be a "Link has scum pegged - panic-kill-him-now" scenario.

Spoiler for Link drew-the-short-straw?:

Meh I suppose given the role madness and multitude of possible ways scum can be foiled if they go for high town-read targets (I can think of Oa as an example) - I don't think many had any public town-reads on Link yet. So a scum-team knowing he is town could see that as a chance to try to kill a strong player that they know is town.

Spoiler for Link softed a power role?:

I don't see him doing this anywhere in his ISO...

==> I'm not seeing any kind of hard lines related to Link's NK there... but I would hazard to guess most likely is a shot at an experienced player that was laying low.

Everyone should breadcrumb everything.

Just found this - we need to find where Link might have crumbed his N0 result...? (Also just saw kdz reply that he was sort of trying to get on this with his previous post)

[rob77dp]

If Cocolia exists, is not scum, and knows Cecilia, ...good time to out that now?

Oh wow, looking again at Cocolia ability... a scum Cocolia makes a TON of sense on how Theresa-Link could get sniped N1 out of the gate. It just seems so unlikely any other Nk target reasons make sense - but scum knowing Link's role combined with his not being high town-read make shooting Link N1 make sense a little bit.

Also, DC - I'm not sure your plan is a good one as it outs two roles and the main aim (finding Cecilia?) is only somewhat likely as Cecilia is not sure to be town. (NB: if Cocolia exists in the game that is, of course)

[rob77dp]

Kae - elements mafia 49. Might have to dig it out, i don't remember if that lives in the usual place for old games here it not.

Rob, that was a scrubbed game that we played literally half a decade ago. Don't try to read off of it.

kae, I'd like you to explicitly rule out Raiden as rob mentioned the possibility. Obviously, we don't know the exact wording in your PM.

That confirms there is Rita who also likes to play ballsy. Maybe too ballsy for town? If we end up finding out a more cautious player is Rita it would hint at scum/scum with an information role such as Cocolia. But there's s big margin of error here.

We also know Durandal is in the game, yay, and this also confirms Oa for me, unless someone speaks up in the next few hours. Take good care of him next night.


EBWOP, soft-confirming www3's roll. :/

I soft counterclaim your soft confirm.

moe DC OA are mafia according to my rolls. Infact, as you can see, DC and OA came in both of my rolls :angry:

23:37:03] ‹worldwideweb3› (3d18) 15 + 4 + 15 = 34 ...!!
[23:37:07] ‹worldwideweb3› ew
[23:37:10] ‹worldwideweb3› (3d18) 18 + 4 + 15 = 37 ...✗

This is the "www3 roll" that moe was referring to that Link soft counterclaimed moe's facetious "soft confirm"... Could it be Link crumbing that his N0 'spear' returned a non-Herscherr result on one of the players www3's rolls playfully identified - being moe / DC / Oa. Perhaps but seems a stretch, then again crumbs are supposed to be thin and veiled or not too obvious otherwise they are detected too soon??

[TheonlyrealBeef]

Some other theories:

• Mafia could have used Core of Reason N0 to determine Link's role.
• Mafia took Link's joke statement implying he was Durandal serious.

With just N0 and no role claims to go on, it would have been virtually impossible to find mafia with Theresa already. If Link did, he would at the very least have made a scum read. Pretty sure no scum "read" was the breadcrumb for no scum result from ability.

I do not feel very confident in putting a lynch vote somewhere right now, will try to make some time for a full reads list first. It will be a list that removes the Durandal factor that I do weigh in my head, however.