Elements Mafia 74 - by skyironsword

[TheonlyrealBeef]

But I estimate the odds of you being maf higher than the odds of kaempfer13 being maf, it's a bad deal for anyone thinking the chances of you being maf are higher than the chances of either of me or kaempfer13 being maf. So especially bad for me or kaempfer13 since we know our own alignments.

[worldwideweb3]

But I estimate the odds of you being maf higher than the odds of kaempfer13 being maf, it's a bad deal for anyone thinking the chances of you being maf are higher than the chances of either of me or kaempfer13 being maf. So especially bad for me or kaempfer13 since we know our own alignments.

And I know mine, and from my view this is pro town :/

[kaempfer13]

you know w3, if one of us actually were maf youd still have to vote us, which doesnt make sense to do when you townread us more than the other players. Anyway we dont need your voting power to seal the game.
If the nightplan goes through, ian will be confirmed town and calindu and sub/you dead, torb and i were involved with uncovering that timpa was lying, kdz confirmed town, so assuming the game doesnt end by then we have to solve between you/sub(one is dead) and coffee.
If it doesnt we can find out who tampered with it.

[worldwideweb3]

and thats what i said, it wont even matter unless you or torb are mafia. I cant just discount all possibilities, its one of those extreme scenarios thats unlikely but always a chance. In a last 3 of you me and torb, with one mafia, who would you vote (rhetorical q)

Also, i may townread you both more than others, but doesn't mean youre conf town.

[Submachine]

There is a lot that needs to be unpacked here. I don't even know where to start.

First of all, Coffee vs www. In the previous game, I tried the strategy to give more towncred to those who solved more, and it proved to be effective from my PoV. Following that line, Coffee solved fairly often near the first half of the game, while www's solving is near zero. That would say, between those two, www is mafia. However, I find it very uncomfortable that Coffee just went silent after suspicion went to other people, while www became more active and "in your face". I also don't remember if Coffee's solving was role solving (which is mostly NAI) or town solving.

So to me, logic dictates that the mafia between them is www, but my gut says it is Coffee. And I cannot decide which one to follow.

Www is an interesting case, because almost everyone townreads him despite him not having any solid defense. His defenses are "I am town" (which as I showed in the previous game, mafia can say just as easily), and the WIFOM of mafia not wanting this much attention on them. However he forgets that Coffee has an even better WIFOM defense than him, because Coffee straight up shot a town during early game, which would make much less sense as mafia as www's weak attempts to call attention to himself.

Speaking of calling attention to www, I now want a straight answer from him about what his plan is in this game. He has been clearly vocal about not wanting to die (heck, that might be the only thing he did in this game), but he has not said why yet. Some people do it because they need time to gather information, but www does not have a role that becomes better as time goes on, and he is not solving enough to make his time alive worth it. Simply wanting to be alive is not an acceptable reason. And continuously calling out FOR THE MAFIA to not want getting nightkilled is insane at times when there are confirmed town and confirmed doctors on the plate.

This is the time for www to stop holding on to secrets and spill out everything. If he had any mind games planned (for example: calling out to specific mafia players to not kill him, to make that player suspect that www knows he is mafia, and actually attract a nightkill on purpose to save a more useful player from dying), it is time to reveal it. Even I reveal now that my initial attempt of asking for not getting Nightkilled was a weak attempt at actually attracting the nightkill. But after I realized that I'm not a sensible nightkill, I dropped it completely. More about www below.

Let's also talk about where this game is heading. TorB's plan will go off, no question about that. This means, the game is already on a set course towards a set result, depending on who is mafia. Town's only surefire victory with this plan is if both DC and Calindu are mafia. In every other scenario, mafia has between 50-100% chance to win this. If the last mafia is among Coffee and www, town still has a chance to win, but I can easily see this scenario ending with a loss for town. If mafia is not among them, however, then it is among Kae and TorB. Being aware that they can be mafia is fine, but they will NOT get voted unless someone actually brings up scum points about them.

So, back to www's case, he should not be allowed to hold on to 2x voting power unless he brings out a clear and logical argument about why Kae or TorB is mafia, AND actually proceed to vote on them, and not just "be aware" of the possibility.

So what I think should happen now is www to start voting today and explain everything about his overly defensive behavior, while also revealing any plans he had this whole game and what he plans to do, create a readlist (which he never did in this game, by the way), and Coffee to also start being vocal and do actual solving.

As I said, the game took a set course as soon as we all agreed to follow TorB's plan. As last game showed, being aware of someone possibly being the mafia achieves nothing if we do not vote on them. We should make a concensus whether we suspect Kae or TorB to be mafia (strongly enough that we actually vote on them!), and if not, put them off the table. I think if we have a deep wolf, it is Kae and not TorB. TorB did too many things, but I can't remember if Kae actually helped find a mafia, or he doubled down on a mafia that TorB found without him. I want an answer to this too from people who have good memory of this, then I will make a final decision whether I will consider voting Kae or not - if I even live for the next day.

And one other thing I remembered: If I am tunneled by TorB and Kae strong enough that they think I am more likely to be mafia than www and Coffee combined, then Ian should definitely not target www tonight, because if www is town, then town will be sure to mislynch on the following day. At least, with www and Coffee on the table, I believe town's opinion will be more diverse, and thus, have a chance to win.

[Submachine]

Also, you wouldnt even be alive by now if i was maf

This has no weight, as mafia has been constantly killing confirmed town as I remember.

This reminds me, if TorB is mafia, if we have a deep wolf among TorB and Kae, and the game reaches 3v1, I think town should No Lynch, because then mafia needs to kill a town member who would be possible to be deep wolf if they want to avoid a stalemate. Especially if Ian is alive, because then he creates an even better PoE by the time LyLo is reached.

For this though, town needs a strong determination to keep up the No Lynch as long as it is still 3v1, because it might actually be a stalemate of mafia not killing anyone and town not lynching anyone.

[Submachine]

This reminds me, if TorB is mafia, if we have a deep wolf among TorB and Kae,

EBWOP: "This reminds me, if we have a deep wolf among TorB and Kae,"

Ignore the "if TorB is mafia," part.

[worldwideweb3]

There is a lot that needs to be unpacked here. I don't even know where to start.

First of all, Coffee vs www. In the previous game, I tried the strategy to give more towncred to those who solved more, and it proved to be effective from my PoV. Following that line, Coffee solved fairly often near the first half of the game, while www's solving is near zero. That would say, between those two, www is mafia. However, I find it very uncomfortable that Coffee just went silent after suspicion went to other people, while www became more active and "in your face". I also don't remember if Coffee's solving was role solving (which is mostly NAI) or town solving.

So to me, logic dictates that the mafia between them is www, but my gut says it is Coffee. And I cannot decide which one to follow.

Www is an interesting case, because almost everyone townreads him despite him not having any solid defense. His defenses are "I am town" (which as I showed in the previous game, mafia can say just as easily), and the WIFOM of mafia not wanting this much attention on them. However he forgets that Coffee has an even better WIFOM defense than him, because Coffee straight up shot a town during early game, which would make much less sense as mafia as www's weak attempts to call attention to himself.

Speaking of calling attention to www, I now want a straight answer from him about what his plan is in this game. He has been clearly vocal about not wanting to die (heck, that might be the only thing he did in this game), but he has not said why yet. Some people do it because they need time to gather information, but www does not have a role that becomes better as time goes on, and he is not solving enough to make his time alive worth it. Simply wanting to be alive is not an acceptable reason. And continuously calling out FOR THE MAFIA to not want getting nightkilled is insane at times when there are confirmed town and confirmed doctors on the plate.

This is the time for www to stop holding on to secrets and spill out everything. If he had any mind games planned (for example: calling out to specific mafia players to not kill him, to make that player suspect that www knows he is mafia, and actually attract a nightkill on purpose to save a more useful player from dying), it is time to reveal it. Even I reveal now that my initial attempt of asking for not getting Nightkilled was a weak attempt at actually attracting the nightkill. But after I realized that I'm not a sensible nightkill, I dropped it completely. More about www below.

Let's also talk about where this game is heading. TorB's plan will go off, no question about that. This means, the game is already on a set course towards a set result, depending on who is mafia. Town's only surefire victory with this plan is if both DC and Calindu are mafia. In every other scenario, mafia has between 50-100% chance to win this. If the last mafia is among Coffee and www, town still has a chance to win, but I can easily see this scenario ending with a loss for town. If mafia is not among them, however, then it is among Kae and TorB. Being aware that they can be mafia is fine, but they will NOT get voted unless someone actually brings up scum points about them.

So, back to www's case, he should not be allowed to hold on to 2x voting power unless he brings out a clear and logical argument about why Kae or TorB is mafia, AND actually proceed to vote on them, and not just "be aware" of the possibility.

So what I think should happen now is www to start voting today and explain everything about his overly defensive behavior, while also revealing any plans he had this whole game and what he plans to do, create a readlist (which he never did in this game, by the way), and Coffee to also start being vocal and do actual solving.

As I said, the game took a set course as soon as we all agreed to follow TorB's plan. As last game showed, being aware of someone possibly being the mafia achieves nothing if we do not vote on them. We should make a concensus whether we suspect Kae or TorB to be mafia (strongly enough that we actually vote on them!), and if not, put them off the table. I think if we have a deep wolf, it is Kae and not TorB. TorB did too many things, but I can't remember if Kae actually helped find a mafia, or he doubled down on a mafia that TorB found without him. I want an answer to this too from people who have good memory of this, then I will make a final decision whether I will consider voting Kae or not - if I even live for the next day.

And one other thing I remembered: If I am tunneled by TorB and Kae strong enough that they think I am more likely to be mafia than www and Coffee combined, then Ian should definitely not target www tonight, because if www is town, then town will be sure to mislynch on the following day. At least, with www and Coffee on the table, I believe town's opinion will be more diverse, and thus, have a chance to win.

Ofcourse i want to be alive and not die, isnt that what everyone wants for themself? It would be weird if someone said please nk me, or lynch vote me.
Im not voting kae or torb rn because theyre the least likely to be scum - but it doesnt mean they are definitely not scum. As ive said multiple times, its a very small chance but in that situation, having a 2* voting power with a towny is very helpful.

I dont think there will ever be a 3 vs 1 this mafia. End of this day phase, theres 8 left, then 3 die on night (as it stands), so 5 at start of next day. Assuming mafia is still left, itll be a 4 vs 1 or 3 vs 2. So if you think about it, we are not likely to have a 3 vs 1 this game at all, as it stands.

I cant have any secrets except knwing i am town, which all of you dont for sure obvs. idk what other secrets sub expects me to have?

Idk how coffees still alive after that dawn vig tbh, he shouldve been lynch voted by now lol. i dont even agree with this night plan, but need to wait for DC flip to make my mind up.

I was the first one to vote on andre, and on DC. idk if that doesnt give me towncred, what does. I cant do much role solving this game like torb/kae/moe etc can, my role doesnt allow that. What it does allow me is twice the voting power for town when in need, which is very helpful.

[worldwideweb3]

oh i forgot to add, :thumbs-up:

[TheonlyrealBeef]

It's easy to vote for mafia members when it's not to kill them and you know their identities because they are your buddies. Also, you do remember your voting power resets to 1 after voting? Just saying. I don't think additional voting power helps town at all, only possibility where it could help from my point of view is when you are town and kaempfer13 is mafia.

w3: your objective is for town to win if you are town. I let myself get NK-ed previous mafia to prevent the risk of getting mislynched to name an example of how getting yourself NK-ed can help town as town. Only mafia has the goal of leaving at least one mafia member alive. If you prioritize your survival above all else, you're playing like mafia, which makes you look like one. Getting the NK instead of a town cop/doc is also a pro town move, like it or not.

Not sure where Sub pulls these percentages from, by the way.

[Submachine]

Ofcourse i want to be alive and not die, isnt that what everyone wants for themself? It would be weird if someone said please nk me, or lynch vote me.

Wrong. You should want town to win, even if that means dying. You should have realized by now that you are not only expendable, but also a distraction if you are town. Reaching endgame with less town cred than everyone else is a detriment.

Spoiler for Hidden:

I already expanded on this idea earlier, as seen in the quote below.

I do not much care about my own survival, as I do understand that I am unlikely to be nightkilled, and if I get to endgame, people will suspect me by principle. (That is why I'm glad that I got one of the roles that I asked for: something expendable.)

Im not voting kae or torb rn because theyre the least likely to be scum - but it doesnt mean they are definitely not scum. As ive said multiple times, its a very small chance but in that situation, having a 2* voting power with a towny is very helpful.

[...]

I cant have any secrets except knwing i am town, which all of you dont for sure obvs. idk what other secrets sub expects me to have?

As you have said multiple times, you think they have the least chance to be mafia. I hope we can agree that the sane thing to do is to commit to the route that has more chance to win. In this case, I want a clear statement from you whether you have any lead to actually vote on them. Everyone is aware that Kae and TorB can be mafia, but you are not special in this. But if they have less chance to be mafia than anyone else, we will not vote on them, and if you don't vote on them, you should stop worrying about your own voting power.

And we get back to the part of you revealing all your plans/secrets. If you want to hide your plan to last-minute vote on TorB with 2 voting power, and want to conceal that plan for TorB not to suspect it, you MUST reveal it now, otherwise you are not allowed to have 2 voting power, because town cannot use it for anything useful. It is only useful for mafia.

I was the first one to vote on andre, and on DC. idk if that doesnt give me towncred, what does. I cant do much role solving this game like torb/kae/moe etc can, my role doesnt allow that. What it does allow me is twice the voting power for town when in need, which is very helpful.

You were also the first one to vote on me. Voting without context is bad and will not give you any credit. You never said you suspect them, and even right now you have not given any readlists, which I am still waiting for.

On top of that, in the previous game, I was the first to vote on some mafia, because I was mafia with them. So it can just as well give you scum cred, so you are wrong again.

[Submachine]

Not sure where Sub pulls these percentages from, by the way.

50% comes from the base assumption that one of Coffee or www is mafia, and I think that is the best case scenario given the criteria I mentioned earlier. But don't mind my percentages, as I did not put real math behind them. Speaking of percentages though, www's 0,5% and 1% make even less sense than what I said.