Elements Mafia 74 - by skyironsword

[TheonlyrealBeef]

Current state... 8:2. NK tonight happens no chance to block\save. --> 7:2, lynch somebody tomorrow. Worst case they're town. 6:2. Core of death might get used tonight would be worst worse case and they die EOD also > 5:2. NK > 4:2. Lynch again, worst case is town > 3:2. NK > 2:2 parity game over.

I think we have AT LEAST two lynches to got at least 1 scum, which would get us another chance.
---> need 1 scum in next two lynches...
---> to earn another 1-in-two chance?

So MAX poe appears to be four deep.
DC\coffee almost certainly hits one; next step though I think it gets murky if DC or coffee is town... The last probably hiding among sub\www3\cal\ian? I see no way or reason for TorB \ Kae \ kdz \ [myself] to not be the next set of no targets \ non-poe.

Thoughts? (Other than the obvious but I think unavoidable minimal WIFOM that's in there)

Having both DC and Coffee be mafia does not seem very likely to me, either? From looking at lynch logs, at least.
Agree with logic from there on out. If someone does want to insist rob is mafia, chances are extremely high they will be proven wrong as early as tonight.

Yup I have thoughts

Best case scenario: w3 gets NK-ed. We narrow our PoE, get a higher content/post average and keep all our useful roles.

[Submachine]

As far as things go, I doubt Coffee is mafia.

And as much as I kept pointing out things that spoke against www, I start thinking that he's town.

I get the feeling we have exactly one deep wolf.

[rob77dp]

Given NK has always gone through, I suppose scum may leave me alone thinking I am lying about my town role? But that's pretty far fetched. I mean, maybe they let me live if they think Raiden #2 doesn't get lynched next and then shade me as not being town because "why would mafia not NK town doc?!".  Or my reads have scum in my "town core"? But the basic level 1 +EV mafia play tonight is to NK me. Hence I'll probably be posting this phase as if I won't get to say anything next day. You're welcome. And drink some of THAT WIFOM.

[rob77dp]

As far as things go, I doubt Coffee is mafia.

And as much as I kept pointing out things that spoke against www, I start thinking that he's town.

I get the feeling we have exactly one deep wolf.

Do you count? I could def see that...

[rob77dp]

I never vote TorB or Kae or kdz. NOBODY should be voting kdz.

It isn't me. So if you insist deep wolf I can only agree if you mean outside of those names. Are you thinking it IS ONE of those? Do tell.

[Submachine]

As far as things go, I doubt Coffee is mafia.

And as much as I kept pointing out things that spoke against www, I start thinking that he's town.

I get the feeling we have exactly one deep wolf.

Do you count? I could def see that...

If I would be mafia in this game, I would not count as deep wolf, as I'm highly suspected by at least 2 people. I'm talking about widely townread people as deep wolfs.

[Submachine]

I never vote TorB or Kae or kdz. NOBODY should be voting kdz.

It isn't me. So if you insist deep wolf I can only agree if you mean outside of those names. Are you thinking it IS ONE of those? Do tell.

Everything is possible, even if unlikely. The order in which I think deep wolfs are possible is as follows:

rob --> TorB --> kae

But as any sane town, I look for the easier to find wolves first. And the likely people to be that wolf is as follows:

DC --> Cal --> ian = Coffee = www

[worldwideweb3]

I was the first to vote DC and the first to vote timpa. Heavy bussing

[Coffeeditto]

Core of Reason, Durandal and Emma Planck should all be on cooldown tonight, having Frederica Tesla target the exact same targets as last night may give insight on those roles. In case shock was included, we already know he used his ability N0 and did not have a Honkai Core.
At least one player has already given significant hints on their role. The one that first comes to mind might not be the most important one, but they would make perfect Theresa targets. For town Theresa with info on unclaimed people: remember that the other two top town roles are both EoR. So they should not be a priority when "random" lynching.

this is a quote from n1, but i was wondering why you chose to include those specific 3 roles to mention them being on CD? the casual mention of core of reason as if you knew it was in the game was like 'huh.'

Also coffee should holster tonight 

can do, boss man

At least he called me amigo... It's fine, hearing it over and over kinda just numbs me to it over time I guess

you're take on timpa\coffee 'interaction' last night (actions) and day (posts)?

I had both as scum already and it hasn't changed what I think of them. Looks like an act and I wonder why he didn't try to hit anyone else seeing as andre and I were almost certainly gonna be the next lynches

i didn't hit timpa

I was the first to vote DC and the first to vote timpa. Heavy bussing

kindly prove some reads along with your bread?

[Submachine]

The order in which I think deep wolfs are possible is as follows:

rob --> TorB --> kae

Correction:

www --> rob --> TorB --> kae

[Submachine]

Actually, I don't think we have any remaining method to confirm ian, so my reads are minorly updated.

DC --> Cal = ian --> Coffee

[Submachine]

Anyway, this is pretty much a solved game. Bring on the memes.