Elements Mafia 74 - by skyironsword

[TheonlyrealBeef]

Doc can self-target to prevent vigi kills. Even if doc does miraculously target cop, as long as mafia expects doc to successfully use ability on cop N1, actually successfully using it is not required. There is only a 1/19 chance that a target other than doc is cop, after all.

[iancudorinmarian]

1/17 actually

[TheonlyrealBeef]

1/17 actually

Only if a cop is guaranteed to exist, which I do not believe is the case.

[iancudorinmarian]

I was bored, so I did the math. Apparently, there's a 0.75 probability of there being a civvy cop. Same probability for there being a civvy doc. (according to hypergeometric calculator with: pop = 20 roles, nr successes = 1, sample size = 15 - for 15 civvy - , nr successes in sample = 1)

So that leaves us with 0.75 * 0.75 = 0.5625 probability of having both civvy cop and civvy doc. Then the probability of both existing AND the doc hitting the cop is 0.5625 * (1/17) = 0.03308823529 ~= 0.033.

So that leaves us with 3.3% chance.

Of course, all this information is worthless, but as said, I was bored.

[TheonlyrealBeef]

It's true that the chance of any given role being town is 75%, but the chance for additional roles also being town decreases since the sample size and number of town left in them decreases. So the chance of both being town is even lower.

[Coffeeditto]

I fully support a self-doc n0.

[TheonlyrealBeef]

An extreme example of this, is that the chance of 16 given roles are all town is not 0.75^16, but 0. Since there are only 15 town.
The difference is minimal, instead of (15/20)*(15/20)=0.5625 we get (15/20)*(14/19)~=0.5526

[worldwideweb3]

I was bored, so I did the math. Apparently, there's a 0.75 probability of there being a civvy cop. Same probability for there being a civvy doc. (according to hypergeometric calculator with: pop = 20 roles, nr successes = 1, sample size = 15 - for 15 civvy - , nr successes in sample = 1)

So that leaves us with 0.75 * 0.75 = 0.5625 probability of having both civvy cop and civvy doc. Then the probability of both existing AND the doc hitting the cop is 0.5625 * (1/17) = 0.03308823529 ~= 0.033.

So that leaves us with 3.3% chance.

Of course, all this information is worthless, but as said, I was bored.

Did you take into account that some people have have listed cop or medic on their list, increasing the chance they exist this game

[Calindu]

Not bothered to carefully read and go in depth over everything posted so far.

I agree with the role usage TorB put forward, but I think as long as someone finds a good usage for their role and can explain why they did something, they should go for it. Of course, use your best judgement.

w3, Linkcat, kdz are mafia, according to dice roll. Solved game.

This list seems good, I trust in your dice rolls.

[iancudorinmarian]

TorB is right. I derped.

[moehrpi]

A reminder to Cop that you don’t have to use ability tonight as there is no nk

I really, really hope you meant medic. Of course cop should use.

OOPS yes I meant medic my bad :cwy:

I would be willing to further argue that if we're going the strat in which Durandal always outs with a guilty, then doc shouldn't use ability this evening. They should save it for tomorrow so Durandal can get at least report out (if it's a guilty) and out another before they die. It's risky, but I would rather have a 1/15 chance to lose Durandal tonight than a 1/1 chance to lose them tomorrow if they out (seeing as how if doc hits Durandal tonight, they can't protect them again tomorrow)(there's a 1/15 chance to hit Durandal but the odds are low both ways regardless)(I would love feedback)

Without external information all we need to do is make it plausible enough that mafia might waste a Nightkill to deter them.

I'm not seeing any benefit to a town role that increases voting power if they cannot also have special insight to alignments. Allowing a player to gain voting power risks them being scum that could wear havoc in a Mylo\LYLO scenario... And town loses if they ever are outnumbered. Actually, what IS the benefit of town abstaining from voting just to boost their voting power?

There's one benefit that has the same effect as a detriment: in the event that there's a maf Durandal that hides, and the game gets into a situation where it's n maf vs n+1 town (like 3 town vs 2 maf alive) a maf Durandal can force someone not to vote and cause the vote to be forced into a NL. To circumvent this, i propose that Bronya saves one vote such that their voting power is 2 and leaves it at that. Obviously this could have drawbacks if Bronya flips maf, but so can't every plan we have.

Durandal's target cannot be voted on but can still vote. Still there are a few roles that can mess with parity.

It's true that the chance of any given role being town is 75%, but the chance for additional roles also being town decreases since the sample size and number of town left in them decreases. So the chance of both being town is even lower.

In a random distribution the chance is roughly 55% for most players, ~75% for cop/doc and either ~80% or 0% for mafia.

Did you take into account that some people have have listed cop or medic on their list, increasing the chance they exist this game

It is pretty likely that both exist. Plus town benefits from mafia believing that they exists.

[DoubleCapitals]

There's more than 1 effective cop role though :^)