Elements Mafia 74 - by skyironsword

[rob77dp]

I presume all are fine with me continuing to make own selections on who to target with my role? To be fair, I haven't exactly done a stellar job so far (the self deprication post kae refers to was legit self-disgust about subpar doc targeting) but I think it only has value if scum have to guess who I try to save which requires town is in the dark too?? The integral core parts of the plan regarding some outted roles and highly likely scum players does not seem to me to hinge on a doctor being part of the plan ... other than any kill save on town is a good save. 

[rob77dp]

If timpa voted DC day 1, he would've been lynched. That there is all I need to know to make his claims seem weak. But there is no harm in revealing what the optimal strategy is in case they actually are town. It's in town's best interests to kill mafia, so in the unlikely case they are town, I'm telling them exactly what they can do to prevent what should otherwise be regarded as an almost guaranteed loss.

The first night portion of timpa's role claim would have fit oh so well with him voting DC too. I even prodded him about "hey how about voting DC" at some point and he politely declined with a deflection that appears to me completely counter-positional to his claimed DC scumread (that is, his role claim indicates his N0 action was due to scumleaning DC but all his voting and posting is opposite to such a stance being real).

[TheonlyrealBeef]

I presume all are fine with me continuing to make own selections on who to target with my role?

Even scum might be a good target with Raiden Meis on the loose. As long as at least one of them is scum, they can deflect your ability. Pre-planned is a bad idea for sure.

[TheonlyrealBeef]

Even scum might be a good target with Raiden Meis on the loose.

I'm not sure Nightkill can even be intentionally used on another mafia with the intent to deflect it with Raiden Mei, though. So it's more likely scum would just pick some town that they think will not be protected to use the nightkill on. Though "that they think will not be protected" just gained a whole new dimension by pointing it out

[Coffeeditto]

lol well role claiming didnt do much.

Dying wish? Lynch coffee
Regrets? No Ragrets
Suspected Mafia? coffee/super active person/probably moe

Lynching me is just going to show you that rob and torb start wagoning me and people jump on and off.

TBH if i live, i spam coffee with my role.

I'm still uncertain as to why he tunneled me so hard this game, and I know he flipped town but this reads scummy anyway. weird weird weird

Well, that didn't go very well. Anyway, since I'm already considered town by most and am a juicy nightkill target, let me sweeten the deal: hard claim Emma Planck.
N0 target: Durandal, I'm keeping the result a secret for now.
N2 target: Raiden Mei, there were TWO results. One of them must be Seele Vollerei.
If you plan to out use Cecilia + Thread of Fate to kill two players, know that the chances of at least one being scum and purposefully interfering are extremely high.

this leaves me wondering why you weren't nightkilled already, but i town read you very much for outing all of this without needing to. the double raiden is very concerning. i'm glad we discussed the possibility earlier.

Spoiler for quote:

Well, that didn't go very well. Anyway, since I'm already considered town by most and am a juicy nightkill target, let me sweeten the deal: hard claim Emma Planck.
N0 target: Durandal, I'm keeping the result a secret for now.
N2 target: Raiden Mei, there were TWO results. One of them must be Seele Vollerei.
If you plan to out use Cecilia + Thread of Fate to kill two players, know that the chances of at least one being scum and purposefully interfering are extremely high.

I'm going to get food right now, but this is interesting. Very interesting. Thank you torb. Hopefully someone sends you a health checkup, but we dont even know if the doctor is in.

There are at least two, the Raiden Mei and Seele Vollerei.

I wonder, wouldnt it be worth asking everyone to roleclaim and then use this as the slip?

What about this?

They wouldn't lie about their roles now that they've already been outed. But depending on whom claims when, the others still have options to choose from and lie. I don't think publicly outing cop and 2-3 medics along with myself is the best idea. Especially when you don't know their alignment. Allows mafia to just pick off the ones that are not mafia.

at this point so many people have claimed their roles that unless people are roleswapping (which is scummy according to the majority of us, I guess?) then whoever the mafia is can pick through us and figure out who is or isn't dura or medics.

Spoiler for Hidden:

Spoiler for quote:

Well, that didn't go very well. Anyway, since I'm already considered town by most and am a juicy nightkill target, let me sweeten the deal: hard claim Emma Planck.
N0 target: Durandal, I'm keeping the result a secret for now.
N2 target: Raiden Mei, there were TWO results. One of them must be Seele Vollerei.
If you plan to out use Cecilia + Thread of Fate to kill two players, know that the chances of at least one being scum and purposefully interfering are extremely high.

I'm going to get food right now, but this is interesting. Very interesting. Thank you torb. Hopefully someone sends you a health checkup, but we dont even know if the doctor is in.

There are at least two, the Raiden Mei and Seele Vollerei.

I wonder, wouldnt it be worth asking everyone to roleclaim and then use this as the slip?

What about this?

They wouldn't lie about their roles now that they've already been outed. But depending on whom claims when, the others still have options to choose from and lie. I don't think publicly outing cop and 2-3 medics along with myself is the best idea. Especially when you don't know their alignment. Allows mafia to just pick off the ones that are not mafia.

no not now, i meant why not ask for a role claim before reveal :/

That would still out all the power roles to mafia, which I didn't think to be a good idea. I was already being considered for protection anyway, so that does not change much. If anything, I'm more curious why DoubleCapitals did not already claim.

Would mafia give themselves a second Raiden? I didn't liek the thought from mafia perspective but there aren't too many other roles that you want to have. If not there is at least one town Raiden / semi-doc.

I trust ian to be town, so I want him to use his ability.

Target should be preset, so that Raiden Mei interference is either intentional and scum or non-existant. I had a theory on whom Raiden is (town) and whom Seele, but when I checked lynch votes, it didn't make sense for Seele to be the Nightkill sink from their perspective.
Raiden Mei allows mafia to bypass Fu Hua protection and divert Durandal onto a different target. It is incredibly useful as mafia. If this happened to Durandal, now might be a perfect time to claim so we can hang the original targets. Otherwise, it would not have made sense to claim this as Durandal as it would out their identity but not that of the perpetrator. Ignore this topic altogether if this did not happen, I already know whom you are, others need not know.

Trusting you on this one. I am Durandal and targeted DC N0.

okay nevermind then.

If we just traded two power roles for two scum, things are looking good. But you must really not use any vig roles in the meantime if BOTH Raiden Mei and Seele are scum. Fu Hua cannot be relied upon, either. The fact that Coffee kept hammering mafia Raiden is also very suspicious from my point of view, like he already knew...?

in that case, I won't because the possibility of redirection is too high with two raidens of unknown alignment in the game. as far as knowing that there was a mafia raiden, that would entail me being an investigative role (being in moe's place with the same thing happening), or outing the possible mechanics of my purported maf team to the town which would not go over well i would think.

N0: Oa and DC. Even tho there is no NK, we still have Rozalya to worry about. Oa looked like someone that wouldn't be a doc top priority (I'd say Link and rob were these), but still useful to town - (which is more or less the reasoning for the N0 in last game). DC on the other hand seemed expendable (mostly shitposts there).

so you drove away the dura investigation and gave DC raiden? seems more intentional than not that those two line up

------> I am very hard (like 95%) feeling you were just giving scumbuddy!DC a shiny scum-useful ability ASAP on N0 while also making sure he didn't get harmed early.

what he said

Yeah TorB's right, I'm Seele, I got slapped N0 with Raiden, and I didn't use my ability all game, because that would be stupid, and I already implied I didn't since D1

you implied that you didn't use your ability since D1 even though you had just gotten it??

Spoiler for Hidden:

what's my ability usage looking like tonight friends

Unless Raiden and Seele are both town, or all three of you are scum, you cannot rely on hitting the proper target. Do not use. We have a lot of info now, but I do not think we can rely on our roles to vig mafia this game.

I'm not sure if this is exactly how it works, but if he's redirected, it would be his first shot on anyone it redirects to but me, so it shouldn't vig them, right?

Right, but if Raiden/Seele are scum and Coffee is town, agreeing on a target allows Cecilia to be redirected onto you, killing you.

Well, he can probably target someone else at random then, and hope that the ability is not redirected. Also, if they use the ability like that, they can't redirect the NK as well, unless they have both Seele and Raiden.

I would rather not risk something like this until we have raidens either confirmed town/maf (and lynched or killed if maf) because the chance of me being redirected onto you is still there, and doubled if raiden/seele is a maf team. i would ideally like to hit DC but that's just too easy for them to say syke to.

The only way I can see us not lynching Coffee tomorrow is if someone has a concrete lead on a different scum member or he kills himself. Killing yourself instead of mislynch is a pro town move.

let me know how to do that and i sure will. do you mean vig into a flash counter?





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Even scum might be a good target with Raiden Meis on the loose.

I'm not sure Nightkill can even be intentionally used on another mafia with the intent to deflect it with Raiden Mei, though. So it's more likely scum would just pick some town that they think will not be protected to use the nightkill on. Though "that they think will not be protected" just gained a whole new dimension by pointing it out

Agreed, and not a problem. But what about number three? If it is really Coffee, then he is the most dangerous one. Raiden Mei just messes with Fu Hua, but not much else.

kae, a lot of Fates are being entrusted to your hands these next hours. Godspeed in your responsibilities with this information.

I am Fu Hua. I have used every night. I very much prefer, very very much prefer not to reveal targets. At least this way there is a chance to bluff or double bluff or something scum about where I target.

if I am reading this correctly, with raidens, mafia can confirm kills ignoring doc saves because of the priority. I think I investigated this earlier:

-The nightkill has no targeting restrictions. You may attempt to nightkill a Herrscher, though this will rarely be helpful.

Raiden Mei Phantom Image (ER) Target exactly two players. Tonight, anything that targets the first player affects the second player instead, and vice versa. This includes the nightkill.

Spoiler for Priority:

Abilities will be resolved in the following order. Death will not stop abilities from being used on the current night. Once an ability has resolved, its effect will last for the stated duration, even if the user dies.

• Phantom Image
• Rose Petals
• Time Fracture
• Consecrate Ground
• All other abilities
• Red Thread of Fate
• Nightkill
• Abyssal Flower
• Typhoon Cutter
• Chain Lightning, Field of Blades, Idyllic Dreams, Theory of Relativity*

so here, the mafia can target one of their team with the nightkill and have it redirected to anyone while redirecting any doc abilities onto themselves it seems.

[rob77dp]

And my main point to get on here was to say that part of Sub's claimed role's description is that a blocked ability gets notified:

Failed abilities always produce a notification

I think that at some point either N0 / N2 or N1 a scum!Sub would have probably used his ability covering my probably doc-save targets. I can confirm NOT receiving any failed target notifications and nobody else has claimed one either to this affect. My evidence available to me is that Sub is truthful about role usage if his claimed role is his real role. I think scum!Sub would have used by now too - so I take it a step further and lean fairly heavily on Sub being town.

towns
kdz
TorB / moe
kae / Sub

some scum equity but less likely than the lower list
Cal / iancu / www3

scummy POE
Coffee
timpa
DC

We should be trying to kill from the bottom up and save less specifically and more generally from the top down, in my opinion.


ALSO, regarding the various Raidens / Cecilia / Kallen planning, keep in mind some unclaimed roles MIGHT be in the game Himeko / Liliya / Mal (order of potency against the plan) that could disrupt the plan. I believe one of those to be in capable town hands though, but still that first one I think might have a way to be a useful part of a town plan with (against) the Raidens?? I also think a skillful use of the 2nd (Liliya) could be part of the plan to keep a scum Raiden from being rogue?

1. Could we plan for both Raidens (timpa / DC) who we think are likely 1 or 2 scum target Coffee and each other; with a ?Himeko? (may or may not be kdz?) targeting Coffee; and kae targets the trio of timpa/DC/Coffee.

* Raiden!timpa --> targets Raiden!DC + Cecilia!Coffee
* Raiden!DC --> targets Raiden!timpa + Ceceilia!Coffee
* Tesla!kae --> targets Raiden!timpa + Raiden!DC + ?Himeko?kdz
* Himeko!kdz --> targets Cecilia!Coffee

This would mean if timpa/DC are both teammates of Coffee then both holster? If one of timpa/DC is town then one holsters?

^-- I tried coming up with an alternate plan that includes/accounts for unknown final role being any of the three unclaimed roles... but I find flaws each time I rethink it. I'm going to stick to doing my own doc mind games thing, and leave the role madness planning stuff to other professionals (I am NOT a role madness type of player or planner!)...

I'll be following along during the day and chime in as I can but otherwise it will be later that I might make a few more posts.

[TheonlyrealBeef]

The only way I can see us not lynching Coffee tomorrow is if someone has a concrete lead on a different scum member or he kills himself. Killing yourself instead of mislynch is a pro town move.

let me know how to do that and i sure will. do you mean vig into a flash counter?

Yes. Though, thinking about it, just asking you to holster with you using your ability and considering a Cal vig a scum out is better, especially since there is a lack of consensus on the third mafia member if DC and andre are both scum. As long as you do not use your ability, there is no reason to lynch you and we will have two more days to think about other people that could be scum while going for the most likely targets first.

if I am reading this correctly, with raidens, mafia can confirm kills ignoring doc saves because of the priority. I think I investigated this earlier

Right, it seemed a bit obsessive, but I might be reading too much into it.

[TheonlyrealBeef]

Well, that didn't go very well. Anyway, since I'm already considered town by most and am a juicy nightkill target, let me sweeten the deal: hard claim Emma Planck.
N0 target: Durandal, I'm keeping the result a secret for now.
N2 target: Raiden Mei, there were TWO results. One of them must be Seele Vollerei.
If you plan to out use Cecilia + Thread of Fate to kill two players, know that the chances of at least one being scum and purposefully interfering are extremely high.

this leaves me wondering why you weren't nightkilled already

To be fair, I would have tried to push against a Raiden lynch if it weren't for moehrpis reveal, since they are semi-docs.

[worldwideweb3]

Yh imo we don’t need to do any silly night shenanigans. Lynch Andre then DC then see who’s the third one.

[killsdazombies]

I think if kdz holstered n1 we can safely assume that dc is scum and they have a core of lighning, which hasnt been used by any of my true targets n2. andretimpas claim is similiarly shaky independently, as it requires mw or coffee to be targeted by dc last night, his n0 reasoning is not convincing+ he seems more focussed on his own defense rather than being happy that DC is pretty much outted at last.

I used my ability on n1

[kaempfer13]

ok that only leaves one unexplained ability then, which can be core of lightning, dc using it after all or d2d having weird timing or fakeclaims. Eh perhaps we cant be sure that dc is scum just yet, but it seems likely still

[TheonlyrealBeef]

I've been trying to analyze lynch votes to see if it could help determine a third mafia to fit a DC/timpa team.

Day 1 has ended.

Spoiler for Final Vote Tally:

dawn to dusk (1) - killsdazombies
DoubleCapitals (4) - Calindu, Coffeeditto, rob77dp, Submachine
No Lynch (1) - shockcannon
MasterWalks (1) - moehrpi
worldwideweb3 (1) - andretimpa
shockcannon (6) - Naii_the_Baf, DoubleCapitals, MasterWalks, iancudorinmarian, Linkcat, TheonlyrealBeef
Submachine(1) - worldwideweb3
iancudorinmarian (2) - PlayerOa, kaempfer13

Night 1 will begin shortly. Please wait warmly.

Looking at this, Cal, Coffee, rob and Sub all seem unlikely mafia suspects if the scum team truly consists of andre and DC. The later they boarded the DC wagon, the less credit they get for it if DC flips scum from my point of view.

Day 2 has ended. Again.

Spoiler for Final Vote Tally:

iancudorinmarian (2) - andretimpa, killsdazombies
rob77dp (1) - MasterWalks
worldwideweb3 (2) - iancudorinmarian, Naii_the_Baf
Naii_the_Baf (4) - worldwideweb3, PlayerOa, TheonlyrealBeef, kaempfer13
MasterWalks (3) - Calindu, DoubleCapitals, moehrpi
DoubleCapitals (2) - Coffeeditto, rob77dp

Night 2 will begin shortly. Please wait warmly.

timpa voted ian, from the flow of votes it seems to have been with intent to kill. Additional town points for Coffee and rob if DC flips scum.

Looking at lynch voting it seems I was wrong, Coffee (and rob) just don't fit a DC team. I was already town leaning them before and kaempfer13 and moehrpi get town reads from me for solving. andre and DC both had their votes on w3 for a while day 1, so that does not make a lot of sense for me either.
kdz has to be town if we assume moehrpi is town, only an exact team of andre, moehrpi and kdz allows him to be scum from my point of view (the DC Seele logic means maf moe requires that redirect). Still, moehrpi would have had no reason to reveal the N0 redirect.
Coffee and rob could potentially fit an andre team, but this option only feels worth exploring after andre flips scum and DC flips town. More importantly, rob should already have been NK-ed by then. My ability is practically useless now, making only moe higher priority to NK.
ian and Sub seem like the best fits if andre and DC both flip mafia. ian's claim of being able to target two players other than himself is meaningless when you have two Raiden mafia buddies.