Elements Mafia 74 - by skyironsword

[rob77dp]

dawn to dusk (1) - killsdazombies
DoubleCapitals (4) - Calindu, Coffeeditto, rob77dp, Submachine
No Lynch (1) - shockcannon
MasterWalks (1) - moehrpi
worldwideweb3 (1) - andretimpa
shockcannon (6) - Naii_the_Baf, DoubleCapitals, MasterWalks, iancudorinmarian, Linkcat, TheonlyrealBeef
Submachine(1) - worldwideweb3
iancudorinmarian (2) - PlayerOa, kaempfer13

Final Day 1 Vote Tally...
The lead up to this appears to have been a three-way between DC, www3 and town!shock, then three-way race between DC, town!shock, and iancu, and finally rested as a narrow town!shock lynched over close second on DC.

I believe there is something telling in there - in how the wagonomics worked out. Can't put my finger on it yet, but I want to revisit or come back to it when I can, or if someone else has thoughts on it too. If those really were/are all town wagons then at least one, probably two, scum could have been slacking around the _whole_ time of that occurring while being present. Dunno, have to run out now but getting this in the record as a bit of a bookmark so I might come back to it / restumble upon it again to flesh out if warranted.

[rob77dp]

MW - Oa only knew the three roles he learned on N0, I don't think his role description as Cocolia included further investigations... I've forgotten why you scumread coffee and hence am unclear why you're voting him as your counter-wagon?

[MasterWalks]

No, he wouldave had the 3 roles from N0. +ian hard claim. +shock, d2d, link, naii death reveals. That makes 8 roles.

[MasterWalks]

EBWOP: Granted his 3 N0 rolls couldve been the deaths in which he would have less than 8. Still, he had more than we did and could use process of elimination

[MasterWalks]

I've forgotten why you scumread coffee and hence am unclear why you're voting him as your counter-wagon?

Here, let me show yall this post. People mightve missed it. I should just make it my forum signature at this point since THIS IS THE SECOND TIME IM POSTING IT ON THE SAME PAGE AS THE LAST TIME AND THE 4TH TOTAL TIME I HAVE QUOTED IT.

Spoiler for Hidden:

I'm left to continue talking to myself for a bit longer before I have to leave again - luck you!

MW - what is this? You're scumreading me because Link was the NK?? That doesn't compute (trying to avoid WIFOM scenarios here, but eh)... you have no other stronger scumleans or suspiciouns at this point now that shock is dead whom you say you scumread for redirecting kae on N0 as now-flipped-town!Rita-shock? Then you don't really want to lynch either of moe or myself, your top two scumreads... What gives? Seems quite shaky to me... but it is certainly appreciated (or more) that you're putting things out there [alignment TBD].

You engaging in this much conversation is making me townlean you now. I do still feel iffy about you and the link NK but your engagement outweighs that.

Read List

V
PlayerOa: Willing to bet duran woulda left some sorta hint after Oa was investigated if he was Maf.

N+
TORB: Laid the gameplan out early on. Engaged and very towny. I still believe that as knowledgeable he is about everything, that could be due to having another pad to discuss this. Only reason hes not in V.
Kaempf: Open about being targetted. Helpful and acts pretty normal.
KDZ: Honestly seems kinda confused, going with the flow. Maybe under the radar a bit but is seeming pretty normal.

N
Everyone not listed: Seem normal

N-
Moe: Has really been rubbing me the wrong way all game. Only a very slight scum read that a bit superstititous but still, gut feeling for now.
Rob: Been vocal about this already. Gut feeling about Link NK but i didnt want to list him in the everyone else catagory.
Cal, Naii: Inactivity is scummy at this point in the game. Cal literally has less posts than shock, the first kill.
Sub: Suspiciously confused. Maybe im remembering too much from early early game but man, really unlike you.

N--
Coffee: REALLY dont like the promise to protect then failing to do so. Almost feels like you said you would so that he didnt get targeted by anything else as to not disrupt the kill. Like roleswapping or not, thats kinda scummy thing to do. Also, id like to point out him telling info roles to not reveal anything. There are only 3 mafia this game. A mafia kill now would set us FAR ahead. Info roles could be killed off before sharing as we are already 3 town down.



iancudorinmarian (3) - TheonlyrealBeef, andretimpa, killsdazombies
DoubleCapitals (1) - rob77dp
worldwideweb3 (2) - iancudorinmarian, Naii_the_Baf
Naii_the_Baf (1) - PlayerOa
killsdazombies (1) - worldwideweb3
Coffeeditto (1) - MasterWalks

[Coffeeditto]

N--
Coffee: REALLY dont like the promise to protect then failing to do so. Almost feels like you said you would so that he didnt get targeted by anything else as to not disrupt the kill. Like roleswapping or not, thats kinda scummy thing to do. Also, id like to point out him telling info roles to not reveal anything. There are only 3 mafia this game. A mafia kill now would set us FAR ahead. Info roles could be killed off before sharing as we are already 3 town down.

hello

i wanted to start off apologizing for people seeming to have ignored you, that's fucked and happened to me this game too (@last night trying to figure out an action)

the promise to protect was just as wifom as the brazen cop claim from link, and there were far more important people to protect based off of the knowledge we had at that point in the game anyway (Oa who was soft clear).

it's not scummy because why would the doc protect link anyway in that scenario? unless they for some reason had info that he was theresa which none of us did at the time, then like i said earlier, there were better options. i don't think anyone including myself believed him to be cop but it seems to me now that those were some of link's weird mind games going on, claiming cop when he's actually cop.

share where i said info roles should not release any info period please

[MasterWalks]

share where i said info roles should not release any info period please

Town Raiden Mei can also protect confirmed town power roles this way. Depending on whom you redirect the nightkill to, it might even kill mafia. You might redirect the medic, but if the medic protected the target that would be nightkilled, it will still protect the new target and prevent a nightkill from taking place. The main problem is redirecting town vigis onto other town or Raiden Mei being scum. I see no reason not to use it. A random redirect from a likely NK target changes the chance of mafia getting NK-ed from 0% to something more. It's still a minor chance, but an improvement.

For the specific case of nightkill on a mafia and redirecting it onto someone else... there is only one Fu Hua at most, since a town Fu Hua would not know whom is mafia, there is little benefit to go through such lengths yet, I'd think.

Until we have our investigative roles out with their reports (which should not happen yet) it's dangerous to possibly redirect onto Dura or other investigative roles like Emma and Theresa. The odds are both 3/14 for a redirect onto either. I think it comes down to what risks we're willing to take, but I will admit the redirect makes it possible to kill mafia. It probably is more beneficial to us for the redirect to happen, as it's possible that we hit mafia like you said.

That being said, the mechanics I'm talking about are if the mafia night kill one of their own AND redirect (in the case of mafia!Raiden) onto a target from there. Because all targeting gets switched, that means not only will the nightkill always go through, but if they hit someone with doc protection, the mafia gets a free protection from town vig hits.

[Coffeeditto]

share where i said info roles should not release any info period please

Town Raiden Mei can also protect confirmed town power roles this way. Depending on whom you redirect the nightkill to, it might even kill mafia. You might redirect the medic, but if the medic protected the target that would be nightkilled, it will still protect the new target and prevent a nightkill from taking place. The main problem is redirecting town vigis onto other town or Raiden Mei being scum. I see no reason not to use it. A random redirect from a likely NK target changes the chance of mafia getting NK-ed from 0% to something more. It's still a minor chance, but an improvement.

For the specific case of nightkill on a mafia and redirecting it onto someone else... there is only one Fu Hua at most, since a town Fu Hua would not know whom is mafia, there is little benefit to go through such lengths yet, I'd think.

Until we have our investigative roles out with their reports (which should not happen yet) it's dangerous to possibly redirect onto Dura or other investigative roles like Emma and Theresa. The odds are both 3/14 for a redirect onto either. I think it comes down to what risks we're willing to take, but I will admit the redirect makes it possible to kill mafia. It probably is more beneficial to us for the redirect to happen, as it's possible that we hit mafia like you said.

That being said, the mechanics I'm talking about are if the mafia night kill one of their own AND redirect (in the case of mafia!Raiden) onto a target from there. Because all targeting gets switched, that means not only will the nightkill always go through, but if they hit someone with doc protection, the mafia gets a free protection from town vig hits.

fair enough

[Coffeeditto]

i'd like to think that in a scenario where there's a mafia!Hua or a mafia!Raiden, then there would be no way for the informational roles to be saved, and because we're not sure about there these alignments lie, i thought it would be better until they either had more reports or someone flipped scum. at the time, there was only a maximum of 1 report from any given role. now it would be safe to out important and useful reports.

[kaempfer13]

Feels as though robs iq dropped by at least 20 points. Then again  he did some stupid shit last time as well, maybe I just notice it more now that it took longer to see a reason to tr him.

What does this mean? Why do you feel a need to have to townread me? After all I could be scum, or at least from a town's initial and somewhat on-going perspective I could be.

What w3 said. Look at you ignoring important stuff continously. As for why I tr you after all, its the late attempt to save naii and your derps seem genuine.But cant you pay a bit more attention now?

[kaempfer13]

Another reason why I just want to tr you, is that chances of you providing actual content is higher than most.
Unfortunately so far, half your posts are asking stuff you could just read up and the other half is mostly desperately trying to justify clinging onto your initial reads or making pushes based on stuff I dont consider ai at all.

Also (unrelated, but since I'm already talking to you) I was very surprised that you were fine with Coffee holstering, considering you play on mu. 2 popular setups there are cop13 and vig13, both of which are considered equally balanced. Basically, doing the lynch and alignement reveal in one go is equal in power to having to claim your findings and spent the lynch on scum in return for al your town targets living.
Now, part of that ofc is that the vig never has to out, which doesnt apply to cecilia, but still holstering is wrong.

[kaempfer13]

dawn to dusk (1) - killsdazombies
DoubleCapitals (4) - Calindu, Coffeeditto, rob77dp, Submachine
No Lynch (1) - shockcannon
MasterWalks (1) - moehrpi
worldwideweb3 (1) - andretimpa
shockcannon (6) - Naii_the_Baf, DoubleCapitals, MasterWalks, iancudorinmarian, Linkcat, TheonlyrealBeef
Submachine(1) - worldwideweb3
iancudorinmarian (2) - PlayerOa, kaempfer13

Final Day 1 Vote Tally...
The lead up to this appears to have been a three-way between DC, www3 and town!shock, then three-way race between DC, town!shock, and iancu, and finally rested as a narrow town!shock lynched over close second on DC.

I believe there is something telling in there - in how the wagonomics worked out. Can't put my finger on it yet, but I want to revisit or come back to it when I can, or if someone else has thoughts on it too. If those really were/are all town wagons then at least one, probably two, scum could have been slacking around the _whole_ time of that occurring while being present. Dunno, have to run out now but getting this in the record as a bit of a bookmark so I might come back to it / restumble upon it again to flesh out if warranted.

Decent theory (though I wish you had done the actual work). People who didnt move their vote since w3 was in the lead day1: timpa, moe, rob, coffee.