Elements Mafia 73 - by PlayerOa

[kaempfer13]

Calindu, do you want to watch us pat each other on the back repeatedly until we vote you or do you have any intention of contributing?

[Calindu]

Calindu, do you want to watch us pat each other on the back repeatedly until we vote you or do you have any intention of contributing?

I'll contribute tomorrow morning to the conversation, then can also contribute on Friday, haven't caught up with everything posted since start of day, so will do that before.

[PlayerOa]

Results from the last Night phase have now been sent.

[Calindu]

Anyways, emotions aside, i think Cal is the last mafia member. Look at the last mafia he played where he was scum. Playing pretty much similar to how he is now. I say we lynch him as our last lynch.

You brought this argument 3 times and every single time I responded to you and told you to look at mafia 71. What happens the next time you bring this argument? That's right, you ignore what I previously said and just say the exact same thing.

This is endgame though, so I just want to make sure I'm not missing anything before I settle on Calindu.

Put your vote on me if you want to settle.

I'll post some thoughts about both of you, '-' means I think that indicates mafia, '+' means I think that indicates town.

Sub
+

andretimpa (4) - Linkcat, Calindu, rob77dp, moehrpi
Linkcat (5) - Annele, kaempfer13, MasterWalks, serprex, shockcannon
Annele (1) - Ge0metry


andretimpa (5) - Linkcat, Calindu, rob77dp, moehrpi, Submachine
Linkcat (5) - Annele, kaempfer13, MasterWalks, serprex, shockcannon
Annele (1) - Ge0metry

- His votes have almost all been late into the day, especially the first few days, no votes days 2 and 3 from the lynchlog.
- Plays in a strange way, different from other times I played with him.
- He sheeped both Link and rob for a long time, normally not a bad thing, but in this instance, it makes sense for mafia to try to sheep a player when their reads are going the wrong direction


Kae

+ Seems to play normally, not getting much of a strange vibe from rereading his posts.
+ Pushed for a Ge0 lynch early on.

- Everyone dropped their suspicions of him after shock's claim, even though shock's flip proved nothing.
- Very late votes usually.


Atm, I'm more inclined to believe it's Sub.

Submachine(1) - Calindu

[kaempfer13]

Ah, it was spoilered. I see now.

Yeah, that does give you some cred, though it was at Night 3, not long before shock revealed his master plan. If I lessen my tinfoil though, all I see is two townreads, and two mafia.

Kaempfer13 (1) - MasterWalks
Ge0 (1) - kaempfer13, Submachine

I cannot vote on both Geo and Calindu, but I would, just to pressure them into the discussion.

Cal, if Sub is the last mafia why do you think he would sheep me here, while MW was still misslynching me and i could also have been easily persuaded to vote you if he insisted?

[Submachine]

Not sure if it amounts to anything, but Calindu visited himself last night. NAI.

I am trying to put a progress behind Day 1 votes.

1. Calindu votes on me because he drew a possible connection of w/w between me and Linkcat, or perhaps because of a disagreement? It is unclear, but it seems he was unsure where to place his vote, and he liked my post the least.

Just because someone attracts a bunch of attention, that does not equal lynch target. Activity leads to more activity. Punishment of activity is bad. Because of this, even if rob or Link say something outrageous, keep them alive please. They are most likely town if they are active, anyway.

What? I agree that we should not punish activity, but in the same time, why should we look the other way when it comes to rob or Link? Are we really that useless without them that we are ok with losing on the spot if they are mafia? From this, all I get is that if you are mafia, they have a higher chance of being too, and same the other way around.

But I also wanted to imply that I only want to keep these people alive "longer", but not indefinitely. Hopefully, by the endgame, all town with lower activity is cleared out by either making them contribute more or by executing them.

Again, activity good, inactivity bad, but this type of behaviour is frustrating to play with casually. Even when I feel like I'm contributing and being fairly active, it seems like it's not enough for everyone and I'm berated for it. Let's just not execute people on the spot because they don't have a bazillion posts, ok?

Voting for Sub for now, but the next person on my list would be rob.

rob77dp (2) - Linkcat, serprex
MasterWalks (1) - DoubleCapitals
TheonlyrealBeef (1) - rob77dp
Submachine (1) - Calindu

2. Geo votes on rob.
Andretimpa votes on MW.
Andre unvotes MW.
Kaempfer votes on Linkcat.
Geo votes on Annele.

3. Then EOD1 begins. Calindu votes on andretimpa, then goes to sleep.

4. I am just in time to save Linkcat.

I LEAVE THE TABLE FOR FIVE MINUTES

andretimpa (5) - Linkcat, Calindu, rob77dp, moehrpi, Submachine
Linkcat (5) - Annele, kaempfer13, MasterWalks, serprex, shockcannon
Annele (1) - Ge0metry

This has a lot of moving parts, so let's analyze it while I'm here.

First of all, I haven't been voting so far, because I hoped to hide my role by pretending to be Graboid. I already explained earlier how I believed my role was useful enough to conceal.
However, I not only gave up on hiding my role, but in hindsight, to save Linkcat I voted on a top mafia wagon.

As mafia, this makes zero sense. If I don't vote here, Linkcat dies and andretimpa does not come closer to death. However, the timer was nearing zero when I swooped in for the save. I not only stopped a town dying, but I also pressured a mafia from a relatively safe place into a risky situation.

5. Linkcat calls out for ian to place a vote. Ian votes on Annele.
Then after further pressuring from rob, he switches to andre, breaking a tie in Linkcat's favor.

6. But then timpa comes back to vote on Linkcat, creating a tie between them.

7. Rob comes out with the plan to vote out Annele instead of Link and timpa.
Ian votes on Annele.
Andretimpa votes on Annele.
I am still 4 minutes behind and can't see the latest developments.
Those were the last two votes, the day ends in a tie.

Shock was too late, real vote count.

andretimpa (4) - Calindu, Submachine, MasterWalks
Linkcat (5) - Annele, kaempfer13, serprex, shockcannon, moehrpi
Annele (5) - Ge0metry, Linkcat, andretimpa, iancudorinmarian, rob77dp

In summary, Geo's votes don't feel like they have substance behind them.
Timpa mainly voted to self-preserve. His early vote on MW was short-lived.
Kae voted on Linkcat and was unwavering about his vote throughout the day.
Calindu created a 3-3 tie by voting on timpa, then went to sleep. (More about this below.)
I saved Linkcat and created a 5-5 tie by voting on timpa, then kept my vote on the highest non-Link wagon.
Then Ian broke the 5-5 tie by bussing timpa. This was a strange vote, but it seems to me he was pressured into it.

The main difference between my vote and Calindu's is the timing. If Calindu was mafia and legit went to sleep, then he still had hope the votes will switch around in the following day.
When I placed my vote, it was at a very relevant time, minutes or even seconds before deadline.

Kae and I seemed to have a reason to place our votes where they were, but Calindu's is a bit vague, and it feels like he wanted to vote me, but Linkcat pressured him into voting timpa, just like rob pressured ian later to do the same thing. More about this below.


While I was going through Day 1, I also found these posts that might be relevant:

@Kaempf, is there a reason why you have not voted? Unless I missed it, you didn't state your intent to not vote like torb and ian. Moe is basically confirmed town, shock has declared wishes to no lynch, and kdz has his birthday as a reason for inactivity.
EBWOP:
I would like to mention also that other players are specifically curious about your vote, from the list of players who have not voted.

I made an attempt (albeit, a weak one) last night to probe kaemp on his lack of vote which at the time of me falling asleep, he had not responded. Just woke up, saw that he has voted. Great.
n-
kaemp - overly defensive as mentioned by others, also only person who's readlist i did not like at all
andre - posts weren't convincing imo but whoever mentioned he didn't try too hard to defend himself or start another train i think is quite interesting

A mafia openly interrogating Kae. It could be mafia banter, or legit laying suspicion on Kae, which would imply not w/w.
Though he did give andretimpa the same classification in his latter post, so banter is possible.

Sub isn't happening, give me your top 3 scumreads.

At this point, excluding Sub, it's rob, andre and you. However, kae's posts since last night give me a strange feeling to be honest.
I'll vote on andre for now, to not hammer the lynch on rob, but I find rob as a valid lynch today as well.

rob77dp (3) - Ge0metry v1.2, serprex, shockcannon
andretimpa (3) - Linkcat, rob77dp, Calindu
kaempfer13 (1) - MasterWalks
Linkcat (1) - Annele

In this post, Calindu claims suspecting rob, andre, Linkcat, and me, and also a poke at Kae. He decided to vote on andre.

If Calindu is town, he listed 5 players, out of which 2 are mafia, and placed his vote on a mafia.
If Calindu is mafia, he listed 5 players, out of which 1 is mafia, and placed his vote on the only mafia on his list.

I am not sure what to do with this yet, but this post encompasses all three of us, so it might be of relevance.

His reasoning against Kae was also this "strange feeling" argument that he is using to vote me now. (Partially. He listed two other things too.)

Why are your scumreads precisely any wagon that happened during the day?

They were on my read list, long before this post, I haven't changed my opinion too much on anyone other than you since then, since I didn't have the time to fully analyse everything.

As for why I voted specifically on andre, I thought rob was at 3 votes before, and I think hammering him when I'm not sure I can be active at end of day is bad. Moreover, if he flips mafia, this pretty much confirms rob and Link to me, and I see that as a big advantage for town.

The parts in yellow perk my curiosity. Now we know that andre was indeed mafia, but I find it strange to specifically pick 1 out of 5 people for this reason. When Link corrected him about who would be confirmed by andre flipping mafia, Cal has already went to sleep.

As I mentioned above, it feels like Calindu wanted to vote me, but he voted on timpa out of pressure. And it also feels like he knew something about timpa's alignment. That, or a very strong hunch. Either way, it's strange.

It doesnt compute, there is no logic

it reads like : andre is probably scum, better vote Annele

This was the part during EOD1 when rob suddenly switched his vote from andre to Annele. Here Kae is almost disappointed that rob's vote is not on andre. (Why would he be disappointed if he knew andre was mafia?) Kae also shows signs of towny confusion.

Why is it 10 PM again? Ugh...

I will only skim the rest of the game.

[Submachine]

Short summary of my current feelings:

Calindu is still n-, but Kae is around n+ now. The part where Calindu calls out the benefits of specifically andre flipping mafia feels the most sus to me so far.

@Calindu: If you are Town, now is the time to realize that your vote is in the wrong place. You were quick to jump the gun instead of joining the discussion, which is sus, but you implied you only voted me because you townread kae more, and not because you scumread me.

Though if you are mafia, your vote makes sense. And judging by how early you voted now and how late you voted on Geo, it looks like this is the case.

[Submachine]

either rob or I have to be mafia. So if you're still convinced rob is town, then lynch me and then come back to this post and read again for the answers to this game.

That's a difficult fight to pick. If you are so sure that kaempfer and I are also mafia, you would be picking one of us instead of rob. Shock's train of thought feels like he bases our alignments on his read on rob. So I have to ask,

@shock: In case rob is actually town, do you still hold strongly to your other two mafia picks? If so, then why are you not pushing us instead of rob? We have so much more dirt than rob, you could easily get away with it. (Quick note: I would hate to protect rob if he was actually mafia here, but in case he is town, I would rather sacrifice myself to prove shock wrong, because I deem myself less useful for town's cause than rob.)

Is this what Calindu meant by sheeping rob? I don't remember sheeping his opinions, and I assumed the reason to keep him alive early has already been clarified [1]. This was the only mid-game rob defending I found from me. And it's also worth mentioning that this is not how I would play as mafia. I would not go ahead the curve to sacrifice myself if I had a team behind me.

Reference [1]:

Sub - I can actually confidently say that I consider Sub town now, his actions all seem to make sense, his ideas are clear and reason well into my head

This made me assume we got to an agreement about why I was trying to keep rob and Link alive early game.

- He sheeped both Link and rob for a long time, normally not a bad thing, but in this instance, it makes sense for mafia to try to sheep a player when their reads are going the wrong direction

Again, if the above example is what you meant by sheeping rob for a long time, it would not make sense to sheep them by throwing myself in front of rob as a shield. Knowing that I'm town, I realized that shock's "90% correct" mafia team was inaccurate, and I was willing to prove him wrong before it all went bad - as it eventually did. If I was mafia here, I would not be able to sheep them for going in the wrong direction. It would actually turn them off from their wrong courses, which would be double bad for mafia.

[Submachine]

I understand everyone is busy at this time, so I will wait until 3 hours before deadline. If no developments until then, I'm placing my vote on Calindu.

[Submachine]

I understand everyone is busy at this time, so I will wait until 3 hours before deadline. If no developments until then, I'm placing my vote on Calindu.

Or rather, I'm placing it now, and remove it later if I see a good reason for it.

Submachine(1) - Calindu
Calindu (1) - Submachine

[Calindu]

Ah, it was spoilered. I see now.

Yeah, that does give you some cred, though it was at Night 3, not long before shock revealed his master plan. If I lessen my tinfoil though, all I see is two townreads, and two mafia.

Kaempfer13 (1) - MasterWalks
Ge0 (1) - kaempfer13, Submachine

I cannot vote on both Geo and Calindu, but I would, just to pressure them into the discussion.

Cal, if Sub is the last mafia why do you think he would sheep me here, while MW was still misslynching me and i could also have been easily persuaded to vote you if he insisted?

v
MasterWalks

n
kaempfer13

n-
Calindu

w
Ge0metry v1.2

How can Sub ever try to misslynch you with this readlist posted not a long time before, with nothing significant to point towards you being scum? Sure, he can try to force by persuading MW further, but surely he outs himself on the spot if MW turns his vote around.

Sub isn't happening, give me your top 3 scumreads.

At this point, excluding Sub, it's rob, andre and you. However, kae's posts since last night give me a strange feeling to be honest.
I'll vote on andre for now, to not hammer the lynch on rob, but I find rob as a valid lynch today as well.

rob77dp (3) - Ge0metry v1.2, serprex, shockcannon
andretimpa (3) - Linkcat, rob77dp, Calindu
kaempfer13 (1) - MasterWalks
Linkcat (1) - Annele

In this post, Calindu claims suspecting rob, andre, Linkcat, and me, and also a poke at Kae. He decided to vote on andre.

If Calindu is town, he listed 5 players, out of which 2 are mafia, and placed his vote on a mafia.
If Calindu is mafia, he listed 5 players, out of which 1 is mafia, and placed his vote on the only mafia on his list.

I am not sure what to do with this yet, but this post encompasses all three of us, so it might be of relevance.

His reasoning against Kae was also this "strange feeling" argument that he is using to vote me now. (Partially. He listed two other things too.)

Why are your scumreads precisely any wagon that happened during the day?

They were on my read list, long before this post, I haven't changed my opinion too much on anyone other than you since then, since I didn't have the time to fully analyse everything.

As for why I voted specifically on andre, I thought rob was at 3 votes before, and I think hammering him when I'm not sure I can be active at end of day is bad. Moreover, if he flips mafia, this pretty much confirms rob and Link to me, and I see that as a big advantage for town.

The parts in yellow perk my curiosity. Now we know that andre was indeed mafia, but I find it strange to specifically pick 1 out of 5 people for this reason. When Link corrected him about who would be confirmed by andre flipping mafia, Cal has already went to sleep.

As I mentioned above, it feels like Calindu wanted to vote me, but he voted on timpa out of pressure. And it also feels like he knew something about timpa's alignment. That, or a very strong hunch. Either way, it's strange.

The only reason I voted for you previously is because I scumread you more than I scumread kae, I wasn't townreading any of you.

When you said I wanted to vote you, it's true I had my vote on you early on, but at that point I wanted to vote rob, but hammering him would not be good.

either rob or I have to be mafia. So if you're still convinced rob is town, then lynch me and then come back to this post and read again for the answers to this game.

That's a difficult fight to pick. If you are so sure that kaempfer and I are also mafia, you would be picking one of us instead of rob. Shock's train of thought feels like he bases our alignments on his read on rob. So I have to ask,

@shock: In case rob is actually town, do you still hold strongly to your other two mafia picks? If so, then why are you not pushing us instead of rob? We have so much more dirt than rob, you could easily get away with it. (Quick note: I would hate to protect rob if he was actually mafia here, but in case he is town, I would rather sacrifice myself to prove shock wrong, because I deem myself less useful for town's cause than rob.)

Is this what Calindu meant by sheeping rob? I don't remember sheeping his opinions, and I assumed the reason to keep him alive early has already been clarified [1]. This was the only mid-game rob defending I found from me. And it's also worth mentioning that this is not how I would play as mafia. I would not go ahead the curve to sacrifice myself if I had a team behind me.

Sub - I can actually confidently say that I consider Sub town now, his actions all seem to make sense, his ideas are clear and reason well into my head

This made me assume we got to an agreement about why I was trying to keep rob and Link alive early game.

That's not what I mean by sheeping, I consider sheeping when someone blatantly follows all of someone's plans and agrees with them, regardless with what's being said. I agree in your case you are not taking it to an extreme, but it does feel like you did it a lot this game.

I didn't reach an agreement with you about Link and rob, but your last few posts before my readlist resonated well and actually made a lot of sense.

I understand everyone is busy at this time, so I will wait until 3 hours before deadline. If no developments until then, I'm placing my vote on Calindu.

Or rather, I'm placing it now, and remove it later if I see a good reason for it.

Submachine(1) - Calindu
Calindu (1) - Submachine

That's what I actually wanted to see from you, now I'm decently sure you are not mafia.
Scum!Sub doesn't make this vote, because Scum!Sub want me lynched, because he ends up in a stalemate against kae.

kaempfer13(1) - Calindu
Calindu (1) - Submachine

[Calindu]

EBWOP: because Scum!Sub doesn't want me lynched

Just noticed this mistake.