Author

andretimpa · « **Reply #1920 on:** June 08, 2020, 06:45:54 pm »

As promissed, here is my case:

Given what happened, I think the only way shock could still be town (stating from the point of view that I'm town) is this

Quote from: shockcannon on June 05, 2020, 11:47:35 pm

I forgot to mention, that it is possible that some of the players with revealed roles are fate egg also and could be anubis as much as rob. I really don't think that's the case though, but I can always use my psion role to check if someone's role has changed.

I'll come back later to this, but I believe we have already cleared up all the possibilities here (correct me if I'm wrong). If we go purely by logic, there must be at least one mafia between me and shock.

Why a w/w world makes no sense

First, what would be the motivation for a w/w crazy plan like that? I can only think of one (sane) possibility: The idea that if one of us flips wolf, this automatically clears the other. Now I think that town is smarter than that, but to anyone that is skeptical, Annele can solve this for us tonight. If she eats one of us and the eaten one flips wolf, we can afford one more ML. So if you really want, you guys can satisfy your paranoia lynching the other one, without losing the game.

I also argued to rob that the timing (and content) of my crumbing would have been really bad in a w/w scenario

Quote from: andretimpa on June 06, 2020, 04:22:41 am

@rob

About the D3 voting, that's what just popping in sporadically in the thread looks like.

About the tidbit, note that shock's post was 7 hours after mine, are you seriously suggesting mafia would make a plan this loud, on such short notice, while forgetting these details? (I know, WIFOM).

Also, look closer at that paragraph, the bit about you wasn't the main purpose of it. (I can spell it out tomorrow if you want)

Quote from: andretimpa on June 07, 2020, 05:25:20 am

@rob

This is where I crumbed my role (note that I left N1 uncapitalized)

Quote from: andretimpa on June 05, 2020, 01:07:42 pm
@kaemp

At last some activity in this thread. Sorry for just being over there, this has been very low on my priorities these last days. Here's a detail you forgot: since rob targeted serp in n1 he could also have been the anubis.

I didn't target serp because I can't target anyone, I'm a phoenix. Also note that this was made before shock's wall of text, so the only world where this was made preemptively is one where we are w/w, which I already argued against in my previous post.

The way I see it there is 1 mafia between you and shock (echoing everyone, but that's just POE)

Also note that shock was hinting at his phase 3 since D3

Quote from: shockcannon on June 02, 2020, 02:56:40 am

Is it time to unleash phase 3 of my master plan?

Spoiler for nothing here, move on:

Quote from: shockcannon on June 02, 2020, 06:54:59 pm

It's getting awfully close to phase 3 of shock's master plan. Stay tuned.

If we were mafia buddies there would have been talk about this in chat and I would have at least changed the content of the crumbs (instead of something that can be read as shade at rob). My point here is that this is not what coordinated action looks like (specially if you believe the motivation I presented for this play existing in a w/w scenario).

Why the way Anubis has been used points to a Fate Egg

Put yourselves on the shoes of a mafia Anubis, what is your optimal strategy? I'll let torb answer this one

Quote from: TheonlyrealBeef on May 28, 2020, 08:16:26 pm

I also just noticed something seriously messed up about serprex getting targeted by a mafia Anubis (if this is indeed the case), but I'd rather not inform mafia about that for now. Seems like whomever planned this out isn't as insightful as me.

Quote from: TheonlyrealBeef on May 28, 2020, 08:47:39 pm

Whatever.
Anubis takes priority over Guardian Angel, so using it at the same night and target as the nightkill would have rendered the target unable to reveal being targeted by Anubis, while still being immune to healing.

I believe that if you were assigned to this role, you'd have figured that out rather quickly. Your optimal strategy would also involve using this as often as possible, so using it in NK at N0, N2, etc and we'd still be none the wiser (unless a GA came ahead about it)

Now put yourselves on the shoes of mafia FE that rolls Anubis in N1. In an ordinary situation I'd say the optimal play is to just combo it with the NK. However, we had just had our deja-vus revealed, so mafia suddenly has to deal with 2 soon to be confirmed townies. I think sending the NK against the less high-profile of the 2 vus while using Anubis to secure the NK in the second later on was the way mafia found to kill two birds with one stone.

Who could be a Fate Egg

Based entirely on what we have revealed to us

Annele - Regardless of whether or not she is FE, she couldn't have been the one to target serp unless DC lied to us

Quote from: DoubleCapitals on May 31, 2020, 08:49:33 pm

fuckit, sure. I'll claim.

Flayer N0 No one, N1/N2 Annele.

I told you it's worthless.

Only reason why I held back is because I know my role is better used in scum hands, and my paranoid ass don't want no mafia crusaders stealing that role.

kaempfer13 - The whole way the N2 plan worked out makes this impossible, barring Cal/kaemp/shock being the remaining mafia, which is next level tinfoil imo.

Calindu - He used adrenaline in torb in N1 iirc. Regardless, he used adrenaline twice, which is very unlikely for an egg.

Submachine - With the amount of crumbs he revealed about his actions in all nights, I'm fairly confident he's dragonfly.

MasterWalks - He was very public about the results of his role and was never challenged. 100% dragonfly.

andretimpa - You'll have to believe me that I would have made at least something else noticeable with my role if I were a FE (if you put the tinfoil and say I'm the egg Anubis).

shockcannon - The only part of his claim that is verifiable is the N2 psion, which is consistent with him being an egg.

killsdazombies - This would require some high quality theater with ian (MW could have just been a catalyst if you read the thread carefully). Still if this was the plan and kdz was FE in N1, the plan in D3 backfired (due to MW), since it would make more sense for kdz to have been lynched in D3 (lynching kdz would have rid mafia of the Anubis POE, while lynching ian would make kdz suspicious if he's not nightkilled this night) - I find this scenario too risky as a mafia play and highly unlikely. This should only be considered if kdz lives through the night.

Ge0metry v1.2 - He claimed GotP in D3. If you believe shock, he was still GotP in N3, which is unlikely for an egg. So if Ge0 is the egg we are looking for, he and shock are w/w.

killsdazombies · « **Reply #1921 on:** June 08, 2020, 06:48:30 pm »

I disagree sub, Cali doesn't have to be mafia for things to work like that, he could just be going along with the town plan. However, you do point out something I overlooked, which unfoils my tin

Quote from: Submachine on June 08, 2020, 06:10:49 pm

Calindu is mafia, because Kaempfer used Anubis twice in a row.

I must have just had my blinders on, kae would have had to trust that he would get adren for it to work, and while the town was 100% on board with it it seems, (aside from torb) It could have easily went south. They did have some relative safety in that they would have had the psion on their mafia team, so its unlikely another one existed.

As for this "Submachine / MasterWalks [Dragonfly]: And the Dragonflies can check both kaempfer and andretimpa. We would finally get a second opinion of kaempfer's immortality (in case it is still a question whether he is Anubis or not), and we would also make sure a Phoenix doesn't suddenly use an ability. MW, if you agree, who do you want to target from the two?"

That doesn't check kaes immortality. Kae would have to unburrow for a target to be successful if he was a shrieker, proving hes untargetable only proves that he is anubis or shrieker, which is where were at right now.

And while I agree there are much simpler worlds where shock or timpa flips, I'm trying to prepare for the future that I am not a part of. I don't want Kae to get lumped into a town grouping because shock said they were scum. That would be the easiest bait in the world.

Yes I agree, the thread is dying out. I was hoping to post more, but theres no back and forth and I haven't been feeling super great lately.

killsdazombies · « **Reply #1922 on:** June 08, 2020, 06:49:05 pm »

Ah Timpa, its good to see you posting. I was hoping to see something from you

Submachine · « **Reply #1923 on:** June 08, 2020, 07:26:39 pm »

Quote from: killsdazombies on June 08, 2020, 06:48:30 pm

As for this "Submachine / MasterWalks [Dragonfly]: And the Dragonflies can check both kaempfer and andretimpa. We would finally get a second opinion of kaempfer's immortality (in case it is still a question whether he is Anubis or not), and we would also make sure a Phoenix doesn't suddenly use an ability. MW, if you agree, who do you want to target from the two?"

That doesn't check kaes immortality. Kae would have to unburrow for a target to be successful if he was a shrieker, proving hes untargetable only proves that he is anubis or shrieker, which is where were at right now.

That's why I asked him to unburrow tonight. Then Dragonfly would not only succeed, but it would retrospectively see Unburrow happen.

killsdazombies · « **Reply #1924 on:** June 08, 2020, 07:42:06 pm »

Quote from: Submachine on June 08, 2020, 07:26:39 pm

Quote from: killsdazombies on June 08, 2020, 06:48:30 pm
As for this "Submachine / MasterWalks [Dragonfly]: And the Dragonflies can check both kaempfer and andretimpa. We would finally get a second opinion of kaempfer's immortality (in case it is still a question whether he is Anubis or not), and we would also make sure a Phoenix doesn't suddenly use an ability. MW, if you agree, who do you want to target from the two?"

That doesn't check kaes immortality. Kae would have to unburrow for a target to be successful if he was a shrieker, proving hes untargetable only proves that he is anubis or shrieker, which is where were at right now.
That's why I asked him to unburrow tonight. Then Dragonfly would not only succeed, but it would retrospectively see Unburrow happen.

I guess if there was ever a night to check it would be tonight given there is a pretty conf town in MW and a maybe conf town in me (Pls GN). But there is still risk obviously.

Also, I didnt realize dragonfly could see the unburrow action. Its sorta a moot point here but, still interesting none the less.

kaempfer13 · « **Reply #1925 on:** June 08, 2020, 07:58:19 pm »

Alright the important things first:
The way shock presented his case and his absolute silence today outs both him and timpa. now was it a stupid plan? Absolutely. But, town shock would have no qualms pointing out that he likely must have been wrong about timpa after rob flip, same thing applies to scum!shock on a town timpa. the only reason he would hold back is if andre is in fact his scumbuddy and thus just keels over to die for andre to hopefully (for them) to slip through the cracks. there is no way that shock that hasnt completely given up still hasnt posted at this stage yet, he was online since and also around deadline.

kaempfer13 · « **Reply #1926 on:** June 08, 2020, 08:00:50 pm »

Yesterday i thought I was just seeing things, as I have been very unlucky with my scumreads this game and all of my townreads either went "lol, shock v" or"die rob", but now I know that i couldnt have been wrong.

kaempfer13 · « **Reply #1927 on:** June 08, 2020, 08:07:59 pm »

Quite frankly I'm not fond of sharing TorB's fate. I now know how he felt and I'm sorry i made it happen (indirectly). I just had vietnam flashbacks when he went "psych, i can vote after all", as my first game has left a lasting impression on me. Same reason i wrongly defended timpa Day1, I'm not used to the LHF to be chosen as the lynch on day1 to actually be scum and none of his teammates doing anything about it until its almost to late, so i assumed by sheer virtue of him leading the votes for so long that he was the wrong guy.

GIven sub already laid out for me just how convuluted me being Anubis would be under these circumstances, i would like to avoid unburrowing unless you guys really deem it necessary.

Submachine · « **Reply #1928 on:** June 08, 2020, 08:09:00 pm »

Quote from: killsdazombies on June 08, 2020, 07:42:06 pm

Also, I didnt realize dragonfly could see the unburrow action. Its sorta a moot point here but, still interesting none the less.

Now that I read it again, I may be wrong. Unburrow has to be targeting for Dragonfly to see. But we would not get notified with ability failure if kae becomes corporeal.

Submachine · « **Reply #1929 on:** June 08, 2020, 08:13:14 pm »

Quote from: kaempfer13 on June 08, 2020, 08:07:59 pm

Quite frankly I'm not fond of sharing TorB's fate. I now know how he felt and I'm sorry i made it happen (indirectly). I just had vietnam flashbacks when he went "psych, i can vote after all", as my first game has left a lasting impression on me. Same reason i wrongly defended timpa Day1, I'm not used to the LHF to be chosen as the lynch on day1 to actually be scum and none of his teammates doing anything about it until its almost to late, so i assumed by sheer virtue of him leading the votes for so long that he was the wrong guy.

GIven sub already laid out for me just how convuluted me being Anubis would be under these circumstances, i would like to avoid unburrowing unless you guys really deem it necessary.

I agree checking you is barely worth the squeeze. But I would not be too worried about you getting nightkilled, partly because of how sus some people think you are. Mafia would do town a favor of narrowing the PoE.

Plus, imagine all the towncred you would get if you got nightkilled over a specific other role we have. :]

kaempfer13 · « **Reply #1930 on:** June 08, 2020, 08:36:10 pm »

Spoiler for Lynchlog:

Spoiler for Day1:

Spoiler for Day2:

Spoiler for Day3:

Spoiler for Day4:

Well, this was just sad, but it vastly deepens my scumreads, which have been mere PoE the night before, but now shock outted himself and timpa.

kaempfer13 · « **Reply #1931 on:** June 08, 2020, 08:39:56 pm »

Naturally, my kaevision hasnt changed, just incresed in intensity. I townread everyone outside the scumteam, just too lazy to make them all limegreen. ask me about any read you want.

Spoiler for kaevision:

Spoiler for Day1:

Spoiler for Day2:

Spoiler for Day3:

Spoiler for Day4:

Poll

Who played the best mafia?

Author

andretimpa

Re: Elements Mafia 73 - by PlayerOa https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67825.msg1299035#msg1299035

killsdazombies

Re: Elements Mafia 73 - by PlayerOa https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67825.msg1299036#msg1299036

killsdazombies

Re: Elements Mafia 73 - by PlayerOa https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67825.msg1299037#msg1299037

Submachine

Re: Elements Mafia 73 - by PlayerOa https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67825.msg1299038#msg1299038

killsdazombies

Re: Elements Mafia 73 - by PlayerOa https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67825.msg1299039#msg1299039

kaempfer13

Re: Elements Mafia 73 - by PlayerOa https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67825.msg1299041#msg1299041

kaempfer13

Re: Elements Mafia 73 - by PlayerOa https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67825.msg1299042#msg1299042

kaempfer13

Re: Elements Mafia 73 - by PlayerOa https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67825.msg1299043#msg1299043

Submachine

Re: Elements Mafia 73 - by PlayerOa https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67825.msg1299044#msg1299044

Submachine

Re: Elements Mafia 73 - by PlayerOa https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67825.msg1299045#msg1299045

kaempfer13

Re: Elements Mafia 73 - by PlayerOa https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67825.msg1299046#msg1299046

kaempfer13

Re: Elements Mafia 73 - by PlayerOa https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67825.msg1299047#msg1299047