Elements Mafia 73 - by PlayerOa

[MasterWalks]

Can anyone debunk a kae/shock/kdz/placeholder mafia team? Kae and shocks interactions have been weird to say the least. While it is proven (by me) shock targeted kae N0, its only been claimed he was GN. He coulda rolled adrena or FFQ and placed it on his maf buddy.

I would like to ask 1 more time. DID ANYONE TARGET IANCU LAST NIGHT AND IF SO, WAS IT SUCCESSFUL?

I am not Anubis and not Immaterial either, if that's what you want to know.

How are you sure you are not immaterial?

[serprex]

You get a PM listing statuses you've received. Besides poison

[serprex]

gz unconfirmed town, none of you get town cred for analysing why my Annele plan was trash. Try harder next time

If we assume ride-or-die is mw/sub/rob/serp, that leaves 6 players. That leaves each of them as 66% scum. In actuality Annele should never devour DC: as scum she should get the extra NK, as town she should gamble on the remaining 5 players (at that point we can say she almost has an 80% hit rate on scum, much better than rob's loose cannon N0 I might add)

But for us that means 33% of 80%, so only ~27% chance of killing scum. & thus a ~73% chance of killing town (a third of of 20% plus 66%)

Besides, Anubis has higher priority than Oty, so scum could try dodge devour tonight

killsdazombies (2) - Submachine, MasterWalks
Ge0metry v1.2 (3) - rob77dp, killsdazombies, DoubleCapitals
Calindu (1) - Ge0metry v1.2
Annele (2) - iancudorinmarian, serprex

[serprex]

Oh I didn't count properly, I was thinking in terms of there being 10 players, not 10 town. Anyways you can shift the numbers around but you'll end up with similar conclusion with 4:6:4

60% town, 40% scum
55% hitrate if 60% town means 33% scum devoured, 67% town devoured

Better off lynching with ~40% accuracy

[serprex]

Except the option isn't devour or lynch, it's whether we want to insert this devour into our sequence of lynch/NK exchanges. Odds are actually close enough to want to go with it

Besides, we get to decide after today's flip whether to let Annele devour: we can always ask DC to target her tonight if we don't like the odds after EOD3

I really think DC is town. Just can't see Lynchedcat doing anything useful this game

killsdazombies (3) - Submachine, MasterWalks, serprex
Ge0metry v1.2 (3) - rob77dp, killsdazombies, DoubleCapitals
Calindu (1) - Ge0metry v1.2

[DoubleCapitals]

Also Annele wouldn't devour me unless she has like, a death wish

[killsdazombies]

@serp we were getting along together so well :/ What changed bby

[killsdazombies]

Though, if were in the position to move a lynch target, I'd much prefer this one

killsdazombies (3) - Submachine, MasterWalks, serprex
Ge0metry v1.2 (2) - rob77dp, DoubleCapitals
Calindu (1) - Ge0metry v1.2
iancudorinmarian (1) - Killsdazombies

[rob77dp]

Sub - no. I find it completely inadequate to consider a game where that whole train is town. That would mean, presuming you and I as town and just this wagon (for this exercise - otherwise I also hold MW as clear / vv), that the four mafia are among iancu, Annele, timpa, DC, and Ge0.

In fact, you bringing this back up gives me pause about shock. I have been gone from elements mafia for quite a while --- like since back before shock's first time doing it, pretty sure. Did I miss a history between shock and Link at some point? Because looking back at some of shock's push on "unlynchable" town!Link this game is gross. It actually strikes me as exactly something shock rolling scum for the first time here (anywhere? not sure his mafia playing prowess from elsewhere I guess) would set out to do because "f you guys I'm shock and I'm about to be the best there's ever been!" ... Am I way out in left field here? The more I think about how shock does just about everything here, a scum game from here involving pushing for the lynch of Link in the manner he did, and to just about celebrate it when he flipped town, to bluff a green peek on wagonned kae from a fate egg hail mary, -- I just find it less unbelievable and more feasible those are all actually things scum!shock would try. I just don't know yet if I believe TOWN shock would play that way.

MW - I feel like you've posted some in a way that you believe you cannot predict shock but that you have a feel for just what lengths he'll go to in a game ---- thoughts about this, above??

Going full conspiracy theory mode, I entertain the thought of kdz being town, which makes me worried.

Linkcat (6) - shockcannon, Calindu, kaempfer13, serprex, TheonlyrealBeef, Killsdazombies

Assuming kdz is town, we know - or suspect - that serprex and kaempfer are also town, and Torb already flipped town. This leaves Calindu and shockcannon, but their joint effort might have created an unkillable, confirmed town. It feels weird to me that mafia would be okay to follow such a plan, but following that train of thought would result in assuming that shock and Cal are also Town. But is that possible?

@rob, @serp, actually @everyone: Can it be possible that Linkcat was lynched by ONLY TOWN? I have a hard time to believe that.

It is possible that only one of shock/Cal is mafia. Or it is possible that town shock trusted mafia kaempfer so much, that he actually declared him to be innocent by a bluff. (It would not be far from shock to do such thing, he already did that once.) I put on this so-called tinfoil hat to say: And how convenient it is now that kaempfer is forever burrowed, because he can no longer be investigated again. If kaempfer would be mafia, shock would be suspect too, but even if it was a bluff, it is NAI from shock.

Even shock has lower activity during this game than previously. Heck, even rob has lower activity since Link died. This is why I told you to keep him alive longer! But I got derailed.

Someone also said it is also possible that mafia Cal created a second burrowed shrieker, because he expected to exchange one unkillable threat for another.



But if I drop the initial assumption, it is still a possibility that kdz is simply mafia.

[kaempfer13]

Sub, that would be rob, ian, link, andre. Sp3aking of you, why did you vanish 1 minute before deadline and then vote late?

Rob, I am extremely paranoid as to what i would do as town  when I am scum, to the point I barely manage any content. Now, my activity is lower than usual, but that has to do with things I announced before start of game. The telltale sign of me being scum imo is the inability to go hard on people I secretely know to be town, unless they play actually terrible.
Also I would never have expected shock to have gned me and just noticed sooner that mws soft doesnt make any sense at all.
Can give you a link to my scumgame when next Im on a pc

[serprex]

scum:
shock
geo
kdz
annele or ian

geo or kdz are anubis

Tonight DC targets Annele. We flip one of geo or kdz. Then Annele. Then leftover from geo/kdz. Then shock. Then ian

[shockcannon]

Is it time to unleash phase 3 of my master plan?

Spoiler for nothing here, move on: