Oh yeah, was thinking about this earlier but I don't think I got around to posting it yet....
shock/kaempf claim events:
*Caveat: I view shock as a bit of a loose cannon, and as town he really is his own boss in truth (as scum he would act as his own boss but truth is he should be trying to coordinate at least some with teammates).
A. I cannot wrap my mind around a scum!shock + town!kaempf world. kae was dead-to-rights on Day 2 and scum are almost always game for a runaway train like kae's wagon was at one point with like (9) votes on it. I just struggle to see a world where scum!shock really decides it would be better to make that claim on a town!kae and divert onto a Link mislynch path.
*B. I have major doubts about the likelihood of it being w/w. With so many roles still out there and possible, the smart and calculated scum play should be to bus your teammate or stay away if they're both scum because now if one flips red the other gets MAJOR scrutiny. In this scenario, scum!shock was getting a fair amount of town credit at that point in the game so it seems to me w/w would have not waited THAT long to use this risky ploy.
C. Both remaining scenarios are town!shock. It would be VERY strange for a town!shock to make that move if he doesn't ACTUALLY have a green peek on kaempf. It is not a sustainable way to play going around faking peeks just because you think someone is probably town when they are on the chopping block like was the case late on Day 2.
*** shock, this is the point where you need to come clean if you're bluffing, I think. I should NOT waste a peek tonight on you if you're just futzing around trying to save a townread of yours. Scenarios A and B above are the ones that have me concerned because I don't think I'm willing to lose to a scum!shock as outlined in those two. Let's not blow this and have me peeking town you tonight. Care to discuss some as the end of night 2 nears??