Calin, if the mafia team is who I think it is then you actually played the best out of all of them, you just ended up in the bottom half of the POE due to mechanical reasons.
But you are wrong, that's the main problem, not sure what the mechanical reasons are, but please put them forward so I can debunk them.
Also, if me flipping town makes you change your whole view, then please just lynch me next so you actually have a winning chance.
By mechanical reasons I mean that there are so many players that got strong townreads from EoD that you're on the block purely through process of elimination. That's looking a few days into the future, so could change depending on flips and new information. If Anele is mafia you look worse, if not who knows.
You can lynch the confirmed any time you want. If I receive adrenaline the night I unburrow, it will be the only time I can be nightkilled. Since confirmed town is also most likely getting Guardian Angel protection this round (if there are any), it's much safer to NK them a night later while rendered immune.
Combine these two and I don't like my chances of survival if I commit to evolve. So nothing anyone says will change my plan.
A problem with that (Having torb unburrow) is you assume he evolved last night, if he hasn't evolved yet and he does so tonight he will still be burrowed, right?
Shriekers start unburrowed on evolve afaik.
Mafia has 5 confirmed town to Nightkill, they're not going to waste one on you, especially since you might be the last ML they need as a deep wolf.
I think there's a high likelihood that myself or Ge0 dies tonight. I'm going to post my top mafia reads. I suspect if I die mafia will manipulate that to throw shade onto others, so ignore that.
Most likely mafia in my opinion (from most likely to least likely)
1.) rob - otyugh kill N1 has much more reward coming from a mafia than a town, especially when mafia has the option to cast it off as an "optimal town move" and especially when they can use fate egg as an excuse. We don't even know if rob is fate egg. Additionally, we have a lot of questionable vote changes and reads from him. Let's be honest here, this guy had a complete panic meltdown getting votes off Linkcat and trying to swap between Annele and andre. Nothing he's done so far has said town to me. If this guy is mafia otyugh and gets away with just devouring N0 on the most inactive player, we're going to regret never lynching him. Let's not regret it.
2.) Linkcat - Linkcat was the first one to vote on rob, andretimpa, and Annele and has started conversations to get all of them lynched. There have been many deflections by him to other players when people get suspicious of players like rob. I honestly think he started voting rob early to avoid suspicion later and then switched to players like andre and Annele who are less active and easy to prey upon. Linkcat also is certain that there is 1-2 mafia among myself, kaempfer, and Annele when I think that there are 0 mafia here. Also town reads players like sub, rob, etc. who are far from confirmed.Additionally, he starts suspecting players like Calindu and kdz as very likely mafia. Before this point, I was the only one calling them out as very likely mafia. Is this a setup so that when I get Night Killed and flip town, Linkcat has a very easy pathway to pushing these players while looking town himself? Especially if I'm wrong and Calindu/kdz are town, this looks like a great set up for mafia victory.
3.) TheonlyrealBeef - the no vote obvious graboid thing just looks like a great reason to stay out of the spotlight. Also started a ridiculous back and forth with kaempfer, that really only served to distract everyone else and get kaempf to mess up somewhere along the line. Contributions to town have been little to nothing. Had a very interesting take on rob's N0 devour.
4.) KDZ - Hard to read, and feigns low activity/inexperience. Could be accurate, could also be a mafia setting themselves up to go the distance before gaining any attention. Can't say, but if Coffeeditto was really the best devour target N0, then this is likely one of our best lynch targets as well for the same reasoning.
5.) Calindu - Makes one post, disappears. Votes on andre early on, disappears. Responds to specific question aimed at Calindu, disappears. Very easily an under the radar mafia. My stance is moving towards town though after the latest interaction between Calindu and Linkcat. Not going to rule out both being mafia though.
Calin, if the mafia team is who I think it is then you actually played the best out of all of them, you just ended up in the bottom half of the POE due to mechanical reasons.
But you are wrong, that's the main problem, not sure what the mechanical reasons are, but please put them forward so I can debunk them.
Also, if me flipping town makes you change your whole view, then please just lynch me next so you actually have a winning chance.
6.) MW - He's said a lot of things that just don't make sense. I don't want to underestimate his ability to be so confused, but something here is off. I also don't like his voting patterns. The only thing that says town to me is that he voted on Linkcat and stayed on Linkcat for so long before then switching off to andre. I have a hard time seeing that action occur if he's mafia, but again, I have no idea what's going on with this noob.
7.) Double Capitals - mostly memes. Is neutral read on most players. What more could you want as a mafia? However, DC's two mafia scenarios makes a lot of sense to me, and was the line of thought I've had this entire time. In fact, I'm almost too worried about how much our thoughts align. DC also made a previous comment on how crazy it would be for both rob and Linkcat to be mafia. But then we see them both as mafia in DC's 2nd most likely scenario. Where did this sudden revelation come from?
God I wanted to stop reading this after the first sentence so freaking badly, but I pressed on through sheer force of will. Shock, if you want to be useful, imagine a world where I'm town and then give me your reads.
Mafia went with the safest possible Nightkill. To me this means that they think they'll lose if they miss a single Nightkill.
Re: rob devouring serp
Uhhhh, what?
Poll
