Elements Mafia 73 - by PlayerOa

[rob77dp]

TorB - you think my pressuring timpa, who has yet to show back up... so my vote stays where it is for now on timpa. You think it is bussing where I'm pushing, voting, and continuing to push a hard-get-rolling timpa-wagon on a teammate? First, it isn't possible, but if your town I concede that you don't know that yet --- so explain why town!TorB really thinks that's the case??

[Linkcat]

Reminder that I'm the one that pushed the andre wagon, rob only decided to bus after and now he can't back down since he's already committed.

[serprex]

You and Annele need to switch to rob before we mislynch andre.

The issue is I am equally stubborn to not vote rob as serprex is to do so.

[rob77dp]

Haven't posted much due to being asleep and then working all day, sorry.

My quick flip on rob was me going from being convinced he was mafia to realising the other possibilities. If fate egg didn't exist, the only situation that makes sense to me was if rob was mafia, and so I went hard in that direction. Once I realised that fate egg was an option, the two scenarios (rob being mafia or town) are a lot more equal in my mind, so I laid off. I probably swung too hard in the other direction for what were roughly equal possibilities, but Rob's posts at that point read more genuine to me too, especially the fate egg explanation.

Btw sorry for putting the fate egg option out too openly - I assumed that I was the only one who didn't get it (which was why no one else was gunning so hard for rob) so I didn't think there was any harm in mentioning it. Maybe should have thought that through more.

The reasoning I mentioned when I voted for andre wasn't link's but rob's and masterwalk's which had combined in my mind when I made the post. (Looking bad that was phrased rather poorly.) My point was I was suspicious that linkcat might be orchestrating a lynch, but I'd gone through andre's posts at that point and agreed with the sentiment that he'd said enough to avoid inactivity suspicion but nothing of real substance.

Shockcannon's point about how no one seems to be deflecting or defending andre even though he's the lead to be lynched rings true to me, and I'm more suspicious of linkcat that I was before. Reading through rob's posts now that he's not just defending himself, I don't really have a read of him anymore. There's certainly still a reasonable chance he's mafia egg, and I like serp's suggestion.

rob77dp (4) - Ge0metry v1.2, serprex, shockcannon, Annele
Submachine (1) - Calindu
andretimpa (3) - Linkcat, rob77dp
kaempfer13 (1) - MasterWalks

I keep secondguessing my reads, and I fear a lot of the cryptic role stuff is going over my head. I don't like how link seems to be pushing the narrative so much more than others though, and I'd say he's my strongest scumread at this point. Townreads at the moment, aside from moe and serp, are probably torb and shock. I liked what cal was posting a while ago, but he hasn't said anything recently so I'd be interested in his perspective now. I was also leaning town on kae for a while and so the torb wall might make me reconsider things, but this is where I'm at right now.

I struggle to see this type of progression on reading me as genuine, that is, I think it is faked which is what scum have to do to 'pretend' to read players. She had me scummy, then was willing to sheep my read / vote, then has no read of me any more, and then thinks reasonable chance I'm a mafia egg. What?? Also, it is FALSE that andre is an easy wagon or push... a few players have had suspcicion or shade on him and yet he topped out at 3 votes... I don't believe it is a real thought (rather, likely a mafia viewpoint trying to sound real?) timpa is a real wagon. Annele is someone is still a scumread for me, I would vote there too - keeping on timpa another scumread of mine. It makes sense from some things in here possibly Annele/timpa as w/w.

[rob77dp]

Reminder that I'm the one that pushed the andre wagon, rob only decided to bus after and now he can't back down since he's already committed.

You STARTED an andre push, I have a scumread on him and am voting and actively pushing that wagon. You're just sitting on it, really, from where I sit. It's not possible for town to "bus" anyone so you're wrong, I know you're wrong (you may or may not know you're wrong). If things go south and I get lynched here a town!Link revisits how he is playing things. Keep an eye out, if I flip/lynch here.

[TheonlyrealBeef]

TorB - you think my pressuring timpa, who has yet to show back up... so my vote stays where it is for now on timpa. You think it is bussing where I'm pushing, voting, and continuing to push a hard-get-rolling timpa-wagon on a teammate? First, it isn't possible, but if your town I concede that you don't know that yet --- so explain why town!TorB really thinks that's the case??

Why must you keep phrasing things like these as impossible, when they are not? If all three of you voted on the same town we'd get a town info lynch. I'm sure you love the sound of that.

Reminder that I'm the one that pushed the andre wagon, rob only decided to bus after and now he can't back down since he's already committed.

As long as not everyone is convinced (lynch counts show this), it's much easier to keep pretending like this is not even possible.

[rob77dp]

See, the major issue here is that the math is based purely on the kill itself with no mind on the reactions of people, in a game based on reading people.

Ok, but same logic applies to mafia doing that kill. If he's modkilled anyway this is just a waste

Right. So perhaps rob is not being truthful and is using this excuse for his own justification.

Wee wooo, wee woo; you are suggesting here that mafia rob should have eaten a mafia member to get confirmed. This evidently didnt occur. The only people that have information on who they are working with are the mafia (and deja vus, but they obv dont eat people); Also the only way rob would have known if coffee was inactive is if both were mafia. Town rob has no insight on that other than lack of presence in thread.

No? Just that rob Fate Egg Otyugh eating a mafia would not prove anything because that is what he could have done.

Are you arguing that you wouldnt do it despite it being mechanically correct, because you feel it wrong to deny people to keep playing the game longer? Are you even trying to win?

Sure, winning through uncovering the mafia through deduction, that is the fun part, not doing a crapshoot and praying you hit something good. But it is only mechanically correct if you are guaranteed there will be no backfire, you might even get policy lynched.

If the math adds up but you get lynched as town for it afterwards, you just screwed up big time. You can blame me, you can blame the rest of town, I blame the shortsightedness of a potential town Fate Egg Otyugh. But I do not believe rob is one.

No, that is not right and also does not make sense. That would mean mafia killing during the night is essentially the only night killing - it is demonstrably true that town taking kill shots at night is/can be win-con beneficial --- and even when you don't "know" the target is scum!

[rob77dp]

TorB - you think my pressuring timpa, who has yet to show back up... so my vote stays where it is for now on timpa. You think it is bussing where I'm pushing, voting, and continuing to push a hard-get-rolling timpa-wagon on a teammate? First, it isn't possible, but if your town I concede that you don't know that yet --- so explain why town!TorB really thinks that's the case??

Why must you keep phrasing things like these as impossible, when they are not? If all three of you voted on the same town we'd get a town info lynch. I'm sure you love the sound of that.

Reminder that I'm the one that pushed the andre wagon, rob only decided to bus after and now he can't back down since he's already committed.

As long as not everyone is convinced (lynch counts show this), it's much easier to keep pretending like this is not even possible.

No, I am saying I ... I, rob, rob77dp, me, myself - I know it isn't bussing, I know my alignment. I admit you don't know it (if you're town) so a town!TorB may, might, could conceivably actually think I'm bussing. I, myself, as I stated before, ME, I know it is impossible that I'm bussing.

[shockcannon]

rob77dp (1) - serprex
andretimpa (3) - Linkcat, rob77dp, Calindu
kaempfer13 (1) - MasterWalks
Linkcat (2) - Annele, kaempfer13
Annele (1) - Ge0metry v1.2


Alright if you guys don't want to coordinate that's fine. I've already offered way more than I planned to this day phase so I'm out then. Maybe watching the mafia manipulate this entire vote while you're too stubborn to realize it will help you all see the light when Day 2 comes around. Good luck trying to vote out a mafia this round without me.

[Linkcat]

That vote does look scummy with some waffling, but her immediate switch to me looks like a town that just didn't think she could vote somewhere not on a wagon.

[TheonlyrealBeef]

Spoiler for quote:

See, the major issue here is that the math is based purely on the kill itself with no mind on the reactions of people, in a game based on reading people.

Ok, but same logic applies to mafia doing that kill. If he's modkilled anyway this is just a waste

Right. So perhaps rob is not being truthful and is using this excuse for his own justification.

Wee wooo, wee woo; you are suggesting here that mafia rob should have eaten a mafia member to get confirmed. This evidently didnt occur. The only people that have information on who they are working with are the mafia (and deja vus, but they obv dont eat people); Also the only way rob would have known if coffee was inactive is if both were mafia. Town rob has no insight on that other than lack of presence in thread.

No? Just that rob Fate Egg Otyugh eating a mafia would not prove anything because that is what he could have done.

Are you arguing that you wouldnt do it despite it being mechanically correct, because you feel it wrong to deny people to keep playing the game longer? Are you even trying to win?

Sure, winning through uncovering the mafia through deduction, that is the fun part, not doing a crapshoot and praying you hit something good. But it is only mechanically correct if you are guaranteed there will be no backfire, you might even get policy lynched.

If the math adds up but you get lynched as town for it afterwards, you just screwed up big time. You can blame me, you can blame the rest of town, I blame the shortsightedness of a potential town Fate Egg Otyugh. But I do not believe rob is one.

No, that is not right and also does not make sense. That would mean mafia killing during the night is essentially the only night killing - it is demonstrably true that town taking kill shots at night is/can be win-con beneficial --- and even when you don't "know" the target is scum!

You do not need to know the target is scum to have no backfire. Targeting you with vigi if you don't get lynched? No tears from me either way.

[rob77dp]

shock - so I'm no longer scum in yoru book? Is your scumread of me changing right now? It looks like you removed your vote from me... at the same time saying you don't think a scum is possible to lynch today. What's up with that? We all need to be around and present/active at EOD if at all possible... if your'e town, be here, post, vote, read, discuss, etc. Right now, I'd like to read about your progression on your vote removal from me and who you think are scum right now that should be lynched (I presume it changed since you took your vote off)?