Elements Mafia 73 - by PlayerOa

[Linkcat]

Happy birthday bro.

[MasterWalks]

I want a full readslist from the following players:

DC
kaempfer
shock
Calin
MW

I really dont have any heavy scum reads but lll do my best

vv
serp, moe. -no reason not to believe serps claims

v
shock, kaempf -i really do belive one of them is town, if not both, but upon further review on info, could be wrong.

n
DC (really just seeing normal stuff.)
iancu ^
Calin ^
TORB^
Sub (^ for now but could change based on anticipated post)
Rob (hes fate egg. it took long enough. Could be wrong but i dont think that doesnt mean hes not mafia)
kdz (seems normal so far. need more content)
Geo (Normal. Need more content)

N-
Annele  (is really justs saying enough to lay low without inactivity attention.)
Linkcat (really seems like he wants to control the game. Maybe its to start conversation maybe its  O R C H E S T R A T I O N)
Andre (Just reread everything hes posted. He literally adds nothing but super soft reads and looks like hes trying to remain neutral. I dont like that)

[Linkcat]

Thanks, now vote on andre with me so we can get a second wagon going.

[Annele]

Annele - the initial approach she took to scumread me for my N0 felt awkwardly aimed at me... however, the back-down after some explanations occurred felt a little more genuine. A bit "off" feeling to me that the backdown came so easy after so much shade (as a ratio of her total posts, to those shading me). It does though seem possible this is how she approaches reads, but need to see more to feel better/stronger about reading her play.

I was undecided on your move for a while before I posted, but ultimately I came to the same conclusion as torb - having forgotten fate egg, I thought that the less unlikely answer was that you were mafia. I didn't want to go soft and let mafia get away with such a brazen move, hence the shade With fate egg in the mix, and having thought it over some more, I realised that though it's possible you're mafia, town was a lot more likely than I had assumed. I appreciate the explanation for why you chose ditto. Looking at it now, I think mafia would have chosen a target more useful to town (either one who's posting a lot or however they managed to pluck out GN), since you were bound to get heat either way.

You're way over-analyzing Ge0, he's playing exactly like someone dipping their toes back into mafia after a long time and what little content he had felt real. No reason to vote him right now.

I don't think it's necessarily overanalysing geo, geo's posts gave me the same vibe I had when playing as mafia last round. I agree no reason to vote on just yet, but I'm wary of him. andre has a similar vibe without the over-explaining lack of posting, but I completely forgot all his posts until rob mentioned him and I re-read them, which I think makes him more suspicious. I'm not sure how to read linkcat just yet but I agree with the reasoning behind it.

rob77dp (1) - Ge0metry v1.2
MasterWalks (1) - DoubleCapitals
Submachine (3) - Calindu, serprex, rob77dp
adrenatimpa (1) - Linkcat, Annele

I didn't vote before because of the graboid suggestion but I'd like to see what sub has to say before he's killed. There seems to be a lot to this story that I've somehow missed? I'm curious to see how much it will change.

Also hbd kdz.

[MasterWalks]

Thanks, now vote on andre with me so we can get a second wagon going.

stop trying to buddy me.

rob77dp (1) - Ge0metry v1.2
MasterWalks (1) - DoubleCapitals
Submachine (3) - Calindu, serprex, rob77dp
andretimpa (3) - Linkcat, Annele, MasterWalks


I want read list from andre and THE post from sub. id vote both if i could until they respond.

[Ge0metry v1.2]

Can someone explain to me what vv, v, n, w in these readlists mean? Tried to do some short Googling but couldn't find anything. All I can tell is that v = good, n = bad, is that all there is to it?

Posting from my phone and I'm too lazy to quote the messages but:

Re: Rob calling me out
My increase in activity and attempt to read people is all in response to Link asking for more from me. Again, in all honesty, a lot of the discussion has been beyond me and I don't have strong opinions.

Re: Rob asking for my opinion on sub
This is one of those situations where I have no idea how highly I should weigh my suspicions. Do I think his posts are slightly sus? Sure. But I also thought the same of shock, and link, and serp at different times in the thread and they were vouched for by other people. Sub has his share of people saying this is normal behaviour for him and I'm inclined to agree as I don't know how he talks/plays.

I would also like to mention that I'm afraid of seeming too bandwagon-y now and so I don't want to vote? I don't know, once again - completely in over my head right now.

[Linkcat]

Just be as honest as possible. Listen to what others say but make your own decisions. Being genuine will help us townread you, which is the most helpful thing you can do right now. Ask questions about anything you don't fully understand. You seem to already be doing this, so just keep going and you'll get it eventually.

v is villager, n is neutral, w is wolf. Goes from most town to least town.

[DoubleCapitals]

t+
moe - I think this is quite certain
serp - As much as it pains me to say it
t
MW - based off his town reads list and what I see as softing
t-
kae - giving me good vibes in investigating plus MW seems to trust him more than is necessary based on posting alone
Link - I think based on how he discussed stuff with rob wrt to Otyugh and NK it's more likely he's town
rob - Conclusion with the least assumptions makes me think he's town, tho the alternate scenario while plausible is a bit harder to believe
n+
Annele - Pushing onto rob seems quite genuine and would be something I'd do if I were better lol
shock - if MW is town this would also make sense but he hasn't said anything productive
Sub - sounds like confused town more like it
TorB - See: Annele
n
Calindu - Good activity with what I've seen but it's all stuff that is technically useful, but doesn't really shown his opinion of others yet. Out of everyone who doesn't have a readlist would be most interested in him.
kdz - Happy birthday btw
n-
ian - not much to work of but I don't like the vote withholding.
w-
andre - sheeps rob's reads, and I feel like exposing Rob's softclaim looks sketch
Ge0 - kinda weak reads tbh. Say's that he thinks there's no way rob will shift the spotlight to him, but is his hardest scumread? I'll concede he may be trying his best though

I must admit im feel a bit outta my league especially with how fast mafia has become, but I'll do my best to not purely shitpost until I get mislynched. At this point in time I'd nullread me too.

rob77dp (1) - Ge0metry v1.2
Submachine (3) - Calindu, serprex, rob77dp
andretimpa (4) - Linkcat, Annele, MasterWalks, DoubleCapitals

[iancudorinmarian]

re: Link's "I want anything from these players"

I already gave my somewhat short readlist here: http://elementscommunity.org/forum/forum-games/elements-mafia-73-by-playeroa/msg1297105/#msg1297105

I don't have much else to contribute at the moment. If you want my opinion on someone I did not include in the list, let me know and I'll take a closer look at their posts, as I'm too lazy to do that for everyone.

re: DC's "I don't like the vote withholding"

I don't have any particular scumreads at the moment, so if I were to vote, I would literally do the thing I advised against: jumping on bandwagons.

[kaempfer13]

4. You are allowed to vote for No Lynch. You are also allowed to vote for a 1 hour or 24 hour extension. The votes are counted in a separate tally and you may only do one extension per phase.

I would like to note that this is very much a thing, and between there being concerns about rulebreaking, one of the lynch candidates apparently working on the wall of walls on that topic and thus not being able to explain himself for a while and several new reads emerging as well as me myself needing more time to collect my thoughts, I think we should make use of it. in fact it's optimal for town to do that whenever possible, but I dont want to test everyones patience unnecessarily.

[Calindu]

Cal - I really don't like the way he goes to policy, and bad play lynch approach in order to vote me, but reading over the stuff in his posts so far it actually reads like he really just believes that is a fair set of reasons to lynch a player (they aren't by the way). Given his replies and vote/etc. with Sub I really don't see any w/w with Sub (who is a strong scumread for me right now).

I'm not pushing to policy lynch you, I just said that if it were almost anyone else, they would get policy lynched for the play.

Here's my read list

vv

serp, moe - No reason to not believe that

v

TorB - He plays very similar to the way he played last mafia, where he flipped town, very methodical and slow, looking at hard evidence
MW - Again, he plays in a very similar fashion to the way he played town

n+

kae - Helpful to the town, plays as I would expect him to play

n

Ge0 - Not much content, don't see why others consider him suspicious though
Annele, ian, DC, kdz, shock - Have no reads on them really

n-

andretimpa - Very low content, but comes up more suspicious than others to me
Linkcat - I am really unsure how to read him, but I remember he did the same strategy when he flipped mafia too - quickly giving ideas for people to vote on to see whom are other people ok to lynch
Sub - I don't really know tbh, he plays strange, very unusual. I don't like the idea of not lynching rob/Link if they do something suspect, as it reinforces an idea that we rely on them to solve and we are ok to lose if they are mafia. However, his last few posts actually feel genuine. He would have been w before the few posts about broken rules
rob - Gives me a weird vibe all around, a big part of that is the Oty play, which makes more sense as Fate Egg, but I still don't like


w


ww

[TheonlyrealBeef]

Alright, so a list of reads soon. But first, I want to focus on something more important:
The fact that serprex and moehrpi might both be deja vu town. I'm reading posts like "I believe" or "I think" and other such weak sentiments. If you are going to call someone hard town or blindside them you need to be convinced.

So I will be putting on my tinfoil hat and try some angles of attack. For example:

What's the policy on posting sha512sum outputs for texts I might reveal later on?

68d20623a7d31b31bb0d65d4078979ef676816ccc2bb5595d5a0ad8429ee9eeb58ecabdb42b57bf92e32440212994f5702b597713a8269ea2d720f4c790b3ece

I'll follow Ginyu's example from last Mafia and disallow them. I'll let you off if you reveal the meaning of it now, though.

Should have totally been the expected outcome and:

I was pretty tempted to ragequit over no breadcrumbing, cryptography is a right, & let moe reveal it to prove he's town after I get modkilled

Is missing the rage feels to me.

So now, taking the statement "serprex is deja vu alongside moehrpi" as not truth, let us focus on alternative hypotheses that I could think of:

• serprex is not deja vu, moehrpi is town. Regardless of serprex' alignment, either moehrpi or a real deja vu should deny his claim in that case. serprex will end up dead.
• serprex is not deja vu, moehrpi is mafia. The only way this could benefit serprex, is if he is also mafia. They could not have known there would not be an actual deja vu town pair and a deja vu should counter-claim if there is. Even if there is no deja vu in this game and neither of them are nightkilled for some time, it only takes a single tinfoil hat role inspector to bust two mafia in one go. The risk is too high.
• serprex is deja vu, moehrpi is town non-deja vu. This is a reaaally weird angle since I have no idea how this is supposed to help serprex, since he should not know moehrpi's alignment. I would expect a counterclaim from moehrpi here. It also means there is another town, the real paired up deja vu, that has communicated and agreed on this with serprex.
• serprex is deja vu, moehrpi is mafia. Weirdest angle you can go for. I do not see any benefit from this for town = serprex.

With this, we indeed reach Calindu's conclusion of:

Oh whoops I should've made it something random since moe would be able to prove it by knowing the random phrase

Text is "DejaVu:moe,serp"

So, uh, hi

Well, this is as close as mechanically confirmed for me, since there's no way mafia risks 2 of their players to hard claim DejaVu. Someone do check them with Psion or even Endow for that matter, but it is not urgent in my opinion.

I mean, I'd argue there is a way, but it's not a significant probability.