Elements Mafia 73 - by PlayerOa

[kaempfer13]

@kaempfer13
I'd like to read a post on thoughts about andretimpa/Linkcat alignment as well as Annele/shockcannon. Trying to be chummy with me was a major red flag, but if you can post my thoughts before I type them out, I might be more inclined to put you as town.

Torb for the love of god why did you have to roll Graboid

I get to dig up dirt all day long, it's really not so bad here.

timpa self pressing onto Linkcat, but then taking the time to pick Annele over Linkcat when he roughly caught up with the actual votecount probably means that he isnt aligned with either of them and he probably could have just lynched Linkcat and be done with it as scum, so I maintain my townlean.
I still have my doubts wrt to Linkcat; I have decentish townreads of everyone on his train (except Annele not sure about her, but she wasnt around for EoD frenzy and i dont really scumread her either), so I actually still think its possible that he's scum and his team couldnt risk saving him without potentially outing themselves as the votes were somewhat volatile and if Linkcat had been lynched as scum everyone voting for counterwagons at EoD would be watched more closely.

I'll have another look at Annele/shockcannon, but so far I'm feeling pretty neutral towards Annele and townlean shockcannon for different reasons now.

[kaempfer13]

Also is there a reason you paired Annele shockcannon?
I wasnt really trying to be chummy (that means friendly, right?), with you, just rob did sth so weird I suddenly saw some of the same things you did earlier as possibility.

[TheonlyrealBeef]

After all the hours Sub probably put into writing this thing, this post needs some more love after getting buried in EoD frenzy.

Spoiler for full quote:

I am SORRY if the timing is poor, but I have been working on this, so I am posting it now.

I like that observation Link. Care to start a wagon as what develops? I do.

Stop trying to buddy me.

I can buddy whoever I want, buddy (hint- I'm not buddying anyone).

Then some time later:

Rob, buddy, just claim Fate Egg so I don't have to lynch you today. I would really love to play with you some more.

This one is barely relevant, but the contradiction is hilarious to me. This whole buddying thing is either a joke, a contradiction, or it suggests that Link can buddy rob but rob can't buddy Link. Moving on.

just claim Fate Egg so I don't have to lynch you today.

But apparently Link controls who gets lynched. Be it Town or Mafia, but it is  O R C H E S T R A T E  time, baby.~

(It would be logical if Link meant voting and not lynching, but assuming control over the lynch is something I can see him doing. Even if this is what happened, this is NAI (not indicative of alignment) for Link.)

edit:

And finally, some votes on me. I applaud your enthusiasm, but it's not going through.

LOL. This is what I'm talking about.

Not voting is good while you agree with the tally. Gives a wide net for who could be graboid. Even if GN is off the table, there's still nice roles out there like Psion & FFQ. Let mafia have to risk missing on graboid if they want to go after the no-vote crowd

I [...] need to challenge my own thinking that maybe voting early in the day can stimulate discussion but it sums up my own perception.

As I said before, good idea but voting is more valuable. Usually there's 1 or 2 people who like to hold on to votes, but if more people do it that's an easy way to mislynch.

I didn't vote before because of the graboid suggestion but I'd like to see what sub has to say before he's killed. There seems to be a lot to this story that I've somehow missed? I'm curious to see how much it will change.

Asking everyone. What's the final concensus on holding back votes to hide the Graboid? In case you haven't noticed yet, I haven't voted yet either. I am intentionally pointing this out to make people think I am not a Graboid, but if I am, that would explain my lack of votes.~

In case anyone is holding back a vote because of this, is that okay or nay?

I'll eat my shoe if sub isnt town

This comment is based solely on reading the thread. He did not gain any information from his role.

And you know it, because... ?

What I mean is, everyone assumed kae was not the Golden Nymph after the GN dropped dead, and no other roles check primaries, so it felt obvious to me that it was only a read. But you seem to have knowledge of his role. Possibilities, from most likely to least likely:

• I don't wanna say it out loud. Let's just say "This is not the time to be softing...".
• MW only made an assumption but treated it like a fact (kae could have been Egg Nymph for all we know).
• MW and kae are working together outside the topic.

edit:

My role has nothing to do with me believing serp or really my kaempfer read.

I did not see this. >_> I do not delete this part from my post, in case MW slipped and someone else instructed him to make an excuse. (Still the least likely explanation from the three.)

TOWN READS (in order of most town read to least town read)
shockcannon- My role gives me insight that he is town

Hmmm......

(No, Sub, this is not the time for softing either. Get it together.)

In case MW is Town, I make no comment here. Even though I am very tempted.

Sub is never low key as scum.

I am never low key as Town either. Ask Jonny boi (JCJ).~

TOWN READS
submachine- is doing submachine stuff. i expect him to be slightly more low key as scum.
Rob- Im on the rob wouldnt be that stupid as scum bandwagon

Sub is never low key as scum.

I do think your correct on sub, and i would like to remove him at this time from my town reads

This is literally how this conversation was, without any skips.

It didn't take much convincing, yet Link has been also saying rob would do the same thing if he was scum, but rob stayed in MW's townreads. Maybe it's because this time Link directly spoke to MW, and not to everyone. It cannot be that MW just trusts Linkcat enough to take his word, because Link was not on his read list. But let's break down the options.

• MW is Town:
  
  • MW felt intimidated that Link spoke to him directly, so quickly changed his opinion. Sheeping would be a town trait.
  • MW may not trust Link, but believes his judgment about other players. Link spoke to him directly, so he caught this message, but he missed Link's similar anti-thesis about rob, where Link says rob would be capable to do the same thing as Mafia.
  • Linkcat reminded MW something else with his comment, which MW didn't elaborate. Whether MW disagrees with Link's view on rob or just ignores it, is unknown.
• MW is Mafia, Link is Town: MW changed his opinion quickly, because the readlist was fake. If Mafia can justify townreading less Town players, they would take the chance. It makes lynching them later easier. But just as suddenly voting on someone who a person has townread the whole game, this sudden switch is also suspicious.
• MW is Mafia, Link is Mafia: Almost the same as above, except MW felt like Link was suggesting him to change his play. It would make sense too for Link to command other mafia if he was one.

I do not know what MW pays attention to, who he trusts, if he would sheep, or if he can be intimidated so easily, so I am keeping all possibilities open. Though I do hope he clarifies.

edit:

n
Rob (hes fate egg. it took long enough. Could be wrong but i dont think that doesnt mean hes not mafia)

His next readlist reveals he actually put rob back too. Though it feels like only because he revealed Fate Egg, and only after he revealed Fate Egg.

Text is "DejaVu:moe,serp"

Well, this is as close as mechanically confirmed for me, since there's no way mafia risks 2 of their players to hard claim DejaVu. Someone do check them with Psion or even Endow for that matter, but it is not urgent in my opinion.

I haven't responded to the Deja Vu revelation yet, but I trust their word for it. No counterclaims, that should be enough. Using Psion to check them is a waste of a night.

And endow... is not really worth it. We already know Mafia can also become Deja Vu, so the only thing a Crusader can gain is chat.

@Calindu: You have been previously upset about the idea to let the fate of Town rest in the hands of only 2 people. What is your opinion about Linkcat taking control of the game?

v
rob - I really think he's just town fate egg and didn't want to "waste" his ability. Arguably a bad decision, but I  don't think he's mafia.

Not arguably, ian did the same thing as rob 2 mafias ago, yet he calls it a bad decision here. It looks like subtle shade throwing.

n
Linkcat - Probably hardest person to read for me, so better players will have to keep an eye up for slip-ups.

A HUGE caveat here is that Link is a notoriously difficult read for me, and we have a fairly colorful history of interactions in games we both participate.

I'm not sure how to read linkcat just yet but I agree with the reasoning behind it.

Linkcat - I am really unsure how to read him,

I have yet to read anyone who has a grasp on Link. Until then, I draw the conclusion that Linkcat is unreadable. This is the point where Town has to rely on power roles.

And now we have come to this.

Spoiler for Do not read this if your name is kaempfer:

http://elementscommunity.org/forum/forum-games/elements-mafia-73-by-playeroa/msg1297036/#msg1297036

Shockcannon, after only one night, is certain kaempfer is Town. We had foreshadowing during Night 0.

There's a high probability kaempfer13 is involved with my plans for tonight.

Soon after shock's latter post, we have this:

i agree with shocks last message

This is to be continued. I need to elaborate why this ended up as confusing.

I decided not to continue this train of thought. Kae, MW, and shock further discussed this, and while they left it ambiguous, I find it better to keep it ambiguous.

You mentioned RQs, I'm not seeing any RQs. You did mention you would only do them when discussion dies down, so that's okay. In total, I'm just seeing a lot of I will statements from him, but he's not backing them up.

More later, too many people are posting.

I'm still waiting for the strategies.

Because of the whole I don't check my role ordeal, I doubt I was a primary healing target, so I want to dump some guidance in case I bite the dust.

You're not dead yet, follow your own advice?

I am confused about several things, but I am too afraid to ask, and honestly, I don't even know where to start.

Your argument is invalid. I want all the questions. Questions left unanswered can sometimes tell more than the answers themselves would.

I see more people addressed me, but do excuse me if I only respond to them tomorrow.

Please do, that may very well lift most suspicion. You're only standing here on the list because you're consistently failing to follow up.

Fair points, mostly an issue with available time. Right now, my highest priority is to catch up with my full analysis, but I am quite far behind, so I might drop it at one point.

The RQS is mostly planned to spark conversation, with added hope it gives useful insight. Spoiler: My question will be, how would you behave if you were Mafia, and can you show an example of it? Anyone who wants can answer it right away.

And I did not continue the strategy list, because nobody responded to it, and eventually I forgot about it. Looking back, I was not too far from finishing it.

• Crusader should be used for "Psion" purposes, rather than waiting for someone to reveal GN. (Especially now.) Angels are your best bet, but Angels would never claim, so pick someone who would never claim.
• Vultures should grab some of that fallen GN booty, but it would be a surprising development if a less notable player secretly grabbed an Otyugh. It could throw a wrench in Mafia's plan during endgame, but strictly during endgame.
• Any other shenanigans I can think of should come naturally. (Keep talking if you die as Phoenix, if you are Frozen ask for Adrenaline, do not brazenly ask for Momentum because that can give away your role, etc.)

Some roles come off as utterly useless to me. Ghost of the Past and Adrenaline for example. I still need to think of a more elaborate strategy than single-targeting. Wider strategies is where success is at. It doesn't help that it's not guaranteed for a role to be Town's, or in the game.

I have a wild theory about Linkcat's role that would explain his behavior if he was Town. I do not want to openly discuss it, but I am looking for a sign from Link. @Link: Are you what I think you are? Wink wink.

Still only Page 26... It felt like 39 pages. I am posting a preview again to take a break.

@Calindu: You have been previously upset about the idea to let the fate of Town rest in the hands of only 2 people. What is your opinion about Linkcat taking control of the game?

I am interested in this response as well.

And I did not continue the strategy list, because nobody responded to it, and eventually I forgot about it. Looking back, I was not too far from finishing it.

• Crusader should be used for "Psion" purposes, rather than waiting for someone to reveal GN. (Especially now.) Angels are your best bet, but Angels would never claim, so pick someone who would never claim.
• Vultures should grab some of that fallen GN booty, but it would be a surprising development if a less notable player secretly grabbed an Otyugh. It could throw a wrench in Mafia's plan during endgame, but strictly during endgame.
• Any other shenanigans I can think of should come naturally. (Keep talking if you die as Phoenix, if you are Frozen ask for Adrenaline, do not brazenly ask for Momentum because that can give away your role, etc.)

Some roles come off as utterly useless to me. Ghost of the Past and Adrenaline for example. I still need to think of a more elaborate strategy than single-targeting. Wider strategies is where success is at. It doesn't help that it's not guaranteed for a role to be Town's, or in the game.

Can agree on Crusader.
Vulture part feels self-evident, but does not hurt to point out regardless.
Green Nymph:

@Sub
Regarding adrenaline, if someone has nothing better in mind, they can keep targeting a potential town Graboid/Shrieker until they Evolve/Unburrow.

Noted.

Note Note: there is no guarantee town has adrenaline capability... at this point...... But that is a GREAT use idea for it, TorB

The RQS is mostly planned to spark conversation, with added hope it gives useful insight. Spoiler: My question will be, how would you behave if you were Mafia, and can you show an example of it? Anyone who wants can answer it right away.

Answering questions is always fun:
I have no examples of being mafia since I am not and never have been mafia. Keep throwing dirt until it sticks on a town seems like the most evident way for me to remain myself as mafia. The clinch is how to avoid dirt sticking on other mafia.

[TheonlyrealBeef]

Also is there a reason you paired Annele shockcannon?
I wasnt really trying to be chummy (that means friendly, right?), with you, just rob did sth so weird I suddenly saw some of the same things you did earlier as possibility.

Chummy, buddy, friendly, name it however you want.

I had a hunch on shockcannon and Annele sharing the same alignment.

For the other pairing, I will also clarify for everyone:
andretimpa turned the lynch vote into a draw and was eager to vote with Linkcat on Annele instead. He mentioned he did not suspect Linkcat to be mafia.
I suspect Link and rob share the same alignment, potentially andre as well.

Problem is, too many Linkcat voters seemed to vote for a reason different from suspecting him to be scum.

I can trust my initial gut instinct, trust shock and put rob and Link both as mafia.
Or I can trust Linkcat and go with Annele and/or shock. Given this post:

2/5 votes on me are confirmed town, (thanks guys) so that means there's 1-2 mafia in Annele, kaempfer, and shock.

I wanted your reasoning on why the 1-2 were Annele and/or shockcannon.

[kaempfer13]

Hm, andre intending to turn the vote on linkcat into a draw (=no lynch) is actually a good obversation.

[TheonlyrealBeef]

Or to put on my tinfoil hat: Linkcat and rob77dp both being mafia is why Linkcat would first want to connect rob's alignment to andretimpa and then lynch andretimpa flipping town.
andretimpa, however, has no idea wtf is going on. In that situation.

[kaempfer13]

Quite frankly I dont share the impression that Annele and shockcannon should be paired. annele voted Link because I called her out on not voting her biggest scumread and then couldnt be around for deadline. I dont think her vote itself is alignment indicative. shockcannon mostly just wanted to vote with the people that he thinks are most likely town.

[TheonlyrealBeef]

Quite frankly I dont share the impression that Annele and shockcannon should be paired. annele voted Link because I called her out on not voting her biggest scumread and then couldnt be around for deadline. I dont think her vote itself is alignment indicative. shockcannon mostly just wanted to vote with the people that he thinks are most likely town.

It's how hard shock was trying not to let Annele's lynch count get the lead that is the important part here.

[Calindu]

Finally managed to catch up with everything that happened. My apologies for not being able to contribute at end of day, I was trying to follow from my phone, but couldn't post with 3 people looking at my shared screen and working on it.

I saw the post about switching to Annele, but I didn't believe it was a good idea so I just didn't switch. I also didn't feel like lynching rob or Link were good ideas at that point so I just stayed on Andre.

@Calindu: You have been previously upset about the idea to let the fate of Town rest in the hands of only 2 people. What is your opinion about Linkcat taking control of the game?

I wasn't upset about letting someone leading town or anything like that, I was upset at the idea that you suggested two people are allowed to do something completely out of line and reeking of scum and go unpunished. It is fairly normal for more vocal people to take control of the game, we just have to recognise when it's the work of a mafia member.

I'm not sure what I've stated and what I haven't, but I have Annele at n+ right now.

Yet you pushed for Annele to be lynched. I know it was partly to save yourself, but there were other viable options, probably lower than n+ to choose, right?

Here's my updated read list though, won't try to go through everything I missed and make a quote wall.

vv

serp, moe

v

Sub - I can actually confidently say that I consider Sub town now, his actions all seem to make sense, his ideas are clear and reason well into my head
TorB - Nothing changed here for me, he still takes the same methodical approach to things
MW - Nothing changed here either

n+

kae - My gut feeling was telling me that kae would be around n- last night, however, when reading his posts, it actually seems like he's just really confused and can't really make sense of what's happening
andre - He was suspicious to me before EoD, but I actually think his actions make more sense as town now. He chose to go for Annele instead of simply hammering Linkcat, with a good excuse too, at the end. I don't think Link/andre is w/w so it makes more sense for andre to be v

n

Annele - I don't personally town lean her, but I'm also very confused why is she considered scum by so many
kdz - Not much to analyse, his read list is mostly town leans or neutrals
DC - seems fairly normal to me tbh

n-

shock - Not sure about shock, I don't like his style of play, so I'm always inclined to believe, at least a little bit, that he's mafia.
ian - Don't like the random vote switches and blindly trusting rob at EoD
Ge0 - Seems fairly normal for someone that didn't play mafia for a long time, the only thing I don't like is that I'm not sure if he's just trying to buddy someone with the hard read on Annele or he actually believes that

w

rob - His actions just didn't make sense to me when reading, also mentioned by serp and kae.
Link - Gut feeling mostly, I feel he plays very similar to the way he played in Mafia 71, with constantly switching around, whereas he played a much more controlled game in Mafia 72, might be because that game was easy to solve?

ww


The rob/Link interaction is also very strange, I think there's little to no chance they are w/w, but I also think they are fully capable of pulling that off. At the same time, rob really tried to save Link at EoD, I don't think that actually happens if rob is w and Link is v, so I think the most likely option is Link w and rob v.

Now, I'm actually very confused about the game, this read list, even though I just made it, actually makes 0 sense to me now that I look at it. I really need to see a mafia flip to wrap my head around things.

[DoubleCapitals]

Sub asking for RQS this late into Day 1/Night 1 feels for fluff than ever but idk. Typical Sub but filling the chat with more unnecessary stuff makes me think Δ- of him.

Now Imma follow in shock's shoes and start adopting this shade (and only this shade) of red. It doesn't mean anything now, but I may use it when I want to mean something. Who knows.

[iancudorinmarian]

@calin,

1) My vote switches weren't random.
2) rob is currently my strongest town read after the deja vu pair

[DoubleCapitals]

If rob/Link are w/w I will personally join a Trials element of their choice.