@shock: If I am correct about what you have in mind, I see no reason why you would not reveal what you found.
I was only half-correct about what shock had in mind. The rest of it I could not have expected.
Reading through the "revelation", can't say I'm convinced that rob, kae, and I are mafia. But I'm not gonna tell shock to stop, because I see this will spark a lot of conversation, which only helps Town. Solving, bad reads, and mistakes all lean town for me, so I will not dismiss anything that's being said, even if I disagree.
I do believe town lying to get things done is a valid tactic, I just don't see yet why lie about Golden Nymph if you are not certain he is Town. We wasted two phases worth of time assuming kae is semi-confirmed town, and not do much solving about him because of that assumption. It is a good thing that eventually you revealed the lie, I am just unsure about the timing.
*** shock, this is the point where you need to come clean if you're bluffing, I think.
Even though it was from your main suspect, you got request during End of Night 2 (EON2) to drop it if you are bluffing, but you waited until Day 4. This would assume town!shock only recently started suspecting kaempfer, and at the time, he believed kae was town.
Town!shock might also try the double bluff about kae; first claiming him to be confirmed, then acting like it was a bluff just to see who are eager to hop on the kae wagon, to then reveal that the bluff was a bluff too. This would be scummy. Even so, because shock
promised not to bluff for the rest of the game.
Mafia!shock would just be attracting unnecessary attention to himself, which does not make sense to me, but I have yet to see how shock plays when he is mafia. Maybe mafia!shock would try to imitate his town playing style (bluffing GN, lying tactics), but only for short periods of time.
Theorising went from towniest to least towny scenario. To see more clearly, I would like shock to clear up which description suits his style the best, or pick an Answer D that is not on the list.
I was correct to assume your post would be about process of elimination, it just went ways I did not expect it to go.
The list of possible Anubises is not very long.
If I count that Annele cannot be Anubis and if I believe rob's reports, then only the following people can be it:
1. iancudorinmarian
12. andretimpa
14. shockcannon (Fate Egg)
15. killsdazombies
18. Ge0metry v1.2
@MasterWalks: If you have seen one of these people target someone, please help to narrow the list.
AFAIK, shock has not said anything about his N1 action, so it is possible that he got Anubis from Fate Egg.
I now looked back at my earlier post, and realized that the reason why I did not put rob on the list of possible Anubises is because I made the initial assumption of believing his reports. And the reason why I put you on it but not rob, is because rob reported all his night actions (Otyugh, Seraph, and forgot what else), but you only reported Nights 0 and 2 (GN and Psion).
In a world where rob used Anubis on serprex during N1 and claimed Psion, rob would most likely be mafia. But it is a world I am not quite ready to accept yet, so that is also why I went with the assumption that rob was truthful about his reports. I concede that my ATE influenced my mechanical PoE, but even though it is possible, I still think rob is the least likely to be the Anubis.
For town!shock who checked geo's role, the only remaining suspects are rob and andretimpa. I understand shock suspected rob since Day 1, and I also understand his stance on andretimpa, so I will not question his deduction. But for others, if shock is town and truthful, andretimpa also opens up as an option. Depending on today's result, this might be worth looking into later.
In case of mafia!shock, the PoE does not narrow, so it still contains timpa, Geo, rob, and shock. Though mafia!shock's strong stance on rob would limit the possible targets to timpa, Geo, and himself. It is possible that mafia!shock would tell the truth about Geo's role, so the PoE does not narrow on that front.
In either scenario, it remains a question what timpa's role is. His role might be the missing key to this puzzle.
edit: I just remembered there can also be a third Fate Egg, but I hate to even think about that scenario.
Goodluck countering that rob. I'm curious to see what you try though.
Rob don't address me. I caught you.
LoL. This is as much a gem as serprex's comment about Matthew 4:7.
As for Submachine, hard to be suspicious in voting patterns if you never vote. Also "I will only vote to save Linkcat." Yet, somehow you conveniently disappeared in the last few minutes of day 1 and didn't even vote day 2 to save Linkcat. Suspicious much??? I think so.
If that is the only reason to suspect me, then feel free to suspect me. Even I hated myself after that.
- I cannot be the Anubis unless I'm actually fate egg because MasterWalks targeted kaempf N0 and saw me visit kaempf. Now if I'm Anubis that gave kaempf immortality, MW targeting of kaempf would've failed. Not to mention, Calindu gave kaempf adrena on N2.
Actually, good point. If shock is not Fate Egg, he cannot be the Anubis. He knew about Annele's role earlier, so unless they are aligned, shock had to have Psion at one point. It's a bit less convincing that shock's other targets were already public knowledge by the time he claimed, so I hope shock left proper breadcrumbs on the way here to 100% clear his role. Either way, I can work with this info.
If shock would be the Anubis, he would be required to be a Fate Egg. We know he targeted kaempfer N0, we know nothing about N1, we know he used Psion on Annele on N2 (assuming they are not aligned), and we know he targeted Geo on N3. This is vague enough to allow both possibilities. Night 1 is when moe died, so it would be a safe bluff to claim targeting moe, because the general concensus was that checking them is low priority.
But if shock is Psion, he cannot be the Anubis (DUH). I state it again that, if they exist, I would like to see breadcrumbs about shock's N1 and other vaguely known actions. That would clear him from the PoE.
either rob or I have to be mafia. So if you're still convinced rob is town, then lynch me and then come back to this post and read again for the answers to this game.
That's a difficult fight to pick. If you are so sure that kaempfer and I are also mafia, you would be picking one of us instead of rob. Shock's train of thought feels like he bases our alignments on his read on rob. So I have to ask,
@shock: In case rob is actually town, do you still hold strongly to your other two mafia picks? If so, then why are you not pushing us instead of rob? We have so much more dirt than rob, you could easily get away with it. (
Quick note: I would hate to protect rob if he was actually mafia here, but in case he is town, I would rather sacrifice myself to prove shock wrong, because I deem myself less useful for town's cause than rob.)
If shock is mafia, this comes off as endgame panic. Town is getting a lot of confirmed people and hard townreads, and the PoE is closing in. It would make sense to undo the confirmation of kaempfer and heavily discredit rob, in a way that only shock can do.
If nothing else, I learned that shock and kae are not w/w.
Submachine - doesn't vote, doesn't share role, doesn't do anything but make distracting noise. Town that doesn't get involved in lynches other than to save one player that he conveniently knows 100% is town, is not a town move. Also failed to save Linkcat twice ironically. Made a post afterwards saying how guilty he felt though. That sure makes up for it.
I did vote when I stopped being vague about Graboid and started having better reads than n. About not sharing role, I do believe I had a good role at the time, so I felt the need to lay low. (I will get to that later.) And I was bamboozled by the unreadability of a few people and the night interactions between a few players, so I had more confusion to give at that point than anything. But even DC implied that only some of my thoughts were swamping, and they contained relevant solving too. (Only implied, he did not clearly say this, but I did mix my confusions with solving.)
I already reacted to the last two sentences.
Proposed Mafia:
ian
Calindu
Ge0
50/50:
submachine
DoubleCapitals
I'm willing to lean on DC being mafia. We'll know the next day anyways, which should clear submachine.
This was posted on Day 3. It shifted quite a lot during two phases (unless this was all just a bluff and part of the masterplan). Assuming it was truthful, shock gave me the benefit of the doubt of not being the last mafia member. In that case though, I have a feeling I'm only here by PoE. Is that not correct?
This was a lot to write and I'm a bit tired so I'll follow up some time in the near future with why I'm quite certain kaempfer and Submachine are the last 2 mafia. For now, I want to hear thoughts on what I've written so far
I do not have much to react to about myself yet, but you said you will go into details about my case, so I am waiting for it with utmost curiosity.~
For MW's demand, I will start a different post.
Sub - what were you doing visiting shock last night? Make it good because I'm starting to suspect you were guarding or angeling shock.
You are in for a treat.
I was waiting for the time I had to reveal, so I prepared a whole set of breadcrumbs to go through. If that won't convince you, then nothing will.
Poll
