Elements Mafia 73 - by PlayerOa

[killsdazombies]

Look, either way, a mafia dies and I'm happy with that. I would prefer to give the mafia a target other then serp tonight, but well, I can't make you all know. Heres a "final" read list

WW
Ian

W
Geo
DC (Inconsequential)

N-
Shock
Cali

N
Sub
MW
Annele

N+
Rob

V
Kae

VV
Serp

Once I'm gone and you kill ian, I'd STRONGLY advise taking out ge0. They've played super strange this game, and every bone in my body is screaming sus

After that I'd take a look at shock/cali. Hell, you have a devour, and once you flip ian you'll know a mafia has been busing them all game. Thats not a "they cant be mafia" theory, but rather one that i would gamble on and have annele eat cali/shock if they get mind flayered by DC tonight.

Hopefully Ian/Geo/DC all flip mafia, we can start knocking down dominos. If they all flip and theres one left Order of sus is Cali-Shock-Rob.

I'm not saying kill rob, but I believe they have the capacity to get into the position they are right now as mafia, so at least keep an eye out

[killsdazombies]

To elaborate

Ian - I know hes mafia

Geo - was my other target, but I swapped last second to ian, had a gut feeling

DC - Assuming the above about geo is correct, theyve parked with Ian or not at all

Shock - what the fuck is even happening here

Cali - as I said before, its possible the mafia swapped their invincible town from torb to kae to earn some town credit. Its a little tinfoil, but its not that hard to see happening

Sub - Has been sub all game

MW - Despite throwing a wrench in my plan, I highly doubt a mafia would call out their own getting targeted. Actually, Idk why theyre only at N, I'd bump them up pretty high actually... I don't think you should listen to everything they say, but its not like dragonfly can see what role is being used. I thought they could at first, which lead me to believe mw thought ian targeted me with precog.

Annele - Once ian flips their entire bus falls apart.

Rob - has been contributing active all the time. In a real solid position. Could still be mafia who made it very far, so keep an eye

Kae - effectively confirmed

Serp - Hard conf

[kaempfer13]

Hm, this really isnt so clear-cut after all.I'm gonna take a walk to think about things.

[andretimpa]

@kdz when sempai doesn't notices you

[killsdazombies]

Andre, SORRY! i knew i was missing something. I've sorted lumped you in with annele tbh, someone who caught a lot of flak early and is now free from those chains imo.

You had ian vote on you with intent to kill here

andretimpa (6) - Calindu, moehrpi, Submachine, Linkcat, rob77dp, iancudorinmarian
Linkcat (5) - Annele, kaempfer13, MasterWalks, serprex, shockcannon
Annele (1) - Ge0metry

on day 1, even though they backed off and removed their vote once moe voted on linkcat.

That enough to put you at at least N in my book. You had a lot of dirt on you from before, but I dont think mafia would vote a nail in a coffin on their own.

Add andre to either N or N+, whichever you prefer, they hover around there.

[rob77dp]

If kdz is the scum here... I think this is some quality spew territory - and if town then it is quality thoughts being input from town-perspective. Yellow is my comments added where relevant.

Look, either way, a mafia dies and I'm happy with that Weird stance, because it seems highly likely that also a town dies with a solid position/role (Vulture'd GN or AdrenaSeraph) ... a town you should really be concerned with having the outcome be THE SCUM IS LYNCHED. A bit wishy-washy on your statement here for my taste kdz (taste is a subjective thing though, so YMMV). I would prefer to give the mafia a target other then serp tonight, but well, I can't make you all know. Heres a "final" read list

WW
Ian

W
Geo
DC (Inconsequential) Not inconsequential if he is scum... he can FLAY tonight which is a major pain in any town plans because it trumps in role priority!

N-
Shock so, you are close to believing scum!shock saved a town!kae on Day 2 for .... what reason?? If kae is town that Day 2 "mislynch" was piece of cake for a scum!shock, I see no reason or win-con value for scum!shock to make that play on town!kae there...
Cali

N
Sub
MW
Annele this placement is odd to me, given how you talk about her below in the 'town plan by kdz'

N+
Rob you have your opinion, but there is no way I can manuever all over the place like I have this game as scum. I'm too calculating when I have the facts... just read my scum games, it is painfully obvious (but now also WIFOM #sorrynotsorry)

V
Kae See above for my comment on shock, too. I think kae=town is most likely scenario from shock's peeked-kae-as-town claims.

VV
Serp

Where's timpa at yo dawg?
Once I'm gone and you kill ian, I'd STRONGLY advise taking out ge0. They've played super strange this game, and every bone in my body is screaming sus

After that I'd take a look at shock/cali. Hell, you have a devour, and once you flip ian you'll know a mafia has been busing them all game. Thats not a "they cant be mafia" theory, but rather one that i would gamble on and have annele eat cali/shock if they get mind flayered by DC tonight.

Hopefully Ian/Geo/DC all flip mafia, we can start knocking down dominos. If they all flip and theres one left Order of sus is Cali-Shock-Rob.

I'm not saying kill rob, but I believe they have the capacity to get into the position they are right now as mafia, so at least keep an eye out I love and hate, and then hate and love, how often I seem to get this "well he looks very town but yeah he could do that as mafia too" take. I get weary just imagining next time I ever roll scum and have to live up to my town WIM where I really really prefer being town. WIFOM rant, over for now.

Spoiler for kdz follow-up additional material:

To elaborate

Ian - I know hes mafia

Geo - was my other target, but I swapped last second to ian, had a gut feeling

DC - Assuming the above about geo is correct, theyve parked with Ian or not at all

Shock - what the fuck is even happening here

Cali - as I said before, its possible the mafia swapped their invincible town from torb to kae to earn some town credit. Its a little tinfoil, but its not that hard to see happening

Sub - Has been sub all game

MW - Despite throwing a wrench in my plan, I highly doubt a mafia would call out their own getting targeted. Actually, Idk why theyre only at N, I'd bump them up pretty high actually... I don't think you should listen to everything they say, but its not like dragonfly can see what role is being used. I thought they could at first, which lead me to believe mw thought ian targeted me with precog.

Annele - Once ian flips their entire bus falls apart.

Rob - has been contributing active all the time. In a real solid position. Could still be mafia who made it very far, so keep an eye

Kae - effectively confirmed

Serp - Hard conf

[serprex]

I just love watching them squirm

town!kdz needed to push for geo, I was setting up a tie to avoid leading the votes. Then tomorrow they claim GN against ian & ask GA to cover them for their second check

As is we can't get a second check out of town!kdz. So here's hoping we confirm ian into an adrenalseraph

[rob77dp]

killsdazombies (6) - serprex, iancudorinmarian, DoubleCapitals, Annele, Calindu, kaempfer13
Calindu (1) - Ge0metry v1.2
iancudorinmarian (3) - Killsdazombies, MasterWalks, rob77dp

(re-posting votecount, it was a bit back for finding quickly) (no change)


EOD 1, if iancu is wolf then Annele is cleared for me.

EOD 2, if kdz is the wolf here then Cal gets more shade from kdz voting approach.

kdz - are you, like, really really good at this game? Or, like, really really good at lying and deceiving and conniving and misleading? Because you're going fast enough on this whole thunderdome to make me think my wanting to believe you is either you're right/town/honest in it or you're just that good to do it as scum. I know when things start moving quickly in my own scum game, I almost freeze or get too mechanical... I get a certain flow vibe from your posting right now.

ian - I would not characterize it as my thinking your side in this right is not also somewhat convincing, just seems more legit to me from kdz's angle.

[andretimpa]

This is actually the most recent one rob

killsdazombies (7) - serprex, iancudorinmarian, DoubleCapitals, Annele, Calindu, kaempfer13, andretimpa
Calindu (1) - Ge0metry v1.2
iancudorinmarian (3) - Killsdazombies, MasterWalks, rob77dp

[killsdazombies]

Either way a mafia dies and i'm happy with that - As it goes right now, we are on track to not lynch any. Ian would have flown far under the radar all game, but now hes in the light and an undercover mafia is outted. Id rather it end with me still alive until I get NK'd but, I'll take what I can get. A mafia dies, and hopefully that new information will help the rest of the town examine past posts and try and draw connections.

On dc - inconsequential as in, there is no reason to ever vote on them. If he flays fine, we aren't winning this due to roles. Unless he just shot in the darks you rob, and hopes you have a valid role no one else has claimed a role that has an actual use. GA is still undercover (as they should be) so were fine. They'll die tonight and i'm hoping they flip

On shock - Dude, I dont even know what the heck is happening here anymore. My tinfoil says either cali or shock is mafia, and they both together made a super town. They are going to be paired together in my book until one of them flips mafia. Shock is shitposting instead of contributing though so take that as you will.

On annele - If I were mafia, and I had nothing better todo i'd just bus my mafia friend who was sus. If they flip its free super town cred, and if you flip its super town cred for them. I'm placing annele at N because I WANT to believe they are town, but I dont put it past ian to vote their own mafia mate every night. Hence why Andre is also at N/N+ (tbf andres was with intent)

on rob - Thats fair, i don't remember how you play, but as I said way at the beginning, because you are better then me, I have an innate fear of you. I'm trying to see through that cloud, but I don't want people to think I conf'd you or something stupid

Kae - Im use V for "Almost certainly town" and VV for "Conf town" You could put kae under VV if you wanted, I just wanted the separation between Kae and Serp to be distinct

On andre - :c I'm sorry bby

rob, I've maintained a pretty consistent view of you, and I've been consistent in that voice. You are a very strong player, and I am afraid that you could pull off some grand heist like this. You are still at N+ in my book, because I truly believe you are town, but I don't want to blindly believe it. I just want to advise caution. You, Link, and Torb all worry me deeply. I'm trying to hit a middle ground where I express that fear, while also maintaining my belief that you are probably town.

[rob77dp]

Folks, we need to be really careful here about just voting off kdz claiming a cop role. He might be lying... ian might be lying. But just being cavalier about lynching kdz when he might be a 2nd-wind for town-cop with the plan to make ian night-invincible (outside of a scum mind flayer which doesn't seem to exist this game) feels VERY ambitious at this juncture. No? Maybe I'm not properly fully grasping the idea you're going with here serp...??

[Calindu]

I'm very confused who to lynch at this point, both made some good points and both are useful due to their roles.

Also, I think if DC flips mafia we should take a look again at kae/shock, there is no reason for him to not disrupt the unkillable town, unless the person that's going to be made unkillable is actually mafia.
DC flipping mafia also kind of confirms Annele as town(why flay her otherwise?) and incriminates ian.

I'm thinking about lynching Ge0 today and hoping DC flips mafia so we have a lot of information to work with, but it can backfire really hard if both of them flip town.