Elements Mafia 72 - by Ginyu

[shockcannon]

@Friendly Neighbor
I’ll be waiting.

[Submachine]

I think it's pointless to calculate the odds of shock being Officer. Even if he only has 5% chance to be Officer, there is a chance he is the Officer. It is in our best interest to just wait, because either

• Shock is Nightkilled and is confirmed to be Officer.
• The real Officer is Nightkilled, in which case it will be obvious to lynch Shock.
• Neither Shock nor the real Officer die, but then we let the Officer do his thing until the end of the game.

[Espithel]

I think it's pointless to calculate the odds of shock being Officer. Even if he only has 5% chance to be Officer, there is a chance he is the Officer. It is in our best interest to just wait, because either

• Shock is Nightkilled and is confirmed to be Officer.
• The real Officer is Nightkilled, in which case it will be obvious to lynch Shock.
• Neither Shock nor the real Officer die, but then we let the Officer do his thing until the end of the game.

According to my hastily scrawn notes, assuming he's telling the truth (I don't think he is), he has a 50% chance of being Mafia, give or take.

That makes him statistically waaaay more likely to be scum than anyone else here.

But, you're right. There's a chance he's the officer. How much risk are you willing to accept?

[TheonlyrealBeef]

Everyone should cast their vote before deadline. How do we enforce this?
Asking the entire town.

There were several reasons for this to happen, I will start with my own reason for voting late: hoping for a concrete scum read before the end of the day. I imagine many town were. Yet, when it gets down to it, expecting any concrete scum reads D1 was likely more than a little naive. As long as votes are spread out, they hold little meaning. This includes your lone vote for me: if more people voted for me and stated what kind of information you would want from me, I could comply. Spread out votes make no impact: focus them bright and early.

But here is the thing, what about people that are not very active? We want them to be more active, we pressure them with lynch votes to speak up. But when they actually speak up, I personally switched targets. So the question is: at what point does one switch to what kind of target? If inactives know you will switch after a set time, they could just choose to wait it out.

@Friendly Neighbor
I’ll be waiting.

Is it not possible for Friendly Neighbor, to actually be a not so friendly mafia? Just something to keep in mind.

[Submachine]

But, you're right. There's a chance he's the officer. How much risk are you willing to accept?

I would let him "fakely" identify at least 2 people and test his noise-making skills by a Raid. If he is Town, he would still do it, but not fakely.

I actually hope that shock is lying, because if he had just acted his normal self, he would have been fine for at least Day 3. That now we are in this situation is his fault.

[worldwideweb3]

Okay.

Let's do this in chunks.

Chunk 1: Why do we always lynch? Why didn't we lynch?
This one's mainly for Torb/Mobian.
The reason why we always lynch is very simple:
Lynching is the primary tool the town has of gathering information.
If we don't lynch, what the mafia does is they nightkill someone who we don't pay attention to - a 0-Information NK.
This means we have pretty much as much information to begin with as the previous day, and so the cycle begins.

Eventually, we have to lynch. It's better to start early because the mafia has less control over us that way, because the town is dictating the conversation.

...Did you catch it?
Plenty of shit has happened today!
We have:
-The odds of Shockcannon being mafia/officer/telling the truth to figure out
-So much going on in terms of Dawn, Shock, and www3's voting trains
-The rampant last-minute pressure that has to be stopped and looked into
-www3 existing

A lynch will happen D2, and it'll likely be based on D1, and I feel confident we'll get a scum. No no-lynch loop is happening, because we have all this information to unpack.

I want to stress that the circumstances where no-lynching is okay are freak - This is the first time I'd consider it in ages, and even this is arguably the incorrect play. This is not something I would normally do.

Which brings us naturally to:
Chunk 2: Deadline Voting
We need to establish some form of law or system that removes all of this last-second voting from the game.

In the last mafia, one of the best ways to let the town eat themselves was to not really contribute much, and then wait for the clock to run out, and then have so many major decisions of that day happen at that point.
It removes the town's ability to rationally think through their decisions, and the "we have to lynch" mentality, while true, massively compounds this problem.

In addition, it's not fair to people who aren't around during deadline.
How would Linkcat have reacted to this?
What about Dawn?
What about Naii?
Their contribution to what happened has been silenced, because they weren't here. This strategy has been demonstrated not to work in the past mafia. Why are we still doing it?


Everyone should cast their vote before deadline. How do we enforce this?
Asking the entire town.

He saw him being primary lynch target tho and was active, just didnt post much (acc to sub)

[Submachine]

He saw him being primary lynch target tho and was active, just didnt post much (acc to sub)

I confirm that I said that and it still bugs me. I have a new possible theory.

Dawn could have been Mafia. He could have trusted another Mafia to be there during the deadline and attempt to control the situation. In that case, it was orchestration all over again.

[Submachine]

I'm not super fixated on lynching dawn. I am currently fixated on the people who use this poopy defense for dawn.

[Espithel]

In addition, it's not fair to people who aren't around during deadline.
How would Linkcat have reacted to this?
What about Dawn?
What about Naii?

He saw him being primary lynch target tho and was active, just didnt post much (acc to sub)

Alright, alright.

The point remains.
What about Annele?
What about Insig.
Oa didn't think he could make it, and it's good he did. What about him?

[worldwideweb3]

yhhh ofc im against the frantic last minute lynching and doing nothing during the day ^^

[kaempfer13]

I'm not super fixated on lynching dawn. I am currently fixated on the people who use this poopy defense for dawn.

Only relevant if dawn is actually mafia, but yh if he deliberately missed EoD he and other people that protected him are suspicious.

[kaempfer13]

Im aware that that includes me obv