Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine

[shockcannon]

What happens if iridium warden guards another iridium warden?

[Ginyu]

What happens if iridium warden guards another iridium warden?

"If two roleblocking roles with the same priority target each other, both abilities fail. If only one targets the other, the ability of the one that was targeted fails."

[shockcannon]

Okay, this is a little prep work for the next day phase.


On day 3 we will have 3 nights worth of ability information to work off of. I know people are really against role claiming but I think we need at least 3-4 of us to role claim and share everything we did truthfully on day 3. I would prefer is town steps out of their comfort zone and reveals early. If we let mafia reveal they could lie and could control the flow of the game. Preferably everyone would just reveal and then we could work out who exactly is lying. Having all the info out on the table makes it harder for mafia to come up with believable lies.

Now, as to why revealing is good. Revealing gives us information to deduce who is targeting who, which is pretty much the only way outside of GN that we can find mafia. Obviously, revealing lets mafia figure out the power roles sooner and kill them off early, but guess what, they have to kill off like 9-10 of us before they win. The earlier we all reveal the longer we have to use that information. If we can't at least kill off 1 mafia in 5 day/night cycles we really don't deserve to win anyways. The more mafia we kill, the more time it buys us. Who cares if mafia knows some roles, we have all the time in the world to find them. I get that losing GN would pretty much mean we have 0 concrete evidence, but I'm hoping GN would find at least 1 mafia by day 3. I think even if a few of us reveal on day 3, GN would still have a pretty solid shot at living to investigate at least 1 more person.

I also think we have enough info from voting during the day to narrow down mafia to groups of people. For example, I don't think it'll be too hard to find two people where 1 of them is almost definitely mafia and the other isn't. We kill one and we either get lucky or we know the other is mafia.

Anyways, on to an example of why I would like to reveal day 3. Ian claims he was blocked N1 and caught a firefly. Assuming this info is actually fact, that means mind flayer blocked ian and no one else targeted ian except firefly. If firefly were to confirm or deny this, we would gain a lot of info. Because if we find out ian is lying that implies a lot of new things. He could be town trying to keep mafia from checking him. He could be mafia trying to throw suspicion off himself. Who knows? But that knowledge that ian was lying offers us a lot of concrete evidence that we can then try to match up with his actions in voting. If we can confirm from firefly queen that ian is telling the truth, we know that a mind flayer is consecutively blocking ian. That tells us a lot as well. If we think the mind flayer is mafia and the psion finds mind flayer, well guess what, we just found ourselves a mafia.

Basically, I really truly believe some role revealing (personally I think a lot of role revealing is even better) is more helpful to town than it is to mafia.


AS A RESULT,
I will be revealing my actual role on day 3. In doing so, I may end up revealing things about other players, either directly or indirectly. I will also post theories I have gathered to coincide with my role and what I've seen in the posts and votes so far. If you think I'm about to throw for town, I would encourage you to actually considering sharing your info instead, especially after you read what I have to say. If the right people coordinate with me on day 3 I'm like 99% confident we can pinpoint 2 mafia right there and then, without having to rely on my reads (which some might consider unreliable).

If mafia or otyugh wants to eat me before I can info dump, so be it. It will definitely make for an interesting game. If mafia kills me the question becomes, did they kill me because they knew that I knew who they were? Or did they kill me because the people I have accused are town, and mafia killing me will likely lead to town lynching those I accused, effectively allowing mafia to kill 2 birds with 1 stone. I foresaw this latter possibility way before, and the way I chose to counter it was by simply being right in my accusations. If ian really is mafia, then I essentially checkmated them. Either they keep me alive and I offer my evidence to get doubtful townies to join me, or they kill me and risk everyone lynching ian because I was so adamant about him being mafia.


P.S. If I sound crazy and like a mafia-helping towny, don't blame me. I speedbuilt this post. Also, replace mafia with townie whenever I'm talking about ian.

[MasterWalks]

It sounds like you are bored. It sounds like you want to speed up the game.

Which roles would you like revealed? FFQ, Mindflayer, and what else?

[shockcannon]

It all depends. But after I role reveal and share, if people think there info is relevant after what I share, I think they should reveal. At least a couple people.

ALSO, I just wanted to add something else that may be considered a little to spicy.
I REALLY REALLY REALLY think Golden Nymph should reveal the moment they know the identities of 3 other ALIVE players, even if these players are all town. This reveal would offer everyone with 4 confirmed primary roles since golden nymph is revealing themselves. Having 4 confirmed primary roles gives town the upperhand for AT LEAST that day. We can use this to make a real play in voting. Confirmed players could then role reveal and share info that we can use to retroactively spot mafia through unusual voting patterns in the past or find out if one of them straight up lied at some point.

If you think about it, we are likely to lose a player almost every night and day. And since GN is EOR, the odds of GN having useful info actually DROPS the longer the game goes on because it's highly likely that GN targets will just end up dying. For GN to have 3 confirmed alive players, that would take 5 straight night phases with none of the GN targets dying. That's actually a pretty long time. As a result, I think it's 100% reasonable and smart to have GN reveal whenever they manage to get 3 alive and confirmed players.

I know we decided on waiting for 2 confirmed mafia, but I think 3 confirmed townies is almost (obviously not quite) as valuable and it's not worth risking losing GN without getting any info at all.

KEEP IN MIND, GN can't leave breadcrumbs with votes if they are only finding town. Knowing confirmed town is WAY better than knowing nothing and gambling on GN hitting the right person while not getting role blocked or killed.

One other thing to keep in mind, GN can't go through invulnerable without momentum and we don't know what roles are in play and which factions control those roles. From a purely odds standpoint, the longer this game goes, the greater the chance that something goes wrong related to the GN.

[MasterWalks]

I am actually down for shocks plan. The only problem is people lying, which is almost a guaranteed thing to happen.

[shockcannon]

One last note, I am currently altering my info dump a little. I missed a couple early posts that may have drastic consequences on my read. For those concerned about what my current reads appear to be, I'm reevaluating ddevans and ian to explore the small chance they are both town. I am also reevaluating RootRanger, MasterWalks, and Espithel as all possible mafia candidates as to not underestimate their capability to use dumb townie as a disguise.

[MasterWalks]

I would like to add to this plan.
I think ONLY 4 roles reveal, and only specific ones.

Psion- Who you targeted and if we should be wary of any of their roles. You dont have to reveal their roles tho

Otyugh- explain why you targeted dd. If psion outs you and you dont explain, expect to be lynched.

Phoenix- You can cover while other roles do work. You can still talk. I really hope this is a person who hasnt talked much so far.

GN- Lets be real, you are probably going to be able to only target 2 people while you live. Reveal your targets and their primary role. Mafia or not.

If psion is town, i request that if we have another GA, they protect psion.
Otyugh, you better be good with words, this will not be that pretty for you, and it will be much much worse if you are discovered without claiming.
GN, expect to die asap after revealing.

If someone claims one of these roles, and you also have it, you should claim too. Town can deduce if there are multiple or only one and decide which one to trust.

[MasterWalks]

I would like to add to this plan.
I think ONLY 4 roles reveal, and only specific ones.

Psion- Who you targeted and if we should be wary of any of their roles. You dont have to reveal their identities tho if it wouldnt help.

EBWOP

[ddevans96]

I missed a couple early posts that may have drastic consequences on my read. For those concerned about what my current reads appear to be, I'm reevaluating ddevans and ian to explore the small chance they are both town.

To be clear - are you saying you suspect it is very unlikely that we are both town, and so it is very likely at least one of us is mafia? Or are you saying you suspect is very unlikely either of us is town, and so it is very likely that we are both mafia?

[ddevans96]

I skimmed through shock's plans over a drink, and I have no objections so large that I would like to voice them before the input of others. I think we've acted upon worse ideas in the past.

[Submachine]

I suggest we wait for today's lynch before this whole roleclaim thing, which I am really not too sure about. It didnt help at all last game and I suspect a similar result

Also, shock realized he cant read people so now he is going for this roleclaim madness again. From 100% mafia to 100% town. I am awaiting the next flip.