I didn't expect this much activity this game; quite a bit to catch up to. Anyway:
I am not particularly happy with lynching Insig. I find it possible that there are two Warden, especially divided between the two factions. The only (?) other duplicate role we have good reason to believe exists is FFQ.
The only way I see an Otyugh using their ability on dd this early is if a Fate Egg got GN and investigated him N0 and then got Otyugh and targetted him N1, but dd said he caught a firefly N0 and no one called him out on this, so this is not possible.
You just said 'GN' and 'call him out' in one sentence. I get that it's unlikely but those two don't mix well.
[13:15:26] ‹Calindu› Unless another player is just insanely far ahead, I always retaliate with the robber in Catan lol
You are bad and you should feel bad. While I see the entertainment that can provide there are people who overdo this kind of thing. In Risk there are players who just go about killing off the first person that attacks them regardless of anything else. So, no one attacks them, they easily win a very unfun game. So, everyone needs to eliminate that players first before they can have a game. Everything just goes overboard when you have unwavering principles. Back to business:
[14:30:52] ‹shockcannon› i think there's a decent i get lynched day 2
I don't think too many people want that. I definitely don't.
I think we are still missing moehrpis justification for JcJ-lynch; he made a vague claim about jcj being too quiet, later mused taking it back but didn't.
This is true. Here's a question:Did moehrpi start it?Or, did Root, sensing an opportunity, continue it?
I didn't really want to address the first part of the question / Espi's question, but here's a minimalist answer: Obviously, I started it but without much thought. Maybe it went something like this: 'Who to put a (meaningless) vote on? JCJ was more active last game, aight.' without even considering other candidates after finding one or looking for an explanation which even was there. Not much to deliberate about from my point of view but I see why it's intriguing. But I certainly don't want to take the credit for that lynch.
Concerning the second, red, part: this is very true and I explain it with the voting dynamic at the end of the day. If it is not detailed enough, I could go back and look through the thread and chat to reconstruct the course of events but will refrain from doing so just now.
I was around when dd started to pile up votes for JCJ, iancu quickly followed. Most people including myself accepted the fact that we would most likely lynch town and therefore didn't really want to kill an active town, dd, while not happy about killing JCJ either but it's what quickly brewed up (with under a half hour left, so necessarily so) after votes #3 and #4 (four votes each). At this point it should be somewhat clear that removing my vote would ruin the latest development. Espi broke the tie before the deadline,
after he said he would in chat so we would guarantee a lynch. I was happy not to have to force the decision, knowing that I would in case of a tie. shock added his vote for five votes each, repeat. MW steps in, I joke about removing my vote, Jonny dies.
I had the chance to change the outcome until the very end by going against the people around you who make a collective effort which is intimidating. In retrospect it might have been a mistake as I would have been sure that it's not mafia who lead the lynch. Call me gullible. But as stated earlier the whole thing was had to be a mob to let dd live. A bit more on this later.
The connections are between Cal and kae, and Cal and IW. Espi can discuss the former and I've talked about the latter in thread - I'm away from home on phone currently.
The strongest connection is between you and insig. Albeit one-sided.
(Also, figured people would guess Dragonfly or another info role)
If I am not mistaken FFQ and Warden were the only possibilities but you confirmed Warden yourself a bit later.
Devil's advocate here, but also bear in mind Insig's ward on dd did save his life. Sure, it prevented whatever action he attempted, but he gets to stay alive to help us sort out this mess. The question now is why did a FE/Oty try to kill dd? Townie making that play is odd. Likely came from mafia source. Let's also recall that ian's ability failed. It's possible that he's the FE/Oty, and if so, highly likely to be mafia.
Not sure what relevance I saw in this post maybe one of those:
shock joked about being Oty very early in this game. I don't think he is, though.
Town could make that play as FE, as someone else (Cal?) already said.
Devil's advocate here, but also bear in mind Insig's ward on dd did save his life. Sure, it prevented whatever action he attempted, but he gets to stay alive to help us sort out this mess. The question now is why did a FE/Oty try to kill dd? Townie making that play is odd. Likely came from mafia source. Let's also recall that ian's ability failed. It's possible that he's the FE/Oty, and if so, highly likely to be mafia.
I can't disagree with this being a legitimate possibility. That being said, it's also legitimately possible that IW is mafia Warden, and a town Oty convinced that I'm a likelymafia and comfortable taking heat if they were wrong decided to pull the trigger. I don't think it would be an unusual play, just an aggressive one. Maybe a decent play in the early game, since I'm going to be a goldmine for information when I die. Maybe.Regardless - the Warden softclaim isn't the whole picture, it's just some little things that just give me this uneasy feeling. It's the only thing I have that I would actually call a scumread right now.Aside: what if shock is town Oty? Almost completely lines up - most of us see him as town, he did have a shift in how he seems to be viewing me seemingly over the night phase, he's a wildcard who can handle criticism. There's too many missing pieces to be comfortable thinking that, however - more of an amusing scenario.
Insig's is not a softclaim anymore at this point.
Again, shock did joke about eating someone very early.
I'd like to hear more from shock but understand that I need to exercise patience..
...more like sus of dd which a lot of people are.
Feels like it's just you, shock, and Cal at present. Granted, three's a crowd, so still valid. Maybe also Espi and Mobian? Hard to be sure.
I am also suspicious of most people who are actively engaging in the discussion including you. But in your case I tell myself I need to sit back a bit.
The reason I am suspicious is because you avoided being lynched and pushed (with great ease) the lynch on town GA. I was in accord with that but seeing the outcome it's just not comfortable. But if you were town it's the only viable play you had left unless you have a shitty role, then the small chance to kill mafia might not be worth it. The last part is the reason I try to come to my senses and see reason. If you were mafia it's a good play but needs to rouse suspicion.
However, I don't think it's a good idea to lynch dd. He's a good way to get rid of Oty. Which is great if either he himself or Oty is mafia. It's pretty bad if both are town as we could have made better use of Oty later in the game. And good or bad if it was FE depending on what dd flips, but also mostly irrelevant now. Even if it does tell us a bit about another person's read.
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