Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine

[iancudorinmarian]

Add my breadcrumb vote on Espi

[iancudorinmarian]

Moving my vote to insig

[ddevans96]

immortal feud (1) - Espithel
shockcannon (1) - RootRanger
kaempfer13 (2) - MasterWalks, ddevans96
ddevans96 (2) - Calindu, shockcannon
Espithel (1) - iancudorinmarian

----

immortal feud (1) - Espithel
shockcannon (1) - RootRanger
kaempfer13 (2) - MasterWalks, ddevans96
ddevans96 (2) - Calindu, shockcannon
InsignificantWeeaboo (1) - iancudorinmarian

----

immortal feud (1) - Espithel
shockcannon (1) - RootRanger
kaempfer13 (1) - MasterWalks
ddevans96 (2) - Calindu, shockcannon
InsignificantWeeaboo (2) - iancudorinmarian, ddevans96

Going with my gut feeling, since I'm not completely alone this time.

[dawn to dusk]

immortal feud (1) - Espithel
shockcannon (1) - RootRanger
kaempfer13 (1) - MasterWalks
ddevans96 (2) - Calindu, shockcannon
InsignificantWeeaboo (3) - iancudorinmarian, ddevans96, dawn to dusk

Claiming Warden, after having established that Warden is a potentially scummy ability

[Mobian]

Devil's advocate here, but also bear in mind Insig's ward on dd did save his life. Sure, it prevented whatever action he attempted, but he gets to stay alive to help us sort out this mess. The question now is why did a FE/Oty try to kill dd? Townie making that play is odd. Likely came from mafia source. Let's also recall that ian's ability failed. It's possible that he's the FE/Oty, and if so, highly likely to be mafia.

[ddevans96]

Spoiler for Chat Log, 0600 GMT (regarding: I try to get input out of dawn):

[2019-05-27 23:53:14] ‹MasterWalks› ‹@dawn_to_dusk› whats your scum reads?
[2019-05-27 23:55:23] ‹dawn_to_dusk› If I had any clear reads I wouldn't have abstained from voting yesterday
[2019-05-27 23:58:40] ‹ddevans96› and nothing's happened to change your reads?
[2019-05-27 23:59:55] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Nothing has changed that has given me any clear directive on anything
[2019-05-28 00:00:22] ‹dawn_to_dusk› I'm bad at mafia
[2019-05-28 00:00:50] ‹ddevans96› fair and valid
[2019-05-28 00:01:05] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Being certain about anything other than yourself is a terrible thing though
[2019-05-28 00:01:09] ‹ddevans96› any hunches/gut instincts?
[2019-05-28 00:01:14] ‹ddevans96› anything in the thread catch your eye?
[2019-05-28 00:02:06] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Mainly just stuff about roles
[2019-05-28 00:02:39] ‹dawn_to_dusk› That being said, we all talk about how Warden is a very scummy role due to the patterns, then IW claims Warden right after
[2019-05-28 00:03:14] ‹ddevans96› something about IW this game really just has not sat right with me
[2019-05-28 00:03:23] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Also note that there was 1 Firefly N0 and 2 Fireflies N1
[2019-05-28 00:03:30] ‹ddevans96› idk what. it's mostly hunch, and some very circumstantial things that could very well mean nothing
[2019-05-28 00:04:02] ‹ddevans96› assuming everyone is being honest, yeah
[2019-05-28 00:04:11] ‹ddevans96› (I would lean towards that being the case)
[2019-05-28 00:04:16] ‹dawn_to_dusk› I've gone over a lot of scenarios in my head
[2019-05-28 00:04:38] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Some stuff could be a lie, but I don't see much of the inconsequential things
[2019-05-28 00:05:24] ‹dawn_to_dusk› I'm thinking of a couple roles that could be mafia though, but I don't want to reveal that yet
[2019-05-28 00:07:00] ‹ddevans96› fair
[2019-05-28 00:09:32] ‹ddevans96› what're your thoughts about the four people who have votes on them? (feud 1, shock 1, me 2, kaempfer 2)
[2019-05-28 00:11:43] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Don't kill Shock
[2019-05-28 00:11:49] ‹dawn_to_dusk› First and foremost
[2019-05-28 00:14:05] ‹dawn_to_dusk› If Root doesn't shift vote then it's shady on Root because we've discussed killing Shock on the next day phase anyway
[2019-05-28 00:14:37] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Feud's vote is to get him talking, I don't think there's too much to read into it

[MasterWalks]

Dont think we should lynch insig yet. No one ever said to not role block N1.

Claiming Warden, after having established that Warden is a potentially scummy ability

So are wards just not supposed to use their abilities then? I dont think this necessarily means insig is scummy, more like sus of dd which a lot of people are.

I still find the whole thing very very strange but i would rather wait it out and see what else he does. Its not like lynching him is going to give us much information.

[dawn to dusk]

So are wards just not supposed to use their abilities then?

2.) We also need to hold off on using roleblocking/kill roles. This refers to Warden, Toadfish, Otyugh, Mind Flayer, Arctic Squid, Ghost of the Past. If we use these roles on random targets, it's likely that an important role (Golden Nymph, or even GA/Psion/Dragonfly) will be blocked, or a civilian with an important role will be killed. We had civilians roleblocking civilians last game and it was a nightmare. Yes, it's possible that a mafia with psion or roleblocking could be blocked, but even more likely we block one of own civs. If you have good reason to be suspicious of someone, then yeah you can roleblock them (although I almost always disagree with renegade kill roles being used unless it's a last ditch effort to win), but otherwise I wouldn't use them.

They are not, no

[ddevans96]

Devil's advocate here, but also bear in mind Insig's ward on dd did save his life. Sure, it prevented whatever action he attempted, but he gets to stay alive to help us sort out this mess. The question now is why did a FE/Oty try to kill dd? Townie making that play is odd. Likely came from mafia source. Let's also recall that ian's ability failed. It's possible that he's the FE/Oty, and if so, highly likely to be mafia.

I can't disagree with this being a legitimate possibility. That being said, it's also legitimately possible that IW is mafia Warden, and a town Oty convinced that I'm a likelymafia and comfortable taking heat if they were wrong decided to pull the trigger. I don't think it would be an unusual play, just an aggressive one. Maybe a decent play in the early game, since I'm going to be a goldmine for information when I die. Maybe.

Regardless - the Warden softclaim isn't the whole picture, it's just some little things that just give me this uneasy feeling. It's the only thing I have that I would actually call a scumread right now.

Aside: what if shock is town Oty? Almost completely lines up - most of us see him as town, he did have a shift in how he seems to be viewing me seemingly over the night phase, he's a wildcard who can handle criticism. There's too many missing pieces to be comfortable thinking that, however - more of an amusing scenario.

...more like sus of dd which a lot of people are.

Feels like it's just you, shock, and Cal at present. Granted, three's a crowd, so still valid. Maybe also Espi and Mobian? Hard to be sure.


Also, for what it's worth - I'm all for using some abilities now, as Root suggests at the end of that post:

If you have good reason to be suspicious of someone, then yeah you can roleblock them (although I almost always disagree with renegade kill roles being used unless it's a last ditch effort to win), but otherwise I wouldn't use them.

Just put actual thought into what your plan is.

[MasterWalks]

2.) We also need to hold off on using roleblocking/kill roles. This refers to Warden, Toadfish, Otyugh, Mind Flayer, Arctic Squid, Ghost of the Past. If we use these roles on random targets, it's likely that an important role (Golden Nymph, or even GA/Psion/Dragonfly) will be blocked, or a civilian with an important role will be killed. We had civilians roleblocking civilians last game and it was a nightmare. Yes, it's possible that a mafia with psion or roleblocking could be blocked, but even more likely we block one of own civs. If you have good reason to be suspicious of someone, then yeah you can roleblock them (although I almost always disagree with renegade kill roles being used unless it's a last ditch effort to win), but otherwise I wouldn't use them.

almost everyone has been suspicious of dd all game. He was literally a vote away from being our first lynch. I bet my bottom dollar all that sketched insig out and he role blocked him.

HOWEVER, i still dont understand why he would just outs himself like that after he did role block.

[ddevans96]

I don't really think 'almost everyone' is entirely accurate. Here were the votes on me last round:

Cal: Has voted on me both rounds
shock: Voted on me late last round, early this round, seems convinced I'm mafia now whereas he didn't midway through last day
MW: Had vote on me briefly last round, has continued voicing suspicion of me

Link: Started train with strong push, retracted to neutral later
Mobian: Voted on me late last round, some conversation, otherwise very little interaction with me
Espi: Put vote on me midway through train, later voted on jcj to help save me
IW: Voted immediately after Link, has pretty much done nothing related to me since

And that basically sums up all real suspicion on me. That's less than half the players - even if I'm misremembering and can't recall two, that's still exactly half excluding myself.

Also, I don't see 'all game' to be accurate either - I don't recall any suspicion voiced towards me before Link's vote for me.

I'm not even using this as a defense, if anything people should be more suspicious of me than they are, just feels like this detail is not being accurately portrayed.

[iancudorinmarian]

The issue with using warden on suspicious people is it also blocks information roles used on that player.