Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine

[Linkcat]

Alright, just woke up. Going through the thread again.

The odds of you being GN are the same 1-in-19 as they are for anyone else.

The odds of MW being GN are a lot higher because he made a fairly bold claim of someone being scummy.

That's not how probabilities work, Linkcat. If the odds of MW being GN are higher than 1/19, the the odds of everyone else being GN are lower than 1/19.

Linkcat is scum confirmed, trying to sway us by pulling numbers out of his ass.

Wtf? I never even said this, Root said this in his failed quote. If this is a joke, I don't really get it.

I find it strange that Root actually believes MW has a higher chance of being GN. There's no way MW is GN.

Espithel (1) - ddevans96
MasterWalks (2) - kaempfer13, JonathanCrazyJ
dawn to dusk (2) - iancudorinmarian, mathman101
JonathanCrazyJ (2) - moehrpi, RootRanger
shockcannon (2) - Calindu, Espithel
iancudorinmarian (1) - shockcannon
ddevans96 (3) - Linkcat, InsignificantWeeaboo, MasterWalks

I change my vote due to Links experience, but Espi, dont think you are off yet.

I BEG that someone roleblock Espi. Please.

If you change your vote just because someone has experience, you're going to have a bad time. What if I'm mafia? You just gave me a free vote. Vote for whoever you think is mafia, but try to have good reasons and not vote on someone silly just for being silly. Espi posted that picture of a tunnel because that's what you're doing. You have to constantly reevaluate.

Spoiler for Hidden:

It is true that in games that I am confident in my skills at, I usually have a lot more laidback playstyle. TBH I've come to realize that lynching people on the base of their actions not helping town, when the reason seems to be incompetence or a plain missunderstanding is actually a mistake. The actual reason for that was not immediately intuitive to me though and I only realized today why not only the people I am directly targeting but also people who are definitely more experienced than me disagreed with me.
Assuming every towny lynched people who deviate from the gameplan for reasons that are perfectly in line with their character (and thus more likely than not town if thats the only lead), mafia will never have to bother much with lynches and fit right in with no information gained for us during the day phase.

I will act not so rash in the future anymore and also try to refrain a bit more from discussion that doesnt help finding leads, even if it means having to accept that some of our allies either actively choose (for the fun factor or due to thinking they know better) to play suboptimally. After all it too seems that I aint quite got the hang of this.

So for now I will wait for more information to make a move. Which ironically means my vote on mw remains for a while even though I admitted its likely a mistake

As for why I quite strongly believe espi to be town or at least mws claim to be completely baseless, even though he clearly feels strongly about it: Similiar to DC and somewhat shock (although espi does strike me as better mafia player than either) simply has an irritating personality that most of us got used to, but mw clearly hasnt. Everything espi said (even if some of it is controversial) seems perfectly sound from townperspective to me and he definitely helps furthering discussion (towns primary weapon!) and he has experience (at least by virtue of sheer number of games played). If he is town, which -statistically speaking- he is, I would not want to lose him.

And yh, I too am curious about dd feeling so strongly about mw vs espi, as it seems to completely hinge on him believing mw to either be gn or mafia. Otherwise we gain no info whatsoever from espi flipping sth and as other people pointed out even if espi flips mafia it doesnt really tell much.

This is a great post, but it looks like you just asked your mafia team what you were doing wrong and came back with this. You're reacting pretty strongly against some light shade.

I'm still on MW. Sadly not had time to fully keep up but every time he talks i want him dead. *shrug*

The reason why lynching 'bad' town is bad is that when people play badly it sparks conversation. It sparks drama. Drama makes people make mistakes in their game. I kinda love the way shock and espi play.

(not related to the game, i really like the makeup of this mafia. we have new players, experienced players, logical ones, chaotic ones. People thinking differently to you is always a good thing. Sparks conversation.

JCJ stop, the first and second parts of your post directly contradict each other. MW is town. I agree that the makeup of this mafia is great.

I can't help but notice how much of what I've said has been misconstrued.

Espithel (1) - ddevans96
MasterWalks (2) - kaempfer13, JonathanCrazyJ
dawn to dusk (2) - iancudorinmarian, mathman101
JonathanCrazyJ (2) - moehrpi, RootRanger
shockcannon (1) - Calindu
iancudorinmarian (1) - shockcannon
kaempfer13 (1) - MasterWalks

Two mafia in this group of voters.

ddevans96 (4) - Linkcat, InsignificantWeeaboo, Calindu, Espithel

Two mafia in this group of voters.

Proper post later, I have housework to take care of.

Considering that the first group contains 10 of 19 players and there's 4 mafia, I agree that there's probably two mafia there. Considering that the second group includes me, there's a pretty low chance that 2/3 of the others are mafia. I also think there's a good chance that a mafia hasn't voted yet.

Now that I look at it, it does seem weird how dd emphasizes Espi and MW as the only options for lynching...

As above, the point was to provide pressure on multiple people - which I succeeded in doing - and I have since moved to expressing a different stance.

This is even more notable to me - I put the most value in a bandwagon on the second vote. One vote can be a throwaway, a lone ranger, a controversial opinion people aren't ready to bite yet, etc. Two votes means something. This was the second vote on me - and it was based on a false statement, with no deeper reasoning.

Disagree, two votes mean nothing, as we can see with dawn and JCJ. The third vote is the one that turns it into something real.

It looks to me like you've only been going after easy lynch targets this game, with weak, if any, actual scumreads.

[ddevans96]

I disagree that lynching one of Espi/MW will give us any information. Espi always does weird shit as town or mafia so lynching him won't give us anything useful. MW thought that something weird that Espi did was weird and got on his case. He seems pretty town to me, and lynching him will just confirm that he was a town that pushed on something weird. Not really valuable information.

You don't find analyzing voting patterns and interactions useful? I know you definitely understand the power of the lynch, and the way little pieces of information stack over the whole game.

I don't see why dd even calls this a feud, since Espi hasn't even given a proper response to MW.

Feud is a loose term - I forget I haven't used it in these forums the way I do in real life. What I mean is that we shouldn't really be trusting either of them right now - even less so than we should generally be trusting each other.

I really don't like the way dd focused the thread on Espi/MW. Instead of putting down a vote like normal, he frames it as an option between two people, which makes it fairly likely that one of those two options will be lynched at the end of the day, especially when one of them is Espi, who has always been easy to lynch. As mafia, this is a great strategy for controlling the lynch and making sure it lands on a town, since it's easy for a mafia to get lynched on Day 1 with all the random votes. And since he's only doing this for "information", he won't even get a bad look for it.

I actually find it rare and surprising when a forked push on day 1, with no actual information, will result in one of the two getting lynched. In fact, even here, it's looking like a strong possibility that such a situation will not be the case.

Also - Espi being 'weird' and 'easy to lynch' is a really interesting statement that keeps getting repeated. I consider him one of the stronger players here, he just doesn't play 'by the book' - neither do myself or shock, just in different ways - and most of the newer players wouldn't know him as a bit of an oddball. Pushing a lynch from that angle just because of past games doesn't make sense - and even if it did, I make a point to isolate games from each other as much as possible, that wouldn't be like me.

And random/arbitrary votes make it harder for a mafia to be lynched on day 1, compared to if we get a lead from an ability or a ton of discussion leading to scumtells. Why would I provoke so much discussion on day 1 if I was mafia?

Considering that the first group contains 10 of 19 players and there's 4 mafia, I agree that there's probably two mafia there. Considering that the second group includes me, there's a pretty low chance that 2/3 of the others are mafia. I also think there's a good chance that a mafia hasn't voted yet.

I think there's a pretty decent chance. This wagon came out of nowhere, led by an experienced player with holes all over his analysis, with the next two people following with bare minimum input of their own. That whole situation is suspicious. Even if it's not two, it's absolutely one.

Disagree, two votes mean nothing, as we can see with dawn and JCJ. The third vote is the one that turns it into something real.

Two votes can mean a lot depending on context. It means more for my votes, which were initiated by your very strong push, than with dawn and JCJ, who had minimal argument against them, and were not in real danger of being lynched even before the votes on me.

It looks to me like you've only been going after easy lynch targets this game, with weak, if any, actual scumreads.

I've already stated why I don't have strong scumreads on day 1. Relying on instinct is a high risk play, and I don't enjoy taking risks in the early game.

Furthermore, I have not 'gone after' a lynch target - you are again ignoring that I have always found value in applying pressure in the early game, regardless of whether I desire the lynch or not, and I have since made clear that I don't have a strong stance towards any one lynch target.

Additionally, you use 'targets', plural - the only person I actually advocated for a lynch for has been Espi.


Think for a minute. You know that none of this really adds up to me being mafia. It's not in line with any playstyle I've adopted, it's not in line with typical early-game mafia play, and most of it's based on inaccurate and subjective claims. You are not showing your strongest deductive town play.

Other people that jump out to me are Coffee for being quiet, kaempfer for not playing how I expected him to, and Root for giving me weird vibes.

Would you be interested in elaborating on these?

Also, I caught a firefly.

Did you hurt it?

Of course not, I love her. I will call her Faye.

[MasterWalks]

Espithel (1) - MasterWalks
MasterWalks (2) - kaempfer13, JonathanCrazyJ
dawn to dusk (2) - iancudorinmarian, mathman101
JonathanCrazyJ (2) - moehrpi, RootRanger
iancudorinmarian (1) - shockcannon
ddevans96 (3) - Linkcat, InsignificantWeeaboo, Calindu
InsignificantWeeaboo (1) - ddevans96

Okay I going to lay back now. Ill stick with my original scum read and wait until I'm out of this tunnel.

[MasterWalks]

Syke! More tunnel for a sec.

My priority is now survival - see my response to Espi. Information is the secondary goal.

Okay so you have a million responses to him but i took a look at the one i assumed was the right one. If we are going to honest with ourselves, "survival first information second" is a "me game". Me survive first, town get information second.
[18:04:46] ‹ddevans96› it's not a 'me' game, that's the thing
So we got contradictions once again.
I dont blame you for defending against a lynch, but helping town should ALWAYS be priority, It has been for me. Right now, you surviving is not helping town, or at least you havent made a point in how it is. So far, you have said "I know i am town". I bet a mafia would say the exact same thing. Really, to me, thats your only excuse. Other than that your defense has been picking posts apart sentence by sentence and explaining yourself. I still am not seeing how that helps town. Your posts are long so it may be that i have missed something you said, but as of now, you are playing a me game.

[Espithel]

[01:36:43] ‹Espithel› What's your opinion on Evan's Weeb scumread, Link?
[01:39:26] ‹ddevans96› ‹@MasterWalks› lol, LongDono showed up?
[01:39:31] ‹ddevans96› haven't seen him in some time
[01:40:01] ‹AveragePotato› The latest forum post is Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine from ddevans96 in Forum Games. Between love and madness lies this post.
[01:42:35] ‹InsignificantWeeaboo› how do i even keep missing feud
[01:44:55] ‹InsignificantWeeaboo›
(5d9) 6 + 7 + 3 + 7 + 9 = 32 ...!
[01:46:01] ‹shockcannon› lol
[01:46:08] ‹shockcannon› moderator needs to nerf me
[01:46:27] ‹shockcannon› changes rules after the fact also
[01:46:34] ‹Espithel› You need a buff lmao
[01:50:21] ‹shockcannon› the only buff i need is town confidence in me
[01:50:24] ‹shockcannon› i already found a mafia
[01:51:56] ‹Espithel› That's a buff, master.
[01:52:01] ‹Espithel› You need it.
[01:53:03] ‹ddevans96› generally, when you're very sure you've found a mafia, you want to be vocal about who it is
[01:53:13] ‹ddevans96› (unless you have a reason to stay lowkey)
[01:57:37] ‹shockcannon› generally, I never do what people want me to do
[01:57:40] ‹shockcannon› that's step 1 to me losing
[02:01:37] ‹Espithel› I want you to be useless, Shock.
[02:04:46] ‹ddevans96› it's not a 'me' game, that's the thing
[02:05:31] ‹MasterWalks› Linkcat you said you forgot to ban codes and ciphers this whole time in your moderator comment. Did you add them or are they ok? I personally dont know any codes besides "snaps" which wouldnt work here, just a question.
[02:05:34] ‹immortal_feud› oh what the, i thought all my matches were good for 50% rule
[02:06:45] ‹InsignificantWeeaboo›
(5d9) 2 + 3 + 5 + 1 + 7 = 18 ...
[02:07:09] ‹MasterWalks› ‹@immortal_feud› Youre matches were good, but if your opponent didnt pass their 50% rule, their game gets deleted, hence you being voided of a game. Personally, i was wary of this rule, and had to double check to make sure thats how its done.
[02:07:27] ‹MasterWalks› That would be a good one for a suggested change if you feel it needs it.
[02:07:33] ‹immortal_feud› yeah i thought i was checking all my opponents too
[02:08:09] ‹MasterWalks› it was either LongDono or Jen-i. If you want, i can figure out which one it was exactly if you dont remember
[02:08:10] ‹immortal_feud› was what happened was my opponent got some win removed so they were lower elo when i beat them or something?
[02:08:16] ‹Espithel› Hang on, this is a problem
[02:08:26] ‹Espithel› What if the cipher's so well hidden you can't see it
[02:08:32] ‹immortal_feud› i dont think i player either of them tho
[02:08:43] ‹immortal_feud› player played dongo
[02:08:48] ‹immortal_feud› and idk who played jen
[02:17:20] ‹MasterWalks› ‹@immortal_feud› ‹@InsignificantWeeaboo› A match was made
[02:17:56] ‹immortal_feud› huh?
[02:18:20] ‹InsignificantWeeaboo› ?
[02:21:31] ‹MasterWalks› you said you were looking for him

Chatlog for context.

I have DnD to play. I'll be back later.

[Linkcat]

Ah, there's nothing quite like picking fights with good players. I've missed this. I would respond to your individual statements, but I have a life so I'll just give a general response.

I still think my push was good, but you had a strong defense so I'm putting you back to neutral for now. I agree that your play this game does not match what I've seen you do as mafia before. However, a lot can change in two years, so I'm undecided on this point. I could push harder but I have a feeling it would just be a repeat of 62, where I lynched rob Day 1 and we were both town.

Your Insig read is still bad, his post is totally in line with what I would expect from him as either alignment. How do you feel about a kaempfer lynch?

[ddevans96]

Syke! More tunnel for a sec.

My priority is now survival - see my response to Espi. Information is the secondary goal.

Okay so you have a million responses to him but i took a look at the one i assumed was the right one. If we are going to honest with ourselves, "survival first information second" is a "me game". Me survive first, town get information second.
[18:04:46] ‹ddevans96› it's not a 'me' game, that's the thing
So we got contradictions once again.

No, there are no contradictions here.

I reiterate: As town, you only have some universal truths at the start of the game. A town knows they are town, and a town player does not know that any other player is town. As such, there is zero chance a mafia is lynched if they are lynched, and there is some chance a mafia gets lynched if someone else is lynched.

This is not a 'me' thing. This is one of the fundamentals of mafia. It is a vastly different thing than potentially withholding and being vague with information (which, to be clear, can also have merit for town to do in certain circumstances - but it is not universal).

I dont blame you for defending against a lynch, but helping town should ALWAYS be priority, It has been for me. Right now, you surviving is not helping town, or at least you havent made a point in how it is. So far, you have said "I know i am town". I bet a mafia would say the exact same thing. Really, to me, thats your only excuse. Other than that your defense has been picking posts apart sentence by sentence and explaining yourself. I still am not seeing how that helps town. Your posts are long so it may be that i have missed something you said, but as of now, you are playing a me game.

Correct, a good mafia should also be making this defense. It ultimately does nothing to move the needle in my favor - it is the correct play for either side.

As for helping town, I believe I've asked some pertinent questions, and I feel that I've done a good job breaking down relevant posts this game. And while some of my defenses have little substance on their own, dissecting posts means more things for other people to respond to, which provokes discussions - that's why I defend myself in that manner.

The nature of mafia is such that scumreads get stronger as the game goes on. When anyone dies, you should be looking at what they said, who they responded to, who mentioned them, who voted for them, who they voted for...mafia's a big puzzle, you don't solve anything on day one. As such, I like to cast a wide net, prodding people for potential scumtells, publicly analyzing as much as I can - eventually, things will be revealed as relevant.

I hope this gives some clarifications on my general playstyle, and how I attempt to use it to town's benefit.

Ah, there's nothing quite like picking fights with good players. I've missed this. I would respond to your individual statements, but I have a life so I'll just give a general response.

I still think my push was good, but you had a strong defense so I'm putting you back to neutral for now. I agree that your play this game does not match what I've seen you do as mafia before. However, a lot can change in two years, so I'm undecided on this point. I could push harder but I have a feeling it would just be a repeat of 62, where I lynched rob Day 1 and we were both town.

Your Insig read is still bad, his post is totally in line with what I would expect from him as either alignment. How do you feel about a kaempfer lynch?

It's true that a lot can change in two years - there is only so much value in looking at games from that long ago.

I have no strong feelings either way about lynching kaempfer.

[Linkcat]

What's your read on me? I find it odd that you haven't given one.

[ddevans96]

Probably Serial Killer.

[Espithel]

On the off-chance that people are looking at this thread at this time in the morning, there's a big discussion going on in blab rn.

Will post once it's over, but that could take some time.

[Linkcat]

Spoiler for We talk for a long time about who to lynch and don't come to any conclusion:

[22:20:01] ‹AveragePotato› The latest forum post is Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine from ddevans96 in Forum Games. It's not a mystery.
[22:20:17] ‹ddevans96› ^ good and useful post in the social deduction game 'mafia' btw
[22:21:14] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Yes
[22:21:16] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Mafia
[22:21:20] ‹dawn_to_dusk› That's what the post is about
[22:21:33] ‹ddevans96› it is technically about mafia
[22:21:37] ‹ddevans96› just not our mafia
[22:22:16] ‹InsignificantWeeaboo› Ok, role reveal time.
[22:22:20] ‹InsignificantWeeaboo› I'm the Butler.
[22:22:39] ‹dawn_to_dusk› I'm the maid
[22:22:44] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Wait
[22:22:50] ‹Espithel› I'm Colonel Mustard
[22:23:38] ‹Linkcat› ‹@dawn_to_dusk› Who is mafia?
[22:23:40] ‹ddevans96› in the billard room with the candlestick
[22:23:58] ‹Linkcat› ‹@Espithel› Same question to you.
[22:25:15] ‹ddevans96› ‹@Linkcat› if the joke answer doesn't make it clear - I don't really have a read on you at present
[22:25:37] ‹ddevans96› just not enough to go on
[22:26:04] ‹Linkcat› Well it's good you cleared that up, cause I thought you had a read and just didn't want to say it for some reason.
[22:27:03] Guest-Scarab-b242e left.
[22:26:55] ‹ddevans96› your behavior this game has literally just been 'I'll get to mafia when I wake up' and 'let's lynch dd'
[22:27:03] ‹ddevans96› just nothing for me to work with right now
[22:27:10] ‹ddevans96› will make sense one way or the other later, I'm sure
[22:27:51] Guest-GiantFrog-c080b joined.
[22:27:47] ‹Guest-GiantFrog-c080b› (6d10) 7 + 8 + 10 + 7 + 3 + 10 = 45 ...!
[22:27:55] ‹Linkcat› (6d10) 8 + 9 + 8 + 5 + 9 + 4 = 43 ...
[22:28:07] MasterWalks left.
[22:28:02] ‹ddevans96› (5d6) 6 + 4 + 3 + 5 + 1 = 19 ...!
[22:28:24] ‹Linkcat› We should really get our lynch sorted out soon.
[22:29:10] ‹ddevans96› yes
[22:30:38] Guest-GiantFrog-c080b left.
[22:31:15] ‹ddevans96› what're you thinking atm?
[22:31:51] ‹Linkcat› I'm pretty open right now.
[22:32:17] ‹Linkcat› More people need to be pushing lynches.
[22:32:35] ‹ddevans96› hm
[22:32:51] ‹Linkcat› All the votes are spread out and some quiet people haven't even voted.
[22:34:45] ‹Linkcat› Like Coffee. He was just here but has barely talked. It's like all the votes are on town so he doesn't even care who gets lynched.
[22:35:31] ‹Linkcat› I know dawn wants to cover for Graboid but it's more valuable to have a proactive vote.
[22:37:45] InsignificantWeeaboo left.Guest-Archangel-5bddf joined.
[22:38:57] Guest-Archangel-5bddf left.Guest-GiantFrog-c080b joined.
[22:38:49] ‹Espithel› Hey.
[22:38:59] ‹Espithel› Can we ask about the nightkill and why it didn't happen?
[22:40:34] ‹Linkcat› Yeah, it's pretty weird that nobody talked about it.
[22:41:16] ‹Linkcat› I mean, either mafia hit a Seraph/Graboid or Angel got the mindgate.
[22:42:10] Guest-Archangel-5bddf joined.
[22:42:11] ‹Espithel› Yeah. Do you think the lack of nightkill could have any relation to our lynch?
[22:42:40] Guest-GiantFrog-c080b left.
[22:42:32] ‹Espithel› ...Actually, no. That'd require the doctor coming out.
[22:43:04] Guest-Archangel-5bddf left.
[22:42:59] ‹Espithel› My scumreads right now is simply that Walks is, well. *Definitely* town.
[22:43:29] ‹Espithel› I'm very, very disappointed with Root's argument for lynching me between the two - I am more likely than Walks to be the nymph.
[22:43:43] ‹Espithel› Him being that... Wrong? Is uncharacteristic.
[22:43:54] ‹Espithel› But I feel we can give that the benefit of the doubt.
[22:44:54] ‹dawn_to_dusk› ‹@Linkcat› Tbh I have no idea who to vote for
[22:44:59] ‹ddevans96› Link also said he gets weird vibes from Root, to be fair
[22:45:19] ‹dawn_to_dusk› The main thing that Root has done in 2 games was die after claiming Phoenix
[22:45:27] ‹ddevans96› I kinda agree, actually, based on his response to my question earlier
[22:45:30] ‹ddevans96› but hard to be sure
[22:45:42] ‹dawn_to_dusk› He could potentially just be rusty
[22:45:48] ‹dawn_to_dusk› (Hi Root if you read this in the thread)
[22:45:48] ‹ddevans96› maybe, yeah
[22:45:58] ‹Espithel› I feel that, if one of Kae and Calindu are mafia, they will *both* be mafia, but I'm not sure that either is. I think Calindu is town...ish?
[22:46:16] ‹Espithel› Kae is neutral.
[22:46:19] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Who can we vote for, where if they flip town, we get the most information?>
[22:46:34] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Obviously some people if they flip mafia will give a fair amount, MW, dd
[22:46:49] ‹dawn_to_dusk› I'd argue less with Espithel, though enough people are going after him that it does give some
[22:46:57] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Some information*
[22:47:13] ‹dawn_to_dusk› But that's assuming they're mafia
[22:47:20] ‹dawn_to_dusk› If they're civ, how much info do we really get
[22:47:39] ‹Espithel› You should lynch who you think is mafia, not who you think is town.
[22:47:54] ‹Espithel› The first mafia lynch is the biggest information dump in the game.
[22:47:56] ‹dawn_to_dusk› I mean obviously
[22:48:16] ‹Espithel› ‹@Linkcat› ‹@ddevans96› Who hasn't posted at all? Maybe we could lynch a lurker.
[22:48:17] ‹dawn_to_dusk› First lynches are very very rarely mafia though
[22:48:43] ‹dawn_to_dusk› "Lynch who you think is mafia" "Oh btw lynch the afk dude"
[22:48:45] ‹Espithel› Or, not posted. Not voted, I meant.
[22:48:56] ‹dawn_to_dusk› :^)
[22:49:00] ‹Linkcat› dawn hasn't voted
[22:49:05] ‹Linkcat› Let's lynch him.
[22:49:09] ‹dawn_to_dusk› I have posted though
[22:49:10] ‹ddevans96› inactivity lynch? maybe
[22:49:16] ‹dawn_to_dusk›
[22:49:17] ‹Espithel› It's very likely that one of the mafia hasn't voted. That list might be as small as the list of four that voted on Evans.
[22:49:22] ‹Espithel› Not meant to be an inactivity lynch
[22:49:32] ‹Linkcat› With 20 pages I don't think an inactivity lynch is correct.
[22:50:00] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Immortal Feud and Mathman would be the ones to look at
[22:50:10] ‹dawn_to_dusk› For inactivity
[22:50:47] ‹dawn_to_dusk› I think it's likely that exactly one mafia hasn't voted
[22:51:06] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Oh I misread that as unlikely
[22:51:09] ‹dawn_to_dusk› My point stands though
[22:51:57] ‹Espithel› Yeah. Those would be my suggestions.
[22:52:17] ‹Espithel› 1) Lynch Kae or Cal. If one flips mafia, lynch the other. If one flips town, the other one is likely town.
[22:52:32] ‹Espithel› 2) Lynch someone who voted on Evans.
[22:52:43] ‹Espithel› 3) Lynch someone who hasn't voted - Ginyu, Immortal, Mathman.
[22:52:56] ‹Espithel› And also dawn, I suppose.
[22:53:01] ‹Linkcat› Why is there a relationship between kaempfer and Calin?
[22:53:09] ‹Espithel› They're both supportive of me.
[22:53:38] ‹ddevans96› Cal meets two of those criteria
[22:53:44] ‹ddevans96› that could be either a good thing or a bad thing, though
[22:53:54] ‹dawn_to_dusk› The venn diagram wins
[22:53:55] ‹Linkcat› I like Calin though
[22:54:04] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Me too
[22:54:21] ‹ddevans96› I'd rather not lynch him, he's a town lean for me atm actually
[22:54:53] ‹Espithel› Their movements seem rather in sync with each other, at least in my opinion. This is something better suited for a forum post.
[22:55:16] ‹dawn_to_dusk› If movements are in sync that's a huge red flag
[22:55:32] ‹dawn_to_dusk› But also careless
[22:56:04] ‹Espithel› I think Calindu would pass "being mafia 101"
[22:56:10] ‹Espithel› I don't think Cal's that stupid.
[22:56:21] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Exactly
[22:56:24] ‹dawn_to_dusk› What of Kae?
[22:56:33] ‹Espithel› Don't know Kae as a person.
[22:57:15] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Cal can't do much if Kae follows him
[22:58:13] ‹Espithel› What do you mean by that?
[22:59:40] ‹dawn_to_dusk› If we're being suspicious of the two based on them being "close", and we're saying that Calin wouldn't do that to Kae, there's the chance that Kae is doing it to Calin
[22:59:55] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Albeit slim
[23:00:10] ‹ddevans96› I don't think that's it, honestly
[23:00:15] ‹Espithel› I feel that if they're both scum, Kae would be disciplined for doing such.
[23:00:16] ‹ddevans96› I'd guess they're both town
[23:00:20] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Neither do I
[23:00:27] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Yeah that's the other thing
[23:00:44] ‹dawn_to_dusk› But how do you casually stop it
[23:01:00] ‹dawn_to_dusk› There are ways, of course
[23:01:19] MasterWalks joined.
[23:01:50] ‹Espithel› Yeah, option 1 doesn't seem to be the way to go.
[23:01:54] ‹Espithel› So there's option 2 and 3.
[23:02:30] ‹ddevans96› I'm not in favor of the inactivity lynch, personally
[23:02:44] MasterWalks left.
[23:02:35] ‹ddevans96› not with Graboid in the picture
[23:02:48] ‹Espithel› It's not meant to be an inactivity lynch - Ginyu isn't inactive
[23:02:52] ‹ddevans96› and I don't want to say 'lynch someone who voted on me' bc that would sound mega omgus
[23:02:55] ‹Espithel› But, yeah, Graboid does muck with it.
[23:03:03] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Inactivity lynch someone who voted?
[23:03:07] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Aka Math lmao
[23:03:19] ‹Espithel› Because we're pretty sure there's at least 1 scum in those two camps, and those two camps are small, it's slightly better than a random lynch.
[23:03:24] ‹Espithel› That's my logic here.
[23:03:43] ‹ddevans96› that would hold to reason, yeah
[23:03:49] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Psuedo random lynch?
[23:03:55] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Hm
[23:04:08] ‹dawn_to_dusk› So then option 2
[23:04:18] ‹dawn_to_dusk› What would the reasoning be for that?
[23:04:38] ‹Linkcat› I don't agree with lynching based on a group of people.
[23:04:42] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Because they were quick to jump on the wagon despite the information being unclear or something?
[23:04:50] ‹Linkcat› You lynch individuals.
[23:04:51] ‹Espithel› The way that Linkcat created that poke, and it turned into a 4-way post immediately.
[23:05:31] Guest-Archangel-5bddf joined.
[23:06:35] ‹dawn_to_dusk› You can look at a group to find options to vote for
[23:06:41] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Then assess each person individually
[23:07:01] ‹Espithel› I think there's exactly 1 scum in that (if there's a second scum, it has to be Link) - because again, you don't want to make your movements synchronous.
[23:07:38] ‹dawn_to_dusk› So in that group you have Link, Insig, Calin, and who?
[23:07:38] ‹Espithel› Can we ask why we want to protect the graboid so much?
[23:07:51] ‹Linkcat› Wait, what are you talking about?
[23:08:05] ‹dawn_to_dusk› The people who voted dd
[23:08:26] shockcannon joined.
[23:08:15] ‹dawn_to_dusk› There were 4, weren't there?
[23:08:24] ‹Espithel› Link, Insig, Calin, Walks, and Me. Walks changed his vote to Kae, and I removed my vote.
[23:08:25] ‹shockcannon› listen
[23:08:29] ‹shockcannon› ian is maf
[23:08:34] ‹shockcannon› it's going to take you guys 4 days to figure that out
[23:08:35] ‹Linkcat› OH, hey shock.
[23:08:36] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Ahh
[23:08:38] ‹shockcannon› but you heard it here first
[23:08:46] ‹Espithel› Welp
[23:08:49] ‹Espithel› The lord has spoken!
[23:08:53] ‹Espithel› We're lynching Ian.
[23:08:55] ‹Linkcat› Hmm, my shift key has been getting stuck on the second letter a lot.
[23:08:58] ‹dawn_to_dusk› ‹@shockcannon› His vote was nothing but an "RNG" vote, wasn't it?
[23:09:00] ‹ddevans96› we could also just lynch iancu, that's also an option
[23:09:24] shockcannon left.
[23:09:16] ‹ddevans96› we'll find out if shock is full of shit or not
[23:09:31] ‹Linkcat› Nah, we already know he is.
[23:09:31] ‹ddevans96› might be worth it on those merits alone
[23:09:37] ‹ddevans96› well, yeah, but what kind
[23:09:47] ‹Linkcat› If dd is mafia then I think there's 0 mafia that voted on him.
[23:09:51] ‹Linkcat› That would be big.
[23:10:00] ‹dawn_to_dusk› What's the chance that Shock is great 2 games in a row
[23:10:02] ‹Linkcat› All the kinds.
[23:10:10] ‹dawn_to_dusk› That's true
[23:10:16] ‹Espithel› 0 mafia
[23:10:18] ‹Espithel› ?
[23:10:36] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Link is one of those 0 mafia btw
[23:11:16] ‹ddevans96› yeah, if I were mafia, it would be an insanely risk play for any of the other mafia to have made any of those votes
[23:11:49] ‹Espithel› True.
[23:12:05] ‹dawn_to_dusk› What was the voting order?
[23:12:12] ‹dawn_to_dusk› For those who voted dd
[23:12:18] ‹Linkcat› ME, Insig, Calin, Espi
[23:12:23] ‹ddevans96› Link, IW, Cal, Espi
[23:12:35] ‹dawn_to_dusk› And of MW?
[23:13:00] ‹Linkcat› kaempfer JCJ I think
[23:13:05] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Which was the one I was more curious about
[23:13:32] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Wait what?
[23:13:41] ‹Linkcat› Lol, dawn still has 2 votes.
[23:13:43] ‹dawn_to_dusk› "Walks changed his vote to Kae"
[23:13:48] ‹dawn_to_dusk› That's what I mean
[23:13:55] ‹dawn_to_dusk› When did MW vote dd
[23:14:01] ‹AveragePotato› The latest forum post is Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine from Espithel in Forum Games. Save this for bedtime reading.
[23:14:10] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Lol it's true you can check
[23:14:35] ‹Espithel› http://elementscommunity.org/forum/forum-game...
[23:15:07] ‹dawn_to_dusk› I don't understand why ian voting for me makes him mafia
[23:15:14] ‹dawn_to_dusk› But I don't think anyone else understands that either
[23:15:18] ‹ddevans96› oh, yeah, he did do that, I forgot
[23:15:36] ‹Espithel› So: Link (created), Insig, Walks, Walks immediately pokes Kae because of that damn tunnel vision, Calindu, Espithel, Espithel removes his vote to foster discussion.
[23:15:46] ‹dawn_to_dusk› If dd is mafia I think MW might be as well
[23:16:05] ‹Espithel› I am absolutely, diehard sure MW is town.
[23:16:14] ‹Espithel› To the point where I don't think lynching him is up for discussion at all
[23:16:22] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Fair
[23:16:22] ‹ddevans96› MW is very likely town
[23:16:35] ‹Espithel› However, yes.
[23:16:41] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Lynching him doesn't reveal much other than his opinions are his opinions so like
[23:17:10] ‹Espithel› So if we want to go down this route, then we're looking at Calindu, Insig, Me, or Link.
[23:17:27] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Mainly just saying that if dd flips, of the people who did vote him, MW is the most likely outside of other reasoning
[23:17:33] ‹dawn_to_dusk› And said reasoning makes him more likely to be town
[23:19:31] ‹Espithel› Insig's done basically nothing, so it's hard to pin him down.
[23:19:36] ‹Espithel› So, you all think Calindu's town, yeah?
[23:20:02] ‹Linkcat› Yes
[23:20:16] ‹ddevans96› yeah
[23:20:26] ‹Linkcat› I don't like where this is going.
[23:20:57] ‹Espithel› Well, if option 1 is out of the question, and option 2 is out of the question. That leaves us with Espithel option 3, or something else entirely.
[23:21:37] shockcannon joined.
[23:21:51] ‹shockcannon› i hope you realize one of you 4 is mafia
[23:22:00] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Which one?
[23:22:11] ‹shockcannon› i'll save that for day 3
[23:22:15] ‹shockcannon›
[23:22:17] ‹ddevans96› I mean, that's a strong possibility, yeah
[23:22:21] ‹Linkcat› I still want to lynch kaempfer
[23:23:03] ‹dawn_to_dusk› I don't like Espithel option 3
[23:23:21] ‹Espithel› I don't like Espithel option 2 ~
[23:23:39] ‹Espithel› But, if you think option 3 is fruitless, then... What else?
[23:23:40] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Espithel option 1 it is!
[23:24:00] ‹Espithel› There's more than those three options if you don't like any of them aaaa
[23:24:05] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Honestly I believe Town can gain more from you being alive at least 1 more phase
[23:24:09] ‹Espithel› They're just not Espithel options
[23:24:44] ‹Linkcat› I would never wnt to go with anything that's called an Espithel option.
[23:24:56] Guest-Archangel-5bddf left.
[23:24:56] ‹Espithel› Lynching Kae is an Espithel option.
[23:25:12] ‹Linkcat› Your reasoning is bad though.
[23:25:14] • Espithel coughs.
[23:25:18] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Epithel options 1 through 19
[23:25:30] ‹Espithel› So. Lynching Kae for non-Espithel reasons.
[23:25:35] ‹Espithel› What's the argument?
[23:25:47] ‹ddevans96› it's in the thread somewhere
[23:25:56] ‹dawn_to_dusk› It's faster if he says it here
[23:26:07] shockcannon left.
[23:26:05] ‹Espithel› IT'S SEVEN IN THE MORNING AAAAAAAAAAAA
[23:26:28] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Mafia never sleeps
[23:26:30] ‹Espithel› THE FACT I CAN STILL THINK COHERENT THOUGHTS AT THIS TIME IS A FUCKING MIRACLE C'MON CUT ME SOME SLACK
[23:26:30] ‹ddevans96› fair
[23:26:31] ‹Linkcat› The way he's acted is sketch.
[23:26:32] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Except for when they do
[23:26:46] ‹Linkcat› Aren't you normally awake at this time?
[23:26:49] ‹ddevans96› I'm basically falling out of my chair in exhaustion, personally
[23:27:02] ‹ddevans96› might just need food tho
[23:27:06] ‹Espithel› ‹@Linkcat› Well, if you want to lynch him, that's pretty obvious. But what's sketchy?
[23:28:35] • Espithel crickets chirp in anticipation
[23:30:10] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Hey that's my line
[23:30:13] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Chirp
[23:31:24] ‹ddevans96› that's justa's line
[23:31:42] ‹Espithel› "Crickets are birds"
[23:34:41] ‹Linkcat› I feel like he rolled mafia his first game, was awkward in the thread like anyone would be, then asked his team how he was supposed to play and is now acting how I would expect a town kaempfer to act.
[23:34:51] ‹Linkcat› This is all just based on feeling.
[23:35:15] PlayerOa joined.
[23:35:26] ‹Espithel› 'ey Oa.
[23:35:45] ‹Linkcat› Oh, another person.
[23:36:04] ‹Linkcat› ‹@PlayerOa› Who do you want to lynch?
[23:36:22] PlayerOa left.
[23:36:25] ‹Espithel› Okay, so in order for that to hold float, you'd need proof of "awkward" Kae.
[23:36:37] ‹Espithel› Which then transitions into "normal" kae.
[23:36:56] ‹Linkcat› I don't feel like doing that.
[23:37:18] ‹Espithel› Then I don't feel like lynching Kae.
[23:37:43] ‹dawn_to_dusk› And by process of elimination from Espithel Option 3, that leaves Link as the most likely candidate
[23:39:33] ‹Espithel› I don't think Link is mafia because of that group unless there's 2 mafia in it.
[23:39:39] ‹Espithel› Which is a possibility.
[23:39:57] ‹Espithel› ...That's already been addressed - it'd be risky Evans 2019
[23:39:58] ‹Espithel› fuck me
[23:40:23] ‹Linkcat› Plot twist, you and I are the 2 mafia in that group.
[23:40:24] ‹Espithel› I'm gonna go get some tea.
[23:40:50] ‹dawn_to_dusk› How suspiciously British of you
[23:40:55] ‹Espithel› Best plot twist: All five of the people in that group are scum and Sub is a bastard mod
[23:41:06] ‹Linkcat› Lmao
[23:41:14] ‹Espithel› What? Do I need proof of me making a cup of tea now?
[23:41:20] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Who would be the best Bastard mod
[23:41:33] ‹Linkcat› Me
[23:41:39] shockcannon joined.
[23:42:39] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Obviously
[23:43:07] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Just have a train of roles like "Whenever an OU role is used, learn the name of the role and the person who used it"
[23:43:19] ‹dawn_to_dusk› "Whenever a passive role is activated, learn the name of the role and the person who owns it"
[23:43:29] ‹Linkcat› We're not getting anywhere, I think we have to wait for Europe to wake up.
[23:43:41] ‹Linkcat› The normal ones, at least.
[23:43:44] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Bastard Rules except the mod told the truth the entire time
[23:44:06] ‹shockcannon› ironically, as you continue to learn nothing, I continue to learn everything
[23:44:49] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Such as?
[23:49:37] ‹shockcannon› I can't tell you while the mafia is in chat
[23:51:28] ‹ddevans96› meme
[23:51:35] shockcannon left.
[23:52:17] shockcannon joined.
[23:52:51] ‹shockcannon› I hope that within the next 3 mafia I get mafia at least once
[23:53:11] ‹shockcannon› Being town is too boring and too easy

[dawn to dusk]

That's a disgusting amount to read so I'll try to sum it up

3 Espithel-based trains if thought going into the lynch
1. Kaempf/Calin, if one is mafia, the other probably is too
2. Lynch someone based on activity
3. Lynch someone who voted for dd. Since people were so quick to jump on the train, one of them may be likely to be mafia.

Option 1 is unlikely to work since neither of them are likely to fall into the trap of following each other

Option 2 shouldn't be followed since we have 20 pages of posts to work off

Option 3 devolved into discussion about who might be mafia if dd flips scum.


Shock says Ian is mafia and there's slight discussion about voting for him
Kaempf is also an option because Link finds him to be playing like a 1st-time-scum

In the end nothing happens
If anyone has anything else to add from the discussion, feel free