Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine

[ddevans96]

Going backwards. Long and rambling post.

Also, I agree with the fact that ddevans appears to be pushing a lynch between you two too hard, so I'm moving my vote accordingly.

I backed away from the stance that we should lynch either Espi/MW, preferring MW, and moved my stance to 'anyone but shock' - I felt that it should have been obvious, at that point, that my initial pressure on those two was left at that.

So this is 1) incorrect and 2) curiously, was not an opinion you had voiced earlier - it was kinda just tacked on to this post about MW well after after Link made his post about me.

If you were town, a possible explanation would be that you wouldn't feel comfortable voicing that opinion until someone else did, which is fair. But that would also show blind faith in Link.

If you were mafia, maybe it could be this scenario - one of the early lynch wagons was one of your mates. Then, a wagon developed on me. It would, of course, make sense for some number of mafia to join that wagon.

And yh, I too am curious about dd feeling so strongly about mw vs espi, as it seems to completely hinge on him believing mw to either be gn or mafia. Otherwise we gain no info whatsoever from espi flipping sth and as other people pointed out even if espi flips mafia it doesnt really tell much.

I have voiced that I didn't believe either Espi or MW to be mafia - I have also voiced that I don't believe MW to be GN.

And personally, I find a lot of intel in voting patterns, interactions, etc. If I'm lynched and flip town, does that not change the perspective of all my interactions with Espi and MW? The perspective of Link's post regarding me? My questioning of shock? What if I lynch mafia? All of that changes when someone is lynched - that's how you gain intel. And looking at people changing their votes, moving at specific times of the round, moving after a 'trigger' post, that's all intel too. It's usually not much early, but it all stacks up over the course of the game.

I personally find the interactions between Espi and MW extremely notable - it was the first thing to happen in the game, and it immediately struck me as weird, in some way. The move I was comfortable with, most in line with my general playstyle, was to pressure it. I created an interaction triangle you can read from for the whole game.

I hope this explains more about why I believe so strongly in the power of the lynch.

Above quote shows dd apparently is fine with lynching JCJ, instead of focussing on Espi/MW, but then again I don't see the benefit of that. It does not provide anything better than lynching shock?! It might be a bit scummy.

It might be odd for me to state this clearly, but I think it's the correct play.

I noticed something in my interactions with shock that makes me want to not lynch him this round. I will say no more. It is not in the benefit of town for me to provide details.

Now that I look at it, it does seem weird how dd emphasizes Espi and MW as the only options for lynching...

As above, the point was to provide pressure on multiple people - which I succeeded in doing - and I have since moved to expressing a different stance.

This is even more notable to me - I put the most value in a bandwagon on the second vote. One vote can be a throwaway, a lone ranger, a controversial opinion people aren't ready to bite yet, etc. Two votes means something. This was the second vote on me - and it was based on a false statement, with no deeper reasoning.

[ddevans96]

If there is any additional information in the chatlogs, please post them, because I couldn't bother reading through such an amount of text (I read the entire topic, however). I will hold my vote back in the meantime to cover burrowed players, which I think is a good idea. I am overall leaning to kill either Espi or MW though.

This was the conclusion of the last post before Link's, a post entirely about Espi and MW.

If you haven't been swayed by Link - vote for MW (or dawn/jcj if you desire), and I'll join you. For now, my vote is symbolically on my biggest mafia read, per shock's request:

MasterWalks (2) - kaempfer13, JonathanCrazyJ
dawn to dusk (2) - iancudorinmarian, mathman101
JonathanCrazyJ (2) - moehrpi, RootRanger
iancudorinmarian (1) - shockcannon
ddevans96 (4) - Linkcat, InsignificantWeeaboo, Calindu, Espithel
kaempfer13 (1) - MasterWalks
InsignificantWeeaboo (1) - ddevans96

Responding to Link's post later tonight.

[Espithel]

I backed away from the stance that we should lynch either Espi/MW, preferring MW, and moved my stance to 'anyone but shock' - I felt that it should have been obvious, at that point, that my initial pressure on those two was left at that.

So this is 1) incorrect and 2) curiously, was not an opinion you [Calindu] had voiced earlier - it was kinda just tacked on to this post about MW well after after Link made his post about me.

If you were town, a possible explanation would be that you wouldn't feel comfortable voicing that opinion until someone else did, which is fair. But that would also show blind faith in Link.

There's some stuff to unpack here. One thing I don't understand, evans, is:

"I backed away from the stance that we should lynch either Espi/MW, preferring MW, and moved my stance to 'anyone but shock' - I felt that it should have been obvious, at that point, that my initial pressure on those two was left at that."

In contrast to:

"If you haven't been swayed by Link - vote for MW (or dawn/jcj if you desire), and I'll join you. For now, my vote is symbolically on my biggest mafia read, per shock's request:"

You have moved your stance to anyone but shock, and it was negligent of people to assume that you were pushing for this when you've stated you haven't.
Yet, you want to move your vote to a choice of MW, Dawn, or JCJ. There are many other non-shock targets, such as Weeb, yet you came back to these three.

Is there any particular reason you want MW, Dawn, or JCJ lynched over any other non-shock target?
Do you want to Lynch MW, Dawn, or JCJ over lynching Weeb? If so, why?

[Espithel]

EBWOP:

You have moved your stance to anyone but shock, and it was negligent of people to assume that you were pushing for this when you've stated you haven't. you've stopped.

[ddevans96]

You have moved your stance to anyone but shock, and it was negligent of people to assume that you were pushing for this when you've stated you haven't.
Yet, you want to move your vote to a choice of MW, Dawn, or JCJ. There are many other non-shock targets, such as Weeb, yet you came back to these three.

Is there any particular reason you want MW, Dawn, or JCJ lynched over any other non-shock target?
Do you want to Lynch MW, Dawn, or JCJ over lynching Weeb? If so, why?

I know I am town. I am the only person I know is town. Therefore, from my perspective, it is in town's best interest for me to live. And this is true with every town player.

The best way for me to stay alive, currently, is to stack my vote with Ginyu's onto one of the three people who currently have 2 votes, and put them to 4 - the same as my total. The goal isn't to force a tie, I don't want that, I maintain that doesn't help us, and there's still plenty of time left for things to develop and break the tie. But it prevents the lynch from running away, and making (what I know is) the wrong decision without pushback.

[MasterWalks]

I have voiced that I didn't believe either Espi or MW to be mafia - I have also voiced that I don't believe MW to be GN.

If you haven't been swayed by Link - vote for MW (or dawn/jcj if you desire), and I'll join you. For now, my vote is symbolically on my biggest mafia read, per shock's request:

So you believe I may be mafia now? Or are you trying to do an information lynch? Or am I missing something?

[ddevans96]

My priority is now survival - see my response to Espi. Information is the secondary goal.

[Espithel]

Alright.

MasterWalks (2) - kaempfer13, JonathanCrazyJ
dawn to dusk (2) - iancudorinmarian, mathman101
JonathanCrazyJ (2) - moehrpi, RootRanger
iancudorinmarian (1) - shockcannon
ddevans96 (3) - Linkcat, InsignificantWeeaboo, Calindu
kaempfer13 (1) - MasterWalks
InsignificantWeeaboo (1) - ddevans96

I'll remove my vote for now to prevent a runaway. Discussion is always good, but we need to reach a consensus shortly. The day's starting to end.

Personally, I'd take the opposite stance regarding survival - it's better to just keel over and die instead of trying to self-preserve, because it removes the ability for mafia to use self-preservation as a defence. That only works if every other town follows suit, though, which... Yeah, no.

You didn't answer the second part of my question, though: Would you prefer to lynch JCJ, Dawn, or MW over Weeb?

[ddevans96]

Personally, I'd take the opposite stance regarding survival - it's better to just keel over and die instead of trying to self-preserve, because it removes the ability for mafia to use self-preservation as a defence. That only works if every other town follows suit, though, which... Yeah, no.

Every player should always self-defend, unless they gain something substantial from death. Otherwise discussion is throttled, and most lynches would just be one of the early wagons. It's very easy for mafia to manipulate that kind of passive town play.

You didn't answer the second part of my question, though: Would you prefer to lynch JCJ, Dawn, or MW over Weeb?

If I could convince everyone that we should make a specific lynch this round, I would pick IW.

[Calindu]

Also, I agree with the fact that ddevans appears to be pushing a lynch between you two too hard, so I'm moving my vote accordingly.

I backed away from the stance that we should lynch either Espi/MW, preferring MW, and moved my stance to 'anyone but shock' - I felt that it should have been obvious, at that point, that my initial pressure on those two was left at that.

So this is 1) incorrect and 2) curiously, was not an opinion you had voiced earlier - it was kinda just tacked on to this post about MW well after after Link made his post about me.

If you were town, a possible explanation would be that you wouldn't feel comfortable voicing that opinion until someone else did, which is fair. But that would also show blind faith in Link.

It's just something that didn't cross my mind until it was posted by Linkcat, and I also had to think about it. I attached it at the end of the post because I didn't find any reason to create another one.

If you were mafia, maybe it could be this scenario - one of the early lynch wagons was one of your mates. Then, a wagon developed on me. It would, of course, make sense for some number of mafia to join that wagon.

There were 3 other places I could place a third vote on when I moved my vote from shock to you, and there were plenty of opportunities before that to wagon on someone else. Yet, I only joined this one.

[shockcannon]

@kaempfer13 I really don't think you're mafia. If you are I might be throwing for town but I'm going to take a gamble. I'm going to give you something that I hope you have the brains for.
@MasterWalks There's a potential chance you also can crack this, but I also don't believe you are mafia.


A long time ago there was a little mix up and error made when you attempted to give me weekly tournament winner codes. I want you to try and think of the reason why this mistake occurred. Simplify the cause of this error to a single word that makes the most sense if you could only use one word. That word should loosely be able to connect to one of the 12 elements. If you think it connects to multiple pick the more appropriate one.

If you think you know the answer, post that element icon along with 2 other random element icons (if previously you thought there were two possible elements that could relate to the word, do NOT include the weaker connected element in your 3 element icon answer).

If you answer this correctly I'm going to use that word as a key for a cipher in which I share some info with you.

Moderator Comment

Any attempt to bypass the PM restriction and send information to a specific player is against the spirit of the rules and will be treated as breaking rule 9 of the Game Rules. I went to go cite the rule that says codes and ciphers are banned, but apparently I forgot to actually put it in the rules all this time.

[ddevans96]

There were 3 other places I could place a third vote on when I moved my vote from shock to you, and there were plenty of opportunities before that to wagon on someone else. Yet, I only joined this one.

Yep - MW, who had an established wagon you could have joined at any time, and dawn/JCJ, who had pretty much no serious threat to them - the people voting them hadn't voiced any major reasoning or push, and there were other targets being more heavily discussed.

Truth be told, the timing of second vote vs third vote in this context doesn't really matter all that much - a little bit, but the nature of the votes is the main distinguishing factor between you and IW that makes me more suspicious of him.