Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine

[iancudorinmarian]

The odds of you being GN are the same 1-in-19 as they are for anyone else.

The odds of MW being GN are a lot higher because he made a fairly bold claim of someone being scummy.

That's not how probabilities work, Linkcat. If the odds of MW being GN are higher than 1/19, the the odds of everyone else being GN are lower than 1/19.

Linkcat is scum confirmed, trying to sway us by pulling numbers out of his ass.

[MasterWalks]

Espithel (1) - ddevans96
MasterWalks (2) - kaempfer13, JonathanCrazyJ
dawn to dusk (2) - iancudorinmarian, mathman101
JonathanCrazyJ (2) - moehrpi, RootRanger
shockcannon (2) - Calindu, Espithel
iancudorinmarian (1) - shockcannon
ddevans96 (3) - Linkcat, InsignificantWeeaboo, MasterWalks

I change my vote due to Links experience, but Espi, dont think you are off yet.

I BEG that someone roleblock Espi. Please.

[kaempfer13]

It is true that in games that I am confident in my skills at, I usually have a lot more laidback playstyle. TBH I've come to realize that lynching people on the base of their actions not helping town, when the reason seems to be incompetence or a plain missunderstanding is actually a mistake. The actual reason for that was not immediately intuitive to me though and I only realized today why not only the people I am directly targeting but also people who are definitely more experienced than me disagreed with me.
Assuming every towny lynched people who deviate from the gameplan for reasons that are perfectly in line with their character (and thus more likely than not town if thats the only lead), mafia will never have to bother much with lynches and fit right in with no information gained for us during the day phase.

I will act not so rash in the future anymore and also try to refrain a bit more from discussion that doesnt help finding leads, even if it means having to accept that some of our allies either actively choose (for the fun factor or due to thinking they know better) to play suboptimally. After all it too seems that I aint quite got the hang of this.

So for now I will wait for more information to make a move. Which ironically means my vote on mw remains for a while even though I admitted its likely a mistake

As for why I quite strongly believe espi to be town or at least mws claim to be completely baseless, even though he clearly feels strongly about it: Similiar to DC and somewhat shock (although espi does strike me as better mafia player than either) simply has an irritating personality that most of us got used to, but mw clearly hasnt. Everything espi said (even if some of it is controversial) seems perfectly sound from townperspective to me and he definitely helps furthering discussion (towns primary weapon!) and he has experience (at least by virtue of sheer number of games played). If he is town, which -statistically speaking- he is, I would not want to lose him.

And yh, I too am curious about dd feeling so strongly about mw vs espi, as it seems to completely hinge on him believing mw to either be gn or mafia. Otherwise we gain no info whatsoever from espi flipping sth and as other people pointed out even if espi flips mafia it doesnt really tell much.

[MasterWalks]

Espithel (1) - ddevans96
MasterWalks (2) - kaempfer13, JonathanCrazyJ
dawn to dusk (2) - iancudorinmarian, mathman101
JonathanCrazyJ (2) - moehrpi, RootRanger
shockcannon (2) - Calindu, Espithel
iancudorinmarian (1) - shockcannon
ddevans96 (2) - Linkcat, InsignificantWeeaboo,
kaempfer13(1) - MasterWalks

You have defended Espi as town more than anyone else. Everyone else just thinks if Espi is mafia, lynching him gains no info. I agree kinda. But you seem to have so much confidence that he is. With PM's banned and so little info, how are you so sure? I can see what Linkcat is saying now.
My hypothesis? You are mafia and you are defending another mafia. Other than that, you have role checked him and found he has an important role. If it's the latter, than i will change my vote again.

[Calindu]

I'll attempt to make sense of your post, because I'm having a hard time really.

You have defended Espi as town more than anyone else.

I believe kaempfer defended Espithel because as he said, the accusations appear to be baseless. I believe the same thing, You are probably giving too much thought to little things, because hardly any discussion occurred before you wanted that lynch.

Everyone else just thinks if Espi is mafia

I hardly believe everyone else thinks Espithel is mafia.

lynching him gains no info. I agree kinda.

I agree on this, unless Espithel is mafia, lynching him still leaves a big question mark on top of your head. The same can be said about lynching you.

But you seem to have so much confidence that he is. With PM's banned and so little info, how are you so sure?

Now you are contradicting yourself, one second ago kaempfer was defending Espithel, now he believe he's mafia?

I can see what Linkcat is saying now.

I don't really get what part of Linkcat's post you are referring to.

Also, I agree with the fact that ddevans appears to be pushing a lynch between you two too hard, so I'm moving my vote accordingly.

Espithel (1) - ddevans96
MasterWalks (2) - kaempfer13, JonathanCrazyJ
dawn to dusk (2) - iancudorinmarian, mathman101
JonathanCrazyJ (2) - moehrpi, RootRanger
shockcannon (1) - Espithel
iancudorinmarian (1) - shockcannon
ddevans96 (3) - Linkcat, InsignificantWeeaboo, Calindu
kaempfer13(1) - MasterWalks

[MasterWalks]

I'll attempt to make sense of your post, because I'm having a hard time really.

You have defended Espi as town more than anyone else.

I believe kaempfer defended Espithel because as he said, the accusations appear to be baseless. I believe the same thing, You are probably giving too much thought to little things, because hardly any discussion occurred before you wanted that lynch.

Everyone else just thinks if Espi is mafia

I hardly believe everyone else thinks Espithel is mafia.

This was totally taken out of context wtf

lynching him gains no info. I agree kinda.

I agree on this, unless Espithel is mafia, lynching him still leaves a big question mark on top of your head. The same can be said about lynching you.

But you seem to have so much confidence that he is. With PM's banned and so little info, how are you so sure?

Now you are contradicting yourself, one second ago kaempfer was defending Espithel, now he believe he's mafia?

Um, wat? This what hes doing as a mafia, Of course hes going to defend him as a town if they are both mafia. I reread my post and its written correctly.

I can see what Linkcat is saying now.

I don't really get what part of Linkcat's post you are referring to.

About kaempfer acting strange.

Also, I agree with the fact that ddevans appears to be pushing a lynch between you two too hard, so I'm moving my vote accordingly.

Espithel (1) - ddevans96
MasterWalks (2) - kaempfer13, JonathanCrazyJ
dawn to dusk (2) - iancudorinmarian, mathman101
JonathanCrazyJ (2) - moehrpi, RootRanger
shockcannon (1) - Espithel
iancudorinmarian (1) - shockcannon
ddevans96 (3) - Linkcat, InsignificantWeeaboo, Calindu
kaempfer13(1) - MasterWalks

(My color for text means nothing. Pink just stands out and is fairly neutral)

[Espithel]

Espithel (1) - ddevans96
MasterWalks (2) - kaempfer13, JonathanCrazyJ
dawn to dusk (2) - iancudorinmarian, mathman101
JonathanCrazyJ (2) - moehrpi, RootRanger
shockcannon (1) - Calindu
iancudorinmarian (1) - shockcannon
ddevans96 (4) - Linkcat, InsignificantWeeaboo, Calindu, Espithel
Kaempfer13 (1) - MasterWalks

I'm not persuaded he's scum, but he's a much better lynch than everyone else here. This vote is subject to change depending on how evans responds. I don't like lynching people who start the conversation on a day - that's not something you want to punish - but it is the best option of the group.

My hypothesis? You [Kaempf] are mafia and you are defending another mafia [Espithel]. Other than that, you have role checked him and found he has an important role. If it's the latter, than i will change my vote again.

[JonathanCrazyJ]

I'm still on MW. Sadly not had time to fully keep up but every time he talks i want him dead. *shrug*

The reason why lynching 'bad' town is bad is that when people play badly it sparks conversation. It sparks drama. Drama makes people make mistakes in their game. I kinda love the way shock and espi play.

(not related to the game, i really like the makeup of this mafia. we have new players, experienced players, logical ones, chaotic ones. People thinking differently to you is always a good thing. Sparks conversation.

[Espithel]

EBWOP:

A chat log. Calindu did a derp.

Spoiler for Hidden:

[20:50:01] ‹AveragePotato› The latest forum post is Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine from Calindu in Forum Games. Posted like a peacock.
[20:56:59] ‹Espithel› You missed an important "if" there, Cal.
[20:57:34] ‹Calindu› ‹@Espithel› Where exactly?
[20:57:41] ‹Calindu› I might have worded it poorly

[20:58:01] ‹AveragePotato› The latest forum post is Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine from MasterWalks in Forum Games. It's okay, I guess.

[20:58:15] ‹MasterWalks› I colored it red
[20:58:29] ‹Calindu› I swear it didn't have if when I first read it
[20:58:56] ‹Calindu› There's no way I missed that, because that's what prompted me to post too
[20:59:01] ‹vagman13› when in doubt,always lynch ian  :whistling:
[20:59:04] ‹MasterWalks› I didnt edit it lol
[20:59:10] ‹Calindu› Ah, I'm just blind
[20:59:19] ‹Calindu› I even have it in my post
[20:59:21] ‹PlayerOa› Hey all

[20:59:26] ‹Espithel› Yeah, that could've been structured better on walks end. His argument is essentially "People think I'm townish, and Kaempf is defending me well and beyond what is necessary."
[20:59:48] ‹Espithel› Do correct me if I'm wrong, Walks. Misrepresentation is a crime.
[21:00:26] ‹Calindu› Hey Oa
[21:01:05] ‹Calindu› Yeah, I believe with the if there it makes more sense, but all my other points still stand
[21:01:06] ‹MasterWalks› ‹@Espithel› probably could be structured better but what am i misrepresenting?
[21:01:42] ‹Espithel› You're not misrepresenting anything. I'm telling you to correct me if I just misrepresented you.
[21:02:20] ‹MasterWalks› ‹@Espithel› Oh yea you are correct

[kaempfer13]

I dont really defend espi more than I feel you are unjustifiedly pushing for lynching him; i just want te balance that out, with you feeling so strongly about espi you have people thinking you have some kinda superpowered role; there is only 1 role you could have that would make you this sure and if you did you would have done well to hide it better. I mostly assume you don't actually have that and try to counterbalance your overeaction, thats all. You cling onto small things and read way too much into them. granted right now all we have is small things, but please focus. As for my vote resting on you out of apathy, let me explain a bit further; I do believe that voting for a lynch every day is important as even if you get the wrong person votes tell a story (an unreliable narrator to be sure and 1 round is certainly not enough to get anything final) (additionally if you just wait for the nightkills to happen there is no chance of winning, although I guess its possible to flirt with the thought of hoping for secondaries to unearth important things, but that happens either way).
Right now votes are relatively evenly split, so if we were all to gang up on one person, the exact scenario i described above as to why my initial tactic was wrong occurs and we dont learn anything. We need to make sure someone does get lynched, but we shouldnt pin one person from the start, otherwise we just lynch a towny (most of the time) without mafia revealing anything. So expect me to move my vote towards the end of the day, just not now.

[ddevans96]

I can't help but notice how much of what I've said has been misconstrued.

Espithel (1) - ddevans96
MasterWalks (2) - kaempfer13, JonathanCrazyJ
dawn to dusk (2) - iancudorinmarian, mathman101
JonathanCrazyJ (2) - moehrpi, RootRanger
shockcannon (1) - Calindu
iancudorinmarian (1) - shockcannon
kaempfer13 (1) - MasterWalks

Two mafia in this group of voters.

ddevans96 (4) - Linkcat, InsignificantWeeaboo, Calindu, Espithel

Two mafia in this group of voters.

Proper post later, I have housework to take care of.

[Espithel]

Hang on.

Espithel (1) - ddevans96
MasterWalks (2) - kaempfer13, JonathanCrazyJ
dawn to dusk (2) - iancudorinmarian, mathman101
JonathanCrazyJ (2) - moehrpi, RootRanger
iancudorinmarian (1) - shockcannon
ddevans96 (4) - Linkcat, InsignificantWeeaboo, Calindu, Espithel
Kaempfer13 (1) - MasterWalks

Removed Calindu appearing twice.
I'll take the blame for that.