Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine

[immortal feud]

glad i died, covered up my mistake of forgetting to send in night actions.
gl town

[ddevans96]

*sigh*

I was going to post the following:


I'm inclined to think the following exchange was feud softclaiming extra Nymph and showing an investigation of Cal as mafia:

[15:18:50] ‹immortal_feud› dd how much should i reveal when answering your question
[15:18:58] ‹immortal_feud› bbs
[15:22:17] ‹ddevans96› don't claim role
[15:24:26] ‹ddevans96› answer the question to the best of your ability, without actually giving anything away
[15:25:15] ‹ddevans96› if that makes sense
[15:25:25] ‹ddevans96› there's some nuance, it's hard to explain exactly what I would do

What about that situation leads you to vote on Cal?

simply i caught a firefly and dont know what about that piece of information justifies lynching me

It is very possible that feud could actually just be what we've been calling 'bad town', so I'm opening to not immediately lynching Cal (I would be comfortable with any lynch but Root), but this is the direction I'm advocating for.


But feud's death post kinda just dumps on that.

InsignificantWeeaboo (1) - ddevans96

The game has been compromised five or six times and I'm beyond stressed because of it, I'm just gonna put my vote on IW because he was my first scumread and because we've established an information web regarding him, and not talk a lot lot more right now.

[ddevans96]

To be clear - lynch whoever you want, as long as it's not Root. I probably won't try to convince people otherwise.

[Mobian]

Out of Root or Ginyu, ONE of them is a mafia Psion. We should take efforts to determine which one can't be trusted. Dd, I would like to request you hit me with immaterial so I can buff trusted townies.

[RootRanger]

So, someone is the Anubis (or maybe fate egg?) who targeted Linkcat. What we know is

1.) ddevans claimed Anubis but said he did not target anyone
2.) mathman, Ginyu, and I have yet to role reveal
3.) Linkcat was immaterialized in Night 2 (I think?), meaning the Anubis plausibly self-targeted on Night 0
4.) IW's target failed on Ginyu

So, can anyone confirm or deny whether ddevans is immaterial? Same goes for mathman and Ginyu.

Initially I thought that ddevans was the Anubis who targeted Linkcat (and, by extension, likely a fellow mafia). This was the simplest explanation - he made an honest roleclaim early in the game when he was unsure if there were any Psions in the game, but lied about never targeting Linkcat to avoid drawing suspicion.

Now, I'm less sure, with IW's target on Ginyu failing. It could be shock, or it could be that Ginyu was an Anubis who self-targeted. It could be a second mind flayer, but with so few roles unrevealed, I'm skeptical that one exists.

The tricky part is that IW could be a mafia lying to throw us off. Part of me wants to lynch IW - if he turns up civ, at least we know he was telling the truth. But then the mafia Anubis could still be between ddevans/Ginyu, or it could be that IW was roleblocked by shock and math is the Anubis.

At the very least, I'd like to know who shock targeted last night. If he targeted IW, this clears things up a little bit.

We could try targeting ddevans+Ginyu+mathman tonight with the various roles we have, and see what fails and what succeeds. But, in the meantime, we still need a lynch for today.

I still support the shock lynch. Seeing Linkcat and Espithel turn mafia only reinforces my conviction. We saw on Day 1 that Linkcat diverted focus from Espithel. He's done similarly with shock, claiming he's an almost guaranteed civ, pushing votes away from him. And when shock fakeclaimed GN, it put the civs at serious risk of having the real GN counterclaim, thus preemptively revealing their role. I really can't reiterate this enough. The last mafia may still be ddevans, but it could be Ginyu as well. But we can get more info on the immaterial situation tonight, so I'd rather delay that decision if possible. Yes, I'm "tunneling" shock, but that's because he's the most likely mafia based on solid reasoning.

InsignificantWeeaboo (1) - ddevans96
shockcannon (1) - RootRanger

[shockcannon]

I haven’t used my ability last 2 nights. There is 100% a second mind flayer.

InsignificantWeeaboo (2) - ddevans96, shockcannon
shockcannon (1) - RootRanger

[mathman101]

InsignificantWeeaboo (2) - ddevans96, shockcannon
shockcannon (1) - RootRanger
ddevans96 (1) - mathman101


I'm sorry, but I still feel like dd is mafia, and that he and link were playing the good cop / bad cop routine on us.

[ddevans96]

You should elaborate on what you mean by 'good cop / bad cop', because I don't see that at all.

[ddevans96]

Like...'good cop / bad cop' is two people actively working together and using different methods to interrogate someone. Are you just talking about bussing, or are you referring to something that Link and I were on the same page about at some point?

[Calindu]

I'm inclined to think the following exchange was feud softclaiming extra Nymph and showing an investigation of Cal as mafia:

Well, I believe it's pretty safe to assume feud targeted MW and got the GN N3, so the only night he could have investigated is N4, but he made it pretty clear he tried to target Root during N4.
There is the possibility that feud managed to get two investigations of, but that would require him targeting MW as early as N1, which is really hard to believe.

To be clear - lynch whoever you want, as long as it's not Root. I probably won't try to convince people otherwise.

Why specifically not Root? Feud's ability failing on Root, IW's claim that he targeted me, and shock's claim that he got targeted by the mind flayer 2 nights in a row makes me think that there is a good chance that Root is immaterial, despite claiming otherwise, and mafia.

Also, I don't like the lynch of IW, I think he's just making a bunch of mistakes, and we haven't lynched for that.

I believe we should just go for a lynch on Ginyu, as IW's ability failed on him, but I am also open to a lynch on mathman.

[shockcannon]

There’s 6 town 2 mafia right now. Can we all roleclaim now? We really have nothing to lose by roleclaiming and saying what we did. There’s only 3 people unclaimed. Either your role is useless or mafia is going to kill you next night phase.

[ddevans96]

There is the possibility that feud managed to get two investigations of, but that would require him targeting MW as early as N1, which is really hard to believe.

I don't think it's that unlikely. Multiple people believed MW was GN based on his hard read on Espi Day 1. Maybe he was paying closer attention than he let on.

Why specifically not Root? Feud's ability failing on Root, IW's claim that he targeted me, and shock's claim that he got targeted by the mind flayer 2 nights in a row makes me think that there is a good chance that Root is immaterial, despite claiming otherwise, and mafia.

Root is the only true town read I have the moment (some, including you, at neutral+, but no others at town), and the game situation (as you have outlined) is currently one that if I'm wrong and he's mafia, we will know sooner rather than later, with plenty of time to spare. He would have no room for error. As such, I would rather consider lynching him next round and look at other options this round.

Also, I don't like the lynch of IW, I think he's just making a bunch of mistakes, and we haven't lynched for that.

We have exactly one lynch that wasn't 'orchestrated' or a confirmed mafia, and they flipped mafia. We're 1-for-1 on lynching people based off their play.

I believe we should just go for a lynch on Ginyu, as IW's ability failed on him, but I am also open to a lynch on mathman.

I would prefer to lynch Ginyu over math, as well. I lean more town for math currently, because I highly doubt mafia would continue pushing a lynch on me at this stage of the game - me flipping town would look very bad for them.