Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine

[Calindu]

i hope i understand how your ability works, when did you send the firefly to me?

Last night.

[immortal feud]

hmm indeed.
last person that voted on me and when asked about it said it was to pressure me for information was mafia, i wonder if the same is happening again.

[Calindu]

hmm indeed.
last person that voted on me and when asked about it said it was to pressure me for information was mafia, i wonder if the same is happening again.

So you are free to be useless all damn game just because someone that questioned you earlier turned out to be mafia? Sorry, but this is not how the game is played. If everyone is defensive and uses stupid excuses like this one, we'll never actually reach any conclusion and we'll just slowly lose. Like I said, I just wanted some info, something we can use, out of you, and you refusing to do the bare minimum makes no sense. Because of this, I actually changed my stance, I believe lynching you might not be the worst thing ever. At least Linkcat is still providing useful information to the town, even if he might be mafia.

[immortal feud]

i dont have any information beyond that i caught a firefly last night other than my role so im not sure what i can do

[RootRanger]

The push on Linkcat is nothing new, I've considered him mafia as have many other players. I think Calindu and immortal feud are both civ, and I think it'd be best for us to all vote together before mafia tries to sway the vote towards a civ or end up with no lynch at all.

@Calindu - I see you as the most trusted civ player, and I want to vote with you, but I think Linkcat is way more likely mafia than immortal feud. You especially should recognize this, being the other FFQ. Mafia has been killing fairly powerful civ roles each night - I think they have an information secondary role, and if it's not you, it's likely Linkcat. The revelation that Espithel was mafia only justifies my suspicion of Linkcat, since he diverted the vote from Espi on Day 1. How likely do you consider it that Linkcat is civ?

Linkcat (4) - Mobian, mathman101, ddevans96, RootRanger
ddevans96 (1) - Linkcat
immortal feud (1) - Calindu
Calindu (1) - immortal feud
InsignificantWeeaboo (1) - shockcannon

[RootRanger]

@Linkcat - it's fairly likely you'll be lynched today, considering how the voting is going and the general suspicion on you. If we're wrong, and you're civ, who were your targets and what information did you get?

The moehrpi lynch still bugs me, since he died before getting the chance to dump his info. Linkcat likely has even more info, and while I think it's fairly likely he's mafia, we could be wrong, and I'd like to at least hear what he's learned this game.

[shockcannon]

Ok, so what’s up with Insig and Ginyu. These two aren’t voting and no one gives a crap about them right now. Are they bad and inactive town that mafia is ignoring? If that’s the case then we’re missing out on two town votes. That puts it at 5 town votes and 3 mafia votes. Something tells me 4/5 town are NOT currently voting on Linkcat. I just find that highly unlikely if both Insig and Ginyu are town. With 3/8 votes I feel like mafia is still in a position to make things work in their favor. So I’m looking at this right now thinking that either Linkcat is town, or Insig/Ginyu is one or both of the mafia.


Second, Ginyu is claiming to cover for graboid but everyone left alive has already voted multiple times. Ginyu is currently covering for exactly 0 people. Which means mafia are just ignore him if he’s graboid since he’s not voting anyways. Mafia was targeting inactives earlier and they never hit a graboid or killed Ginyu. Maybe they used secondary roles to find graboid? Who knows but a little suspicious. Lot of earlier claims of people town reading Ginyu. Why the heck is anyone town reading Ginyu. He’s gone completely under the radar and hasn’t voted in what were several crucial and close votes. And what happened to insig? I know he’s online fairly often so it’s not like he’s been unable to vote or offer input. Ever since day 2 he just dropped off everyone’s radar. What’s going on here?

Day 3 we lynched moehrpi. I was a prime target because I was hurting town. Would mafia vote me up? Probably not, keeping me around helped them at them while I was being stupid. Town already had tons of votes in me, no need to add on. Then almost as a gift, a moehrpi vote starts. Several confirmed townies were in on that vote because they thought I was town. Did mafia orchestrate that? Perhaps. Could of been Linkcat. But they have no need or pressure to support either vote. Moehrpi or shock was a win win. Both would kill town, both would fail to reveal any info (obviously if you think I’m mafia, me flipping mafia would reveal info so I acknowledge that). Several people sat out of the vote completely that day. I think at least 1 maybe 2 mafia are just sitting back and chilling.

I see the reasons for Linkcat as mafia. I still think Linkcat and ddevans both being town is an option though. I’m not going to try to start a last minute vote on someone who won’t be there to talk at deadline, but honestly I don’t think that’s a good excuse this late in  the game. Everyone should be fair game, and if Linkcat flips town I really think we need to be pushing for an Insig/Ginyu lynch ASAP. Don’t pull the idiot move of lynching ddevans if Linkcat flips town.

[shockcannon]

Sorry I wrote the wrong thing at the end of my last post. If Linkcat flips mafia I think Ginyu/Insig is also at least one other mafia. Because if Linkcat is mafia I think it’s highly unlikely for those two to have been town and the other 4/5 townies to all get Linkcat without mafia “orchestrating.” And mafia has no reason to bus right now. They’re extremely close to winning and every mafia lynch really hurts that chance.


Now, if Linkcat flips town I think it’s more likely for Insig/Ginyu to also be town but I don’t think they’re cleared either. Could still be mafia sitting back and laughing while town just votes each other and never suspects the quiet ones. I realize the mistake in lynching moehrpi, but people who are relatively quiet need to be pressured otherwise we get situations like this where we only suspect and vote up active players, ignoring the potential for mafia to feign inactivity.

[Linkcat]

@Linkcat - it's fairly likely you'll be lynched today, considering how the voting is going and the general suspicion on you. If we're wrong, and you're civ, who were your targets and what information did you get?

My firefly reported that RootRanger is a noob. Not sure what that means, I'm not really familiar with all the abilities.

[Calindu]

@Calindu - I see you as the most trusted civ player, and I want to vote with you, but I think Linkcat is way more likely mafia than immortal feud. You especially should recognize this, being the other FFQ. Mafia has been killing fairly powerful civ roles each night - I think they have an information secondary role, and if it's not you, it's likely Linkcat. The revelation that Espithel was mafia only justifies my suspicion of Linkcat, since he diverted the vote from Espi on Day 1. How likely do you consider it that Linkcat is civ?

Mafia NKed a Seraph, 2 Otyughs and the Golden Nymph so far. They killed the second Otyugh and the Golden Nymph because they were confirmed, so I doubt mafia has been killing the more powerful roles. Now if we consider which fireflies have been caught and what Linkcat claimed, I believe we know most of his targets, as someone lying about catching a firefly makes little sense:

N0: dd
N1: ian
N2: ? (Don't know or don't remember)
N3: kaempfer
N4: RootRanger

Now not knowing the N2 target doesn't matter, since the N3 and N4 NKs have been on the confirmed civvies.

I still believe Linkcat is likely to be mafia, but it's not because of his role, it's because of how he diverted the vote from Espithel and, most importantly, his interaction with dd, making me believe one of them is mafia. Now I did say that I can always switch my vote on Linkcat if needed, and I still intend to do this if I see mafia is trying to change the vote late into the phase, but there is no way to win if half of the remaining players are terribly AFK or outright refuse to do anything but vote 'for the memes'. That's why my vote is on feud atm, was hoping me might start playing, but instead he found a dumb reason for an OMGUS vote and that was it.

[Calindu]

This chatlog happened last night, but has not been posted, so I'm posting it now.

[2019-06-09 00:42:51] ddevans96: ‹@Calindu› what do you think is the most likely mafia team?
[2019-06-09 00:50:07] Calindu: ‹@ddevans96› Playing some OW with a friend, will comment on it later

[2019-06-09 01:31:29] Calindu: ‹@ddevans96› Ok, so I feel like it's Linkcat/you, shock, feud/IW
[2019-06-09 01:31:40] Calindu: Though I'm really not sure about the third one

[Calindu]

Spoiler for Short chatlog:

[18:03:40] ‹shockcannon› Mobian, Calindu, Insig, ddevans
[18:04:07] ‹InsignificantWeeaboo› ?
[18:04:33] ‹Calindu› ‹@shockcannon› Yes
[18:14:15] ‹shockcannon› Are we sure about linkcat?
[18:14:32] ‹shockcannon› I know you think I’m mafia but consider my posts
[18:14:48] ‹shockcannon› I’m okay with linkcat lynch as long as we are aware of the situation and pissibilities
[18:15:05] ‹Calindu› I read your posts, you have actually been helpful this phhase
[18:15:15] ‹Calindu› I don't know, really, I believe he's the best bet
[18:15:33] ‹Calindu› That's why I wanted to see the others at least try to be useful
[18:16:01] ‹ddevans96› Yeah, regardless of what Link flips, we have a lot to consider
[18:20:14] ‹ddevans96› log this btw
[18:21:41] ‹shockcannon› I feel like insig flip tells us a lot as well but this is fine
[18:22:14] ‹shockcannon› I’m pretty sold though that if link flips mafia one or both of insig and Ginyu are also mafia
[18:24:01] ‹shockcannon› Also root kinda bothers me
[18:24:26] ‹shockcannon› I know he tunneled me because of previous mistakes, but I think he’s been quite unhelpful to town and continues to be unhelpful
[18:24:49] ‹Calindu› I found his post this round quite strange tbh
[18:24:57] ‹shockcannon› I think he’s town but I don’t want to disregard any possibility that he’s Mafia and playing us hard
[18:25:14] ‹Calindu› Since mafia didn't kill any power role because they found it with a secondary role
[18:26:13] ‹shockcannon› Yeah idk what’s up with root
[18:26:30] ‹shockcannon› He also kind of stopped going after me this round and just joined with link
[18:26:49] ‹shockcannon› I know he thinks link is also mafia but still strange as he’s been pushing me as number 1 priority for so ling
[18:26:54] ‹Calindu› I just believe he's not paying full attention tbh
[18:27:04] ‹shockcannon› That’s likely
[18:27:36] ‹shockcannon› Also can you post chat log?
[18:27:51] ‹Calindu› Yeah, will do