Start of Day 2
Is this a bus?
Espi has always been a loose cannon. Knowing now that he's mafia, I put exactly zero value into that post - maybe it could be a very weak bus, but it's just as likely to be him trying to look town by grilling a low-activity player, which is generally a pro-town move.
[responding to second vote in separate post later]
Start of Day 3
Let's pretend Calindu doesn't have proof that my GN claim was wrong. Does town go through with this lynch? Or does town continue to not trust me. What does mafia think will happen? Espithel voted on Linkcat before Calindu revealed. I'm not sure what that tells us but I think it's quite interesting. He's clearly playing the support shockcannon move, but does that mean Linkcat is town? Espithel claims he knew GN was MW by this point in time. That means he knows I'm lying. If Linkcat is mafia, does Espithel bus him? I don't know if that play makes sense. Maybe ddevans is mafia and Espithel and ddevans both go in hoping no one has info that I'm not actually GN. But Calindu already revealed by this point. ddevans puts his vote on claiming that he wasn't the anubis who protected Linkcat. This means ddevans at this point assumes Calindu AND Linkcat are lying. Bold assumption. But if ddevans was mafia, he would know whether or not Linkcat and Calindu were town. Would he risk exposing himself but continuing to vote Linkcat? Is ddevans just playing the aggressive mafia who is amazed he's still alive and figures why not keep causing chaos if town never lynches me? I don't think this makes sense either.
Personally, I think voting snapshot shows that BOTH Linkcat and ddevans are town.
I don't know how much value I put into this voting snapshot. It was very early in the phase, but you do bring up some interesting scenarios, and I would say it's likely that at least one is in play. To address some things:
-I think Link would have been our primary lynch target, but because of how lynches have been diverted, there is no guarantee he would have been our final lynch.
-I also believed MW was the real GN. I called MW 'shock lite' in a rant about him - this was not an insult about his playstyle, it was referencing the GN situation. I previously address this breadcrumb in chat, but not in-thread yet.
-I do think a bus play would make sense there. It'd be a weak bus, again because of where it was at in the phase, but it could be something. It doesn't move the needle on how I'm reading Link, regardless.
-I don't necessarily think either Cal or Link was lying. I think it's most likely there's a second Anubis who targeted Link, most likely a mafia buddy. That's why I voted Link - because I felt that was the scenario and he wanted to pass off the Anubis target to me, which makes the most sense if he's mafia.
Middle of Day 3
Not much analysis here, but I think this voting snapshot is still quite interesting. I have some opinions about what we can gain from this but I'll save them for now. The above 3 are more important. This is only icing on the cake.
I actually think this is the most interesting voting setup of the four you've highlighted. I'd be curious to hear your thoughts on it.
Poll
