Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine

[Calindu]

You defend the one person i actually believe is mafia and you do it over and over

Because you have no actual evidence supporting it, you started with 'Espithel is mafia' because of him asking about a rule and kept going at it, nothing influenced your stand a little bit, You didn't even look at recent posts to support your claim.

Over all, you have absolutely pounded and criticized every single thing i have done/said. You question me after everything. This is fine BUT you have seemed pretty sure i am town. Im even ranked higher than espi in your little town reads. Yet, in the second quote you said you are more inclined to lynch me rather than espi BUT then you say you are willing to swap your vote to espi (grated you did say if there is more info that arises). You are full of contradictions and non-vote pressuring. I get questioning someone to get a read on them, but when you already have a read, and a pretty sure one, you still do it. If i was to guess, you want role claims. You are the Brain of Mafia because your task is to narrow down roles until GN appears. Just my guess.

Look at the dates of the two posts you used, the first one was made D1. How the hell is that still relevant to my read list that I can't put you higher than Espithel? The fact that you are town became apparent over time really. How could you have a hard read at the start of D1?
I was also against many of the roleclaims that happened, the only roleclaim I took a part in forcing was dd, because he would most likely get lynched otherwise. I even had to roleclaim myself because someone else fake roleclaimed.

You are pissed that I question what I do, but you proved in this post that your reasoning is flawed and you try and force a read where you can't make one. Me not trusting your reasoning has nothing to do with my read on you.

[Calindu]

EBWOP: Question what you do*

[moehrpi]

Well, shit.

I thought I had one more day to get back to posting until night. At least I save myself quoting 20+ people and writing out answers.

[RootRanger]

moehrpi lynch was a horrid play, and I'm not just saying that because he turned up civ. There was zero basis for him to be any more likely to be mafia than shock, plus there were a lot of other downsides to lynching him that (surprise) came into fruition.

No one considered that

1.) moehrpi could have a power role, meaning that killing him bears a much worse cost than killing shock, who had a role that he had been using to impede our progress. moehrpi ended up being GA, basically the second most important player in the game.

2.) moehrpi could have information, which we never gave him the chance to reveal pre-lynch by lynching him only at the very end of the phase before he had a chance to reveal. There doesn't seem to be a Graboid in this game, which means that the failed N0 nightkill was probably due to a GA. Whoever moehrpi targeted N0 is statistically a lot more likely to be civ, because one of the GA targets was a guaranteed civ due to the fact that the NK failed. But we'll never know. Because civs got pressured into a terrible lynch by mafia who have been dominating the game.

The iancu lynch was silly, but the moehrpi lynch legitimately made zero sense for the civs. I'll be posting my "reads" (I really hate that term, but when people are pushing objectively bad lynches, I start to get a little more confident in my suspicions).

[RootRanger]

vv
Calindu - Recognizes that shock is mafia and moehrpi was a bad lynch but was forced to vote for him bc no lynch was worse, so I won't count that against him. Called shock out for his lies which ultimately costed a role reveal. Active, hasn't done anything dumb, all around good civ.

v
Espithel - Solid civ, makes decent enough arguments, very active, doesn't seem to be doing anything bad. The push on Mobian was interesting. I largely disagree with it but at least he's doing something.

n+
kaempfer - Generally solid civ and contributed to discussion, looked into lynch logs, is realistic about the knowledge the civs have, so I'm leaning civ for him but the vote on moehrpi was concerning. I think he was more likely a civ who was misled by the mafia but he could be scum too.

Insig - He was reckless with his warden ability but it provided useful info in that an Otyugh (probably civ, since we've had two civ Otys die) had been targeting ddevans.

Mobian - Hasn't really done much of note, but at least he's active and hasn't done anything particularly bad.

n
mathman - Super inactive, hard to say.

Ginyu - Also inactive, no strong reads.

n-
MasterWalks - Similar voting with ddevans, pushed the Espi lynch which was then backed up by ddevans. I initially thought he was GN who investigated Espi on N0, but this was disproven by Coffee's info, which means he just gunned after Espi for no reason. Also blindly joins the moehrpi bandwagon.

immortal feud - "if this is what it takes to save shock" -- seriously? A  bad civ would have no info on shock, a bad mafia would try to save him.

w
Linkcat - Directing the flow of the game moreso than any other player, and the game has not been flowing in the right direction. Has been the main reason why shock has not yet been lynched and continues to roleblock civs with impunity. Was given immortality, which is SUPER suspicious, because that role makes no sense for that role to be used in any way other than a mafia targeting another mafia, or (less likely) mafia framing a civ, or civs being dumb with their role usage.

ddevans - Second most influential player after Linkcat, plus Anubis, which means he was likely the mafia player who targeted Linkcat (I think all the bickering between them is entirely fake and that they're  both mafia, will elaborate more on this). Has also been saving shockcannon and convincing half the town that he's civ. Was also the first one to push the moehrpi lynch, which was an awful play. Has been repeatedly saved from lynching too, likely by other mafia.

ww
shockcannon - Super obvious lynch based on his playstyle. I've talked about him enough as is but I could say more if anyone missed the convos. Plus it's always civs supporting to lynch him and (likely) mafia saving him.

[RootRanger]

Ok, now the fun part.

The most realistic mafia team is shockcannon/Linkcat/ddevans, and the last member is either inexperienced (MW/immortal) or laying low (mathman/Ginyu).

There, I said it. Linkcat and ddevans are both mafia. We all realize that at least one of them is mafia, due to the fact that they're basically running the game (and the game is going horrendously), but assume that the other must be civ, due to the fact that they're always bickering with each other (and the "push" on ddevans by Linkcat that he knew wouldn't succeed). But it makes total sense that they would try to pull this off, since it basically guarantees that if one of them dies, the other is treated as a confirmed civ and his word is law.

So, they could be working together as mafia, what makes me think they are? Two reasons.

First, that they both so vehemently defend shockcannon, someone who is clearly acting in the best interests of the mafia. They've both convinced us that he's too "chaotic" to be mafia, and they can use their expert knowledge to deduce that he's clearly civ. They want to keep him alive not just so they can continue to lynch civs with impunity, but also because he's their roleblocker. This last bit is speculation, but I think it's reasonably likely mafia knows who the GN is and is having shock roleblock them rather than using a NK, to prevent vulture from becoming a second GN who they don't know about.

Secondly, Calindu's immaterial reveal that everyone seemed to have forgotten about. This was huge information. We know that 1.) Linkcat was made immaterial and 2.) ddevans is Anubis and most likely the only one in the game. If ddevans were civ, I don't think he would blindly use his role, because it interferes with GN and GA targetting. And if he were mafia, he would use his role to protect other mafias. Yes, there could be another Anubis, who happened to target Linkcat, but I think that's a bit of a stretch.

So there we go. shockcannon is soliciting roles and roleblocking civs, and getting away with it. Linkcat and ddevans are saving him from lynch and pushing lynches on civilians. Linkcat was made immaterial, something which makes the most sense if he's mafia, most likely by ddevans. And the whole fabricated Link/ddevans feud works if no one realizes to question it. If one of them dies, we treat the other as a confirmed civ.

So, yeah, I could be wrong, but this is the most likely mafia team. I'd prioritize the lynch on shock, since he's roleblocking civ roles, but I'd equally support lynches on the other two. Unfortunately I'm less sure about the 4th member, but if we manage to lynch three mafias in a row the next three rounds, the game gets a lot easier.

[MasterWalks]

n-
MasterWalks - Similar voting with ddevans, pushed the Espi lynch which was then backed up by ddevans. I initially thought he was GN who investigated Espi on N0, but this was disproven by Coffee's info, which means he just gunned after Espi for no reason. Also blindly joins the moehrpi bandwagon.

Something i want to clear up here. I wanted to lynch dd more than anyone else last day phase. I said multiple times we shouldnt lynch moehrpi. I wanted to extend timer so he could rebuttal and defend himself. I would have taken a dd lynch over just about anyone else except espi.

Everything else you said stands.

[ddevans96]

I will say this exactly one more time, in response to Root.

I was not the first one to push the moe lynch. Read the chat logs. Read my posts. Even read link's posts. This is false.

Anyone who continues to perpetuate this lie will get my vote.

[ddevans96]

Also - at no point have I said anything remotely resembling 'shock is too chaotic to be mafia'. This is not my opinion. You are, and not for the first time this game, putting words in my mouth.

[kaempfer13]

Spoiler for chatlog:

[18:32:02] ‹AveragePotato› The latest forum post is Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine from RootRanger in Forum Games. Help! I'm trapped in a universe factory!
[18:42:49] ‹kaempfer13› ‹@immortal_feud› ‹@Calindu› are you curious about rrs reads too?
[18:43:25] ‹kaempfer13› espi I couldnt ping you bc youhave neither logged nor said anything in a while
[18:45:38] ‹TheonlyrealBeef› You don't need the weird brackets, and can even just target someone else and replace their name with the person you want to ping if you want them
[18:46:20] ‹TheonlyrealBeef› ‹@Zanzarino›
[18:46:45] ‹kaempfer13› yh I know but was too lazy
[18:48:06] ‹kaempfer13› and besides mw thinks espi is mafia anyway and rr is infallible so he knows hes just going to see a full list of his team
[18:49:19] ‹MasterWalks› I'm kinda sus of root so his reads will be interesting
[18:51:24] ‹kaempfer13› who will be there for nightdeadline?
[18:51:37] ‹kaempfer13› ofc its not really crucial to bearoud for that like it is during the day, just curious
[18:54:12] ‹kaempfer13› [18:48:05] MasterWalks joined. [18:48:06] ‹kaempfer13› and besides mw thinks espi is mafia anyway and rr is infallible so he knows hes just going to see a full list of his team
[18:54:18] ‹kaempfer13› dat summoning doe
[18:56:39] ‹shockcannon› ‹@kaempfer13› you should probably lynch me
[18:56:51] ‹shockcannon› Any town who’s tunneling on me won’t stop until I die
[18:57:15] ‹shockcannon› So just get it over with and hope you can get 4 straight mafia after that in the lynch or die scenario
[18:58:32] ‹kaempfer13› ‹@shockcannon› ill actively support linkcat in trying to push for the real culprits
[18:58:55] ‹kaempfer13› gotta start focussing on someone else early during the day
[18:59:10] ‹shockcannon› but The issue is if root is town
[18:59:37] ‹shockcannon› If root is actually town, then ironically he’s the one acting as a distraction for town by tunneling me so hard and never looking into anyone else
[19:00:01] ‹shockcannon› For him, any other option is just worse than me even if they are suspicious
[19:00:10] ‹shockcannon› So that’s 1 town vote we’ve already lost
[19:01:22] ‹shockcannon› Also at this point I’m starting to think that all 4 mafia are active players
[19:01:26] ‹kaempfer13› with only 1 misslynch tolerable we gotta get a move on
[19:01:39] ‹kaempfer13› lets see what his other reads are first
[19:02:08] ‹shockcannon› I would advise against a mathman lynch next day phase
[19:02:09] ‹kaempfer13› hopefully hes already writing it, the suspense is killing me
[19:02:20] ‹shockcannon› Same with ginyu.
[19:03:12] ‹shockcannon› You know, I will acknowledge that my play may have hurt town quite a bit
[19:03:19] ‹shockcannon› But inactivity really hurts town as well
[19:03:34] ‹shockcannon› You can be active in discussion without giving away that you have a powerful role
[19:03:58] ‹shockcannon› Being GA or GN or graboid doesn’t mean you have to sit back and never talk
[19:04:01] ‹kaempfer13› yh
[19:04:02] ‹AveragePotato› The latest forum post is Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine from RootRanger in Forum Games. Between love and madness lies this post.
[19:10:29] ‹MasterWalks› Wow
[19:10:38] ‹MasterWalks› Those are some backwards reads
[19:13:37] ‹kaempfer13› other than shock they are not too bad and hes clearly got his reason for that one
[19:13:56] ‹kaempfer13› somehow i doubt both link and dd are mafia though
[19:14:18] ‹kaempfer13› i wonder how his read changes when one dies
[19:21:40] ‹kaempfer13› welp, overall he didnt change my opinion of anyone
[19:23:07] ‹Calindu› Solid list overall, some small things I'd change, but I agree with most of it
[19:24:01] ‹AveragePotato› The latest forum post is Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine from RootRanger in Forum Games. Do you even post?
[19:30:01] ‹AveragePotato› The latest forum post is Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine from MasterWalks in Forum Games. I found Waldo.
[19:30:57] ‹MasterWalks› I say we lynch dd or link next. Root makes a really good point on them I must say. dd to me is more sus but Link is immaterial. Id actually lean more to a link lynch
[19:37:47] ‹kaempfer13› ‹@MasterWalks› can you link me to links post where he argues untargetability (exception: nk) is good for town?
[19:39:34] ‹MasterWalks› Where Link argues it? I dont remember anyone arguing immaterial is good
[19:40:54] ‹kaempfer13› link thanked for it
[19:43:34] ‹kaempfer13› damn gotta look through chatlogs i guess
[19:51:14] ‹Ginyu› He was being sarcastic.
[19:51:23] ‹Ginyu› ‹@kaempfer13›
[19:52:45] ‹MasterWalks› We should also ignore Link and DD in a similar way we ignored shock. I really do think they are orchestrating
[19:52:58] ‹MasterWalks› O R E C H E S T R A T E
[19:53:13] ‹MasterWalks› spelled it wrong but whatever
[19:53:45] ‹Guest-GiantFrog-c080b›
(6d10) 4 + 3 + 7 + 5 + 1 + 4 = 24 ...
[19:54:32] ‹Calindu› I still have my firefly on Linkcat, I'd argue about lynching dd first
[19:56:47] ‹kaempfer13› ‹@Ginyu› oh right, it wasa jab at dd
[19:57:26] ‹kaempfer13› in the vein of "thanks for targetting me and lying about it"
[19:57:38] ‹kaempfer13› really easy to missinterpret
[19:58:06] ‹kaempfer13› http://elementscommunity.org/forum/forum-game...
[20:00:28] ‹Calindu› How confident are you guys that one of dd/Linkcat is mafia?
[20:00:49] ‹Calindu› Because if so, I might be able to provide more info by revealing Link's role
[20:01:59] ‹kaempfer13› I think exactly one of them is, even after what root said
[20:02:10] ‹kaempfer13› dont do it too hastily
[20:05:25] ‹iancudorinmarian›
(6d10) 5 + 5 + 1 + 5 + 9 + 10 = 35 ...
[20:07:06] ‹kaempfer13› then again his not getting how its a bad role sounds weird to me
[20:08:01] ‹AveragePotato› The latest forum post is Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine from ddevans96 in Forum Games. You got 30 minutes.
[20:12:02] ‹AveragePotato› The latest forum post is Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine from ddevans96 in Forum Games. Better posts through research.
[20:12:34] ‹ddevans96› so we're ignoring shock for lying, right
[20:12:50] ‹ddevans96› can we also ignore
[20:13:01] ‹ddevans96› [checks list]
[20:13:12] ‹ddevans96› Link, kae, MW, Root
[20:13:15] ‹ddevans96› ty
[20:13:48] ‹MasterWalks› why kaempf?
[20:13:52] ‹kaempfer13› ‹@ddevans96› ?
[20:14:36] ‹ddevans96› post with incorrect facts. responded to it earlier
[20:15:38] ‹ddevans96› idk, least blatant/serious of the four
[20:15:46] ‹kaempfer13› as in me missunderstanding other posts or straightup lying?
[20:15:58] ‹kaempfer13› the former happened i think, I guess
[20:16:26] ‹ddevans96› I guess if it was a misunderstanding, that'd be different
[20:16:48] ‹kaempfer13› but thats not intentional and you should def point it out when it happens
[20:17:02] ‹ddevans96› I'll go back and look at it, this game's been such a blur honestly
[20:17:21] ‹kaempfer13› i dont think i even stated anything as a fact this mafia
[20:17:50] ‹moehrpi› As happens with all newly dead players I was suddenly enlightened and now know all mafia. Can town please get their game on and win already?
[20:17:53] ‹kaempfer13› except that i am new i guess
[20:18:16] ‹MasterWalks› If we are ignoring for lying, i shouldnt be in that list. If we are ignoring for being dumb and making accusations, then i should be in that list
[20:21:37] ‹ddevans96› eh
[20:22:17] ‹kaempfer13› honestly i dont remember any of them lying
[20:22:34] ‹ddevans96› Root and Link have in recent posts
[20:22:56] ‹kaempfer13› ‹@ddevans96› link pls
[20:23:09] ‹kaempfer13› as in to the posts
[20:23:27] ‹kaempfer13› well ask link to get it together when i find myself agreeing
[20:23:41] ‹ddevans96› I'm on phone, so look at the replies to Root I just made, and my last response to Link
[20:24:30] ‹ddevans96› he misrepresented the entire situation around the moe lynch
[20:25:50] ‹kaempfer13› ‹@ddevans96› he went purely by lynchlog i think
[20:26:20] ‹ddevans96› it had literally been said multiple times in the thread
[20:26:45] ‹ddevans96› no excuse. and Root's done similar earlier in the game
[20:27:10] ‹ddevans96› where he'd state as fact why I did something and it was wrong
[20:27:46] ‹ddevans96› pretty much all in chat though
[20:28:04] ‹ddevans96› one of them has to be mafia, pulling the strings
[20:28:25] ‹ddevans96› bc town is getting manipulated so hard
[20:28:52] ‹ddevans96› mostly at my expense, but in other situations too
[20:29:04] ‹iancudorinmarian›
(6d10) 5 + 3 + 10 + 1 + 3 + 1 = 23 ...
[20:29:08] ‹ddevans96› maybe it's both of them, idk
[20:30:12] ‹ddevans96› and that's why whatever misunderstandings you made can't be overlooked. It could be just that, or it could be what your mafia boss wants everyone to believe. still fuels doubt against me
[20:30:34] ‹kaempfer13› understandable oversimplifications/misinterpretations
[20:31:08] ‹ddevans96› they felt notable to me, otherwise I'd discard them. I'm sorry I don't remember specifics, I'll find the posts tonight
[20:31:48] ‹kaempfer13› i know for a fact that atleast one of us isnt mafia, but oh well, at this point i need more reads than just that
[20:32:21] ‹ddevans96› yeah, there's no way all four of you are mafia
[20:32:49] ‹moehrpi›
(3d14) 8 + 13 + 5 = 26 ...
[20:33:05] ‹ddevans96› it's not really a scumread, just more a commentary on how thoroughly mafia has controlled this game
[20:33:17] ‹kaempfer13› bc you are the other one
[20:33:20] ‹ddevans96› I can't trust anything at all right now
[20:33:30] ‹ddevans96› false
[20:33:32] ‹Mobian› Good afternoon
[20:33:51] ‹ddevans96› even if town loses, I'll be happy when I'm vindicated
[20:34:56] ‹ddevans96› winning the game is ideal, but it's not going to happen as long as people are convinced I'm a likely mafia, and there isn't much I can do about that
[20:35:22] ‹Mobian› I'm sold on shock and Link. MW is a potential, along with Espi
[20:35:26] ‹ddevans96› mafia might legitimately have a perfect game
[20:36:22] ‹ddevans96› but as long as we lynch Link, there's hope
[20:36:52] ‹Mobian› Shock first
[20:37:46] ‹ddevans96› Link is 90% mafia afaic. I'm going to push for that lynch
[20:38:19] ‹ddevans96› but I'm okay with lynching shock now
[20:38:30] ‹ddevans96› so I'll relent if it comes to that
[20:39:07] ‹ddevans96› honestly, I was okay with lynching him instead of moe, who I thought was town
[20:39:36] ‹ddevans96› but Link would have just said 'oh wow, he's hard defending his mafia buddy moe'
[20:39:48] ‹ddevans96› and it wouldn't have mattered lol
[20:39:48] ‹Mobian› Once he's down, I will help with Link
[20:39:50] ‹Calindu› I thought you didn't want to lynch shock at all
[20:40:02] ‹ddevans96› not at first
[20:40:24] ‹ddevans96› but I think Root might be right about Link and shock both being mafia
[20:40:44] ‹ddevans96› that's the only way though - if Link is town, shock is also town
[20:40:52] ‹Calindu› I'm ok with lynching any of my scumreads
[20:41:06] ‹ddevans96› granted, if Link is town, you'll lynch me and it won't matter
[20:41:57] ‹ddevans96› if Link is town, the correct lynch is Root, imo
[20:42:01] ‹Calindu› Yeah, I still consider one of you as mafia, the other one as town
[20:42:09] ‹ddevans96› one of them is the mastermind
[20:42:50] ‹ddevans96› yeah, that's a popular opinion
[20:43:01] ‹Mobian› I disagree about the..... link... between Link and shock
[20:43:15] ‹ddevans96› the thing with popular opinions is that they're more likely to be fueled by mafia
[20:43:29] ‹ddevans96› not guaranteed, mind
[20:43:33] ‹ddevans96› but more likely
[20:43:50] ‹kaempfer13› if shock is mafias sacrificial lamb and link mafia i dont think linkcat would save him and risk being exposed for it
[20:44:03] ‹Mobian› I do believe both to be dirty, but I don't believe one flipping town excludes the other
[20:44:25] ‹ddevans96› he wouldn't be the sacrificial lamb
[20:44:50] ‹ddevans96› shock being town would not exclude Link being town imo. just one way
[20:45:10] ‹Mobian› If Link IS town, he's simply blinded by his massive shock broner
[20:45:44] ‹kaempfer13› mafia link would absolutely defend town shock so long as the alternative is another town
[20:45:47] ‹ddevans96› which is literally just 'he made a townie post'
[20:46:06] ‹ddevans96› which is literally what mafia wants to do
[20:46:30] ‹Mobian› And likely what happened D3
[20:46:37] ‹ddevans96› and yeah, what kae said
[20:46:42] ‹ddevans96› my opinion exactly
[20:47:23] ‹Mobian› They expertly deflected the lynch onto an inactive townie they KNEW would be absent
[20:48:11] ‹Mobian› When you and I chose math, Link scrambled to redirect there too. That's sus in my book
[20:48:52] ‹ddevans96› yeah, like I posted, I think that was a setup. illusion of choice
[20:49:17] ‹Mobian› They have a Psion. They KNEW he was GA
[20:51:59] ‹kaempfer13› meh a psion would probably have found gn by now
[20:52:06] ‹kaempfer13› ffq maybe

tl;dr: Hype for rrs reads. Turns out they are about as expected from root.
Some people are called into question, focus on linkcat (immaterial thanks (sarcasm?), dd interpretation, shock defense), ddevans96, root
dd thinks Link, kae, MW, Root and shock misconstrued things (yh thats me in there, make of it what you will)
Mobian giving lynch preferences (shock, link, mw, espi)

[ddevans96]

To clarify: Mostly Link and Root. I think one of them is the mafia's mastermind. I'm leaning Link, obviously. The others are a wildcard (shock) or probably genuine misunderstandings, but this game has felt so cutthroat that I can't not be a little paranoid about them (MW/kae)

[RootRanger]

I will say this exactly one more time, in response to Root.

I was not the first one to push the moe lynch. Read the chat logs. Read my posts. Even read link's posts. This is false.

Anyone who continues to perpetuate this lie will get my vote.

Also - at no point have I said anything remotely resembling 'shock is too chaotic to be mafia'. This is not my opinion. You are, and not for the first time this game, putting words in my mouth.

So I missed a few small details. All the same, you still supported the moe lynch instead of shock, which was clearly the better target.

My central points, relating to your defense of shock and Linkcat's immaterial status, still stand.

I've provided a realistic list of 4 people who are mafia. Who do you think they are?