Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou

[JonathanCrazyJ]

Jcj, can you please respond, I'm trying to figure something out. Let me know if you targeted someone and if so, if it was me

I already have responded. I targeted rob.

BAD NEWS CHIEF I REFLECTED FROM ROB TO SOMEONE

Inconsequential

[killsdazombies]

And now we've come full(ish) circle. One more ability unaccounted for, but they know who they are

Now, a brief question. We're killing coffee, but would it be better to kill dawn? (If we can work out if he's jailor or not) I don't plan on saving fabian, so he'll die tomorrow, bUT if dawn is the jailor and mafia, isnt it /strictly/ better to kill a scum jailor over a scum bodyguard?

[Solaris]

Jcj, can you please respond, I'm trying to figure something out. Let me know if you targeted someone and if so, if it was me

I already have responded. I targeted rob.

BAD NEWS CHIEF I REFLECTED FROM ROB TO SOMEONE

Inconsequential

YOU'RE INCONSEQUENTIAL

[UTAlan]

Still waiting for how we know dawn is (or may be) jailor?

[killsdazombies]

Still waiting for how we know dawn is (or may be) jailor?

I am as well, that's why I added so many qualifiers to my statement.

But I think via process of elimination we kind of have, I'd likefor someone to spell it out though

[rob77dp]

Coffeditto (3) - JonathanCrazyJ, killsdazombies, Solaris
dawn to dusk (1) - rob77dp

Pressure elsewhere is not a bad idea... dawn has not bee overly towny and resides in my group of 'somewhere-less-than-Coffee' scumreads with a need for us to see from him today.

* Sol - stop putting your vote in the front end of totals... I think you did it previously too once or twice. Vote Order is also to be reflected as part of the voting totals so add yours at the end of the string and if a new wagon/vote-recipient they go at the bottom of the list.

[JonathanCrazyJ]

Coffeditto (3) - JonathanCrazyJ, killsdazombies, Solaris
dawn to dusk (1) - rob77dp

Pressure elsewhere is not a bad idea... dawn has not bee overly towny and resides in my group of 'somewhere-less-than-Coffee' scumreads with a need for us to see from him today.

* Sol - stop putting your vote in the front end of totals... I think you did it previously too once or twice. Vote Order is also to be reflected as part of the voting totals so add yours at the end of the string and if a new wagon/vote-recipient they go at the bottom of the list.

Sol DID vote first lol

[rob77dp]

Coffeditto (3) - JonathanCrazyJ, killsdazombies, Solaris
dawn to dusk (1) - rob77dp

Pressure elsewhere is not a bad idea... dawn has not bee overly towny and resides in my group of 'somewhere-less-than-Coffee' scumreads with a need for us to see from him today.

* Sol - stop putting your vote in the front end of totals... I think you did it previously too once or twice. Vote Order is also to be reflected as part of the voting totals so add yours at the end of the string and if a new wagon/vote-recipient they go at the bottom of the list.

Sol DID vote first lol

Apparently I'm a big idiot... I saw Sol's post and did not catch it was him putting on SOMEONE ELSE's vote for them. >.<

Coffeditto (3) - Solaris, JonathanCrazyJ, killsdazombies
dawn to dusk (1) - rob77dp

Fixed now?

[Submachine]

If gino's jailmute went through, then I'm fairly certain that dawn is the second Jailor.

In which case we should vote for dawn, right? Also, how did you come to that conclusion?

UTAlan, kdz, Solaris and Coffee all claimed different, plausible roles.
Rob and fabian claimed to be jailed by a "Tranquilizer Dart" Jailor.
Gino claimed Jailor, but says he didn't jail any of them. If his ability succeeded, we will learn if there is a second Jailor or not by looking at the ability name.
I am not a Jailor.
All signs point to that JCJ targeted rob tonight, but rob didn't get any Jailor-related notifications - things that one would receive if one would be targeted by a Jailor.

This leaves dawn as our last option.

Spoiler for Theory Crafting:

Jcj, can you please respond, I'm trying to figure something out. Let me know if you targeted someone and if so, if it was me

I already have responded. I targeted rob.

BAD NEWS CHIEF I REFLECTED FROM ROB TO SOMEONE

Hmm, let me think about this. Politician ability was used to channel targets from rob to someone else. JCJ admitted to targetting rob, so there's at least 1 redirect.

Jcj, can you please respond, I'm trying to figure something out. Let me know if you targeted someone and if so, if it was me

Kdz is wondering if JCJ targeted him or someone else. His confusion seems to stem from the redirection, but why would he ask about it if he wasn't involved?

Kdz was the first one to ask questions about the redirection, so I assume he was either involved (probable) or knew about the details from someone else in a PM (unlikely).

My theory is that Solaris redirected all targeting from rob to kdz. Correct me if I'm wrong.

My current theory about the setup is the following:

Criminal: dawn, ...
Intel: fabian
Town: UTAlan, rob, Sub, gino, (Sol?), ..., ...

Unplaced: Coffee, JCJ, kdz. Unsure about Sol, but I gave him the benefit of doubt.

Reads:

Coffee: Coffee is a highly problematic point right now. As I see it now, as far as he lives, a significant majority will focus on him, which gives opportunities for mafia to slip under our radar. I am okay with leaving Coffee alive, but only as long as we conform to at least one of these criteria:

• We continue the game with an open mindset, not letting Coffee distract ourselves too much. A healthy amount of suspicion on Coffee is okay, just keep looking for the 2nd mafia candidate.
• We actually lynch a Criminal today. (Highly preferable!)

dawn: Currently he's my top read for Jailor #2. I associate Jailor 2 with the Criminal group, because they showed harmful intentions by temporarily muting one of our top town reads: rob.

fabian: I saw no confirmation that math actually poisoned him, so it's not impossible that math skipped him. Math flipped Intel, so if he wanted to protect fabian, it would make sense if he would be Intel too. In that case though, I'd really like the last Intel member to speak up. At this point, the only reason for Intel to not speak up is if they have a role that one of the factions deems harmful.

kdz: There have been repeated mentions that either math or rob will be protected, but mafia still decided to shoot among them for 50-50. I wonder if the remaining Criminals would actually risk something like this, OR would they know in advance that noone will protect math? I can think of 3 plausible excuses for his defense, but it alarms me how lucky mafia was with that kill.

These are the most recent reads. The rest is a bit older, but still up to date.

WAS ANYONE JAILMUTED TONIGHT?!

At this point, we would benefit a lot if we managed to kill a Criminal. I really hope that the clues and evidence I presented led me to the right person.

Coffeditto (3) - Solaris, JonathanCrazyJ, killsdazombies
dawn to dusk (2) - rob77dp, Submachine

However, I am still waiting for the confirmation of a second Jailor. Iirc, gino said he would mute fabian. So,

@FABIAN: If you were jailed, post your username. Also try to come up with a custom alphabet and spell out the received ability's name as a code

RIP math.

I think I shared everything I wanted for now.

[UTAlan]

I think kdz is Intel and I think I know JCJ's role. This means Jailor is either Sub or dawn. Sub is denying it, so let's go with dawn. Can someone crunch the numbers and ensure we'd be okay if we mislynch today? Will it be game over? If so, Sub could be bluffing as Criminal!Jailor to get the heat off him and get a mislynch.

[UTAlan]

kdz: There have been repeated mentions that either math or rob will be protected, but mafia still decided to shoot among them for 50-50. I wonder if the remaining Criminals would actually risk something like this, OR would they know in advance that noone will protect math? I can think of 3 plausible excuses for his defense, but it alarms me how lucky mafia was with that kill.

This is important because it's been 2 nights in a row that this has happened. They knew either I or dd would be protected 2 nights ago and still NK'd dd. They're either playing risky and it's paying off, or they have inside info (*cough* kdz *cough*)

[Submachine]

I think kdz is Intel and I think I know JCJ's role. This means Jailor is either Sub or dawn. Sub is denying it, so let's go with dawn. Can someone crunch the numbers and ensure we'd be okay if we mislynch today? Will it be game over? If so, Sub could be bluffing as Criminal!Jailor to get the heat off him and get a mislynch.

If there is a high demand, I can soft-confirm that I'm not Jailor. However, I don't feel comfortable completely revealing my role while there is more than 1 mafia alive, unless there is a mass roleclaim.

Can someone crunch the numbers and ensure we'd be okay if we mislynch today? Will it be game over?

We currently have 2 Mafia, 1 Intel, 7 Town. In worst case scenario, there are 2 Town poisoned as of now:

Day 4: 2 Mafia, 1 Intel, 7 Town (2 poisoned).
Night 4: 2 Mafia, 1 Intel, 6 Town (2 poisoned).
Day 5: 2 Mafia, 1 Intel, 4 Town (1 poisoned).

So we have room for a final myslinch in the worst case scenario, but then Town MUST kill a Criminal in order to win. These scenarios usually end up by mafia winning, so let's not lynch a Town member today, if possible.