Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou

[Coffeeditto]

i stand corrected, partially

[JonathanCrazyJ]

Well this was a good read with my morning tea! Congrats all!
Gonna put something here about my reading of Coffee:
Read him as scummy mainly due to Link's read of him. Read him as less scummy when he made his reads post, as it seemed well put together. Now I am reading him as more scummy again because of Luna in his reads. To me, as Luna iirc had no votes on her at that point, so placing her in scum lean was insurance in case Coffee was Lynched. I don't think he expected Luna to be lynched first.

(yes I know this is a catch 22, but it's more the way he WROTE about luna rather than teh category he put her in)

[Submachine]

Now that it's night, time to bring up the plans:

Even Nights

- UTAlan uses Refugee Ability 1 (self-protect, no voting next day)
- Solaris uses Politician Ability 1, targets rob*->UTAlan
- Doctor uses Ability 1 on Solaris

Odd Nights

- Coffeeditto uses Bodyguard Ability 1 on UTAlan
- Observer uses Ability 2 on UTAlan
- Doctor uses Ability 1 on rob*


Potential Pitfalls

- As of now, I'm the only confirmed townie. This plan relies on protecting unconfirmed individuals. Not necessarily bad, but could subconsciously be providing town feels for rob* and Solaris since they are being protected.
- This assumes we have a town Doctor and a town Observer (which are not confirmed) and that even if we do, they silently go along with the plan.
- If everyone goes along with the plan, Jailor can't do anything to hurt us on even nights (unless they target randomly and happen to hit the doctor). On odd nights, Jailor can hit Coffee and leave me vulnerable to NK, but Observer will see who targeted me.

Anything I'm missing?


* Note that rob can be replaced with just about anyone in the above plan, except Solaris, Coffee, and me.

Even if we don't trust Coffee, he's alive, so the least we can do is to make him protect UTA tonight. Bodyguard protection has no way to fail, so that means a foolproof protection for UTA tonight. If UTA dies, we kill the Batman Coff, because then we know he didn't protect UTA. If that happens, it's totally worth the 1-1 exchange of mafia and town, because then mafia would be down to 1 survivor.

[UTAlan]

Except jailor prevents Bodyguard protection from going through

[UTAlan]

We could do Coffee + Observer on me, or Coffee on me + Observer on Coffee.

Then Doctor(s) could go to other townish targets.

[Submachine]

Except jailor prevents Bodyguard protection from going through

Are we sure though?

Bodyguard is higher up the priority list, which I assume means that the protection happens either way. Would like some clarification on this.

Also if the Jailor interferes, we'll know that the Jailor is mafia too, which makes it a bit easier to find who it is. If gino said the truth, it is possible that we have a second, criminal Jailor.

I looked into the roles a bit and I'm wondering if Luna's Student ability mattered for her teammates or not. It doesn't look dangerous at first read.

Also, noone was really vocal about getting a Merchant ability so far, which makes me think that we got a Mafia Merchant, granting abilities for their teammates.

ian: "I also used an ability last night on UTA. (It was a helpful one, dont worry)"
ian: "my role is pretty average (almost useless in fact),"

This combination of posts struck me as a Merchant at first, but we have no way to prove what ian was onto here, because UTA was blocking all targeting yesterday.

[UTAlan]

Bodyguard is higher up the priority list, which I assume means that the protection happens either way. Would like some clarification on this.

Bodyguard reflection is higher than jailer. Protection is lower.

Also if the Jailor interferes, we'll know that the Jailor is mafia too, which makes it a bit easier to find who it is. If gino said the truth, it is possible that we have a second, criminal Jailor.

Yes, but that's only valuable info if we have an Observer watching me or Coffee, otherwise we don't know if jailor interfered or if Criminal!Coffee just didn't use his ability.

[rob77dp]

Except jailor prevents Bodyguard protection from going through

Are we sure though?

Bodyguard is higher up the priority list, which I assume means that the protection happens either way. Would like some clarification on this.  You are not being careful about Ability 1 and Ability 2 distinction. The self-protecting BG-Ability#2 is above Jailor-Ability#1 but BG-Ability#1 _would be stopped_ or interrupted by Jailor-Ability#1.

Also if the Jailor interferes, we'll know that the Jailor is mafia too, which makes it a bit easier to find who it is. If gino said the truth, it is possible that we have a second, criminal Jailor. I am somewhat confident among fabian/gino we have one of them being not-Town (likely Criminal) _if_ neither has massively misplayed. My logic behind that assertion.

I looked into the roles a bit and I'm wondering if Luna's Student ability mattered for her teammates or not. It doesn't look dangerous at first read. Doubtful that anything consequential occurred due to Luna being Student -- Possibly could have given Criminals a little bit of insight on which key roles have certain cooldowns or maybe some Intel-vs-Town primary role distinction...

Also, noone was really vocal about getting a Merchant ability so far, which makes me think that we got a Mafia Merchant, granting abilities for their teammates. It is possible but I see it as only a remote possibility because neither Espi nor Luna had extra abilities on their flip and Merchant!Criminal would have to still be alive leaving just one fellow Criminal available for the ability-giving targeting -- smallish odds they would have managed to both be the last two alive AND have the roles lines up that way too.

ian: "I also used an ability last night on UTA. (It was a helpful one, dont worry)"
ian: "my role is pretty average (almost useless in fact),"

This combination of posts struck me as a Merchant at first, but we have no way to prove what ian was onto here, because UTA was blocking all targeting yesterday.

Replied in Orange-Red color, above.

With 2/4 Criminals dead and two Officer flips already I'm seeing not much investigative-night-actions being left on the board -- a mass role claim _may not_ be a bad idea at this juncture to more concretely lay out such plans... However, no protective roles have flipped so I could see the upside to staying hidden/secret too. Thoughts/comments from the rest of you lot?

[UTAlan]

Not sure about mass role claim yet. I see some potential good coming out of it (narrowing down field of mafia), but also puts our protective roles at higher risk. Only worth it if we were certain we could nail a mafia via role claim. Also keep in mind that we have 10 roles and 18 players signed up. That means if roles were distributed evenly (I think it's safe to assume that they were), then 2 roles only have 1 instance, giving mafia 2 potential false-claims without dispute. Now they won't know what those are until nearly everyone has claimed, but it's still a possibility.

[JonathanCrazyJ]

Except jailor prevents Bodyguard protection from going through

Are we sure though?

Bodyguard is higher up the priority list, which I assume means that the protection happens either way. Would like some clarification on this.  You are not being careful about Ability 1 and Ability 2 distinction. The self-protecting BG-Ability#2 is above Jailor-Ability#1 but BG-Ability#1 _would be stopped_ or interrupted by Jailor-Ability#1.

Also if the Jailor interferes, we'll know that the Jailor is mafia too, which makes it a bit easier to find who it is. If gino said the truth, it is possible that we have a second, criminal Jailor. I am somewhat confident among fabian/gino we have one of them being not-Town (likely Criminal) _if_ neither has massively misplayed. My logic behind that assertion.

I looked into the roles a bit and I'm wondering if Luna's Student ability mattered for her teammates or not. It doesn't look dangerous at first read. Doubtful that anything consequential occurred due to Luna being Student -- Possibly could have given Criminals a little bit of insight on which key roles have certain cooldowns or maybe some Intel-vs-Town primary role distinction...

Also, noone was really vocal about getting a Merchant ability so far, which makes me think that we got a Mafia Merchant, granting abilities for their teammates. It is possible but I see it as only a remote possibility because neither Espi nor Luna had extra abilities on their flip and Merchant!Criminal would have to still be alive leaving just one fellow Criminal available for the ability-giving targeting -- smallish odds they would have managed to both be the last two alive AND have the roles lines up that way too.

ian: "I also used an ability last night on UTA. (It was a helpful one, dont worry)"
ian: "my role is pretty average (almost useless in fact),"

This combination of posts struck me as a Merchant at first, but we have no way to prove what ian was onto here, because UTA was blocking all targeting yesterday.

Replied in Orange-Red color, above.

With 2/4 Criminals dead and two Officer flips already I'm seeing not much investigative-night-actions being left on the board -- a mass role claim _may not_ be a bad idea at this juncture to more concretely lay out such plans... However, no protective roles have flipped so I could see the upside to staying hidden/secret too. Thoughts/comments from the rest of you lot?

That is a terrible idea.
A) intelligence win
B) all roles can be had by mafia as well as players, so we gain literally nothing

[JonathanCrazyJ]

I mean intel winning doesn't mean town don't also win, but i still think it's not a good idea

[UTAlan]

@dawn - I'm sorry you haven't had a great experience this mafia. This has been an extremely high volume game compared to previous games. I think overall this is a very good thing (for the game and for the community/forum games section), but it does have the downside of making it difficult for more casual players / busier players. I have the advantage of working from home, so I can at least kind of keep up throughout the day even if I'm not able to make posts.

FWIW, I don't have a scum-read on you. I don't have a town-read, either, but that's just because you haven't been able to post as much as others. I hope you are able to make posts when you can, do your best to read as much as is feasible for you and make evaluations based on that, and contribute to town (assuming you aren't Criminal...) in any other way you can. Worst case scenario - you get killed and start fresh next game. Best case scenario - you either survive and help us win or you die and we learn from your death in a way that helps us win.