Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou

[godisnowonline]

EBWOP @rob the above is for you. Link saw what i was trying to do and luna dismissed it because she knows there isn't much a jailor can do to mess with mafia right now. In fact ability 2 gives them a chance to defend eachother with no real counters because the person can't say much. This is mostly why my scum read on fabian refuses to pipe down.

[rob77dp]

-snip-

I think it is unlikely that the last 2 Criminals are grouped together anywhere in here.

This would mean I think that at most:

* 1 of JCJ/dawn/Submachine/mathman/kdz
* 1 of gino/fabian/DC/ian/ddevans
* 1 of Coffee/UTA/Solaris

I notice that with 2 Criminals left if the premise of them both not being together is true then it also means that only one of these groups is 100% Criminal-less. My future scum-reads and list of reads should reflect this and if they don't it's a mistake and call it out. Thanks.

(Bonus tidbit: Luna being pretty stubborn about sitting on math with DC train gaining momentum spews, in my opinion, that math is town and/or DC is Criminal -- most strongly feeling the math=town piece)

Going further on this... cross-referencing with what I belive to be high likelihood reads I'm left with:

~ Max 1 between Coffee/Sol
~ Max 1 between gino/fabian/DC/ian
~ Max 1 between dawn/math/kdz

Final step of overlaying my actual READS on this I prefer, in this moment, a POE of:
Coffee > ian > dawn/kdz

My town-reads right now:
UTA/dd > Sub/JCJ/gino > Sol/math > fabian/DC

[rob77dp]

dd - absence reason noted. I found it NAI at the time and now too. I don't have issues with you taking my place in the "plan" if we follow through on it. I still consider myself more "confirmed" than you are but 100% is only slightly higher than 99.9% so there's that.

I really don't think the plan should happen given how high I put the chances of Coffee being Criminal (~40% if put into a number/value).

[godisnowonline]

@rob mind evaluating my pair of posts?

[UTAlan]

Though I see DC is next in line, at this point. Started by dd, so that's something. Would like some reasoning on why DC over Luna. Imo, we should lynch Luna and ask the (theoretical) second hitman to assassinate DC on N3. Would confirm either no second hitman or scum hitman if DC doesn't get killed (though only theoretically b/c it could be an inactive/non-complicit town/Intel).

Justified my DC vote when I made it. Also, there's maybe a 1% chance I'm not town, so many improbable things would have had to happen for that to be the case. While it's not hard confirmation, I don't know why there's any suspicion being put on me.

Additionally, I'd appreciate my response to my request that I be targeted and not rob, as I don't see one.

Hmmm, how is @ddevans96 not around for this EOD? I don't recall him leaving a doctor's note (figure of speech only) that he would be missing it. This is frequently his online time of day too...

Dinner with friends.

I should be sleeping, but I wanted to respond to this. 1) The "dd started it, so that's something" was town-credit, not scum-suspicion. As in, okay a near-confirmed town started this train, so it's not all bad. 2) I later disclaimed that I couldn't recall any reasons already given. My own fault and laziness. I'll go back and find that tomorrow. 3) I forgot to respond, but yes, replace rob with you on the plans I proposed.

[Solaris]

kinda sad that you put me on the scum end spectrum of things, rob, i've done nothing but cooperate

[Solaris]

i might be misinterpreting that "town reads" weird little flowchart thing though

[UTAlan]

Math and gino get stronger town leans after how the end of the last phase went.

Sol - I have you around the same spot. Town lean, but not too much on this side of neutral. Take comfort in this - currently there are loads of players on the other side of you.

[godisnowonline]

I mean your refugee 1 completely annihilated my chance to breadcrumb and i'd rather do something useful than wait till end of game to call back to it. It also gives us an opportunity to control the remaining flow of the game.

[rob77dp]

town-reads:
UTA
dd

lesser town-reads:
Sub
JCJ
gino
Sol
mathman

Meh/null/unsure/etc:
fabian
DC

smaller scum-leans:
ian
dawn
kdz

scum-reads:
Coffee

@rob mind evaluating my pair of posts?

Hi this is time to make a call back to all of my dancing and waving at you and uta.

First off, I refuse to claim responsibility for the ability use on Fabian because it wasn't me. I attempted to bread crumb for you and uta by calling attention to utas lost voting power.

I am going to go back for the posts but the posts where i talk about sentencing are the ones where i was trying to draw your attention. I'm telling you this because i believe that without colossal misplay town is on track for a win and we can figure out who is the best target for jailor 2.

EBWOP @rob the above is for you. Link saw what i was trying to do and luna dismissed it because she knows there isn't much a jailor can do to mess with mafia right now. In fact ability 2 gives them a chance to defend eachother with no real counters because the person can't say much. This is mostly why my scum read on fabian refuses to pipe down.

Alright gino -- I think your posts here are fine... What I get from it that you're softing being Jailor but rejecting any notion that you were the one muting fabian. If you're comfortable hard-claiming then I'd ask also who you targeted, if anyone, with your own ability 2 so far. It would help with "are there maybe two jailors?" or "is there a counter claim somewhere?" etc...

* I don't think you should be gearing up for targeting ANYBODY with ability 2 if you are town. Silencing Criminals means get-out-of-jail-free card for them to not spew teammates and silencing Town means less input and one less town-vote on the lynch.

You also are softing your scum-read on fabian being that you doubt a second jailor is out there and so you're positing that he faked the thing and that Kuro was clever-clever-mod and went with it to make sure we couldn't/shouldn't angle for mod-spew about it being real/fake?

[UTAlan]

I really don't think the plan should happen given how high I put the chances of Coffee being Criminal (~40% if put into a number/value).

Gotta say I kinda agree now. He looks all kinds of shady after Lunaris flipped mafia. Go back to a more vague / generic plan of protection? It would be nice to keep the stronger town reads alive so mafia has to whittle down the pools they're lying in.

[Solaris]

my hailmary is Coffee and Ian as last 2 maf