Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou

[UTAlan]

I forgot to add this under the green section:

* On nights when I'm vulnerable, Coffee directly protects me.

If I ever die on those nights, we lynch Coffee. If he gets NK'd, we know he was town and we saved a lynch.

[rob77dp]

Do you find it alignment indicative or telling, in your opinion, on any of the players that you see as not breaking the tie?

None of that. I'm just amazed by the change of pace compared to the first day's bloodlust.


Anyway, we know that Coffee is Bodyguard and that he actually used his role on someone. What do we know about math? You know that I'm all about role effectiveness, so the better role is getting my favor, and so far a Bg would be great to get UTA that perma-protection.

Can you stop with that? BG is not required in order for UTA to be protected. I've covered that previously and believe that saving BG _only_ because of that _if_ we otherwise think Coffee scummy is a bad reason to not lynch him (of course, if you think he is town then that is different, but you're using this "we need the BG" angle).

[UTAlan]

Why we shouldn't lynch Coffee today

If Coffee is town:
* On nights when I can use my ability, I'm protected.
* Solaris can redirect all targeting abilities on rob to me, protecting rob.
* Coffee can target Solaris

At some point, mafia has to decide if they want to break this protective chain and use a NK on Coffee, saving us the lynch. If NK ever fails to go through as a result of this protective chain, we have a nearly-confirmed town in Coffee.

If Coffee is scum:
We still do the above, but at some point mafia has to decide to either waste a NK (highly unlikely) or give away Coffee as scum by breaking the chain.


If we lynch Coffee now and he flips town, we lost a protective role. If he flips scum - great. But there's still value in having a scum protective role trying to maintain his cover. The longer he survives the scummier he will look. Let's wait it out and see how things play out.

[rob77dp]

Why we shouldn't lynch Coffee today

If Coffee is town:
* On nights when I can use my ability, I'm protected.
* Solaris can redirect all targeting abilities on rob to me, protecting rob.
* Coffee can target Solaris

At some point, mafia has to decide if they want to break this protective chain and use a NK on Coffee, saving us the lynch. If NK ever fails to go through as a result of this protective chain, we have a nearly-confirmed town in Coffee.

If Coffee is scum:
We still do the above, but at some point mafia has to decide to either waste a NK (highly unlikely) or give away Coffee as scum by breaking the chain.


If we lynch Coffee now and he flips town, we lost a protective role. If he flips scum - great. But there's still value in having a scum protective role trying to maintain his cover. The longer he survives the scummier he will look. Let's wait it out and see how things play out.

Jailor?

[rob77dp]

Also, a Criminal!Politician would foil it, seems like...

[rob77dp]

Coffeeditto (3) - JonathanCrazyJ, Solaris, Gino
mathman101 (4) - iancudorinmarian, Lunaris, Submachine, rob77dp
DoubleCapitals (1) - ddevans96

Coffee - what say you to UTA's plan?

Solaris, are you game for it?

Jailor who targeted Fabian... if you're town then keep your meddling lock-and-key out of this.

[UTAlan]

1st, I must have missed how we keep me protected without bodyguard. Can you recap?

2nd, Criminal!Jailor could screw us up, blocking Town!Coffee from protecting me, me getting NK'd, then Coffee getting lynched. I don't see how Criminal!Politician would screw us up, though.

[rob77dp]

1st, I must have missed how we keep me protected without bodyguard. Can you recap?

2nd, Criminal!Jailor could screw us up, blocking Town!Coffee from protecting me, me getting NK'd, then Coffee getting lynched. I don't see how Criminal!Politician would screw us up, though.

1. Doctor on you repeatedly... Observer on you making it a 1-for-1 with whichever Criminal submits NK on you...

2. Criminal!Politician could redirect either of Solaris or Coffee, in that plan.

[rob77dp]

There are a HOST of reasons why having Doc to heal you are the preferred method... but most of them should not be shared publicly and really should be determinable by smart town players on their own.

[JonathanCrazyJ]

There are a HOST of reasons why having Doc to heal you are the preferred method... but most of them should not be shared publicly and really should be determinable by smart town players on their own.

I'm changing my vote, because UTA's plan looks solid to me. Not only is he protected, but whether Coffee is Mafia or not it forces mafia to make decisions on how they do things, which is always good. Secondly, it lets our other protective role(s) know 3 people they don't need to protect, narrowing their focus.

I'm a bit torn though, because I don't see mathman as particularly scummy, but i likely won't be on much between now and deadline, so to get the result I see as preferable it's best my vote goes there as i'm not entirely AGAINST lynching math.

Coffeeditto (2) - Solaris, Gino
mathman101 (5) - iancudorinmarian, Lunaris, Submachine, rob77dp, JonathanCrazyJ
DoubleCapitals (1) - ddevans96

[godisnowonline]

I'll follow utas plan. Not like its a death sentence for anyone in particular yet.
Coffeeditto (1) - Solaris
mathman101 (6) - iancudorinmarian, Lunaris, Submachine, rob77dp, JonathanCrazyJ, gino
DoubleCapitals (1) - ddevans96

[rob77dp]

UTA -

You would agree Criminal!Jailor royally blows the plan out of the water... if you believe Fabian is not faking his jailing (mod-spew supports that view) then what is your take on the rest of his jailing? I personally hold that it was probably Criminal!Jailor doing it _no matter what Fabian's alignment is_. I'm VERY wary of a Criminal!Jailor as that is a GIGANTIC wrench into your plan... thoughts?