Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou

[dawn to dusk]

Something I will say though, pretty sure that basing reads off past mafias is highly discouraged, and has been for 10 or so mafias. And it kind of makes me sad to see how much is being based off "He acts like this when he is scum as seen in mafia 52" or some shit like that.

Strong post as a whole. Disagree with that part:

9.   Players' actions should be motivated by this game's events solely. You may look at past mafias to determine behaviors for better reads, but keep personal affairs out of the game.

Maybe I was remembering wrong then. I'm still not entirely a fan of it being used as the leading argument to a read though.

I'm not entirely certain if this will clash with Link's read on dd, however if it doesn't, I would say dd is an Observer. As Link uses Officer 1 on dd, shows him as Observer, and deduces with probability that dd is town due to how unlikely it is for 2 Observers to both be mafia. This also explains why dd was soft-confirmed town (or whatever wording was actually used) rather than hard confirmed.

I was hard confirmed by Link using the Officer's second ability, although since this is only confirmed to me and Link, I am not hard confirmed to the game as a whole - I could in theory still be scum, be lying, and have been handed an extremely fortunate set of circumstances that my team has devised a way to take advantage of.

Why Link chose to use soft confirmation, then, I can only speculate. My best guess is he assumed mafia would pass him off as simply trying to influence town actions by pretending to be certain rather than actually being so, which is a very Link move, and then might leave him alive, either because they might assume they could play off that to misdirect, or they might find that action to be inconsequential.

As for my secondary role - I'm not Observer. I don't have an issue saying that.

In that case, it is entirely possible that you were revealed as intel, and got an intel partner to kill Link in fear of being outed. And Link saying that you were town, in fear of the adverse reaction that might come from the rest of the people (like rob) due to a potentially powerful role. This is pure completionism though. Exploring all possibilities.

[dawn to dusk]

Lun seems to be voting to protect coffee from what I can gather, and if coffee flips scum it looks terrible for her. I suppose I can use that as my voting reasoning. If we kill him we get information, and optimistically a scum.

Instead, I am saying that if he flips scum, then Lun looks scum and we could potentially get 2 scum in 2 days.
Or it could make Lun look town, because no scum in their right mind would protect another scum like this.
That's just how mafia is. Anything can be anything else depending on how you look at it.

Basically if coffee is scum Lun is either town or scum (or intel).

So what you are saying is if I flip scum Lunaris is scum or town or intel; so there is no reason to lynch me, then? Lynch a bodyguard to tell if someone else is maf, and then be unsure about it?

Fair enough point to remove my vote from you, not completely deafening to make my argument invalid

Coffeeditto (4) - rob77dp, Submachine, JonathanCrazyJ, Solaris
mathman101 (2) - iancudorinmarian, Lunaris
DoubleCapitals (1) - ddevans96

The point of that was, if you flip mafia, then further information against Lun can nail her as either hard scum or hard town depending on what it is. Much like what I think with rob.

[Submachine]

I don't fully understand. Was dd investigated by Linkcat once for sure? And do we know that he was about to get investigated for the second time for full confirmation?

The order of events might be important. IF:

1. dd was aware on Day 1 that he was checked by a Cop on Night 1,
2. suspected that he was about to get checked for primary role on Night 2,

then it would be a logical mafia move to take out the Cop before he gets his information. Similar case happened in Mafia 50, with UTAlan when he was mafia, and was aware that the cop is about to confirm him.

I would really like someone to clear me on this one.

[JonathanCrazyJ]

I don't fully understand. Was dd investigated by Linkcat once for sure? And do we know that he was about to get investigated for the second time for full confirmation?

The order of events might be important. IF:

1. dd was aware on Day 1 that he was checked by a Cop on Night 1,
2. suspected that he was about to get checked for primary role on Night 2,

then it would be a logical mafia move to take out the Cop before he gets his information. Similar case happened in Mafia 50, with UTAlan when he was mafia, and was aware that the cop is about to confirm him.

I would really like someone to clear me on this one.

No, he just used his second ability (according to dd) and confirmed him in one turn.

Ability 2 (2U): Determine someone's primary and secondary roles, but they also learn your roles as well.

[Submachine]

Coffeeditto (3) - rob77dp, JonathanCrazyJ, Solaris
mathman101 (3) - iancudorinmarian, Lunaris, Submachine
DoubleCapitals (1) - ddevans96

Rearranging my vote for multiple purposes:

• more flexibility for votes if someone has a plan (e.g: keeping the Bg alive),
• more pressure on the less active player.

[rob77dp]

dawn - I've read your recent flurry of posts/activity a couple times through and cannot solidly put my finger on one non-hedged and non-qualified opinion or read of yours in there.

/reads-one-more-time

Yeah, you basically lay down your bigpost ending it with "but everything I've said might be wrong or unoriginal or ???who knows???". You voted Coffee despite the reason being and then very quickly unvote him when the circular-reasoning of it is pointed out. Leads me to believe you were not very invested in that vote in the first place -- if so, why is now the time you're ok just tossing a bland vote out there but never earlier or not onto your 2nd top suspect (not sure at all who you think is Criminals because you haven't shared those thoughts yet)?

[Submachine]

I'm amazed by how noone has broken the tie this close to the deadline.

[godisnowonline]

Coffeeditto (4) - rob77dp, JonathanCrazyJ, Solaris, Gino
mathman101 (3) - iancudorinmarian, Lunaris, Submachine
DoubleCapitals (1) - ddevans96


Breaking up the tie for now but my vote is subject to change if we decide to have a 400 post end of day again

[UTAlan]

Coffeeditto (4) - rob77dp, JonathanCrazyJ, Solaris, Gino
mathman101 (3) - iancudorinmarian, Lunaris, Submachine
DoubleCapitals (1) - ddevans96


Breaking up the tie for now but my vote is subject to change if we decide to have a 400 post end of day again

Why Coffee? Thoughts on lynching him today instead of later so we can try to take advantage of bodyguard?

[rob77dp]

I'm amazed by how noone has broken the tie this close to the deadline.

There are something like 9 hours to deadline... that is an eternity Sub. Do you find it alignment indicative or telling, in your opinion, on any of the players that you see as not breaking the tie?

[Submachine]

Do you find it alignment indicative or telling, in your opinion, on any of the players that you see as not breaking the tie?

None of that. I'm just amazed by the change of pace compared to the first day's bloodlust.


Anyway, we know that Coffee is Bodyguard and that he actually used his role on someone. What do we know about math? You know that I'm all about role effectiveness, so the better role is getting my favor, and so far a Bg would be great to get UTA that perma-protection.

[UTAlan]

Why we shouldn't lynch Coffee today

If Coffee is town:
* On nights when I can use my ability, I'm protected.
* Solaris can redirect all targeting abilities on rob to me, protecting rob.
* Coffee can target Solaris

At some point, mafia has to decide if they want to break this protective chain and use a NK on Coffee, saving us the lynch. If NK ever fails to go through as a result of this protective chain, we have a nearly-confirmed town in Coffee.

If Coffee is scum:
We still do the above, but at some point mafia has to decide to either waste a NK (highly unlikely) or give away Coffee as scum by breaking the chain.


If we lynch Coffee now and he flips town, we lost a protective role. If he flips scum - great. But there's still value in having a scum protective role trying to maintain his cover. The longer he survives the scummier he will look. Let's wait it out and see how things play out.