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Offline Coffeeditto

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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260212#msg1260212
« Reply #1368 on: March 15, 2017, 06:44:45 am »
I'll just use everyone else's format.

Town
Coffee - Hi, I am me.
UTA - His killing of Espithel confirms him as town, as that could not have been maf killing maf as Kuro said maf can't kill eachother on purpose. Generally waits to jump aboard a train, and seeks reasoning.
Rob - Talks too much to not be town, and is actively looking for maf by questioning anyone and everyone. That being said, he likes to push on everyone maybe a little too much. Possibly INT.

Town Lean
killsda - Partakes in discussions, delayed our lynch yesterday to try and make sure we really wanted to lynch W3 instead of me or Sol. Hasn't said an awfully large amount of things, though.
Submachine - I can't really tell, but I get a town feeling from him and I think he is thinking more about how to win the game for town instead of how to be clear; something I'm not doing :V
JCJ - Approaches situations logically which translates to him being towny. I think he saying/doing what makes the most sense as opposed to what everyone else is doing.

Neutral/Too hard to tell
ddevans - I have no idea about him. I think he's slightly more town than neutral, but he could go either way. I know he's posted a lot, but I can't confidently call him either role. Possibly INT.
iancudorinmarian - I haven't seen much from him besides him liking to follow the towny peoples' calls.

Scum Lean
Lunaris - I appreciate her firmly believing I am town, and I think she is town as well because placing trust in a town-called-scum is useless for maf. However, she has a playstyle that is very scum-like: coasting a lot, not giving fully helpful answers/replies and being pretty vague with everything. Plus, not sure why she thinks rob is scum.
Solaris - He went from 'I don't give a fuck' to an aggressive pusher, almost similar to Rob. The reason why I think Sol is scum and not Rob is because of this huge shift in playstyle. Agree with him on Fabian though.
DC - Too quiet, maybe a little giddy when it comes to lynching/bandwagons. Not sure, though.

Scum
Mathman101 - Thank you for saving me! But, mathman has been nearly silent and gave no reason for saving me or much reasoning behind his actions at all. Coasting and not being very affirmative or supportive of his own choices.
Fabian - He's too quiet and riding too much to be beneficial to us even if he was town. Not sure how the jailer thing worked out, but I pretty firmly believe he is maf.
Why are you not voting mathman right now? You're scum-reading him right now AND he is your counter-wagon -- your town thought process should fairly simple I would think... that of (if you're town) -- "I know I'm town. I suspect mathman is Criminal. Other players that I think are town also suspect mathman. I will vote mathman"... what is the reason you are not voting mathman or Fabian right now?
I want to see what everyone else thinks first. Also, it's not un-towrny to wait on a vote, either; you said I should be playing to win as a group, not defend myself, so I am going to wait and see what the rest of the town decides to do before jumping on the mathman wagon, as others may have seen something towny math did that I didn't,
A little aggressive of you right there, but nice of you to join us. Which post of Link's did I miss? Also, I can find the post that led me to call you aggressive if you'd like.
Not really sure how i was aggressive?  :o I'm trying to figure out why you shouldn't be on the chopping block. You where obviously links number 1 scum as he called it out several times in the thread. So i'm not really sure why you are trying to scum read me for wanting to follow links hunch. I'm also doubly enjoying that you ignored one of his last posts before the day phase.
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Offline Coffeeditto

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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260213#msg1260213
« Reply #1369 on: March 15, 2017, 06:47:09 am »
rip my response to gino.

Not really sure how i was aggressive?  :o I'm trying to figure out why you shouldn't be on the chopping block. You where obviously links number 1 scum as he called it out several times in the thread. So i'm not really sure why you are trying to scum read me for wanting to follow links hunch. I'm also doubly enjoying that you ignored one of his last posts before the day phase.
That in and of itself is an aggressive and defense statement for a slight-scum-hunch. Anyway, what post did I ignore of Link's? Where do I say I'm scum reading you for following Link's hunch? Do you want me to find the post that led me to believe you were being overly aggressive?
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Offline rob77dp

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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260214#msg1260214
« Reply #1370 on: March 15, 2017, 06:50:44 am »
Coffee -

Can you specify which player it is not currently voting that you're waiting to read their take/opinion??
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Offline Coffeeditto

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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260215#msg1260215
« Reply #1371 on: March 15, 2017, 06:52:03 am »
ddevans, UTAlan, mathman.
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Offline rob77dp

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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260216#msg1260216
« Reply #1372 on: March 15, 2017, 06:57:58 am »
ddevans, UTAlan, mathman.
dd - fair enough, but it seems weird you're basically waiting on ONE player in the whole game to vote before you decide where to vote...

UTA - I wouldn't wait all day to see where UTA ends up voting.

math - you want to see where your scumread votes to decide where you're going to vote? 0.o
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Offline Coffeeditto

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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260217#msg1260217
« Reply #1373 on: March 15, 2017, 07:01:30 am »
dd - I'm waiting on 3 players, and dd is a confirmed town. Even if he wasn't, he is the person looking at the mechanics to figure stuff out the most in my opinion so he may find something to change everyone's views.

UTA - Why not?

math - Is this a game where we take one feeling and stick to it forever? If math proves to me that he's not scum, then I will go with a different lead. If he votes on me, sure, OMGUS, but wait and give someone a chance first, god damn.
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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260218#msg1260218
« Reply #1374 on: March 15, 2017, 07:08:44 am »
dd - I'm waiting on 3 players, and dd is a confirmed town. Even if he wasn't, he is the person looking at the mechanics to figure stuff out the most in my opinion so he may find something to change everyone's views.

UTA - Why not?

math - Is this a game where we take one feeling and stick to it forever? If math proves to me that he's not scum, then I will go with a different lead. If he votes on me, sure, OMGUS, but wait and give someone a chance first, god damn.
dd - fine.

UTA - read more carefully.

math - What are you talking about? How is math supposed to "prove to you he's not scum"?!? Give him a chance first???!? It's Day $#@!-ing 3 of this game so there is NO WAY you really mean it saying he has yet to have a chance to step up.


What it looks like to me right now, that is my current OPINION, is that you might be stalling to avoid voting your scum-partners wagon... I obviously reserve the right to review this opinion at any time and to change it as I see fit.
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Offline Coffeeditto

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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260219#msg1260219
« Reply #1375 on: March 15, 2017, 07:14:17 am »
dd - I'm waiting on 3 players, and dd is a confirmed town. Even if he wasn't, he is the person looking at the mechanics to figure stuff out the most in my opinion so he may find something to change everyone's views.

UTA - Why not?

math - Is this a game where we take one feeling and stick to it forever? If math proves to me that he's not scum, then I will go with a different lead. If he votes on me, sure, OMGUS, but wait and give someone a chance first, god damn.
dd - fine.

UTA - read more carefully.

math - What are you talking about? How is math supposed to "prove to you he's not scum"?!? Give him a chance first???!? It's Day $#@!-ing 3 of this game so there is NO WAY you really mean it saying he has yet to have a chance to step up.


What it looks like to me right now, that is my current OPINION, is that you might be stalling to avoid voting your scum-partners wagon... I obviously reserve the right to review this opinion at any time and to change it as I see fit.
math - Hi, my name is W3. I'm going to get bandwagoned on even though I'm cop. I didn't have a chance to see what's going on, so I got lynched by a bunch of people even though I'm cop.

UTA -
I just think keeping a scummy bodyguard around is preferable at this point. Again, we can always lynch him later if he doesn't clear himself, or he might get NK'd before we get to lynch him. If there are plenty of scummy targets for lynch, let's save the one that claimed bodyguard for another day.
I know his opinion; he says to go for a different lynch than me, but he hasn't commented on the mathman train in particular.
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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260220#msg1260220
« Reply #1376 on: March 15, 2017, 08:03:14 am »
that's actually an incredibly good and well reasoned reads list. I'm still reading you as scum, but I kind of want to lynch mathman first.

Quote
killsda - Partakes in discussions, delayed our lynch yesterday to try and make sure we really wanted to lynch W3 instead of me or Sol. Hasn't said an awfully large amount of things, though.

If you flip scum, kdz may be an interesting place to go. As would Luna because of her unwavering defense of you. If you are town, thank you, that list will be very helpful.

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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260222#msg1260222
« Reply #1377 on: March 15, 2017, 09:26:07 am »
Coffeeditto (5) - rob77dp, Submachine, JonathanCrazyJ, Solaris, dawn to dusk
mathman101 (2) - iancudorinmarian, Lunaris

I'm like 50% sure this is the current vote tally

I haven't been posting because after reading 24 hours (read as: 50 pages) I lose all incentive to post.



Something I will say though, pretty sure that basing reads off past mafias is highly discouraged, and has been for 10 or so mafias. And it kind of makes me sad to see how much is being based off "He acts like this when he is scum as seen in mafia 52" or some shit like that.



Either way, rob is the most volatile person to me. If I had to read him it would be null, but only because he is either hard town or hard mafia. And in some world I would probably look back on the past 100 pages to see which one I would think it is, but holy crap stop posting for like 24 hours so that people have a chance to catch up.

Please don't ask me for list reads, because that would mean I need to go back on 1200 posts to find who I think is scum, without briefing past most of the posts.

dd looks town
Rob looks volatile
Kuro looks mafia
UTA looks town
ian and Lun going against popular opinion seems kind of shifty, but that can also be a town read when looking from a blank canvas (which is what I am doing because of the aforementioned reasons)

Lun seems to be voting to protect coffee from what I can gather, and if coffee flips scum it looks terrible for her. I suppose I can use that as my voting reasoning. If we kill him we get information, and optimistically a scum. Killing a mafia N1 put us in a great position, to the extent where we can expend a vote to gather information. NOT saying that that is why I am voting on him, nor am I condoning killing a town read unless we are 100% certain it will lead to a scum dying. Instead, I am saying that if he flips scum, then Lun looks scum and we could potentially get 2 scum in 2 days.
Or it could make Lun look town, because no scum in their right mind would protect another scum like this.
That's just how mafia is. Anything can be anything else depending on how you look at it.

Basically if coffee is scum Lun is either town or scum (or intel).



I highly doubt that Hitman is scum. Scum with a point and click ability like that is too valuable. Even if suspicion is thrown on them the previous day, they would instead kill someone else as it brings LyLo (Lynch or Lose) earlier.

So here is a proposition: Hitman is Intel. Whether Intel has found each other or not is irrelevant to this. Linkcat used Officer 2 on them, and revealed that they were intel, using that ability before he thought he might die.. Scared, this intel thought to kill Linkcat, protecting themselves so that they don't get killed by being outed. Especially because if a second intel died, it would put the intel faction at an incredibly high risk of losing. Thus, they killed Link. And would have done so whether he was town read by them or not.

I'm not entirely certain if this will clash with Link's read on dd, however if it doesn't, I would say dd is an Observer. As Link uses Officer 1 on dd, shows him as Observer, and deduces with probability that dd is town due to how unlikely it is for 2 Observers to both be mafia. This also explains why dd was soft-confirmed town (or whatever wording was actually used) rather than hard confirmed.

Or I could be finding connections where there aren't

Or I could be repeating information that is already somewhere in this thread

Or dd could be the intel

Who knows

Other than Kuro

Or dd



If my above theory is correct, and dd is Observer, then it would be nice if he told us who he targeted. Because of the whole Unnamed Action scenario going on. Afaik, 2 are in play. One on Sol and one on JCJ.

Sol said this which is inaccurate:
Spoiler for Hidden:
Quote
not me, but I've a similar situation, except it's named "Monitor". I'm assuming it's either Politician 2, or Observer. Anyone confirm/deny? If anyone else has been hit by it, likely Observer. If not, likely Pol 2.

...since Politician has no such ability like that, and it would be a second Observer and first Politician. And also doesn't take into consideration a second Hitman or Doctor.
I will agree that Rescue should be taken as an ambiguous name, because of how obvious it would be if it were from a Doctor, although I wouldn't completely exclude it from thought processes.

I will await for dd's potential response before making a conclusion on that.

Spoiler for Irrelevant Stuff:
If, for whatever reason, dd does not wish to announce whether he is Observer or not I will provide him with a phrase to copy-paste, so that him not revealing his role does not get the wording analysed by anyone (if he wishes)

Quote
I do not wish to give information on my role at this point in time.

Very basic, but gets the job done

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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260223#msg1260223
« Reply #1378 on: March 15, 2017, 09:39:36 am »
Lun seems to be voting to protect coffee from what I can gather, and if coffee flips scum it looks terrible for her. I suppose I can use that as my voting reasoning. If we kill him we get information, and optimistically a scum.

Instead, I am saying that if he flips scum, then Lun looks scum and we could potentially get 2 scum in 2 days.
Or it could make Lun look town, because no scum in their right mind would protect another scum like this.
That's just how mafia is. Anything can be anything else depending on how you look at it.

Basically if coffee is scum Lun is either town or scum (or intel).
So what you are saying is if I flip scum Lunaris is scum or town or intel; so there is no reason to lynch me, then? Lynch a bodyguard to tell if someone else is maf, and then be unsure about it?
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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260225#msg1260225
« Reply #1379 on: March 15, 2017, 09:44:08 am »
I generally don't advise waiting for my vote in any game where I'm being slow with votes, such as this one.

I'm wary of lynching either Coffee or math at the moment. I'm still not scumreading math, and Coffee's bodyguard situation makes me want to keep him alive for at least one more round, see if he continues proving useful to town. I'd actually prefer lynching Sol or Sub so we get some more perspective on the d1 votes, but I don't think I have any other reasoning at the moment.

In fact, I don't have a strong scumread at the moment. I'm looking most closely for potential reads regarding: rob, iancu, Lunaris

Instead, I'd like to put pressure on DC to give some defense and townhelp. I'm not necessarily scumreading him myself at the moment, but the arguments from those who have interest me most of any players with low post counts.

Coffeeditto (5) - rob77dp, Submachine, JonathanCrazyJ, Solaris, dawn to dusk.
mathman101 (2) - iancudorinmarian, Lunaris
DoubleCapitals (1) - ddevans96

Something I will say though, pretty sure that basing reads off past mafias is highly discouraged, and has been for 10 or so mafias. And it kind of makes me sad to see how much is being based off "He acts like this when he is scum as seen in mafia 52" or some shit like that.

Strong post as a whole. Disagree with that part:

9.   Players' actions should be motivated by this game's events solely. You may look at past mafias to determine behaviors for better reads, but keep personal affairs out of the game.

I'm not entirely certain if this will clash with Link's read on dd, however if it doesn't, I would say dd is an Observer. As Link uses Officer 1 on dd, shows him as Observer, and deduces with probability that dd is town due to how unlikely it is for 2 Observers to both be mafia. This also explains why dd was soft-confirmed town (or whatever wording was actually used) rather than hard confirmed.

I was hard confirmed by Link using the Officer's second ability, although since this is only confirmed to me and Link, I am not hard confirmed to the game as a whole - I could in theory still be scum, be lying, and have been handed an extremely fortunate set of circumstances that my team has devised a way to take advantage of.

Why Link chose to use soft confirmation, then, I can only speculate. My best guess is he assumed mafia would pass him off as simply trying to influence town actions by pretending to be certain rather than actually being so, which is a very Link move, and then might leave him alive, either because they might assume they could play off that to misdirect, or they might find that action to be inconsequential.

As for my secondary role - I'm not Observer. I don't have an issue saying that.
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