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Offline rob77dp

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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260004#msg1260004
« Reply #1188 on: March 14, 2017, 02:00:33 am »
Spoiler for wallpost for several Sub inquiries a little while back:
I'm wondering why would a Jailor use Ability#2 on fabian? The ability is pointless to be used for Town, because Town benefits from a steady information flow. And even if it was an attempt to silence someone, why fabian? He wasn't posting much anyway, this just discourages him even more.

Is it possible that fabian just pretended to be jailed?
I don't think Fabian would be lying... he does not strike me as the FPS type -- unless a teammate gave him the idea (even then only a handful of players this game seem like those who would suggest it).

Now I'm EXTRA salty given how that could've been easily prevented.
I'm curious if there's more to this than just targeting someone else. Maybe personality traits or roles of teammates are related to this theoretical method of prevention? But then again, learning anything from this would require this to be a post-mortem slip of information, which is unlikely. Maybe they wanted to kill someone else, but then decided to target UTA instead, which shows that they have people who would go for obvious targets, but the people who like to be random seem to be in charge/the majority.
I've been unable to find any unique ways of using the roles in the OP for Criminals to round-about kill UTA in the night without it triggering the Refugee defense mechanism that almost-surely killed Espithel last night phase. I imagine Espi was simply giving his death-post no real thought or insight but it is possible just that Criminals discussed not going after UTA.



Good spots. I'm on record as scumreading Coffee slightly but this strengths it. - Sub, since you don't want to lynch the other three, what do you think about Coffee?
I would have been helping with this if I was awake. I had minor suspicions about him yesterday. [1]


Now that the kill happened though, I need to ask this again:

Strong disagreement. We do not want a second day of No Lynch. We get a large amount of information from all three of these primary lynch targets.
Just in advance, I want to ask something which I can reflect back upon after someone got lynched.

- What information do we learn by the lynch if we lynch a Town member?

- What information do we learn by the lynch if we lynch an Intel member?

...because from past experience, we learned absolutely nothing when the lynched person was Town even though a lot of people were like "Oh, we'll have a lot of information if we do this!". We usually only learn by killing a mafia member, or when there is a "1 out of 2 people must be evil" case.
So what did we learn? Because I learned nothing while losing someone who could have been useful later. [2]


Time to sleep. Analysis coming tomorrow. Also, bodyguard(s) should protect someone else. I'll be safe from NK tonight.
I volunteer for tribute. :silly: (if i'm being townread by most people, i would be a safe target for NK, especially because normally i wouldn't be targeted by protection, because i have less valuable inputs) [3]
1. Elaborate on your minor suspicions? Also, any reason behind you replying to dd's question despite that phase already being over with no possible lynch-impact coming from your reply?

2. Probably a lot was learned or could be learned... some of it will not be apparent until a few more day/night phases go by but here is an example:
- I would wager a somewhat high amount of internet-buck$ that the first four votes on www3 are not Intel... or at least did not Search www3 N1.
- if Sol flips and is Criminal, math looks scummy for how easily he took off his pile-on vote (bus cred?) from Sol to not-Criminal www3.
- etc.

3. What are you even getting at there??



Strong disagreement. We do not want a second day of No Lynch. We get a large amount of information from all three of these primary lynch targets.
Just in advance, I want to ask something which I can reflect back upon after someone got lynched.

- What information do we learn by the lynch if we lynch a Town member?

- What information do we learn by the lynch if we lynch an Intel member?

...because from past experience, we learned absolutely nothing when the lynched person was Town even though a lot of people were like "Oh, we'll have a lot of information if we do this!". We usually only learn by killing a mafia member, or when there is a "1 out of 2 people must be evil" case.
You have to be willing to review HOW final vote tallies ended where they ended and HOW interactions did or did _not_ take place during the day phase if townies are mislynched. Same as when a Criminal is lynched except you have to dig just a little deeper and not aim for sitting back relying on roles to do all the lifting.
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Offline Submachine

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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260005#msg1260005
« Reply #1189 on: March 14, 2017, 02:01:49 am »
It's not super likely, but more of a back of the brain thought.
this response doesn't do justice for me, you're at the top of my Crim list presently.
I realized that you wanted to think that I am scum from the beginning, and you were just looking for excuses in my responses. This is too big of an escalation for me to believe it had logical deduction behind it. You might be even worse at this than me. :P
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Offline rob77dp

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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260006#msg1260006
« Reply #1190 on: March 14, 2017, 02:02:17 am »
and it's way too far into the game to -not- have a sizable anount of reads. What are your thoughts on killsdazombies, Coffeeditto, and ddevans96?
It's just Night 2. Your point is invalid for me.

I don't trust kdz, neither Coffee. I kinda trust dd so far, but I have an open mindset for him being mafia.
I see, ok, so:
1. do you have other players you "don't trust" and is that a scum-read or ??

2. Sol has a fair point about how waffle-waffle-y those reads are -- sometimes waffle-y is just being unsure sometimes it is Criminal trying to not box themselves off of possible ML targets later _or_ avoiding linking themselves too strongly to teammates... sometimes.
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Offline rob77dp

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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260007#msg1260007
« Reply #1191 on: March 14, 2017, 02:04:09 am »
Sub, something to keep in mind is that we're all just people at a keyboard/cellular phone reading text on a forum or in PM's (role madness!) or on a TPad (Criminals!) guessing at hints of implication trying to arrive at reasoned stances and decisions of action.

--> Worse is a subjective term that at various times describes ALL of us playing this game.
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Offline rob77dp

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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - math, Link, JCJ? https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260008#msg1260008
« Reply #1192 on: March 14, 2017, 02:06:10 am »
Hey guys - any chance you're looking to put a few ideas into this thing?

It is nearing an end-of-phase time and your all reading/checking the thread but providing little-to-no input here...
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Offline Solaris

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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260009#msg1260009
« Reply #1193 on: March 14, 2017, 02:06:55 am »
Sol, do you mind elaborating on your town read on me?

sure

I remember you posting that "he feels sketchy" isn't really a solid scum tell but intuitions are good, which I wholeheartedly agree on

in agreement that good towns should be flexible

generally helpful/pro-town advice opinions in thread that are consistent with how the game progessed

if you're mafia and totally skirting under my radar with how often you're taking town PoVs on thing i commend you

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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260010#msg1260010
« Reply #1194 on: March 14, 2017, 02:08:04 am »
It's not super likely, but more of a back of the brain thought.
this response doesn't do justice for me, you're at the top of my Crim list presently.
I realized that you wanted to think that I am scum from the beginning, and you were just looking for excuses in my responses. This is too big of an escalation for me to believe it had logical deduction behind it. You might be even worse at this than me. :P
pipe down with the personal insults

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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260012#msg1260012
« Reply #1195 on: March 14, 2017, 02:17:53 am »
Spoiler for wallpost for several Sub inquiries a little while back:

I've been unable to find any unique ways of using the roles in the OP for Criminals to round-about kill UTA in the night without it triggering the Refugee defense mechanism that almost-surely killed Espithel last night phase. I imagine Espi was simply giving his death-post no real thought or insight but it is possible just that Criminals discussed not going after UTA.



Good spots. I'm on record as scumreading Coffee slightly but this strengths it. - Sub, since you don't want to lynch the other three, what do you think about Coffee?
I would have been helping with this if I was awake. I had minor suspicions about him yesterday. [1]


Now that the kill happened though, I need to ask this again:

Strong disagreement. We do not want a second day of No Lynch. We get a large amount of information from all three of these primary lynch targets.
Just in advance, I want to ask something which I can reflect back upon after someone got lynched.

- What information do we learn by the lynch if we lynch a Town member?

- What information do we learn by the lynch if we lynch an Intel member?

...because from past experience, we learned absolutely nothing when the lynched person was Town even though a lot of people were like "Oh, we'll have a lot of information if we do this!". We usually only learn by killing a mafia member, or when there is a "1 out of 2 people must be evil" case.
So what did we learn? Because I learned nothing while losing someone who could have been useful later. [2]


Time to sleep. Analysis coming tomorrow. Also, bodyguard(s) should protect someone else. I'll be safe from NK tonight.
I volunteer for tribute. :silly: (if i'm being townread by most people, i would be a safe target for NK, especially because normally i wouldn't be targeted by protection, because i have less valuable inputs) [3]
1. Elaborate on your minor suspicions? Also, any reason behind you replying to dd's question despite that phase already being over with no possible lynch-impact coming from your reply?

2. Probably a lot was learned or could be learned... some of it will not be apparent until a few more day/night phases go by but here is an example:
- I would wager a somewhat high amount of internet-buck$ that the first four votes on www3 are not Intel... or at least did not Search www3 N1.
- if Sol flips and is Criminal, math looks scummy for how easily he took off his pile-on vote (bus cred?) from Sol to not-Criminal www3.
- etc.

3. What are you even getting at there??



Strong disagreement. We do not want a second day of No Lynch. We get a large amount of information from all three of these primary lynch targets.
Just in advance, I want to ask something which I can reflect back upon after someone got lynched.

- What information do we learn by the lynch if we lynch a Town member?

- What information do we learn by the lynch if we lynch an Intel member?

...because from past experience, we learned absolutely nothing when the lynched person was Town even though a lot of people were like "Oh, we'll have a lot of information if we do this!". We usually only learn by killing a mafia member, or when there is a "1 out of 2 people must be evil" case.
You have to be willing to review HOW final vote tallies ended where they ended and HOW interactions did or did _not_ take place during the day phase if townies are mislynched. Same as when a Criminal is lynched except you have to dig just a little deeper and not aim for sitting back relying on roles to do all the lifting.

About the Coffee suspicion I mentioned in that post, I remembered thinking about less notable people who piled votes on me during Day 0. I remembered Coffee and kdz and started suspecting them both. Iirc, I thought they were jumping on the opportunity (then also jumped down just as suddenly), but now I only have faints memories and a bit more baseless suspicions. The problem is that I don't remember if I thought that before or after reading Linkcat's post about a similar topic. If it was after, then I might have been affected by Link's reasoning.

At my response to UTA, I was trying to get Doctor protection.

pipe down with the personal insults
playing this game, ughh... I'm having a hard time to get myself understood, so I'm spelling it out. I'm not good at townreading and scumreading anymore, so I'm not putting much effort in it. To your questions about my reads, those were my most legit answers I could provide, because of my negligence. You jumped to illogical conclusions and it ticked me off
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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260013#msg1260013
« Reply #1196 on: March 14, 2017, 02:21:51 am »
If Sol flips not-Criminal at some point then I think mathman is not-Criminal as well.
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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260014#msg1260014
« Reply #1197 on: March 14, 2017, 02:23:06 am »
If Sol flips not-Criminal at some point then I think mathman is not-Criminal as well.

Why?

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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260015#msg1260015
« Reply #1198 on: March 14, 2017, 02:26:17 am »
If Sol flips not-Criminal at some point then I think mathman is not-Criminal as well.

Why?
he flipped his vote off me and onto someone else when my train was one of the largest IIRC

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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260016#msg1260016
« Reply #1199 on: March 14, 2017, 02:26:35 am »
If Sol flips not-Criminal at some point then I think mathman is not-Criminal as well.

Why?
I'm glad you asked!

mathman was basically floating under the radar at EOD 1 but he popped on to drop a vote onto Solaris... I highly doubt Criminal!math comes in like that and drops an un-necessary vote if BOTH www3 (has flipped and was not-Criminal) and Sol (the counter-wagon to not-Criminal!www3 at the time) are not Criminals.
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