Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou

[rob77dp]

Coffee - I'm pressing on www3 more lately today because his reaction to interaction-turned-pressure has not had towny-vibes to me. I then went to read a game or so of his past stuff here and found a town game where he pretty blatantly was different than he is here... his answer was some kind of shaky backwards logic in my eyes. He deserves pressure right now.

(I meant that the "Rob plz" after only such a short time from you first asking is a bit of a slap in my face considering the obvious level of effort I'm putting in this game)

[Linkcat]

Let me rephrase that: Lynching without a legitimate reason is functionally the same as lynching randomly.

Show me votes on Sub or Sol at EOD that had a legitimate reason.

[rob77dp]

Let me rephrase that: Lynching without a legitimate reason is functionally the same as lynching randomly.

Show me votes on Sub or Sol at EOD that had a legitimate reason.

Quit arguing semantics about what is random and what is not random. You're wrong - random means random and the other descriptions you're using (not legitimate, without legitimate reason, etc) are not equivalent to random.

Start reading through the thread to build some reads. If you're town, relying solely on roles to try to win this game is a terrible idea and so far there are precious few players trying to use all available avenues to further town agenda.

[iancudorinmarian]

Still discussing lynch vs no-lynch?

I have no further input btw.

[dawn to dusk]

I remember why I only try in mafia when it gets to later stages. And it's not because I find it more fun then.

It's because there are 48 god damned pages.

Why is this happening.

I can't even be bothered to search through this to find a tl;dr if there is one.

So instead I searched my name to see if it came up other than ian's vote on me, and recurrences of that, and apparently I lean scum to rob oops.
I am going to try to be more active this game because Kuro mafia are great, and one of his mafias is my favourite mafia game I have ever played. Also I am bored because I didn't play mafia last time because I was taking a break because the game before I was completely inactive
But it's hard to be active when, as I said before, there are 48 pages that I can't be bothered to sift through.

tl;dr I want a tl;dr please kindly

[dawn to dusk]

If you're town, relying solely on roles to try to win this game is a terrible idea

There are far too many past mafias that disagree with this statement

[rob77dp]

If you're town, relying solely on roles to try to win this game is a terrible idea

There are far too many past mafias that disagree with this statement

Fine.

night actions

This is insufficient the majority of the time. By the time a power role has any useful information that they can share, it will either compromise their ability to gather more info in the future or it will be too late (waited too long to be able to use roles to find every mafia, power roles killed before they find the bad guys / share their findings). If we want to play without using intuition and educated guesses and reads, then let's write a program that will walk us through the mechanics without the need for talking in the thread.

[dawn to dusk]

Lynching without a legitimate reason is the same as lynching randomly. Votes were cast on people with the higher vote totals irregardless of who happened to have those votes. It's the same.

Wrong.

Also, you don't get to define "legitimate reason" for other players. You also suppose yourself to know all the motives behind the votes yesterday. You don't. Start solving and looking for scum.

TRUE random lynching is slightly less negative for town than No Lynching. There was no true random lynching occurring or on the table yesterday.

What do you classify as a non-legitimate reason? I classify it as a vote against someone with no suspicion on them, who you personally don't believe to be mafia. Most of the time this is bread, and is decided randomly. So in my opinion, I believe Link to be correct in that random lynching is the same as lynching without reason. Both of which I think are worse than no lynch for D1. Days further on I would argue the opposite, however there is little information that can be gained from lynching day 1 compared to the ways that are only from discussion.
Voting patterns can arise from an active D1, but this can be achieved without a lynch (just like this D1). 

[rob77dp]

Lynching without a legitimate reason is the same as lynching randomly. Votes were cast on people with the higher vote totals irregardless of who happened to have those votes. It's the same.

Wrong.

Also, you don't get to define "legitimate reason" for other players. You also suppose yourself to know all the motives behind the votes yesterday. You don't. Start solving and looking for scum.

TRUE random lynching is slightly less negative for town than No Lynching. There was no true random lynching occurring or on the table yesterday.

What do you classify as a non-legitimate reason? I classify it as a vote against someone with no suspicion on them, who you personally don't believe to be mafia. Most of the time this is bread, and is decided randomly. So in my opinion, I believe Link to be correct in that random lynching is the same as lynching without reason. Both of which I think are worse than no lynch for D1. Days further on I would argue the opposite, however there is little information that can be gained from lynching day 1 compared to the ways that are only from discussion.
Voting patterns can arise from an active D1, but this can be achieved without a lynch (just like this D1).

Legitimately don't care. I'm trying to figure out who is scum and who is town. Addressing what you're putting there I don't see furthering that goal so I'm ignoring it. On purpose.

[dawn to dusk]

First off, despite there being 49 pages, I doubt you can deduce the exact mafia team from just the D1/N1 posts. Secondly, admitting you are playing a personal game seems somewhat strange, since it sounds like you are trying to better yourself rather than bettering your team.

[rob77dp]

I've taken a liberty with UTA's previous posts - one a list of research and one a set of reads - and combined into a list-with-comments. I changed nothing other than cut-and-paste comments onto related player's location in his list. Also, a little additional formatting to try to help it flow and be read-able. All above the table and on the up-and-up.

Now in an easy-to-read format!
** Note that in this list, "town" means not-mafia. Other than where I explicitly mention it, I don't really know how to get a 3rd party read.

Conf Town
UTAlan - Defo a townie. Easiest read of the lot.

Town Lean
killsdazombies - Voted on Sub and gave solid reasons. Removed vote and gave good reasoning, as well. Decent town-lean.THIS is what gives you the strongest town read in your list? Meh.

Slight Town Lean
DoubleCapitals - Voted on Sub b/c of the invisi-text. As I mentioned before, posting based on emotions is either scummy or not town-beneficial. Esp when he says "whether town or scum" which implies he'd vote to have Sub lynched even if Sub was 100% confirmed town. Most likely in this case this is town-detrimental, not scummy behavior. Strangely, slight-town read.Town-detrimental == 2nd highest town-read? What?!rob77dp - Oh boy. Not sure I wanna tackle this guy. I'll give him that he's being super active even for him. He's pushing hard to avoid No Lynch. He's avoiding lynching players without solid reasons. Decent town-lean if he wasn't rob. So I'll put him slight-town-lean. {This is rob. Don't underestimate scum-rob.}I take no issue with the resulting read placement but you're all going to need to drop any sort of awe or whatever it is that comes with trying to read me. In other words don't tackle me or under/over-estimate me - play the game and if you're town read me and if you're scum well you KNOW what you're going to have to try to do to get rid of me... scum better hope they randed all the protective roles or that the town protective roles are insane and leave in the breeze tonight.Submachine - Seemingly random-votes on rob. Makes a bread-post that includes invisi-text and gets multiple people all riled up (meh). States that he isn't against No Lynch. OMGUS votes DC. Survival votes Sol. Claims a "valuable" role. Apologizes (twice) for using invisi-text. States he doesn't think Sol is scum. Moves to No Lynch. Slight-town-lean.Ok.

Very Slight Town Lean
Linkcat - rob makes a good point about Intelligence having reason to push for No Lynch. This makes me lean intelligence on Link. Not gonna vote him for that yet, though.I disagree with considering possible Intelligence aligned players as town-sided.ddevans96 - Doesn't initially vote b/c he doesn't want to throw his vote away. Adds throwaway vote. I ask him not to do that, he obliges, though with a disclaimer that he disagrees with my logic. Not much here, but I'll give him a very-very-slight-town-read based on gut feeling.Eh.Lunaris - Inactive for a while, then comes in and pushes for No Lynch. I don't get the sense that she's doing this b/c she's Intelligence. Very-slight-town-lean. Could swing back towards scum if she stays too inactive.Ok.Espithel - Voted on Sub for invisi-text, removed after Sub's apology. Pushed for reasoning on people's votes, notably on Luna's No Lynch. Very-slight-town-read.Alright.

Neutral
dawn to dusk - No posts except for 2 breadposts. Earlier in the day and I might vote for him to get him active, but don't wanna lynch him on the first day for not being active.Hmm, you managed reads on other players with a similar dearth of posts to that point in the game... bit of a ping that you used it to read other players but left dawn here.worldwideweb3 - "tuesdays and thursdays are busiest for me, so dont expect much from me today" - Expectations Exceeded. Dropped random vote, but posted about wanting a No Lynch. Pushed Espi for reasons on his vote (+1 town point). "I'm off to sleep" - lol. Moved vote to make a tie to try for No Lynch, then changed to No Lynch when he discovered that was an option. He's a hard neutral for me, which sucks because he's posted so much I wish I could lean one way or the other on him. He is playing like he did 2 mafias ago when he was scum, but in the short time he was alive last mafia...that was also how he played. He's aggressive and active, but at least this time he isn't screaming at rob (yet).That's an awful lot of comment to end up neutral-read -- note that you refer to the recently concluded mafia where www3 acted somewhat similarly (your assessment) and he died early... in a role where he was trying to get scumread to die early. I don't think it applies this game at all. Very odd that you have that much reaction to www3 so far but have him not just neutral but "hard neutral"... that isn't really a thing.godisnowonline - See: dawn to dusk.Gino posted something else after you did these lists... but I bring it up here because it was definitely strange that 20+ pages into the game he came in commenting about a player not even in the game and bearing NO relevance to advancing the game or helping town along. Suppose the true lack of posting or game-related content could be NAI and land gino neutral legitimately.Solaris - Self-voted, then disappeared. Link has a point - he has done absolutely nothing scummy. He's hardly done anything at all. Neutral read. Sympathy points for being gone while a train loaded up on him.Meh.iancudorinmarian - Nothing of substance, just a bread-post vote and a post about being against no lynch. Neutral read.It seems strange you manage a non-neutral read on Lunaris but ian lands here in neutral... not adding up to me.

Very Slight Scum Lean
fabian771 - Drops random vote, removes random vote, joins bandwagon (and was actually a deciding vote at the time). Very slight scum lean.Another one where the read seems askew from the available amount of content or interaction in the thread by fabian at the time UTA posted the lists.JonathanCrazyJ - Voted on Sol for self-voting. Sidebar about thread-only-communication. Votes Sub for using invisi-text (see: DC). Wasn't sure how to read this until he removed his vote after Sub's apology (though that also came after my vote was put on him). Neutral read, due to it not being as obvious to me that he was genuinely upset at Sub (see kdz's fake-rant last mafia). He did move his vote to Sol just for the sake of not No Lynching. Hmm. Change that to very-slight-scum read.JCJ this game and kdz previous game are not on the same continent for comparison. Seems you have him overall neutral with the scum-lean coming solely from the not-wanting-to-No Lynch vote -- but that aligns with LONG STANDING JCJ stance on that topic spanning multiple games and both alignments... how are you alignment-reading that coming from him??mathman101 - Bread(?) post about being a journalist. Maybe some breadcrumbs in there somewhere. Puts down a random vote before leaving for the day. Very-slight-scum-read. Want to give him more time to be active to get a better read.I'm pretty surprised you saw enough from mathman to land him 2nd-highest scum-read for you here... you want to give him more time but are scum-reading him while waiting? Why did dawn get top-neutral treatment for a very similar lack of content/substance on Day 0? ian too? gino? It seems odd you pick math out of the low-content crowd to be the one that receives the scum-read on it.
Slight Scum Lean
Coffeeditto - Votes on Sub without giving a reason. Notably, he could have been protecting Sol b/c this tied up the vote. Slight-scum-lean.If you think your top scum-read was protecting Sol then Sol should not be a neutral read. Why would you be thinking a scum (by your reads) was protecting anything but another scum??

[rob77dp]

First off, despite there being 49 pages, I doubt you can deduce the exact mafia team from just the D1/N1 posts. Secondly, admitting you are playing a personal game seems somewhat strange, since it sounds like you are trying to better yourself rather than bettering your team.

I don't know the scum-team yet. I have not portrayed that I know the scum team yet. I'm not playing a personal game -- I'm trying to advance my team's goals... happens that right now I know only ONE PLAYER that I know is on my team - me. Adding up your statements here is basically:

1. Rob is unsure who the scum are but is postulating who it could be.
2. Rob is acting as if he is the only one he can fully trust right now.

--> That is EXACTLY how town goes about solving and trying to win in the early game. Thanks for the convoluted town-read.