Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou

[iancudorinmarian]

WHAT RESOURCES???

We're going back to square one. Cop is too slow (using the first ability twice on the same player) or limited use (second ability only twice per game unless refreshed) and the rest of the abilities are also very situational and not likely to be of any use. (except maybe the observer)

Also, why is the night phase so long aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

[iancudorinmarian]

The previous post was @Sub btw.

[rob77dp]

I do not have as complete a reads list as usual - citing this infuriating chore of pushing back on bad-for-town play being pushed in the thread - but here is what I can offer up.

scumreads:
Link

Spoiler for Hidden:

I can't get my mind around the idea that we've gone through over 20 pages and still don't have any scumreads.

I think you're scum... or more accurately not Town.

Sub, you can move your vote to No Lynch now.

Is nobody else bothered by the fact that this man has 5 votes on him when he's made literally 2 posts since the game started?

You seriously cannot find any kind of reason to suspect someone even close to where 40% chance to lynch scum on Day 1 interests you?

I think you might be scum here -- can you point out even one past instance where you so staunchly stood up for No Lynch like this?

dawn to dusk (1) - iancudorinmarian
Solaris (3) - Solaris, JonathanCrazyJ, fabian771
Submachine (3) - DoubleCapitals, Killsdazombies, Coffeeditto,
Linkcat (1) - rob77dp
No Lynch (4) - Linkcat, worldwideweb3, Lunaris, Submachine[conditional] <-- what even IS THIS conditional stuff?? If you're absent at EOD then you're absent... I've no idea of any precedent and nothing in rules about this.

dd

Spoiler for Hidden:

I'm finding, in a re-read of EOD and night-so-far activity, that dd puts a scumvibe out there with constant focus on mechanics and putting in very little in the way of solving effort (looking for scumreads from him - found none yet). Some players maybe this is simply the best town-play they could do but for dd I expect much more. Sorrynotsorry your bar is higher dd. I think you're struggling to FOS anyone and it looks scummy to me.

Sol

Spoiler for Hidden:

@rob - Why should I vote Sol? Because he's less not-scummy than Sub?

@Link - Why should I not jump on the train against Sub? How is rob contributing to the problem by trying to do that?

Sort of yeah -- mostly, Sub's was a runaway wagon when I first lobbied for Sol to get more votes. I find the fact that basically nobody was willing to hop to Sol but piling on Sub happened without much sustained push in-the-thread to be somewhat telling. I'll have to mull over just how telling.

This is the weakest of my scumreads right now... and has been trending towards 'stale'. That is, weakening due ot nothing else supporting it occurring.

dawn

Spoiler for Hidden:

Hmmm, it feels strange... (not sure if strangely right or strangely strange) but I find myself leaning scummy for dawn given his typical M.O. is to slank the hee-haw out of the game, if not totally 0-post the whole thing, and show up late to try hard. I remember a while back, forget who with though, thinking that usually scum!dawn is more easily engaged in the game.

Bringing that meandering to point here: I am leaning scum on dawn right now given his involvement already with more than a one-line post and more than 0 posts. I hesitate to go much with it today because it feels like punishing activity -- the LAST thing I want to do.

dawn to dusk (1) - iancudorinmarian
Solaris (3) - Solaris, Submachine, rob77dp
ddevans96 (1) - fabian771
Espithel (1) - worldwideweb3
Submachine (4) - DoubleCapitals, Killsdazombies, Coffeeditto, JonathanCrazyJ
Linkcat (1) - Linkcat
mathman101 (1) - ddevans96

Towny:
JCJ / ian / DC (grouped to #1 neener neener @ www3; #2 they have similar foundations for why I'm townreading them)
UTA
Espi
Sub
...
*gulp*
& www3

[UTAlan]

Mafia does not try his best to make people focus on them.

WIFOM? By your logic mafia should do it so that they will be seen as town and not lynched.

I see your point, but just being active and drawing attention to yourself doesn't make you town-lean. It can help when combined with other things, but not enough on its own.

[rob77dp]

Your plan sounds like "Hey, let's just wait and maybe we'll get lucky in like day 5 and a mafia will do a mistake".

My plan actually sounds like:

"Let's wait and use all our resources to gather intel. Use that intel to have factual clues and not scumtells (which don't even work anyway*), which we can use to start focused accusations instead of random ones."

*The proof that scumtells do not work: you still think i am mafia, even though I'm trying my damndest to make people listen to my suggestions. Mafia does not try his best to make people focus on them.
*The reason why your scumtells do not work: unable to differentiate unusual gameplay from mafia gameplay. You make my point stronger:

I doubt you're town. if you are, you're a pretty bad town, just like www3.

And I also have proof that you tend to call someone mafia, just because of different opinions.

Part of this also goes to anyone who firmly believes I'm scummy. Many of my current accusitors were PROVEN to be wrong the last time, and they ARE wrong this time too.

Sub, it would truly be a shame if you really think scum cannot be found by in-thread interaction outside of roles/abilities. Scumtells are TELLS not FACTS for a reason - they are not always right. The use of them is per each player's taste but should be utilized or employed in a way the user believes furthers their win-con (town - to eliminate criminals; not-town - to eliminate town). Attempting to categorically refute that scumtells outside of mechanical ability use outting them is simply mindblowing to me.

night actions

This is insufficient the majority of the time. By the time a power role has any useful information that they can share, it will either compromise their ability to gather more info in the future or it will be too late (waited too long to be able to use roles to find every mafia, power roles killed before they find the bad guys / share their findings). If we want to play without using intuition and educated guesses and reads, then let's write a program that will walk us through the mechanics without the need for talking in the thread.

[ddevans96]

Mechanics are important. Also I'm reasonably sure I didn't publicly scumread until D2 in my last mafia attempt, at which point I started playing hardball.

You want FoS from me, though? Medium FoS on Link. Strong FoS on [iancu/jcj/rob/Sub/www3] - there is 99% at least one scum in that group. Weak FoS on Lunaris and Coffee.

Do you want anything more detailed?

But i like dd (mostly because i agree with quite a bit of what he says ).

Appreciated. Nice to be on the same side (for the moment, of course) after our play against each other in sky's mafia. Gained a lot of respect for your play then.

"Let's wait and use all our resources to gather intel. Use that intel to have factual clues and not scumtells (which don't even work anyway*), which we can use to start focused accusations instead of random ones."

I'd like to amend this:

Use every resource available to gather intel. Use that intel to gain facts, which we can use to change arbitrary scumtells into focused ones

I think this is a good compromise between several of the viewpoints presented so far, so I'll be playing with this vision in mind.

I see your point, but just being active and drawing attention to yourself doesn't make you town-lean. It can help when combined with other things, but not enough on its own.

Emphasizing this because it's very important. In general, combining intuition with reads and scumtells is important.

[JonathanCrazyJ]

I should say, I'm reading sub as over-excited town rather than scum, though my thoughts on that are occasionally flip flopping.

interesting, dd, I missed a couple of pages and didn't realize rob mentioned vigilante shooting first. increasingly I am drawn to look closely at rob's posts, especially since he's reading dd as scummy when I don't see what he is drawing on. Yes, dd disagrees with us about FD NL, but he's the first one to give an actual valid reason for his point of view.

I actually wouldn't be surprised if none of those involved in this early fracas are mafia. It's exactly the sort of argument that scum love to let roll on without really commenting. Ofc, I could be completely wrong, but we should be wary of having our focus too narrow. In my experience, these kinds of early game scum read chains are often a case of paranoid townsfolk.

[rob77dp]

1. What has Link done to get scumread from you since the point where you voted No Lynch?

2. Basic math of 7/17 * (5 players) = 2+ so not sure you're really saying anything there.

3. You've nowhere hinted at anything about Luna / Coffee. Explain that FOS please. (It sure looks like a couple of LHF in your basket there)

Mechanics are important. Also I'm reasonably sure I didn't publicly scumread until D2 in my last mafia attempt, at which point I started playing hardball.

You want FoS from me, though? [1]Medium FoS on Link. [2]Strong FoS on [iancu/jcj/rob/Sub/www3] - there is 99% at least one scum in that group. [3]Weak FoS on Lunaris and Coffee.

Do you want anything more detailed?

But i like dd (mostly because i agree with quite a bit of what he says ).

Appreciated. Nice to be on the same side (for the moment, of course) after our play against each other in sky's mafia. Gained a lot of respect for your play then.

"Let's wait and use all our resources to gather intel. Use that intel to have factual clues and not scumtells (which don't even work anyway*), which we can use to start focused accusations instead of random ones."

I'd like to amend this:

Use every resource available to gather intel. Use that intel to gain facts, which we can use to change arbitrary scumtells into focused ones

I think this is a good compromise between several of the viewpoints presented so far, so I'll be playing with this vision in mind.

I see your point, but just being active and drawing attention to yourself doesn't make you town-lean. It can help when combined with other things, but not enough on its own.

Emphasizing this because it's very important. In general, combining intuition with reads and scumtells is important.

[rob77dp]

JCJ - please please PLEASE re-read my whole game so far. You wolfed with me in a pretty easy sweep several games ago -- I seriously doubt you think I'm playing similarly here.

Sidenote: I have a pretty important question in to Kuro right now so I'll be possibly unveiling some plan ideas once I get a response to that. Meantime, expect lots of in-the-moment interaction from me when I can.

[rob77dp]

This night phase would be SO much more useful right now if we had lynched Day 0. Instead, we languish in the same tired arguments with minimal additional input while Criminals plan and plot. Not enjoying that no lynch -- I'll keep harping on it too. Prepare to get tired of hearing me rail against 'FD' no lynches.

[rob77dp]

* kdz being so high up your list is baffling.
* fabian in your scumpile is similarly bafflng.
* That is a big section on www3 (biggest of them all?) to land on neutral in your list... ??

Spoiler for UTA's reasonings post:

Rob is leaving, so time for a reads list!

dawn to dusk - No posts except for 2 breadposts. Earlier in the day and I might vote for him to get him active, but don't wanna lynch him on the first day for not being active.
Linkcat - rob makes a good point about Intelligence having reason to push for No Lynch. This makes me lean intelligence on Link. Not gonna vote him for that yet, though.
fabian771 - Drops random vote, removes random vote, joins bandwagon (and was actually a deciding vote at the time). Very slight scum lean.
worldwideweb3 - "tuesdays and thursdays are busiest for me, so dont expect much from me today" - Expectations Exceeded. Dropped random vote, but posted about wanting a No Lynch. Pushed Espi for reasons on his vote (+1 town point). "I'm off to sleep" - lol. Moved vote to make a tie to try for No Lynch, then changed to No Lynch when he discovered that was an option. He's a hard neutral for me, which sucks because he's posted so much I wish I could lean one way or the other on him. He is playing like he did 2 mafias ago when he was scum, but in the short time he was alive last mafia...that was also how he played. He's aggressive and active, but at least this time he isn't screaming at rob (yet).
UTAlan - Defo a townie. Easiest read of the lot.
killsdazombies - Voted on Sub and gave solid reasons. Removed vote and gave good reasoning, as well. Decent town-lean.
godisnowonline - See: dawn to dusk.
Solaris - Self-voted, then disappeared. Link has a point - he has done absolutely nothing scummy. He's hardly done anything at all. Neutral read. Sympathy points for being gone while a train loaded up on him.
DoubleCapitals - Voted on Sub b/c of the invisi-text. As I mentioned before, posting based on emotions is either scummy or not town-beneficial. Esp when he says "whether town or scum" which implies he'd vote to have Sub lynched even if Sub was 100% confirmed town. Most likely in this case this is town-detrimental, not scummy behavior. Strangely, slight-town read.
JonathanCrazyJ - Voted on Sol for self-voting. Sidebar about thread-only-communication. Votes Sub for using invisi-text (see: DC). Wasn't sure how to read this until he removed his vote after Sub's apology (though that also came after my vote was put on him). Neutral read, due to it not being as obvious to me that he was genuinely upset at Sub (see kdz's fake-rant last mafia). He did move his vote to Sol just for the sake of not No Lynching. Hmm. Change that to very-slight-scum read.
ddevans96 - Doesn't initially vote b/c he doesn't want to throw his vote away. Adds throwaway vote. I ask him not to do that, he obliges, though with a disclaimer that he disagrees with my logic. Not much here, but I'll give him a very-very-slight-town-read based on gut feeling.
rob77dp - Oh boy. Not sure I wanna tackle this guy. I'll give him that he's being super active even for him. He's pushing hard to avoid No Lynch. He's avoiding lynching players without solid reasons. Decent town-lean if he wasn't rob. So I'll put him slight-town-lean*.
iancudorinmarian - Nothing of substance, just a bread-post vote and a post about being against no lynch. Neutral read.
Submachine - Seemingly random-votes on rob. Makes a bread-post that includes invisi-text and gets multiple people all riled up (meh). States that he isn't against No Lynch. OMGUS votes DC. Survival votes Sol. Claims a "valuable" role. Apologizes (twice) for using invisi-text. States he doesn't think Sol is scum. Moves to No Lynch. Slight-town-lean.
Lunaris - Inactive for a while, then comes in and pushes for No Lynch. I don't get the sense that she's doing this b/c she's Intelligence. Very-slight-town-lean. Could swing back towards scum if she stays too inactive.

Getting tired, so gonna skim over these last few.

Espithel - Voted on Sub for invisi-text, removed after Sub's apology. Pushed for reasoning on people's votes, notably on Luna's No Lynch. Very-slight-town-read.
Coffeeditto - Votes on Sub without giving a reason. Notably, he could have been protecting Sol b/c this tied up the vote. Slight-scum-lean.
mathman101 - Bread(?) post about being a journalist. Maybe some breadcrumbs in there somewhere. Puts down a random vote before leaving for the day. Very-slight-scum-read. Want to give him more time to be active to get a better read.

* This is rob. Don't underestimate scum-rob.
** Note that in this list, "town" means not-mafia. Other than where I explicitly mention it, I don't really know how to get a 3rd party read.

As long as this is, and trying to rush it out before EOD, I'm sure I'll have at least one EBWOP incoming...

Spoiler for UTA's organized reads list:

Now in an easy-to-read format!

Conf Town
UTAlan

Town Lean
killsdazombies

Slight Town Lean
DoubleCapitals
rob77dp
Submachine

Very Slight Town Lean
Linkcat
ddevans96
Lunaris
Espithel

Neutral
dawn to dusk
worldwideweb3
godisnowonline
Solaris
iancudorinmarian

Very Slight Scum Lean
fabian771
JonathanCrazyJ
mathman101

Slight Scum Lean
Coffeeditto

[ddevans96]

This is my favorite post in this mafia so far (gameplay related, at least):

I should say, I'm reading sub as over-excited town rather than scum, though my thoughts on that are occasionally flip flopping.

I agree with this, which is largely why I've been playing in support of him. If I'm not explicitly leading town (which I'm not this game), I like to soften the strongest viewpoints so they don't get dwelled on, at the expense of the bigger picture.

interesting, dd, I missed a couple of pages and didn't realize rob mentioned vigilante shooting first. increasingly I am drawn to look closely at rob's posts, especially since he's reading dd as scummy when I don't see what he is drawing on. Yes, dd disagrees with us about FD NL, but he's the first one to give an actual valid reason for his point of view.

I understand why rob is scumreading me, and I'm eager to see how that read develops over the course of the game. He's neutral to me at the moment but I'm agreed with looking closer at his posts.

I actually wouldn't be surprised if none of those involved in this early fracas are mafia. It's exactly the sort of argument that scum love to let roll on without really commenting. Ofc, I could be completely wrong, but we should be wary of having our focus too narrow. In my experience, these kinds of early game scum read chains are often a case of paranoid townsfolk.

For sure, I also wouldn't be surprised if none of the group I listed was scum. I'm currently inclined to think that's the case but I'm not focusing on it at present. I'd definitely. like it to be remembered if several of them are alive in the end-game, however.

Not being narrow is extremely important, agreed. Ties back to my first point.