Pretty sure intelligence can win without town winning. That means if we go on with the "no lynch" nonsense, we are going to lose to intelligence rather than criminals.
Even so, with 4/17, we're at a solid 23%, which is almost 1 in 4. If that's not good enough for you guys, then I don't know. We can't wait until the ratio gets to 1 in 3, it will be too late by then.
There's no 'going on' with it or 'waiting'. No-lynching after the first day isn't going to happen (barring MyLo), literally no one will support it. It's only on the first day that NL is even viable.
This is a very good point, www3. However, do consider that lynching Intell players DOES NOT HARM TOWN. Therefore daytime lynch preference is to nail a 4/17 scum _but_ not at the exclusion of the chances it hits Intell player. 7/17 is still the town chance to not hit town (neutral-or-better result, generally speaking); 4/17 is the chance to hit scum (positive result); 10/17 is the chance to hit town (negative result). Those chances to hit not-a-town improve _only_when_town_odds_of_winning_go_down - that is, if you want to wait to lynch somebody until town has improved odds of hitting a scum then you're advocating to wait until town is in a more dire situation than the situation was when the game started.
Again, where are you getting waiting from? This is and has only ever been a first-day thing.
Also town odds go down the most with a FD (first-day...I'm tired of typing it out) town lynch+NK, which is the most likely scenario with a FD lynch. Yeah, I recognize Intelligence exists here...but since we should be attempting to get on their good side anyways that's not of concern to me.
Why even mention vigilante shooting? saying "IF you do this, do it like this" validates the idea of doing it at all, which is a terrible idea
Really, I'd say rob 'validated' it first with a couple of his comments, and Sub is just expanding on it (wisely, I think).
-rare dd triple post-
And in regards to letting mafia/Intelligence make the first move - sometimes it's better to go second. In the case of mafia, if the lynch happens first mafia can then play off that lynch and use NK to frame/push/mislead, while if the NK happens first, although they can still do this with discussion, it's generally not as powerful as with a lynch, because the lynch is the strongest thing in the game.
In other words, I find there to be plenty of information from both no-lynch and lynch in most day start games, which is why I no longer always have a preference, hence my post earlier.
1. What? I don't follow the logic that led you to the conclusion that mafia can spin mislynches to frame other players for follow-up ML's rather than having to work harder to frame NK's for follow-up ML's. That doesn't make sense to me.
2. OK - so what was gleaned from the No Lynch on Day 0? All I have is the posts in the thread available to me to read. Which I did while I was playing Day 0. There is no more information available now than on Day 0. If we lynched a player that was in some way scummier or read as scummier than others from Day 0 posts and activity then I would be able to analyze the wagon, counter-wagon(s), and how that player had acted/posted during Day 0. Instead, 4 players didn't want to lynch anybody so here we sit just as if it was still Day 0 in so far as town having information while scum are plotting kill on a not-scum player.
1) It's not really a 'rather' than thing, scum should be attempting to do both. But a lynch is 'harder', so to speak, than just discussion. Without a FD lynch, it means scum's first NK has less value, because they're getting one kill out of the round than (most) likely two and they can't combine the lynch and the NK to create false scumtells. And that's really what scum should be doing, manipulating information as much as possible. I see value in lessening an opportunity for them to do that.
It's just a game of numbers, like most of mafia. This is just implementation of logic that has won me games as scum.
2) Yes, with NL, you have slightly less information - with the flipside of not losing town FD. There isn't a right or wrong answer to whether FD no-lynch should happen or not. Mafia is probably the least black-and-white game in existence, after all.
And that information isn't static, remember. All of that is still there, but it can (and will) be built on and twisted repeatedly throughout the course of the game. If someone changes their personality or playstyle from there it is extremely notable, not to mention straight-up contradiction is always possible.
As for not wanting to put up a throwaway vote, maybe I wasn't clear, but I didn't want to do so that early in the phase. I was comfortable doing so later in the phase, but I really had no strong preference, so like I said above I removed it when you asked.
This blue highlighted portion is pinging me.
* Are you defending throwaway-voting later in a day-phase ??
* Also, how do you know it wasn't scum!UTA asking you to remove your vote from a bro? Your ease of acquiescence sits uneasy with me.
During a FD lynch, when there's really no angle I prefer taking? No, I don't have an issue with a throwaway vote in that situation, and I don't have an issue with 'acquiescing' to another player. Any other situation? Absolutely not, on both counts.
I call b/s. Lynching Intell player does not harm town. "Waste of a lynch"? We lynched NOBODY yesterday - no bigger waste of a day phase out of the gate than to no lynch. Get out with this angle, www3.
I'd say the biggest waste is lynching town but it is clear we don't agree on that.
If we wait until that point it will be too late. To rob's point, how are we supposed to get to 60% certainty without lynching someone and using the info we get from the result? (For example, who pushed a lynch on them? Who did they defend or accuse? etc.)
@rob - thoughts on my reads list? What's your read on me (since the last time you mentioned your thoughts on me was before I started posting yesterday)?
Again, we don't wait, this only ever happens with the first lynch. After that, even if we aren't at 60% (or whatever threshold is desired), we lynch.
Noting iancu's strong play and appeal to emotion. Not as a scumread but I'm monitoring it. Something about it is striking my curiosity and I don't know what.
