Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou

[Submachine]

BG is not required in order for UTA to be protected. I've covered that previously and believe that saving BG _only_ because of that _if_ we otherwise think Coffee scummy is a bad reason to not lynch him (of course, if you think he is town then that is different, but you're using this "we need the BG" angle).

We don't NEED a BG to keep UTA protected, but as long as we HAVE a bg around, we have +1 person protected during each night.

UTA only needs protection on every second night, so on odd nights, both the BG and the Doctor can heal different people.
For someone to be protected by BG, their role is disabled for that night, but UTA has no ability on even nights, which makes him a perfect Bg candidate.
Also, math and Coffee has equal chances to flip mafia*, so as long as they are both Schrödinger Cats, the only difference between them is role and activity, which Coffee wins both at the moment.


*the marked sentence does not consider scumreads, because both sides are hard to read, even though Coffee does have a bit more scummy vibes to him. These vibes are just not strong enough to make a relevant difference to me

[Submachine]

we have +1 person protected during each night.

I need to revise what I wrote, because I accidently thought Bg is ER.

[Submachine]

UTA -

You would agree Criminal!Jailor royally blows the plan out of the water... if you believe Fabian is not faking his jailing (mod-spew supports that view) then what is your take on the rest of his jailing? I personally hold that it was probably Criminal!Jailor doing it _no matter what Fabian's alignment is_. I'm VERY wary of a Criminal!Jailor as that is a GIGANTIC wrench into your plan... thoughts?

Can Solaris help with that? Or any other role?

[UTAlan]

UTA -

You would agree Criminal!Jailor royally blows the plan out of the water... if you believe Fabian is not faking his jailing (mod-spew supports that view) then what is your take on the rest of his jailing? I personally hold that it was probably Criminal!Jailor doing it _no matter what Fabian's alignment is_. I'm VERY wary of a Criminal!Jailor as that is a GIGANTIC wrench into your plan... thoughts?

Looking things over, yeah this is kinda bad. Having BG protect me and be able to be jailed means we don't get a read on Coffee if I get NK'd - which defeats the purpose. If we're going to risk leaving Coffee alive for now, and use his ability (risking my life), I at least want to be able to get solid info out of my (potential) death.

Having an observer watching me on those nights could help, yes? If Coffee gets jailed and then I get NK'd, the observer will know who NK'd me? Won't give us a read on Coffee, but at least we use the setup to our advantage.

[rob77dp]

UTA -

You would agree Criminal!Jailor royally blows the plan out of the water... if you believe Fabian is not faking his jailing (mod-spew supports that view) then what is your take on the rest of his jailing? I personally hold that it was probably Criminal!Jailor doing it _no matter what Fabian's alignment is_. I'm VERY wary of a Criminal!Jailor as that is a GIGANTIC wrench into your plan... thoughts?

Can Solaris help with that? Or any other role?

If a single most-likely point of failure or interruption can be identified then an Observer could be set on that person/player using Ability 2 to see what Criminal was interrupting the scheme at that failure point. I don't think we have a plan that is that level of nearly-bulletproof though...

[UTAlan]

Even Nights

- UTAlan uses Refugee Ability 1 (self-protect, no voting next day)
- Solaris uses Politician Ability 1, targets rob*->UTAlan
- Doctor uses Ability 1 on Solaris

Odd Nights

- Coffeeditto uses Bodyguard Ability 1 on UTAlan
- Observer uses Ability 2 on UTAlan
- Doctor uses Ability 1 on rob*


Potential Pitfalls

- As of now, I'm the only confirmed townie. This plan relies on protecting unconfirmed individuals. Not necessarily bad, but could subconsciously be providing town feels for rob* and Solaris since they are being protected.
- This assumes we have a town Doctor and a town Observer (which are not confirmed) and that even if we do, they silently go along with the plan.
- If everyone goes along with the plan, Jailor can't do anything to hurt us on even nights (unless they target randomly and happen to hit the doctor). On odd nights, Jailor can hit Coffee and leave me vulnerable to NK, but Observer will see who targeted me.

Anything I'm missing?


* Note that rob can be replaced with just about anyone in the above plan, except Solaris, Coffee, and me.

[UTAlan]

** rob could actually be replaced with Coffee on even nights (if we wanted to for some reason) and with Solaris on odd nights. (Just wanted to clarify.)

[JonathanCrazyJ]

i sort of like it, but that's tying up a lot of protective roles, publicly. Wouldn't mafia then be able to essentially lynch outside that group with very little chance of interruption? unsure whether that is a good thing or not

[UTAlan]

I assume you mean NK. Yeah, definitely a down side. Might be a net-positive, might not.

Another option is to just put Observer and Coffee on me on Odd nights and let Dr do what he thinks is best.

[UTAlan]

Same w/ Politician. Redirect un-publicized target to me on Even Nights to protect them.

[Submachine]

i sort of like it, but that's tying up a lot of protective roles, publicly. Wouldn't mafia then be able to essentially lynch outside that group with very little chance of interruption? unsure whether that is a good thing or not

If we could keep up such a triangle until late-game, then the nightkill would be eventually forced to hit someone who town suspects to be maf or is not active enough. If they start hitting less active people while a relatively good and unprotected player remains alive, that might also be a clue (it means that mafia has a good roleplayer who noone suspected so far).

That is, if we both have all the required roles and none of the unprotected supports are sniped down. (the plan doesn't grant protection for the Doc/Observer)

[rob77dp]

This next upcoming Night is odd or even?