Elements Mafia 67 - by fabian771

[UTAlan]

Still haven't had a chance to go back and re-read the whole thread. Gonna try to do that today. My take so far:

I agree that Ryli or Solaris are unconverted-wolf. I don't have a read on Ryli due to lack of content and Solaris could go either way. He's either being defensive as wolf and trying to save his hide, or he's genuinely vanilla town and is frustrated that town might lose if he gets lynched. So... leaving my vote off for now.

@Ryli - Why don't you think there is a convert yet? If you were mafia, why would you have waited this long to use it? If you're town, why should I vote for Solaris (given that I don't know you're town)?

[Ryli]

Better chance to steal a good role later, and we haven't put the pressure on them before now means they haven't had to choose. If they haven't already, they'll get someone tonight.

[Ryli]

If the converter wolf came under pressure, he could have cleared himself as town by deflecting to the other wolf, then make their numbers 2 again.

[UTAlan]

My analysis:

Spoiler for Ryli:

Not much to work with here.

Hitting a Wild Kid's civ target also has us 4 down, and a 3rd wolf present by Day 2. Looks bad no matter how we slice things.

Looks townie enough. Except for this:

I don't think we have a convert yet.

Why changing his mind on when the conversion takes place? If he's mafia, it helps to try to convince town that there are fewer bad guys than there actually are. If he's town, I don't get why he thought it would happen by Day 2, but now he thinks it hasn't happened yet.

I think I may be one of the Lovers.

Don't take too much from that though, I'm probably wrong.

Probably nothing. He specifically said don't take too much from it. But with nothing else to go on, I gotta try to read this. Obviously he doesn't know who got hit by cupid. But why say this? And in his next post he ties himself to gino. If he's town, this is probably just a breadpost. If he's mafia, he might be tying himself to someone that is currently perceived as town (whether that's actually the case or not, I have no idea b/c I haven't evaluated gino closely) in an attempt to create a fear of lynching him.

...and that's all I got on him. Lack of posts doesn't really help his case, since not getting a read this late in the game changes my read to be slightly scummier than otherwise.

Spoiler for Solaris:

A lot more posts to work with here.

this games kinda dumb now tbh, all civ roles are guaranteed to be in, Angel is useless... why arent all these documented? too many things are off book

This is the weirdest post. As town, I'd think he would take note of this and mention it afterwards, but run with the advantage while he has it. Maybe he has more sportsmanship than that, but it's hard not to read this as slightly scummy.

killsdazombies {1} - rob77dp
Linkcat {1} - Solaris

I know your gambit so I'll go along with it

This reads as town to me. He believes Link is VI and lynching him will get town a conf-civ. Not much reason to push for this as mafia, esp this early in the game when nobody has any good reads on the wolves, so it's not a protection vote.

killsdazombies (1) - rob77dp
Linkcat (1) - ji412jo
antiaverage (3) - UTAlan, Linkcat, Solaris

Makes enough sense for me go vote along with it, but I'm still weary of you. Expect suspicions if he's town.

This one's weird. He was going along with Link's plan to get confirmed, and now he's suspicious of Link being mafia for pushing a lynch on someone else? He later recants this:

Spoiler for Hidden:

in hindsight you had no way of knowing he was Sorc short of reading reaaaally deep, and I didn't know either, just kneejerk ARRR HE KILLED OUR HOPES AND DREAMS

thoughts everyone?

...so it might not have been anything, but it did stand out to me as weird, if not scummy.

nah I agree with the w3 role, he's playing too offensive to be a towny with a role that's useful, potential angel? regardless if we push a lynch  i think we'd get some useful info

read like a book

Fasho was a good read. Not sure if this leans my read in one direction or the other, b/c mafia has nothing to gain or lose by putting out that prediction, but again, worth noting.

So at this point, I have a (very-)slightly-scum-leaning Ryli and a Solaris who is all over the place. Gonna think on this some more before voting, as I don't feel that strongly about either of them and with the game on the line, I don't want to screw this up.

[UTAlan]

Wait. So currently we have:

rob, Link, gino, and myself as 100% (due to no counter-claims) started-as-town (conversions not accounted for).
Solaris and Ryli each claimed VT, so 100% one of them is (non-converted) mafia and the other is town.

Doesn't this mean that kdz is 100% (non-converted) mafia? If this is Lynch or Lose, why take a 50% chance on those two when we can do that again next round and try to get more info between now and then?

Solaris (2) - rob77dp, Ryli
UTAlan (1) - Linkcat
Ryli (1) - Solaris
killsdazombies (1) - UTAlan

[UTAlan]

As a minor note that I don't want to forget - I find it strange that rob ignored this or didn't figure it out himself sooner. Will have to consider that if we get past kdz and Solaris/Ryli and are hunting for the converted wolf.

[Ryli]

My thoughts on Night 0 conversion were based on Angel auto ending game and Wild Kid being in the game. Chance to convert Angel and avoid his lynch. Wild Kid allowing them a walkover win starting the game at 4 Wolves to 5 Civs on a lucky hit.

[Solaris]

quit mentioning wild kid it's not even in the game

[Solaris]

I mean, right now only ONE other player has followed my vote onto you and that one should be obviously not-sheeping-me because it is Ryli the other VT-claimant voting you the counterclaimant.

this is wrong, I had 2 votes on me before I even woke up on that day

http://elementscommunity.org/forum/forum-games/elements-mafia-67-by-fabian771/msg1257540/#msg1257540

it's a sheep, not a vote because a counterclaim

[Ryli]

I thought Wild Kid was in when I made a post I've just been called out on. The fact that WK is not in game doesn't change that.

I was willing to move my vote before you claimed VT, but I'm not backing down from your challenge.

[Ryli]

Howl all you want, kdz isn't coming to save you. You're all lone wolves.

[rob77dp]

I am confident wolves already used conversion BBWW ability because saving it risks that wolf dying without using it. If they haven't used it yet well that much easier because if we hit a wolf with today's lynch (seems likely and it paramount for town to win) it is 50/50 we hit the BBWW without the ability being used!

UTA - are you willing to lay down your Hunter-life for town benefit?

I have an idea but it is predicated on the idea we either hit the BBWW today _or_ the conversion has already happened...