Elements Mafia 63 - by skyironsword

[iancudorinmarian]

@UTA, I skipped like 15 pages. I didn't know what was going on and didn't really care tbh.

That vote was simply a random one.

I also know nothing more than I knew D1, so no, I wouldn't really change it.

[rob77dp]

First thing is this - I 2nd UTA's calling out of kirby/danil/fabian/math for very very low activity levels... Please contribute or check-in eh?

Second is this - Can you explain why you chose that list of four players to call out, UTA?

rob - What are your thoughts on Ryli? Since you said d2d/RR are not likely to be scum/scum, which do you think is more likely to be mafia and why? Also, I like your optimism, but I'm not gonna get my hopes up. Plan for the worst, hope for the best

Sola - Despite your dislike for Dema's persona (or whatever you wanna call it), what is your read on him, given D1 actions and how the vote played out? What are your thoughts on w3?

ian - You voted on Luna D1, apparently as part of the 1-vote chain that started early D1. Do you have any reads on Luna? If not, why did you leave your vote there? If you could go back and change your D1 vote (knowing what you know now), where would you put it and why?

kirby/danil/fabian/math - Do you still exist? Do you have any thoughts/reads you can contribute?

UT:

Spoiler for "What are your thoughts on Ryli?" -->My thoughts on Ryli are admittedly limited but summed up mostly by a previous post I made:

here.

Ryli, what do you make of all this mess?

I will not be making any input on this til we have a Nightkill victim.

I think www3 has good reason to question you here - what can you offer as your thought process and reason for choosing to state your planned lack-of-input as implied by your statement here?

I'm still optimistic there will be NO NK victim. I'm optimistic mafia will forget or otherwise blunder the choice or that a protective role will succeed or something. Now, surely I do not expect everybody to be so optimistic but I would and am questioning what kind of motive would be behind publicly proclaiming you will not be interactive (a  very good town trait, usually) during a game phase.

Spoiler for "Since you said d2d/RR are not likely to be scum/scum, which do you think is more likely to be mafia and why?" --> dawn but...:

I currently would lean every so slightly scummy on RR and "regular" slight-scum lean on dawn at the moment.

I'd prefer to wait until a bit later in the night to see more feedback on current goings-on before I follow up with WHY I picked out dawn from that duo in response to you question, UTA.

Spoiler for "Plan for the worst, hope for the best" --> Yep,:

which is basically publicly not go around in a 'worst case mindset' while privately lining up ideas for action should worst case happen.

[Solaris]

@UTA:

Dema: Silly town is likely. I think he's intentionally not playing well to avoid mafia NK.

ww3: Scumlean merely because harsh reactions to everything

[rob77dp]

* rob77dp does some assisting of Lc in Linkcat's investigation attempts (hopefully genuinely for town and not just to 'play along')

@Submachine:
I have not seen you address this inquiry from Linkcat. You've made a few other posts in here and other places - could you take a moment at your earliest convenience to respond?

I'm just going to pretend that didn't happen.

Sub, tell me what you think about Ryli.

(I have selected this out of what is probably a sea of unanswered attempts to interact this game because I share a desire to read Sub's response to what Linkcat has asked.)

[UTAlan]

Second is this - Can you explain why you chose that list of four players to call out, UTA?

Fewest posts in the thread. I kinda arbitrarily decided on 4. Could have left off math or included Luna, but I don't recall seeing anything (useful) from math and I do recall seeing posts from Luna (though that was mostly b/c she was a possible lynch target).

[andretimpa]

I'm optimistic mafia will forget or otherwise blunder the choice or that a protective role will succeed or something.

Wouldn't using Mango at such early point more likely kill someone than protecting them (because of Strawberry Soda)? Granted it could kill a mafia member, but that's not the most likely scenario. (mango RNG'ing if it uses or not the skill could help us make soda waste some charges)

Also, why isnt sub talking? doesnt he usually talk a lot?

He's actually posting good ideas that are not 100% obvious (plans > bread)

As for current night's plans, can anyone think of a way to get the Orange targeted with a non-lethal and non-blocking ability without letting the mafia know who the Orange is?

Haha, what if we investigate Linkcat and ask Cherry not to use his ability yet? Just imagine. If Linkcat's town, we'll make the mafia kill him, thus making them waste a NK. If he's mafia though, we'll just explodonate him and waste nothing. Think about it.

[killsdazombies]

@rob Beige: I usually try to agree with dema on some point he makes or something, since i typically like dema and how he plays. He often offers decent ideas, and acts in the towns interest, being close to him is naturally a beneficial thing for anyone in any role. this is not the case this game however, imo.


and Teal: I mean that /all/ day 1 reads are baloney, i didn't mean yours specifically, I'm sorry I dont mean to offend youre usually pretty spot on with a lot of your stuff, but we have no real evidence, yes day 1 stuff can come up later, but as of right now a lot of what we have to say is more or less baseless.

[killsdazombies]

And to further add to my teal statement, rob, yes, there can be leans, but we have no certainty whatsoever. Day one, in my mind, is more or less useless as it pertains to day 1. This does not mean day one cannot give us insight further down the road, but it means, that to me, we are doing little but talking out of our asses for the first 48. Thats fine though, any talking is better than no talking, as it gives us fodder later on, but really trying to scum read at the very start does very little in the moment.

[rob77dp]

Who wants to read a reason early reads lists, if properly handled by town as less-than-accurate, are beneficial to town?

Spoiler for You're clicking here if you want to know a reason:

It is EXTREMELY dangerous and tricky for mafia to give early read lists. I'm not sure if this is not common knowledge here - I figure it is but maybe not? - but mafia have difficulty giving early reads / list-of-reads (in my opinion) because it is a HUGE LATE-GAME risk for them. You don't want, as mafia, to paint yourself into a corner as to having wolf-leans early-game that you can no longer "frame" (Mis-Lynch) later in the game. Mafia want to stay super-flexible as to who they shade and target mid-/late-game.

(read list is in-progress... I'll be hoping to post it prior to end of phase, eh? )

[killsdazombies]

Alright, I hadn't thought about it that way. I guess that makes some sense. My issue is that, as long as you stay general and stay away from "hard" accusations, you can be relatively flexible still.


I still think the reads themselves have limited uses for this early day, but as I said, they are still helpful later. This only adds another layer of later helpfulness.

[Demagog]

Who wants to read a reason early reads lists, if properly handled by town as less-than-accurate, are beneficial to town?

Spoiler for You're clicking here if you want to know a reason:

It is EXTREMELY dangerous and tricky for mafia to give early read lists. I'm not sure if this is not common knowledge here - I figure it is but maybe not? - but mafia have difficulty giving early reads / list-of-reads (in my opinion) because it is a HUGE LATE-GAME risk for them. You don't want, as mafia, to paint yourself into a corner as to having wolf-leans early-game that you can no longer "frame" (Mis-Lynch) later in the game. Mafia want to stay super-flexible as to who they shade and target mid-/late-game.

(read list is in-progress... I'll be hoping to post it prior to end of phase, eh? )

Haven't you given round 1 reads and turned out to be mafia? Why the change of heart?

[iancudorinmarian]

Didn't he do the same thing last mafia and turned out to be civvy?