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Re: Elements Mafia 63 - by skyironsword https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=62991.msg1245482#msg1245482
« Reply #288 on: September 19, 2016, 05:04:01 am »
Rob, dd, Dema, tell me what you think about Ryli.
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Re: Elements Mafia 63 - by skyironsword https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=62991.msg1245483#msg1245483
« Reply #289 on: September 19, 2016, 05:15:12 am »
Pages 11-18:

I make it 100% obvious that I'm town and you still vote on me, Onion? You just want me to put you at the bottom of my list again don't you?

Kuro's almost a certain civ now, looking at his play.

Why are we making statements like 'obvious town' and 'certain town' on day one? Slow down.

And this is just more evidence that you guys suck at scumreading. I learned I was bad at it a long time ago, why do you guys keep thinking you are capable of it when the only reasons your town ever wins is investigative roles and rule abuse. Do any of you ever learn from your mistakes?

Everything I've done so far is normal behavior for me, so lynching me now is like saying "oh there is a 20-25% chance he is mafia so we better kill him." At that point you should lynch someone that you think won't contribute, not someone who can do you a lot of good when they are town.

1.) Only 4 people are voting on you, so don't generalize. Address the relevant people directly, because the others have nothing to do with it.
2.) Mafia (if you are not one of them) will want to keep their votes on you, so you cannot convince them. Anyone with a solid reason at this point is probably faking.
3.) If you are aware what a civilian you would do, then you would be able to do that as mafia too.
4.) If all else fails, hint us how good your role is. At this point, good roles are more important than scumreads, so if you have a better role and you're on the chopping block, drop a vague hint.

TLDR: Only 4 people are voting you, talk to them; Showing artificial townreads means nothing; If you have a good role and you're dying, drop a hint; and these people are probably worth investigating next night, starting with JCJ:

Demagog (4) - dawn to dusk, JonathanCrazyJ, ddevans96, CleanOnion

Let it be known that, while I like most of this post, I place a FoS on Sub due to one section. Here's why.

Sub has been very vocal in the past about how lack of town activity has lost games. Fair, right? I completely agree, it got super frustrating for a while. But I'm not quite sure this post lines up with that ideal. It's all in the highlighted sentence. He suggests that the people who have voted for Dema should be priority for investigation - however, my vote on Dema was to push activity, as were several of my other posts. I don't speak for the other three but I find this to be contrary to logic that Sub has displayed in the past.

It should be noted that Sub has stated on several occasions that he'll play differently depending on the game, so I could chalk that up to that, but...I'm still suspicious and I want it on record that I am in case heat comes up on him later.

A non contributing power role isn't very helpful, so it's the best option for now, I do not support a Demagog lynch this early, especially not after what happened with Rob last game.

To be blunt, rob's lynch last game was very poor on town's part. In general, however...if you look at the participants of most mafias here, a large amount of them are perceived as 'high level'. I cross reference Dema's list, because it is extremely convenient:

Spoiler for Hidden:
Demagog
ddevans96
RavingRabbid
CleanOnion
Kuroaitou
Submachine
Espithel
killsdazombies
rob77dp
JonathanCrazyJ
worldwideweb3
Linkcat
mathman101
Sera
Solaris
UTAlan
Lunaris
Ryli
dawn to dusk
iancudorinmarian
fabian771
andretimpa
danil
kirbylover314

I'll preface this by saying I don't mean to offend and I apologize sincerely if I do.

I'll also say that I don't agree with the order of this list, but assume for a moment that this list is sorted, from top to bottom, objectively in order of mafia skill. Where is the cutoff from 'high competence' to 'medium competence'?

Is it just Demagog, because I haven't played as many mafias lately and so I might be rusty?
If it after CleanOnion, because Kuro is perceived by some to be weaker as town than mafia?
Is it after Submachine, because some of Espithel's actions has come under scrutiny in recent mafias?
Is it after Linkcat, because mathman hasn't had a notable number of 'big plays' in mafias?
If it after andretimpa, because he's played in a lot of mafias and so is more likely to be very good?

...oh oops, there's only two names lower than andre on the list.

My point is that there's a LOT of good players on this forum, and because of that it is extremely likely that scum will contain multiple competent players, and it also almost guaranteed that town will contain multiple competent players, really no matter how many you consider to be at that level. Therefore I consider a player's skill to be of less importance in early-game lynches than many other factors. Gaining information is the most important thing and the amount of skill remaining in town even following a town lynch in day one PLUS the information gained from that lynch will always outweigh the negatives of lynching an experienced town day one.

fwiw this also shows that a nightkill list is extremely subjective, and as such it should only be used as a tool in a scumhunting arsenal, not the centerpiece of it.

So since both of these lynches are terrible, I'm going to go with who I think is mafia, because a tiny reason is better than no reason.

First is Ryli for what I just said, and because her calling for everyone to throw single votes around and then backpeddling on it was weird.

Next is rob for not putting down a vote, or posting more than once. It's even a dueling phase.

Last is Kuro for throwing a single vote on danil without even posting anything.

I'm not yet sure about the scumtell on rob because I know he is busy IRL, so even during the dueling phase I know his activity cannot always be frequent. I strongly agree with the other two, however.

Kuro, tell me why you voted on danil.

Conga line really. Although since there are five strawberries, I don't doubt that he could be a mafia (repeat mafia members can occur).

Still not a conga line, stop calling it that

I like this post by UT a lot, not quoting it because this post is long enough, but it should be referenced as an example of simple, pointed questions for later in this mafia when more information is gained - information leads to more information, even if it happens slowly.

Seriously what use is the Apple ability if the person you want to call out is applying spell check basically?

Is anyone who has terrible English talking normally now?

Sent from my PC using Espithel's Keyboard

Closing up the first half of this megapost on a high note, this post was funny and deserves a second read by everyone
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Re: Elements Mafia 63 - by skyironsword https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=62991.msg1245485#msg1245485
« Reply #290 on: September 19, 2016, 05:40:07 am »
Pages 19-25, Notes:

These pages were a lot of m62 talk, sunglasses smilie, and votes with little backings, so the well is a little drier, but not empty.

Spoiler for Hidden:
fabian771 (1) - mathman101
Kuroaitou (8) - RavingRabbid, Linkcat, Espithel, Ryli, Demagog, Sera, andretimpa, killsdazombies
Demagog (5) - dawn to dusk, JonathanCrazyJ, ddevans96, Lunaris, Solaris
Lunaris (2) - iancudorinmarian, Submachine
dawn to dusk (1) - fabian771
kirbylover314 (1) - danil
Ryli (1) - worldwideweb3
UTAlan (1) - Kuroaitou

Though I appreciate the love of targeting me every game, I'd like to play this mafia, rather than shitpost and AFK.

Great! What are your thoughts on this game so far regarding: rob77dp, Kuroaitou, Demagog?

kinda along the lines of "let's not lynch Root/Link on day 1 guys"

My point was that if we have no mafia reads for neither Kuro nor Dema, we can either wait for more information (no lynch, which I'm aware is not optimal) or we pick someone else at random to lynch (in this case I can point to kirby that hasn't posted yet).

Or you guys can just ignore me and lynch Kuro anyway.

Quoting these because my musings on lynching experience early are especially relevant to them

Thing is, I'm somewhat interested with a Ryli lynch - I don't like how quickly (s)he latched onto the kurowagon. Obviously Dema would as he doesn't want to kill Lunaris, and Sera and KDZ would have to be looked at, but...

I did it to try and get rid of the giant spike that happened with demagog and lunaris... Only to cause another spike.

However, I also very strongly disapprove of Timpa's trying to bargain and agree with people to get to another lynch. That always guarantees a civilian lynch and I refuse to accept that Timpa isn't utterly oblivious to that.

This post made me think. In fact it's still making me think so I don't have a proper response to it. Bring this post up for discussion again on day three, will you?

I know we're all mostly aware of Dema's recent games where he is "sort of" like this, but I feel a different vibe from his "don't put too much stock in my scummy-ish town play and such - it is just my style". While it is true his town game is a bit irregular for my liking it does NOT mean there are no variations in how his style comes out between town!Dema and scum!Dema.

My thoughts on Dema are very similar to this post, and thus my vote is staying on him. While we have very little to go on, I am comfortable lynching Dema this day for reasons discussed. Although I'm comfortable lynching almost day one if I'm honest - again, expansion of information.

Rob, dd, Dema, tell me what you think about Ryli.

I think her play this game currently leans slightly town.

She has recently returned to forums after a long hiatus, so as such she's unfamiliar with, at the very least, how the culture of mafia in this community has changed, if not rusty in mafia as a whole if she has not played offsite. I would expect a mafia in this situation to be more reserved, more passive, and following the leads of her scummates more. But she has the second most posts in this thread - a handful of them are questionable posts, and do lean the dial slightly back towards scum, but again that's not what I would expect of a returning player assigned to mafia, I think her scummates would have dialed her back before now.

This obviously invokes WIFOM but this early in the game that is really all I can offer.



Finally, two notes.

If these posts are perceived as 'trying too hard' and that is read as a scumtell (and it would be a valid one in many situations - see Kuro in m52), keep in mind these comments would have been interspersed throughout the thread had I not been away last night and today.

If there is a post that I didn't cover that someone desires my opinion on, or I'm wanted to elaborate on any of my comments here, feel free to ask me.
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Re: Elements Mafia 63 - by skyironsword https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=62991.msg1245486#msg1245486
« Reply #291 on: September 19, 2016, 05:41:11 am »
Oh, also, there's breadcrumbs in those two posts. Have fun.
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Re: Elements Mafia 63 - by skyironsword https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=62991.msg1245487#msg1245487
« Reply #292 on: September 19, 2016, 05:50:59 am »
Oh, also, there's breadcrumbs in those two posts. Have fun.

Why would you annouce that you have a breadcrumb when the entire point is to keep the breadcrumbs hidden aaaaa

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Re: Elements Mafia 63 - by skyironsword https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=62991.msg1245489#msg1245489
« Reply #293 on: September 19, 2016, 06:18:19 am »
Rob, dd, Dema, tell me what you think about Ryli.

Ok, but item 0 - why did you select that group to ask this question of?

Spoiler for town lean things:
We don't need to lynch Link if we want him dead, we'll just explode him when necessary.
^-- this leans town for me... mafia would be likely to not care about Cherry because NK is a thing.

Pointing out the Watermelon strategy doesn't make you town, it just means you can point out the obvious. There was no doubt what the watermelons are for.
^-- town-lean for this post, scrutiny of this manner makes me think it comes from town perspective.
* however, it was a bit piggy-back on the first statement in this vein from andre: link to andre doing it first

He's said we shouldn't lynch him because he must be town, so he wants to move the vote to someone who is just as likely to be town, anyone, just as long as it isn't him.
^-- this rings town in my view... calling out Dema's flimsy "self-confirmation" reasoning. (Admittedly, this would be easy for a mafioso to do if they knew Dema was town tip-toe-ing the scum/town line as Dema tends to do)

Spoiler for scum leaning things...:
We can 24 way tie this, get your votes in.
^-- this post from Ryli concerns me -- town should _not_ at all be interested in mega-tie results. The ensuing confusion is NOT a net-gain for town's game equity.

You're right. Reverse conga.

mathman101 (1) - ddevans96
rob77dp (1) - Linkcat
fabian771 (1) - mathman101
ddevans96 (1) - Demagog
Kuroaitou (1) - RavingRabbid
Solaris (1) - Lunaris
Demagog (2) - dawn to dusk, JonathanCrazyJ
Ryli (1) - Submachine
Lunaris (1) - iancudorinmarian
dawn to dusk (1) - fabian771
Linkcat (1) - CleanOnion
danil (1) - Kuroaitou
kirbylover314 (1) - danil
^-- this strikes me in scum-way... generally speaking mafia are very malleable and acquiesce easily to demands of other players. After all, they don't care who is targeted so long as nobody is "against them" and the target is not scum.
Spoiler for more pandering to popular opinion?:
We need to shift more voting power to someone else if you don't want to die, Dema. Who do you want to lynch instead?

rob77dp (1) - Linkcat
fabian771 (1) - mathman101
Kuroaitou (1) - RavingRabbid
Solaris (1) - Lunaris
Demagog (4) - dawn to dusk, JonathanCrazyJ, ddevans96, CleanOnion
Lunaris (4) - iancudorinmarian, Demagog, Submachine, Ryli
dawn to dusk (1) - fabian771
danil (1) - Kuroaitou
kirbylover314 (1) - danil

A non contributing power role isn't very helpful, so it's the best option for now, I do not support a Demagog lynch this early, especially not after what happened with Rob last game.
^-- scum lean here as the vote bouncing seems to just be whomever will get lynched and without much concern for where Ryli's own vote lands (as town it is a bit wreckless; as mafia it is manifesting the feeling of "anyone but one of my buddies is OK to lynch!")

fabian771 (1) - mathman101
Kuroaitou (4) - RavingRabbid, Linkcat, Espithel, Ryli
Solaris (1) - Lunaris
Demagog (4) - dawn to dusk, JonathanCrazyJ, ddevans96, CleanOnion
Lunaris (4) - iancudorinmarian, Demagog, Submachine, andretimpa
dawn to dusk (1) - fabian771
danil (1) - Kuroaitou
kirbylover314 (1) - danil
^-- my goodness Ryli - if you're town what is with the erratic Day 1 voting? Town is usually very hesitant about voting on Day owing to lack of information. Mafia KNOW who is what primary role so votes flow more freely, generally speaking. This is scummy behavior again in my view.

nvm we both had 2 posts at the time

It's either or, and we know you have war and your mafia to deal with, we have no reasoning on Lunaris' inactivity yet. Maybe we'll get you next time.
^-- having trouble seeing how this comes from a town perspective... 'next time' kind of has a ring to it of -knowing- what the outcome of a possible Lunaris lynch would be.

I'll remove from Kuro and go Dema if that's preferable. Whatever makes you happy.
^-- again just trying to appease another player. Later on, _if_ a player flips scum we need to review things like this because I think frequently mafia are like this about TOWN players more than other mafia.

Spoiler for neutral/null:
Even when players are confirmed by investigation and that information is put into code, mafia may understand your codes and town may not, then moving yourself into the open to pass information IDs you to the mafia. It's not through a lack of effort on the investigator's part, it's just really difficult.
^-- Hmmmm, I am conflicted about this one... On one hand it sets of alarms about town-should-not-be-against information sharing but on the other hand it is framed as cautionary only and not directive to not share. Null read from it.

Given all of this, I would lean scummy overall on Ryli given play to-date and state of it being Day 1. My vote may be on Dema but that is due to other important day 1 reasons related to reading later in the game given current state of the vote.
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Re: Elements Mafia 63 - by skyironsword https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=62991.msg1245494#msg1245494
« Reply #294 on: September 19, 2016, 06:42:01 am »
fabian771 (1) - mathman101
Kuroaitou (6) - RavingRabbid, Linkcat, Ryli, Demagog, killsdazombies, andretimpa
Demagog (6) - dawn to dusk, JonathanCrazyJ, ddevans96, Lunaris, Solaris, rob77dp
Lunaris (2) - iancudorinmarian, Submachine
dawn to dusk (1) - fabian771
kirbylover314 (2) - danil, Kuroaitou
Ryli (2) - worldwideweb3, Espithel

I'm going to put my money where my mouth is. If this results in a spike of votes changing, I'm going to absolutely mutilate someone.

If this results in a civ lynch, I'm going to absolutely mutilate someone.

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Re: Elements Mafia 63 - by skyironsword https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=62991.msg1245496#msg1245496
« Reply #295 on: September 19, 2016, 06:55:46 am »
Going to briefly assess my interpretation of the current and prior situations before this post.

Everyone voting on Dema
I saw this at the time but hesitated to post anything, mainly since there was nothing I had to contribute to the conversation, and I knew that I had at least another day to decide on what to do

- Watermelon Plan
More civ than scum, as it encourages people who haven't read the opening post to do so, checking that ability, and seeing if there are any others that may be able to assist.
Whether these were the original intentions of his post or not is irrelevant to an extent.

- Dema's Defense
Very minor note, but I believe his defense is more comparable to that of a civ than a scum, mainly due to how aggressive it was. Do I like how he defended himself? No. Not in the slightest. But it is more comparable to a civilian gameplay than mafia's.

Counterlynch on Lunaris
I mostly agree with everything said here. Vote someone who will be inactive, because mafia sure as hell won't kill them, and I also agree that if Lunaris is going to be active, then laying off on this counterlynch is also warranted.

Counter-counterlynch on Kuro
First of all, the note that not all cop claims should be 100% trusted is completely warranted. Mainly because I nearly got lynched due to a claim like that.

Other than that, the statement that Kuro isn't beneficial as civ and dangerous as mafia is probably warranted. And at this stage, we are just trying to get to the lesser of two evils. I don't disagree with the vote on him, but I don't agree with it enough to put my own vote on him.

Vote Tally

fabian771 (1) - mathman101
Kuroaitou (6) - RavingRabbid, Linkcat, Ryli, Demagog, killsdazombies, andretimpa
Demagog (5) - JonathanCrazyJ, ddevans96, Lunaris, Solaris, rob77dp
Lunaris (2) - iancudorinmarian, Submachine
dawn to dusk (1) - fabian771
kirbylover314 (2) - danil, Kuroaitou
Ryli (2) - worldwideweb3, Espithel

Nobody that I can particularly think of voting on for now, and Voting Powers will apply quite a bit to whoever gets lynched anyway.

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Re: Elements Mafia 63 - by skyironsword https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=62991.msg1245497#msg1245497
« Reply #296 on: September 19, 2016, 07:06:40 am »
Now Dema and Kuro are tied for the noose, but really none of them should be killed.

Dema was on the noose pretty early and people didn't bother to save him, which tells me that mafia gives jacksh*t about his survival. The only reason why Kuro is voted now is because he's throwing the game.

And about that... Let me put it this way. Mafia has limited numbers. They cannot afford throwing the game. Straight impossible.

I cannot even switch a vote to save any of them unless Ryli or Luna gets voted again. Out of the two however, I'd rather save Dema, because chances are he's more useful than the Apple. (plus Kuro is super busy with War)
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Re: Elements Mafia 63 - by skyironsword https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=62991.msg1245498#msg1245498
« Reply #297 on: September 19, 2016, 07:16:39 am »
fabian771 (1) - mathman101
Kuroaitou (5) - Linkcat, Ryli, Demagog, killsdazombies, andretimpa
Demagog (5) - JonathanCrazyJ, ddevans96, Lunaris, Solaris, rob77dp
Lunaris (2) - iancudorinmarian, Submachine
dawn to dusk (2) - fabian771, RavingRabbid
kirbylover314 (2) - danil, Kuroaitou
Ryli (2) - worldwideweb3, Espithel

This makes perfect sense from my side of things
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Re: Elements Mafia 63 - by skyironsword https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=62991.msg1245499#msg1245499
« Reply #298 on: September 19, 2016, 07:25:17 am »
fabian771 (1) - mathman101
Kuroaitou (5) - Linkcat, Ryli, Demagog, killsdazombies, andretimpa
Demagog (5) - JonathanCrazyJ, ddevans96, Lunaris, Solaris, rob77dp
Lunaris (2) - iancudorinmarian, Submachine
dawn to dusk (2) - fabian771, RavingRabbid
kirbylover314 (2) - danil, Kuroaitou
Ryli (2) - worldwideweb3, Espithel

This makes perfect sense from my side of things

Is this vote change because you want to save Kuro or want to lynch d2d?
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Re: Elements Mafia 63 - by skyironsword https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=62991.msg1245500#msg1245500
« Reply #299 on: September 19, 2016, 07:28:34 am »
In this moment I'm partial to lynching you all stupid armchair detectives, your senseless continued parenthesis shitposting and the fact that you all are trying to get a read from shitposting in d1.

At least I'm trying to get actual reads.
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anything
blarg: