Elements Mafia 63 - by skyironsword

[Solaris]

Am I misunderstanding the role?

Totals, IE they start the day with 4 invisible votes on them.

[Ryli]

Oh, not voting power, my bad. Carry on guys.

[andretimpa]

Oh, not voting power, my bad. Carry on guys.

np, I made the same mistake

[Naii_the_Baf]

Could somebody help me summarize from page 15 to now? I don't have enough time right now to read it all.

[ddevans96]

Could somebody help me summarize from page 15 to now? I don't have enough time right now to read it all.

I need a TL;DR, I'm not reading 11 pages.

tl;dr the vote gradually shifts from Dema/Lunaris to Dema/Kuro, lots of shitposting, discussion about whether Ryli is suspicious, UT fixes the cool smilie, I make two megaposts detailing what I see as the highlights of pages 11-25, more discussion about Ryli, discussion on Dema vs Kuro

If that's not enough detail I recommend reading my megaposts, I'm obviously biased but I think they consolidate parts of the thread pretty well, and then if you're still wanting more I imagine we can give you something more verbose.

So now you only need to read the last four pages. Better than 15, yes?

[Demagog]

Ok, finally read more posts. Let's see...

Last game I caught Ryli because Ryli defended me. I'm pretty sure Ryli has defended me this game too, right? If Ryli were mafia, would she do the exact same thing that got her killed last game? I don't think so... it's possible, but I doubt it. So I'm not too suspicious of Ryli at the moment.

My current thoughts are on Submachine and www3. Submachine because he's been defending me. I'm always suspicious of this behavior. I am aware that Sub likes to play his games without lying. Of course, if he's mafia he'd lie. I don't exactly want to lynch Sub yet though. I appreciate being defended and I think it's in his character... but being defended by someone puts them in my "keep an eye on them" list.

I'm suspicious of www3 because of how strongly he defended Kuro. I stand by my point from last game that mafia want to defend players that are likely to be lynched. He even tried to use his defense of Kuro as a defense for himself already. For this reason, I'm most suspicious of www3 and my vote will probably go here next round.

I'm also a bit suspicious of Rootranger due to him making the vote tied between Kuro and me last round. That voting behavior just feels strange. I could see a town doing it, though. And due to vote manipulation and the rule about votes being tied, I think there's less info we can gain from this swap. It's not like it could cause a no lynch which is mafia-favorable. I do think that if root rolls mafia, this makes me less likely to be mafia, as he could have kept his vote on Kuro to try to keep me alive. For this reason, I'm for lynching Root just to help clear my name.

[andretimpa]

Root is not even playing dude

[Demagog]

My point is that there's a LOT of good players on this forum, and because of that it is extremely likely that scum will contain multiple competent players, and it also almost guaranteed that town will contain multiple competent players, really no matter how many you consider to be at that level. Therefore I consider a player's skill to be of less importance in early-game lynches than many other factors. Gaining information is the most important thing and the amount of skill remaining in town even following a town lynch in day one PLUS the information gained from that lynch will always outweigh the negatives of lynching an experienced town day one.

I agree with the pink section. However, I would say that early-game lynches should be based on specific criteria:

1. Will this kill gain us information? - Typically on day 1 this is a no, I would say. But I also base my information on voting history.
2. Will this player contribute at all phases of the game? - Players going AFK is extremely common for this forum. There have been many instances of it losing a faction the game.
3. Is this person a likely target for removal from the game by some other means? - If yes, lynching them here is probably a waste. Better to let mafia do your job for you.
4. ???
5. Profit.

In all seriousness though, is there anything beyond the first three I mentioned? I can't think of any more off the top of my head, but it wouldn't surprise me if there are more.

[Demagog]

Oh my bad, I meant RavingRabbid. RootRanger, RavingRabbid, RR... hehheh.

[Ryli]

#LynchRootRangereverygame

[ddevans96]

Well I put him second because you guys voted to send him to the mafia championships. People at the end of the list are people I don't know. Everyone else is random.

I'll lead with my response to this and then shift to more useful stuff because it was pulling away from the game before - pointing out here that I have traditionally not been an early nightkill target even after becoming a competent mafia player. I was, for a time, a popular early lynch target because of a very strong perfomance as scum in a chat mafia, but not nightkill.

Spoiler for Hidden:

My point is that there's a LOT of good players on this forum, and because of that it is extremely likely that scum will contain multiple competent players, and it also almost guaranteed that town will contain multiple competent players, really no matter how many you consider to be at that level. Therefore I consider a player's skill to be of less importance in early-game lynches than many other factors. Gaining information is the most important thing and the amount of skill remaining in town even following a town lynch in day one PLUS the information gained from that lynch will always outweigh the negatives of lynching an experienced town day one.

I agree with the pink section. However, I would say that early-game lynches should be based on specific criteria:

1. Will this kill gain us information? - Typically on day 1 this is a no, I would say. But I also base my information on voting history.
2. Will this player contribute at all phases of the game? - Players going AFK is extremely common for this forum. There have been many instances of it losing a faction the game.
3. Is this person a likely target for removal from the game by some other means? - If yes, lynching them here is probably a waste. Better to let mafia do your job for you.

I agree with points 2 and 3, and I can understand the viewpoint of not wanting to lynch certain players deemed as high caliber in round one for those reasons.

However, I'm not sure I agree with the first point. I believe deaths will always provide information, if not immediately, then over the course of the game. In fact, I'll go farther than my original statements - in many situations, I would prefer to lynch or attempt to lynch an active, experienced player day one, because you get vastly more information from the interactions between them and other players, you can look at defenses, criticisms, connections, etc way more usefully than if the lynch target is inactive or less experienced. After that, the doors open for scumtells in a big way, and my priority for lynching would generally be scumtells, then inactivity.

As for current night's plans, can anyone think of a way to get the Orange targeted with a non-lethal and non-blocking ability without letting the mafia know who the Orange is?

I don't have a viable plan apart from the already stated 'hope we kill Soda and let Mango protect Orange'. I think the game needs to play out a bit more before developing such a plan is really possible.


jcj: You have expressed a strong dislike for nightkill lists. What is your opinion on the town/scum charts that were used in Link's qualifier and have been used by rob here in recent mafias?

kdz: Bumping my question for you:

What are your thoughts on this game so far regarding: rob77dp, Kuroaitou, Demagog?

[Demagog]

I guess I didn't make it very clear on point 1. I meant that basing the kill on information you will gain based on your current knowledge doesn't really work early on. The longer in to the game, the more information prior rounds can grant.

I do think we can gain a lot of information from the previous round. I strongly believe that RR rolling mafia will help to clear my name to some extent. I don't expect him to be lynched yet,  but it's something to consider.

I imagine that the mafia split their votes 2-3 (pretty sure there are 5 mafia this game). If 2 voted on Kuro or me, 3 did not. Or it's the opposite.  It's hard to say which they would have gone with, as I think both are viable options. A 4-1 split is possible but unlikely. If they went with that, it's probably just 1 person that voted outside me/Kuro.