Elements Mafia 62 - by Solaris

[skyironsword]

I would be honored to have some; for what it's worth, it was a nice party sky.

It's unrelated to cheese.

[Demagog]

You can move my vote over to Sera. At this point the I don't care who you guys lynch, as long as we go after the people that aren't confirmed, town wins 100% mathematically.

If we don't end the game now even though our victory is certain, when I flip town make sure you kill Linkcat.

[Demagog]

I just double checked and I was wrong. Victory is not yet certain. If you guys lynch me it will be 4 on 1 the vote after then 2 on 1. We have 3 votes after this round at most.

Once the ability to heal comes back up, Athena should role claim. That will give us the 1 more confirmed town we need to win, I think. I guess this can be done next vote phase.

[Demagog]

It may be 5 on 1 then 3 on1... can't remember if I included Kuro. That's worse for us if true.

[Demagog]

Oh and revealing Athena is pointless if Athena is already confirmed town. We just need one more person truly confirmed. Tried to get myself at least to lean so far town that you all can clearly see I'm town, but Onion seems to hate that and Link seems super paranoid about me despite all the signs indicating I'm town.

[Demagog]

Demagog (1) - CleanOnion
Sera (5) - Kuroaitou, dawn to dusk, Linkcat, iancudorinmarian, Demagog

Since no one else moved my vote over.

Dawn, to answer your stuff now that I have time.

A lot of my posts are while at work when I have a bit of free time. They are very quick posts and I don't really read them over. In regards to voting on Ian over you, you've made posts like your last one. Ian basically just said "sorry guys, war." That's a big difference and why I decided Ian over you. My only reason to vote on you is that you are an unknown and I want to see if my guess all those rounds ago was right.

That brings me to my next point: why reveal that I'm Yogurt if I'm mafia? Obviously whoever did that would be viewed negatively, but I revealed it anyway. No mafia that wants a chance of winning would reveal that info. I was under some pressure when I made the message board post, and chose your name because it seemed more believable and would get some pressure off of me.

As for forgetting the message board, I haven't paid it any attention this game. No one has been posting anything of interest in it, and all we've gotten were codes from Kuro. We don't even need to check it because Kuro doesn't need to use it anymore. His board post of who he targetted was pointless since he couldn't die.

And if you flip mafia, that does lower my chance to be mafia... since you'd be the last mafia :-p It wasn't a "shitpost," it's actually just common sense. If I were mafia, why would I anonymously try to get another mafia member killed when there was no pressure on them at all? I wouldn't even be able to claim "hey I got a mafia killed, I must be town!" It doesn't benefit me at all. Saying you were mafia would only be hurtful to town if you have a power role, which I doubt. I think you're either mafia or vanilla. A vanilla dying in place of me (a vanilla) is the same thing, and if you're mafia then great.

I definitely deserve some, perhaps most, credit for Ryli's death. My very first vote on Ryli that led to the tie with Link was what caused the tie that Link used to make his accusation. His vote during the tie round was only because he wanted there to be a tie, since he'd have died otherwise.

What do you mean it's basically all on me?

Link hasn't died yet because he's either mafia or mafia knows that he'll likely be the one killed in the last round if he's not confirmed.

[Linkcat]

I think I'm alive because Dema wanted to try to outplay me. Sorry to disappoint you, Dema.

[Demagog]

Told you all he's just paranoid.

Also, if someone accidentally messaged me something in chat that I think is related to mafia, do I have to post it here?

[Demagog]

Never mind, multiple people confirmed it wasn't about mafia.

[Demagog]

More defense stuff:

I was the only one that didn't read Sera as town. Sera said she thought I was "basically confirmed" town. Doing that so late in the game between mafias is a big no-no. Much better to keep clear of each other to avoid falling like dominoes.

Note that I'm bad at reading people, but I like to think I'm good at analyzing votes and knowing typical mafia-player psychology and strategies.

My thoughts on Linkcat - The fact that he's lived this long is highly suspect. I already covered why I think he's still alive. I can't read Linkcat. All I have to go on is his forcing a tie on Ryli and his over the top paranoia about me. Obviously he really wants me dead but it's hard to say if it's just plain paranoia or if he's mafia going after an easy target when a confirmed player thinks I'm mafia for trying to prove my innocence constantly. His vote on Ryli is typical behavior of anyone that wants to keep playing (otherwise he'd have died). His vote wasn't the last vote though, I think his made it 4-2 Ryli/Link. Interestingly, Ryli posted this:

I'll make a self preservation vote on Link until he can give me better reasoning on his vote, if he convinces me otherwise, I'll remove and take the fall.

We all know a mafia player wouldn't really remove their vote and die. I think it's possible that Link is mafia with Ryli and they agreed to tie the vote. However, Link's hand was forced next round to vote on Ryli since he supported the lynch the previous round and gave a reason for his vote other than "save myself." Mafia may have known that civs wouldn't allow a tie twice in a row and that one of them would have to be lynched, and they may have agreed to let that be Ryli. Link acting on Ryli early that round would add to Link's credibility and help him last further in to the game. Link's reason for voting on Ryli that round was due to the tie, which seems like a highly logical thing to do. But if Link's mafia, that's something they would have planned for Link to use.

Also, sky voted on Ryli the first time, but not the second. Sky voted on Kuro as a wasted vote the round that Ryli died. I was right about either Sera or danil being mafia as they voted on Ryli last. Dawn's vote tied the vote between Link and Ryli. If dawn were mafia, that vote would have gone elsewhere, probably on Linkcat. Which makes me think dawn is not mafia (I only just started going back and analyzing voting behavior, which is why I'm only bringing this up now). I also think that it's a bit less likely for sky to be mafia based on her vote on Ryli the round before Ryli died.

So that leaves us with Linkcat and Ian as potential mafia players. Obviously I could be wrong, but I think that sky and dawn's voting history makes them less likely to be mafia than Link and Ian. If you guys decide to lynch me next round, I think you should take a look at them.

[dawn to dusk]

It would have been quite interesting to see Link and Dema be the last 2 mafia, as if one dies, the other one leans super heavy town because of how much banter that has been going on between those two.

What do you mean it's basically all on me?

The notes I had were miscellaneous notes that I had on the recent days. When I said that most of the points were on you, I was referring to how it seemed like a potential target onto you, when it was instead me analysing situations. It just happened that what there was to analyse were points talking about you.

Regardless, the last mafia is between me, ian, sky, Link and Dema. Time to get some fancy stuff going~

[Linkcat]

So Solaris told me he would put Night 2 in the phase links like 4 days ago but still hasn't done it.