Curse you, rob. Making me actually interested in this mafia. I wanted to wallow in self-pity about the last game.
On my to do list - re-read last mafia from start to finish to get a better read on how some players play as mafia.
My reads so far (let me know if anyone wants me to give thoughts on someone I leave out of this list):
robReason for town lean: Very active, not just bread-posting, but prodding other players
Reason for mafia lean: Played the exact same way last game, no actual strategy stuff - only things that look like they help town without actually contributing much on their own
Reason for town lean: I'd be surprised if he rolled mafia again and played the exact same way as he did last game
Reason for mafia lean: Why not play the same way? It's just WIFOM anyway
Conclusion: Right now, I think he leans town. But not by much.
LinkReason for town lean: Rock throwing idea. I have a hard time believing he would come up with this as mafia.
Reason for mafia lean: If mafia started with one or both rocks, it makes him look town without really helping that much. Very interested to see if we get any rock claims D1, since I haven't seen one yet...
Reason for town lean: Most of his posts are, as usual, logical and seem to have a purpose. The scum read on rob seemed strange, but once he explained it, it made more sense.
Reason for mafia lean: "70% chance we're all mafia" is scummy. No way of knowing this early, but might be useful to refer back to that list later on if any of them flip mafia, esp Link.
Conclusion: Right now, I think he leans mafia. But not by much.
KuroReason for town lean: Making reads from the board and sharing with town in a way that seems to make sense/be beneficial
Reason for mafia lean: He could be making that up just to give fellow-mafia-Espi more time, avoid investigations, etc.
Reason for town/mafia lean: Same as Link's strategy on rob, but on a short term. Claiming Link as for sure mafia just to get a read on him (and other players) is generally beneficial to town, esp when not dragged out too long (see: Link/rob)
Conclusion: Right now, I think he leans town by a decent bit.
DemaReason for town lean: ...I don't really have any. Except someone (I forget who) claimed he was the most town leaning player. Still, that doesn't give him any credit in this area if it isn't a confirmed town saying it.
Reason for mafia lean: The "list". His excuses don't really give him much of a defense for this. Sure, I can tell that it's not an "expert" list, but that doesn't mean that it doesn't serve a purpose for mafia and 0 purpose for town.
Reason for mafia lean: Jumping onto Link's rock throwing plan. As mafia, he gets a lot of benefit of being a "part" of the town plan, without having actually contributed much to the core idea.
Reason for mafia lean: Jumped on Kuro's "hard claim" of Link being mafia without waiting for the evidence (ofc, there wasn't any). This kind of voting is detrimental to town (as we saw last game) whether he is mafia or not.
Reason for mafia lean: "You can lynch me b/c I'm useless" is a safe play by mafia. It shows that you don't care if you are lynched, making you (subtly) seem town.
Maybe more, but I read so much to get caught up I'm gonna stick with these for now. Also of note - if Dema flips mafia, we need to go back and look at everyone who said Dema seemed town and re-evaluate our reads on them. (True for anyone, but since I think he's most likely to be mafia, seemed worth saying.)
Conclusion: Leaning mafia to me. Throwing my vote on him as a result.
I think Ginyu would avoid being a quiet mafia two games in a row, which makes me think he's town.
WIFOM, right? Like, ofc he'd avoid it if he's mafia. So he's probably town. But if he's mafia, he can safely play that way b/c it'll make him look town. (I pointed this out about rob, too.) I don't think it makes them look scummy, but it doesn't make them look town, either.
