Elements Mafia 62 - by Solaris

[iancudorinmarian]

Espithel (1) - iancudorinmarian

ian,

Can we get some sort of supporting statements with this? A naked vote RIGHT OUT of the gate D1 shades as suspicious to me...

(really, this belongs at the end of my previous post)

That wasn't a true vote, you silly. I was just doing that because Espithel said "No" to the host

[iancudorinmarian]

Now for a more serious vote.

Kuroaitou (1) - iancudorinmarian

He seems awfully silent to me, maybe this will get him to talk, at the very least.

[Demagog]

See, RR was towards the top of my list and he got nixed. Sorry buddy

[Demagog]

Oh and while I normally don't defend people, the whole rock throwing strategy started with Link. I merely expanded on it. For now he probably shouldn't be a lynch target. For everyone but him and me, don't know that I have seen anyone try to contribute towards town.

[rob77dp]

Dema / Lc -

Separately, what do you two plan on doing with this unexpected (at least I was not really expecting to see it) turn of events where BOTH of you live into Day 1?

Espithel (1) - iancudorinmarian

ian,

Can we get some sort of supporting statements with this? A naked vote RIGHT OUT of the gate D1 shades as suspicious to me...

(really, this belongs at the end of my previous post)

That wasn't a true vote, you silly. I was just doing that because Espithel said "No" to the host

Thanks, noted.
(A vote like this from you being a "serious vote" is far from unprecedented though, hence my asking/following-up.)


Notes:
* higher within a grouping generally indicates more town-y among that group
* absent from the list means either I forgot to include them or (more likely) very few posts or "no read" (null) on them from me so far
* vv = I consider them HIGHLY villager-y (i.e. - very likely town in my view); ww = I consider them HIGHLY wolf-y (i.e. - very likely scum / mafia in my view); the list is a scale from vv --> ww where 'n' = "neutral"

vv:
none yet

v:
Espithel - some quick hit posts, some wall posts, all containing responses and plans that come off town to me.
Demagog - plans of action so far have felt pro-town; has always been town in games I've played and this so far does match his town-game VERY well.

n:
DoubleCapitals - volume of posts is good but content/quality is lacking and nothing of note to me so far.
iancu - beginning involvement here at start of D1 but not enough to read much yet (poking Kuro for activity bodes well though)
CleanOnion - null... volume but nothing good enough to read.
danil - responded 'OK' to the push about "new", so far.
Sera - mid-level volume and nothing of note to read yet, from my view.

w:
UTAlan - from UTA, I find his "I won't post much this game because I didn't win/perform well last game" a tad ~furry for my taste.
Kuro - The more I consider Kuro's activity level (very present on his other usual duties... absent this game) the more I am suspect of him. Silent/Kuro I view as tending towards the mafia/Kuro end of the spectrum.Linkcat - *sigh*, I pause to go to hard on this read yet... but for reasons about his pushes on my very basic pushes lean me this way.

ww:
none yet

Edit notes:
~ swapped Espi/Dema for purpose of more accurately reflecting my read/view (as I state in list note... it is a graded scale even within the groups)
~ added iancu and Kuro to the list

[Espithel]

As far as I care, it looks like they're both mafia, trying to distance themselves. Both arugments presented were just as weak as Demagog's shitspewing, and I can't fathom any reason why Linkcat would act thusly.
#Conspiracy

I'll suppose we'll learn today, though.

I'm interested in a response to this, Rob.

[rob77dp]

As far as I care, it looks like they're both mafia, trying to distance themselves. Both arugments presented were just as weak as Demagog's shitspewing, and I can't fathom any reason why Linkcat would act thusly.
#Conspiracy

I'll suppose we'll learn today, though.

I'm interested in a response to this, Rob.

Only a response from me? Why not from Linkcat too? (Or, reaching further, why not Dema too?)

TL;DR for the TL;DR - I don't know.
TL;DR - I don't know. It could be benign (town reading purposes) or nefarious (mafia ML shading purposes). There is a history between us of similar early game interactions which end badly for town. I therefore have reason to have it end DIFFERENTLY than before (i.e. - good for town) so am taking a less DEFEND ANGRILY AND OMGUS BACK AT HIM approach in favor of subtle basic responses so as to not upset this apple cart on N0/D1.
My response may best be summarized by my previously made statements on the subject (read below spoilers). However, I'll do my best to re-state a response here:

I don't know why Lc began targeting me for heavy doses of scrutiny on N0 alongside out-and-out claims of his assumption of my alignment/Primary Role. I know he and I have a bit of a history of this in recent Elements mafia games (recent for us at least) usually ending very badly for town/civilians. If I had to hazard a guess (it is quite hazardous to guess about Linkcat's motivations here...) then I would guess his motivation was to sus me out for his own read of me OR, more nefariously, to shade my role in the game for future ML purposes/attempts. I would consider the former as a town/Linkcat purpose and the latter as mafia/Linkcat. If this is an elaborate by he and I to somehow publicly fabricate a rift between us so if one is caught as mafia then the other is free-and-clear then I assure you Hollywood has no better writers and scripters than us. This is not the case and what you see unfolding from my side is real response and real attempts to keep it from hampering my attempts and those of others to solve the game for a town win.

Spoiler for Post 101:

If Rob isn't mafia we kill the cat. Seems fair.

From a well-biased perspective (mine, since I am the only non-mafia aware of my alignment), this feels fishy... A mafia/Dema would know which primary Lc and I both are and could be trying to set us up. Pairings like this early in the game, especially of the if-X-is-town-then-Y-is-mafia variety, are very unreliable and should be viewed as sketchy af where not presented alongside a reasoned case or argument.

I'm not even going to bother asking the mafia not to kill me. Athena, you know what you need to do.

Also, rob is mafia.

We're not going through THIS again are we? I think you are just being playful here because we KNOW it isn't a suspicious PM from sky this game (rules, yay).  8) did you have any argument to put forward with the accusation?

-snip-

Spoiler for 114:

Toss the rocks around and hope they get to Artemis. She can then throw the rocks to the people she investigates, so that if she's Nightkilled we have some idea of who she targeted. That means don't give rocks to me, or any of the mafia like rob. Artemis should still breadcrumb her targets. Fake breadcrumbs from other players will also help.

*sigh* we ARE going to have this again, Lc? If you are mafia, and town heeds Dema's advice regarding you and I, then you are playing very bad as mafia (we both know a town/rob will is not likely to live very ling). If you are town then I have no good idea why you would open with such a hard and unfounded claim against me?

Spoiler for 190:

Dema - There is definitely history between Lc and myself playing in to my defending myself a bit. On this forum, town is swayed quite easily and Lc is very convincing no matter his alignment. Therefore, I do not allow attacks/claims from him, no matter how obviously unfounded or un-serious they are or should be, to go un-challenged.

For a read on the history I refer to, an example is Mafia 52 by eljoemo (RIP?) replies #246, 263, 264, 273, [276 just for a chuckle I suppose], 299, 300, 324, 337, 382, 395, 400, and 401.

-snip-

Spoiler for 194:

Ooh, rob throwing shade on my reads by pointing back to stuff that had nothing to do with reads. It's not looking good for you.

Ha, I am simply showing why an early-game read from you, no matter how silly many good mafia players would see it, cannot go un-responded to. In no way do I want to be seen as trying or pretending to try to use it to shade your reads.

Rather, I shade your read because it is founded on nothing at this point and supporting by an argument of nothing. :-|

Spoiler for 196:

What you showed was not early game, nor was it a read. It's like you're not even trying to appear town.

Just because you see nothing doesn't mean there is nothing.

Trying to appear town does not concern me - mafia "tries to appear town". Town just acts town because they are town. That is my basis.

Spoiler for 202:

Spoiler for tunneling:

Navy
Hmmmm, some pressure on a newer player on D1 for coming out with this opening "I'm new" is probably warranted.

Let's look at all of danil's posts this game.

Hello everybody. How are you all doing this fine morning/afternoon/evening/night?

[Dema's Nightkill list]

I have no experience with Mafia, how did you decide upon this list?

Here we see that danil's not especially pointing out the fact that he's new, he's not trying to use it as an excuse, it's embedded in a question, which is good. He's even giving us information since we didn't know if he had played mafia outside of the forums. And then rob here tries to piggyback on an obviously joking accusation because he just loves throwing shade. You're digging this hole yourself.

You are better than this Lc. We both know it. Given it is N0 I am ignoring this N0 attempt to tunnel me by pointing it out as tunneling and moving my efforts in-game elsewhere. I'm confident it will get beaten into the ground enough later anyways...

Spoiler for 204:

Now he's not even trying to defend himself [false] Rebutting your advances as tunneling is a rock solid defense and not least because it is true. Rob, I need you to do me a favor. Tell me that you're town. You're not the boss of me! Also, this is requesting a useless endeavor...

'A favor'? Claim town? What good does that do and why do I owe a favor?

Claiming town is equal to claiming vanilla town which is equal to helping mafia (but not really because we all know every player pressed would claim vanilla town at N0) which is equal to not helping town. If you're mafia then i think you're barking up a poor choice for ML-target - going to have to NK me if you don't want me solving this thing (bravo to Sol for _NOT_ having a mafia ability that kills!).

[Linkcat]

Dema / Lc -

Separately, what do you two plan on doing with this unexpected (at least I was not really expecting to see it) turn of events where BOTH of you live into Day 1?

Ah, rob's first slip. You can see that he doesn't even take into account that he was just as likely to be Nightkilled as either of us, because he can't be Nightkilled, because he's mafia.

To answer your question rob, I'm going to lynch you, then I'm going to lynch Dema because this Nightkill screams Dema to me. It avoids Athena, the target was a really old mafia player from back in the day like Dema, and Dema's not the type to care that Raving hasn't played since Mafia 54.

Now one of two things is going to happen. Either this mafia will go down in flames since I got all our best players killed early, or we're going to kill 1-2 of the 3 mafia and be off to a good start.

Kuroaitou (1) - iancudorinmarian
rob77dp (1) - Linkcat

[Espithel]

Because link/dema aren't on. That and dema is ew.

[rob77dp]

Dema / Lc -

Separately, what do you two plan on doing with this unexpected (at least I was not really expecting to see it) turn of events where BOTH of you live into Day 1?

Ah, rob's first slip. You can see that he doesn't even take into account that he was just as likely to be Nightkilled as either of us, because he can't be Nightkilled, because he's mafia.

To answer your question rob, I'm going to lynch you, then I'm going to lynch Dema because this Nightkill screams Dema to me. It avoids Athena, the target was a really old mafia player from back in the day like Dema, and Dema's not the type to care that Raving hasn't played since Mafia 54.

Now one of two things is going to happen. Either this mafia will go down in flames since I got all our best players killed early, or we're going to kill 1-2 of the 3 mafia and be off to a good start.

Kuroaitou (1) - iancudorinmarian
rob77dp (1) - Linkcat

Yellow
My personality known among many here will speak for me: I would NEVER presume to rank myself among any perceived upper echelon of players that would "publicly expect early NK". Hence, my humble exclusion of myself from the small snippet you use here.

My point was aimed at the fact BOTH of you survived and the NK was some other 'third party'. Your reasoning makes some sense as to why RR-instead-of-Dema-or-yourself but it is far from the only possible reason. If mafia expects Athena is actively playing and sending in a N0 target then it could easily explain the RR choice. You say it yourself here: RR is an old-guard player so a very unlikely target among today's players for a protection on N0.

Orange
The town/Lc I know or would expect to see would probably have put out a reads list by now and be asking more than one player just one poor line of questions before subsequently voting on that "tunneled" player. Rest assured, lynching me now with this tunneled research you present is a bad town play.

Non-Lc players (eh, Lc too!): I request you go read my past mafia games here and see for yourself... do an ISO on my posts so far this game. I. Am. Town.

Also, your use of the singular first person strikes me as suspicious - "I'm going to lynch you, then...". Town goal is to collectively deduce likely mafia and lynch those players in a team manner rather than to allow a singular player to simply go around leading charges on one tunneled victim.
(Refer back to the mislynches I led last game. Those really should have been questioned at SOME point as tunneling because behind the scenes that's exactly what I was doing -- tunneling on the target I believed I had the best chance of convincing a majority to vote on any particular day.)

[Linkcat]

I have never made a reads list in any Elements mafia.

The people with rocks need to come out now, and remember not to say where you got it from.

[rob77dp]

Regarding the "history" between Lc and I to which I referred a few times this game:

The way Mafia 52 went down between Lc and I was bad for town. Really bad. Seriously, that exchange/interaction ended with us both utterly convinced the other was mafia (both knowing and fervently claiming to be town, obviously). Lc had been straight lied to secretly in PM by another town about things I had never said leading him to overstate his conviction of my being mafia which, since I was town and I knew I was town, led me to assume that his persistence on my being mafia despite all the evidence to the contrary (in my opinion) meant he just HAD to be mafia himself.

We were both town and mislynched - I'm sure much to the joyous amusement of the mafioso in the Mafia Pad.

I have never made a reads list in any Elements mafia.

The people with rocks need to come out now, and remember not to say where you got it from.

Green
So... ... you're just going from the cuff winging it on your amazing intuition which has never ever in the past ever had a ML of me occur at the hands of your poor judgement/read in the mafia game? I do not like the places this probably leads us...

Pink
This is a good point, Lc. Have you any idea what the plan is if we don't get two players coming forward claiming to possess rocks?