Elements Mafia 61 - by Linkcat

[rob77dp]

First, the real/actual/current vote for TODAY Day 4:
mathman101 {1} - Sera
Solaris {1} - rob77dp

Next, the support:

Let's try to summarize that day.

godisnowonline {7} - Hyroen, rob77dp,UTAlan, worldwideweb3
CleanOnion {5} - RootRanger, mathman101, andretimpa, JonathanCrazyJ, fabian771
1011686 <2> - Fippe94, killsdazombies

Then I voted, CO voted (both confirmed town, at least if you believe me to be town) and then Solaris voted.
gino then claimed, and people agreed that he was not a great lynch target (note that CO and Fippe agreed early, so it didn't seem like manipulation)
Espi says that math is still the better lynch, but 1011 is a more possible lynch target. math then appears, which makes 1011 lynch possible.
CO initiates the 1011 pile.
Solaris, math, w3 and JCJ join the pile.

And then we have lots and lots of bread.


And here's my analysis:
- If gino was actually mafia, it is very unlikely for Solaris to be mafia. He broke the tie from a CO lynch.
- To add, CO is a confirmed threat for the mafia so it would be odd for Solaris to steer the lynch off of him. Thus it is not likely for him to be mafia. Now before you get to any funny conclusion, this does not say whether gino is mafia or not. This only makes Solaris lean town.
- math, however, is the turning point for the lynch switch. So if gino turns out to be mafia, then it is also highly likely for him to be mafia.
- w3 was initially on gino relatively deep into the pile, but not at a definite lynch (which means it was probably not simply a way of playing safe) before switching to 1011. Therefore his vote is probably not indicative of anything.
- JCJ makes it final. He was initially on the CO train, though this might simply be a move for him to look town for switching vote from CO.

math is very suspicious.
gino and JCJ are kind of suspicious.
Solaris looks town.

The voting events and history for Day 3 (specifically around end-of-Day-phase) are incorrect (the count/total is accurate though, ignoring a double-listing of math but single-counting of math vote).

Lost in the end-of-day flurry-of-votes (1st and last vote-flurry posts, 7 vote-total posts, covering about 8 minutes) and breadposting (1st and last breadposts, 20+ posts total, covering about 40 minutes) is that Solaris voted (declared his vote onto) 1011686 BEFORE mathman101 did but Sol had some issues with properly applying that vote. During that confusion mathman placed his 1011686 vote. By the end of the day the voting ORDER on 1011686 shows incorrectly.

Properly it should have ended thus (red denotes a review of past voting history and NOT THE CURRENT VOTE for Day 4!):
mathman101 {0} - Espithel
godisnowonline {4} - Hyroen, rob77dp,UTAlan, Sera
CleanOnion {3} - RootRanger, andretimpa, fabian771
RootRanger {1} - 1011686
1011686 <7> - Fippe94, killsdazombies, CleanOnion, mathman101 Solaris, Solaris mathman101, worldwideweb3, JonathanCrazyJ

With this revised (and correct) vote history from Day 3 I think much of Sera's logic/reasoning ends up putting suspicion onto Sol (consider also the N0 use of the Lobotomizer-equivalent on town-Espithel which I have yet to settle in my mind as the action of a town/Solaris).

[UTAlan]

And just for transparency's sake, don't forget that I was willing (but too lazy when it wasn't needed) to move my vote onto numbers, as well.

[rob77dp]

mathman101 {1} - Sera
Solaris {1} - rob77dp

Updated my previous statements to sort of account for UTAlan's statements - no effect on my vote though, yet.

And just for transparency's sake, don't forget that I was willing (but too lazy when it wasn't needed) to move my vote onto numbers, as well.

Thanks for speaking up UTA - if I add that into what I posted earlier then it appears your too-lazy-to-vote-but-were-present-and-willing-to-vote occurred between www3's and JonathanCrazyJ's vote, like this? (again, a goofy color on a vote total from me is to indicate a PAST scenario being analyzed/discusses):
mathman101 {0} - Espithel
godisnowonline {4-1} - Hyroen, rob77dp,UTAlan, Sera
CleanOnion {3} - RootRanger, andretimpa, fabian771
RootRanger {1} - 1011686
1011686 <7+1> - Fippe94, killsdazombies, CleanOnion, mathman101 Solaris, Solaris mathman101, worldwideweb3, lazy post-but-no-vote, JonathanCrazyJ

With this revised (and correct) vote history from Day 3 I think much of Sera's logic/reasoning ends up putting suspicion onto Sol (consider also the N0 use of the Lobotomizer-equivalent on town-Espithel which I have yet to settle in my mind as the action of a town/Solaris).

[Solaris]

I'm the man of bipolar reads.

mathman101 {1} - Sera
Solaris {1} - rob77dp
worldwideweb3 {1} - Solaris

Talk more. You generally talk more when not involved in wolfy activities.

[UTAlan]

And just for transparency's sake, don't forget that I was willing (but too lazy when it wasn't needed) to move my vote onto numbers, as well.

Thanks for speaking up UTA - if I add that into what I posted earlier then it appears your too-lazy-to-vote-but-were-present-and-willing-to-vote occurred between www3's and JonathanCrazyJ's vote, like this? (again, a goofy color on a vote total from me is to indicate a PAST scenario being analyzed/discusses):
mathman101 {0} - Espithel
godisnowonline {4-1} - Hyroen, rob77dp,UTAlan, Sera
CleanOnion {3} - RootRanger, andretimpa, fabian771
RootRanger {1} - 1011686
1011686 <7+1> - Fippe94, killsdazombies, CleanOnion, mathman101 Solaris, Solaris mathman101, worldwideweb3, lazy post-but-no-vote, JonathanCrazyJ

With this revised (and correct) vote history from Day 3 I think much of Sera's logic/reasoning ends up putting suspicion onto Sol (consider also the N0 use of the Lobotomizer-equivalent on town-Espithel which I have yet to settle in my mind as the action of a town/Solaris).

The fact that I actually followed all that is impressive. Posts like these are why I have you leaning town.


mathman101 {1} - Sera
Solaris {1} - rob77dp
worldwideweb3 {1} - Solaris
dawn to dusk «1» - UTAlan

Hi dawn. What have you been up to? Why shouldn't we lynch you?

[rob77dp]

And just for transparency's sake, don't forget that I was willing (but too lazy when it wasn't needed) to move my vote onto numbers, as well.

Thanks for speaking up UTA - if I add that into what I posted earlier then it appears your too-lazy-to-vote-but-were-present-and-willing-to-vote occurred between www3's and JonathanCrazyJ's vote, like this? (again, a goofy color on a vote total from me is to indicate a PAST scenario being analyzed/discusses):
mathman101 {0} - Espithel
godisnowonline {4-1} - Hyroen, rob77dp,UTAlan, Sera
CleanOnion {3} - RootRanger, andretimpa, fabian771
RootRanger {1} - 1011686
1011686 <7+1> - Fippe94, killsdazombies, CleanOnion, mathman101 Solaris, Solaris mathman101, worldwideweb3, lazy post-but-no-vote, JonathanCrazyJ

With this revised (and correct) vote history from Day 3 I think much of Sera's logic/reasoning ends up putting suspicion onto Sol (consider also the N0 use of the Lobotomizer-equivalent on town-Espithel which I have yet to settle in my mind as the action of a town/Solaris).

The fact that I actually followed all that is impressive. Posts like these are why I have you leaning town.


mathman101 {1} - Sera
Solaris {1} - rob77dp
worldwideweb3 {1} - Solaris
dawn to dusk «1» - UTAlan

Hi dawn. What have you been up to? Why shouldn't we lynch you?

You might have to wait a while to hear back on that pressure-vote, UTA, dawn fell into a deep sleep at the hands of Host a couple phases ago...

Why another new vote-bracket-symbol!!!! aaaaaaaaaaaaaa

[worldwideweb3]

I'm the man of bipolar reads.

mathman101 {1} - Sera
Solaris {1} - rob77dp
worldwideweb3 {1} - Solaris

Talk more. You generally talk more when not involved in wolfy activities.

Sure, just been a bit busy with uni application and my hockey stuff. Sera, btw, i did confirm math as town. Reads coming later on, after i do RS3 

[worldwideweb3]

ok, so conf town (imo) is sera, fippe and math.

@Sol, why did you choose to ask me and not people alive who have posted less?
I also have a bit of negative feeling about root. I doubt his ability is even true, to start with. But then, his useful posts havent really been much detailed. Also, him staying alive till now is weird too, normally he would be mafia's top nk targets.
@gino, have you been able to confirm yourself through your ability?
@fabian talk more please

[Solaris]

ok, so conf town (imo) is sera, fippe and math.

@Sol, why did you choose to ask me and not people alive who have posted less?
I also have a bit of negative feeling about root. I doubt his ability is even true, to start with. But then, his useful posts havent really been much detailed. Also, him staying alive till now is weird too, normally he would be mafia's top nk targets.
@gino, have you been able to confirm yourself through your ability?
@fabian talk more please

conf town is not an imo thing, it either is or it isnt

If 3dubs = maf, one of his teammates are in that pile.

[worldwideweb3]

ok, so conf town (imo) is sera, fippe and math.

@Sol, why did you choose to ask me and not people alive who have posted less?
I also have a bit of negative feeling about root. I doubt his ability is even true, to start with. But then, his useful posts havent really been much detailed. Also, him staying alive till now is weird too, normally he would be mafia's top nk targets.
@gino, have you been able to confirm yourself through your ability?
@fabian talk more please

conf town is not an imo thing, it either is or it isnt

If 3dubs = maf, one of his teammates are in that pile.

Sera and fippe are conf. And ik math is town due to my ability, hence, imo. If I had called it conf town, then you would have simply argued that math isn't confirmed. also, you haven't answered my question.

[rob77dp]

ok, so conf town (imo) is sera, fippe and math.

@Sol, why did you choose to ask me and not people alive who have posted less?
I also have a bit of negative feeling about root. I doubt his ability is even true, to start with. But then, his useful posts havent really been much detailed. Also, him staying alive till now is weird too, normally he would be mafia's top nk targets.
@gino, have you been able to confirm yourself through your ability?
@fabian talk more please

conf town is not an imo thing, it either is or it isnt

If 3dubs = maf, one of his teammates are in that pile.

Please clarify this 'pile'? I see a list of three players you mention - one of which is YOURSELF, making me think you're attempting to share information and ideas but are falling short (either intentionally - we know what faction that is - or unintentionally - this could be either faction and is cleared up by posting more complete information). Can you be more specific so that information you are trying to convey is accurate and clear when we review threads in later phases?

(I might add that you're giving me the same vibe you had in Root's "1984" mafia #59... Start here and read back a little bit...]


At least your target is still in the game though, Sol, which brings me to:

And just for transparency's sake, don't forget that I was willing (but too lazy when it wasn't needed) to move my vote onto numbers, as well.

Thanks for speaking up UTA - if I add that into what I posted earlier then it appears your too-lazy-to-vote-but-were-present-and-willing-to-vote occurred between www3's and JonathanCrazyJ's vote, like this? (again, a goofy color on a vote total from me is to indicate a PAST scenario being analyzed/discusses):
mathman101 {0} - Espithel
godisnowonline {4-1} - Hyroen, rob77dp,UTAlan, Sera
CleanOnion {3} - RootRanger, andretimpa, fabian771
RootRanger {1} - 1011686
1011686 <7+1> - Fippe94, killsdazombies, CleanOnion, mathman101 Solaris, Solaris mathman101, worldwideweb3, lazy post-but-no-vote, JonathanCrazyJ

With this revised (and correct) vote history from Day 3 I think much of Sera's logic/reasoning ends up putting suspicion onto Sol (consider also the N0 use of the Lobotomizer-equivalent on town-Espithel which I have yet to settle in my mind as the action of a town/Solaris).

The fact that I actually followed all that is impressive. Posts like these are why I have you leaning town.


mathman101 {1} - Sera
Solaris {1} - rob77dp
worldwideweb3 {1} - Solaris
dawn to dusk «1» - UTAlan

Hi dawn. What have you been up to? Why shouldn't we lynch you?

I know I already alerted that this is erroneous but I see reading back I never officially asked UTAlan to fix/correct to a proper target or thought process/vote.  UT - can you take a bit of time and clear this up?  Thanks.

[Solaris]

ok, so conf town (imo) is sera, fippe and math.

@Sol, why did you choose to ask me and not people alive who have posted less?
I also have a bit of negative feeling about root. I doubt his ability is even true, to start with. But then, his useful posts havent really been much detailed. Also, him staying alive till now is weird too, normally he would be mafia's top nk targets.
@gino, have you been able to confirm yourself through your ability?
@fabian talk more please

conf town is not an imo thing, it either is or it isnt

If 3dubs = maf, one of his teammates are in that pile.

Please clarify this 'pile'? I see a list of three players you mention - one of which is YOURSELF, making me think you're attempting to share information and ideas but are falling short (either intentionally - we know what faction that is - or unintentionally - this could be either faction and is cleared up by posting more complete information). Can you be more specific so that information you are trying to convey is accurate and clear when we review threads in later phases?

(I might add that you're giving me the same vibe you had in Root's "1984" mafia #59... Start here and read back a little bit...]


At least your target is still in the game though, Sol, which brings me to:

And just for transparency's sake, don't forget that I was willing (but too lazy when it wasn't needed) to move my vote onto numbers, as well.

Thanks for speaking up UTA - if I add that into what I posted earlier then it appears your too-lazy-to-vote-but-were-present-and-willing-to-vote occurred between www3's and JonathanCrazyJ's vote, like this? (again, a goofy color on a vote total from me is to indicate a PAST scenario being analyzed/discusses):
mathman101 {0} - Espithel
godisnowonline {4-1} - Hyroen, rob77dp,UTAlan, Sera
CleanOnion {3} - RootRanger, andretimpa, fabian771
RootRanger {1} - 1011686
1011686 <7+1> - Fippe94, killsdazombies, CleanOnion, mathman101 Solaris, Solaris mathman101, worldwideweb3, lazy post-but-no-vote, JonathanCrazyJ

With this revised (and correct) vote history from Day 3 I think much of Sera's logic/reasoning ends up putting suspicion onto Sol (consider also the N0 use of the Lobotomizer-equivalent on town-Espithel which I have yet to settle in my mind as the action of a town/Solaris).

The fact that I actually followed all that is impressive. Posts like these are why I have you leaning town.


mathman101 {1} - Sera
Solaris {1} - rob77dp
worldwideweb3 {1} - Solaris
dawn to dusk «1» - UTAlan

Hi dawn. What have you been up to? Why shouldn't we lynch you?

I know I already alerted that this is erroneous but I see reading back I never officially asked UTAlan to fix/correct to a proper target or thought process/vote.  UT - can you take a bit of time and clear this up?  Thanks.

The conf town list.