Elements Mafia 61 - by Linkcat

[rob77dp]

I'm on phone and haven't had the chance to read last 5 hours' stuff as I was away on hockey. Could anyone tl;dr?

Last five hours, as summarized by rob and narrated by James Earl Jones:
* Espithel makes cases for suspecting JCJ and gino.
* Hyroen posts a thing about he and Sol: "As such, civs, my plea is not that you remove your vote from Sol and I because I'm trying to defend him, but that you at least shift your vote from Sol to me."
* rob77dp makes cases for suspecting Hyroen and gino and concludes gino > Hyro citing gino as the overlap between the two sets (Espi's and rob's).
* Some votes are moved, made, etc -- UTAlan stands firm in his vote on JCJ.
* worldwideweb3 requests a 5-hour TL;DR.

The current vote tally:
Solaris {3} - worldwideweb3, mathman101, Godisnowonline
godisnowonline {5} - Solaris, Hyroen, JonathanCrazyJ, rob77dp, killsdazombies
godisnowonline {0} - Espithel
JonathanCrazyJ {1} - UTAlan
Hyroen {2} - Fippe94, andretimpa

[Linkcat]

Godisnowonline has been lynched.

He was Sera, and also Town.
☆★☆★ (Passive) - As the High Priestess of the ☆★☆★ cult, you are allowed to communicate with your Goddess, skyironsword, outside of the thread.

Sera only has one role because I couldn't think of a second one in time. Sorry.

Night 5 has ended.

[UTAlan]

So we have 13 players alive right now, 5 of which are mafia. If the NK goes through and nobody else dies, we'll have 12 players left, 5 being mafia. If we don't lynch a mafia tomorrow, it'll be down to 11, 10 w/ the NK, meaning 5v5 the next day, meaning we lose.

So do your stuff tonight if you can and come let's kill a stinkin' mafioso tomorrow.

[Kuroaitou]

Moderator Comment

FGO NOTICE: Players are strongly advised to start voting in the poll here: http://elementscommunity.org/forum/forum-games/elements-mafia-a-vote-for-mafia-60/

[UTAlan]

Silly Kuro, you're dead.

(Insert bread here.)

[Fippe94]

I don't want to tell you "I told you so", but...

[worldwideweb3]

Wait, wasn't someone else sera? Or did I mix up info?

[UTAlan]

Wait, wasn't someone else sera? Or did I mix up info?

gino used his ability to switch roles w/ Fippe. So now Fippe is whoever gino started out as. Ginyu, I think gino said? Fippe is withholding its remaining ability to prevent mafia from finding out what it is.

[Fippe94]

Yeah, Sera was my original role.

[Linkcat]

So a good point was brought up, if Espithel is mafia, he doesn't count for parity. The rules have been changed to reflect this. You would also still have to kill him.

[UTAlan]

I thought I'd share this in case anyone else found it helpful. Do note that I am looking at it from a purely statistical standpoint. This ignores how scummy someone has been acting or any claims they may have made, except that I am excluding Sera and Fippe b/c they are as confirmed as we are going to get in this setup.

We start with 13 living players. Subtract one, since I know that I'm town (you can do this too, if you're town). Subtract another two for Sera and Fippe (subtract one if you're Sera or Fippe). That means 5/10 of the other living players are mafia. Given any two living players, they each have a 1/2 chance of being mafia. If one of them is mafia, the other player has a 4/9 chance of being mafia. Doing some magic (or math, whatever you wanna call it), that means there is a 78% chance that at least one of them is mafia, and a 22% chance that both of them are mafia. There is also a 22% chance that both of them are civvy.

If someone wants to check my math, I am open to correction. It's been a long time since I've done this kind of stuff for a grade. >.<

Spoiler for The actual math:

Let S be the set of living players minus myself, Sera, & Fippe. So n(S) = 10.
Let A be the event of, say, Solaris being mafia. So n(A) = 5, and the probability of A occurring [P(A)] = 5/10.
Let B be the event of, say, Espithel being mafia. So n(B) = 5, and the probability of A occurring [P(B)] = 5/10.
The probability of B occuring given that A has already occurred (in other words, the probability the Espithel is mafia if we already know that Solaris is mafia) [P(B|A)] = 4/9
The probability of both A and B occurring [P(A ∩ B)] = P(A) * P(B|A) = 5/10 * 4/9 = 0.2222222222222222 ~= 22.22%
The probability of either A or B occurring [P(A ∪ B)] = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B) = 0.5 + 0.5 - 0.2222222222222222 = 0.7777777777777778 ~= 77.78%

For reference:
5/10 = 0.5
4/9  = 0.4444444444444444

[UTAlan]

EBWOP: Let B be the event of, say, Espithel being mafia. So n(B) = 5, and the probability of B occurring [P(B)] = 5/10.